Prospect Info: 2021 Mock Draft 1.0, Post-Palmieri Trade

[Captain3rdLine]

Covid-19. They are a bad team that was torn up by Covid and playing almost every night now.

They have gotten 6 of 16 available points since they came back from Covid. They have 22 points still available. We have 10 points available max. It’s way more likely they finish ahead of us. Like the odds aren’t even close enough to to worry about unless we win our next 2-3 games which is unlikely given who we play. Columbus is the team we’re most at risk of passing and then at least a couple other teams before VAN.

 

[Emperoreddy]

They have gotten 6 of 16 available points since they came back from Covid. They have 22 points still available. We have 10 points available max. It’s way more likely they finish ahead of us. Like the odds aren’t even close enough to to worry about unless we win our next 2-3 games which is unlikely given who we play. Columbus is the team we’re most at risk of passing and then at least a couple other teams before VAN.

And they still most likely only win 1 more all year.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

And they still most likely only win 1 more all year.

Based on what, that’s a stupid assumption. They’ve won 3 of 8 since coming back from Covid so what is telling you that now they are only going to win 1 of 11 remaining games. It’s much more likely that we only win 1 of our 5 remaining games.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Ottawa and Columbus also both lose. Gained ground on everyone.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ottawa and Columbus also both lose. Gained ground on everyone.

Both in OT which is better but yes we still gained ground on them. These are the two teams we’re most at risk of passing. Detroit is another but they won keeping them a decent distance away. One positive is that Detroit and Columbus play each other twice.

 

[justHypnos]

I do my own rankings, completely independent of the other rankings. Though I pay close attention to the consensus, when it comes to Edvinsson I am more along the lines of Corey Pronman and Steve Kournianos -- the three of us all have Edvinsson ranked in the #15-#20 range.

That's fair but a few people being down on a prospect doesn't make him a reach when selected at the consensus spot. Button had Virtanen very low in 2014 but he wasn't considered a reach when he went 6.

I really like Edvinsson myself, he has all the tools to be a very good top 4 defenseman. Doesn't have to be a #1 defenseman. It's not like there's a #1 forward available either, outside maybe Guenther.

 

[StevenToddIves]

So you believe he'll be a first pair Rhd or no worse then second pair?

Absolutely.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's fair but a few people being down on a prospect doesn't make him a reach when selected at the consensus spot. Button had Virtanen very low in 2014 but he wasn't considered a reach when he went 6.

I really like Edvinsson myself, he has all the tools to be a very good top 4 defenseman. Doesn't have to be a #1 defenseman. It's not like there's a #1 forward available either, outside maybe Guenther.

I feel there are three #1 defensemen available in 2021 -- Clarke, Hughes and Power. Additionally, I feel there are four surefire top line forwards -- Beniers, Guenther, Eklund and Johnson. Those are my top 7 for the NHL Draft, and if the Devils get any one of them it is a successful draft.

 

[Ryaduesu]

I feel there are three #1 defensemen available in 2021 -- Clarke, Hughes and Power. Additionally, I feel there are four surefire top line forwards -- Beniers, Guenther, Eklund and Johnson. Those are my top 7 for the NHL Draft, and if the Devils get any one of them it is a successful draft.

Hughes
Power
Clarke
Beniers
Eklund
Guenther

 

[TheDuke93]

I feel there are three #1 defensemen available in 2021 -- Clarke, Hughes and Power. Additionally, I feel there are four surefire top line forwards -- Beniers, Guenther, Eklund and Johnson. Those are my top 7 for the NHL Draft, and if the Devils get any one of them it is a successful draft.

I think as I have watched more and more film on the 7 you have listed above specifically I have hashed out more tiers myself.

1a. Beniers
1b. Clarke
3. Eklund

So I personally prefer Clarke and think he has a higher ceiling but I think Beniers being a forward you can't ignored the transition being easier and floor being higher. Eklund I think is way more dynamic than people give him credit for and if he was 2 inches taller might even be rated as the #1 center.

4. Hughes
5. Lysell (you have just outside iirc)
6. Power

Hughes during the entire scouting process I keep overlooking how young he is and I just think he has way to much potential to ignore. Lysell I just see Bratt 2.0 but more of a shooter, I really don't think I need to say anymore. Power I like, but I don't love. He is undoubtedly an extremely safe and projectable defender. To me he seems like another Erik Johnson, now EJ is a good player, but if I am drafting first I am shooting for the moon.

7. Guenther
8. Johnson

Guenther simplified is a smart shooter. You can never have enough guys like him, but again I want dynamic and high ceiling if I am drafting high. I would honestly prefer a McTavish, Svechkov or Luciuz over him, three guys who could potentially be top 6 centers or for us the last part of a three headed monster down the middle. Johnson I like and would be happy if we drafted if we do fall, but again I would probably go with one of the centers to complete the hydra. I don't expect any of those 3 centers to go over Guenther or Johnson but I would strongly consider it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Based on what, that’s a stupid assumption. They’ve won 3 of 8 since coming back from Covid so what is telling you that now they are only going to win 1 of 11 remaining games. It’s much more likely that we only win 1 of our 5 remaining games.

The problem is that the Devils simply can't lose with Andreas Johnsson out of the line-up. His injury is killing the lottery odds.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's fair but a few people being down on a prospect doesn't make him a reach when selected at the consensus spot. Button had Virtanen very low in 2014 but he wasn't considered a reach when he went 6.

I really like Edvinsson myself, he has all the tools to be a very good top 4 defenseman. Doesn't have to be a #1 defenseman. It's not like there's a #1 forward available either, outside maybe Guenther.

I agree that Edvinsson's "consensus" position would be in the top ten. But his consensus position would also be below players you just stated you do not consider to be #1 forwards like Eklund, Beniers and Johnson.

Recently, I did my own research into the consensus. I took the rankings of several major scouting bureaus and a few of my favorite draft analysts. The resources I used were TSN (McKenzie), hockeyprospect.com, McKeens, The Painted Lines, FC Hockey, Sportsnet, Pronman, Wheeler (both The Athletic), Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects) and myself -- for a total of 10 rankings, to make the math easy.

Doing the math, this is an accurate consensus ranking for top players at every position:

C
Beniers: 3.0 (1st- McKeens, Ives)
Lucius: 10.5

RW
Guenther: 5.8 (1st - Pronman)
Lysell: 11.1

LW
Eklund: 5.9 (1st - Robinson)
Johnson 6.8

RD
Clarke: 5.7
Ceulemans: 22.8

LD
Powers: 2.7 (1st - TSN, HP, TPL, SN, Wheeler)
Hughes: 4.1 (1st - FC)
Edvinsson: 8.1

So, we can say that the consensus sees Edvinsson as just shy of the likely top 7 prospects, with their total of #1 overall rankings in parenthesis --
1 Power (5)
2 Beniers (2)
3 Hughes (1)
4 Clarke
5 Guenther (1)
6 Eklund (1)
7 Johnson
8 Edvinsson

Essentially, this gives us a pretty good idea about how the top of the the 2021 draft is going to go. I think we can pretty much guarantee that Power is gone in the top 3 and Beniers in the top 3 or 4. There's a little more leeway for Johnson or Edvinsson, who could both potentially be top 3 picks but also both potentially fall out of the top 10 altogether. Those middle guys (Hughes, Clarke, Guenther, Eklund) I feel we can guarantee as top 9 picks, and any of them could also surprise at #1 or #2 overall -- depending of course on who is drafting.

Personally, I like Edvinsson and Johnson a lot, but I'm not reaching for either of them at #4 or #5 because, quite simply, there will be better prospects available -- both in my opinion and the consensus opinion. Even if all three of the top D were gone (Power, Hughes, Clarke) and the Devils were drafting 4th, why would I reach for Johnson or Edvinsson over Beniers or Guenther? Sure, they are at positions the Devils need more, but I'd be taking a greater risk (Johnson) or passing on superior upside (Edvinsson) at a very high draft slot.

I'd say in this scenario, the answer would be to draft Beniers, and then use the Islanders pick (likely #20-#26 range) to take a player of greater positional value. There could be some highly regarded players there at the Devils positions of need, D (Ceulemans, Svozil, maybe even Lambos) and LW (Chibrikov, Sillinger, Othmann, Robertsson, Pastujov, Olausson, Rosen, L'Heureux).

 

[Ryaduesu]

That's fair but a few people being down on a prospect doesn't make him a reach when selected at the consensus spot. Button had Virtanen very low in 2014 but he wasn't considered a reach when he went 6.

I really like Edvinsson myself, he has all the tools to be a very good top 4 defenseman. Doesn't have to be a #1 defenseman. It's not like there's a #1 forward available either, outside maybe Guenther.

I think Beniers has Hischier-level upside, higher offensively lower defensively. Incredible skater too.

I also really like Eklund's game and think he ends up a better Gallagher, though idk if he has that agitator side in him but I was thinking of a small 5v5 scoring winger who crashes the net

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Who is a realistic player we can get in the late 1st with the Islanders pick ? I hope we take 2 defensemen in the 1st this year but not at the expense of passing up on a good forward (regardless what position) or even a goalie with the Islanders pick. Would be nice to take a gamble with the Islanders pick on a boom or bust type player. Our 1st round pick instantly becomes our top prospect , just hoping we land Clarke , Hughes or Power.

 

[TheDuke93]

I agree that Edvinsson's "consensus" position would be in the top ten. But his consensus position would also be below players you just stated you do not consider to be #1 forwards like Eklund, Beniers and Johnson.

Recently, I did my own research into the consensus. I took the rankings of several major scouting bureaus and a few of my favorite draft analysts. The resources I used were TSN (McKenzie), hockeyprospect.com, McKeens, The Painted Lines, FC Hockey, Sportsnet, Pronman, Wheeler (both The Athletic), Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects) and myself -- for a total of 10 rankings, to make the math easy.

Doing the math, this is an accurate consensus ranking for top players at every position:

C
Beniers: 3.0 (1st- McKeens, Ives)
Lucius: 10.5

RW
Guenther: 5.8 (1st - Pronman)
Lysell: 11.1

LW
Eklund: 5.9 (1st - Robinson)
Johnson 6.8

RD
Clarke: 5.7
Ceulemans: 22.8

LD
Powers: 2.7 (1st - TSN, HP, TPL, SN, Wheeler)
Hughes: 4.1 (1st - FC)
Edvinsson: 8.1

So, we can say that the consensus sees Edvinsson as just shy of the likely top 7 prospects, with their total of #1 overall rankings in parenthesis --
1 Power (5)
2 Beniers (2)
3 Hughes (1)
4 Clarke
5 Guenther (1)
6 Eklund (1)
7 Johnson
8 Edvinsson

Essentially, this gives us a pretty good idea about how the top of the the 2021 draft is going to go. I think we can pretty much guarantee that Power is gone in the top 3 and Beniers in the top 3 or 4. There's a little more leeway for Johnson or Edvinsson, who could both potentially be top 3 picks but also both potentially fall out of the top 10 altogether. Those middle guys (Hughes, Clarke, Guenther, Eklund) I feel we can guarantee as top 9 picks, and any of them could also surprise at #1 or #2 overall -- depending of course on who is drafting.

Personally, I like Edvinsson and Johnson a lot, but I'm not reaching for either of them at #4 or #5 because, quite simply, there will be better prospects available -- both in my opinion and the consensus opinion. Even if all three of the top D were gone (Power, Hughes, Clarke) and the Devils were drafting 4th, why would I reach for Johnson or Edvinsson over Beniers or Guenther? Sure, they are at positions the Devils need more, but I'd be taking a greater risk (Johnson) or passing on superior upside (Edvinsson) at a very high draft slot.

I'd say in this scenario, the answer would be to draft Beniers, and then use the Islanders pick (likely #20-#26 range) to take a player of greater positional value. There could be some highly regarded players there at the Devils positions of need, D (Ceulemans, Svozil, maybe even Lambos) and LW (Chibrikov, Sillinger, Othmann, Robertsson, Pastujov, Olausson, Rosen, L'Heureux).

McTavish, Svechkov, Edvinsson, Raty and Lysell are the wild cards to me. Enough people have put Edvinsson and Lysell close enough to 1 that I can see them going anywhere in the top 10. Svechkov and McTavish are certainly playing their way into top 10 consideration at the u18s. Raty I have no f***ing clue about anymore because I have still seen him in the top 5 and he is the most "natural" center outside of Beniers in scouts eyes.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think Beniers has Hischier-level upside, higher offensively lower defensively. Incredible skater too.

I also really like Eklund's game and think he ends up a better Gallagher, though idk if he has that agitator side in him but I was thinking of a small 5v5 scoring winger who crashes the net

Though Hischier is not a terrible comparable for Beniers, Beniers has Selke-type defensive potential, to go along with his 70+point, dual-threat offensive upside. Beniers is one heck of a prospect. Right now my comparison for him is "faster Jonathan Toews", because his off-the-charts compete/IQ combo harken back to a younger Toews but, also like Toews, a lot of what makes Beniers so fantastic are not necessarily qualities which land you in the NHL scoring leaderboards.

Eklund however has as much in common with Brendan Gallagher as he does with Zdeno Chara.

There is nothing in common whatsoever here. Gallagher is a volume shooter and net crasher at RW. Eklund is not small (5'10-175) nor big, he's a center and LW, and he is a pass first player. Eklund is a line driver who likes to possess the puck. He's extremely cerebral, and an outstanding two-way player. My best comparable for Eklund would be "smaller but faster Henrik Zetterberg".

If we're comparing Eklund with Beniers, I would give a slight edge to Beniers. Though Eklund is a bit more dynamic with the puck, Beniers is faster and bigger, more physical and better defensively. I'd say Eklund will score a similar amount to Beniers, but Beniers will be the better all-around player and more likely to stay at C.

 

[Ryaduesu]

Though Hischier is not a terrible comparable for Beniers, Beniers has Selke-type defensive potential, to go along with his 70+point, dual-threat offensive upside. Beniers is one heck of a prospect. Right now my comparison for him is "faster Jonathan Toews", because his off-the-charts compete/IQ combo harken back to a younger Toews but, also like Toews, a lot of what makes Beniers so fantastic are not necessarily qualities which land you in the NHL scoring leaderboards.

Eklund however has as much in common with Brendan Gallagher as he does with Zdeno Chara.

There is nothing in common whatsoever here. Gallagher is a volume shooter and net crasher at RW. Eklund is not small (5'10-175) nor big, he's a center and LW, and he is a pass first player. Eklund is a line driver who likes to possess the puck. He's extremely cerebral, and an outstanding two-way player. My best comparable for Eklund would be "smaller but faster Henrik Zetterberg".

If we're comparing Eklund with Beniers, I would give a slight edge to Beniers. Though Eklund is a bit more dynamic with the puck, Beniers is faster and bigger, more physical and better defensively. I'd say Eklund will score a similar amount to Beniers, but Beniers will be the better all-around player and more likely to stay at C.

I simply saw a smaller player who can score and gets around the net. Dont know many other 5'10 or smaller guys doing that but then again I cant really label guys playstyles like that; im maybe the worst person on Earth at comparables

 

[StevenToddIves]

Who is a realistic player we can get in the late 1st with the Islanders pick ? I hope we take 2 defensemen in the 1st this year but not at the expense of passing up on a good forward (regardless what position) or even a goalie with the Islanders pick. Would be nice to take a gamble with the Islanders pick on a boom or bust type player. Our 1st round pick instantly becomes our top prospect , just hoping we land Clarke , Hughes or Power.

The Islanders pick is very unpredictable.

I feel that if the Devils do not get one of the Big 3 D (Power, Hughes, Clarke), then they will feel pressure to use this pick on a defenseman, especially a RD. Corson Ceulemans would immediately become the favorite, and Scott Morrow would also be a possibility. There would even be a chance of a "surprise pick" of a Aleksi Heimosalmi or Jack Bar or Logan Mailloux.

Or, the Devils could forego shooting-hand and simply take the best available D, which could very well be LD Stanislav Svozil. I have talked at length about Svozil and how terrific a young defenseman he is -- he has really shined in tournament play and in the Czech men's league. I have Svozil ranked in the range of my top 10 -- higher than most -- but the people who love him really love him. His hockey IQ is probably neck-and-neck with Clarke for tops in the 2021 class, and he's a good-sized kid with terrific passing ability and literally zero weaknesses in his game.

If the Devils get one of the Big 3 D, then I'd say the chances certainly go up that NJ takes a F with the Islanders pick. I would add that -- after taking both Holtz and Mercer in the 2020 draft -- a RW would seem less likely than a LW or C (and also, the draft is thinnest at RW of the 3 F positions this year). Several very high-upside kids could be available, and I'll list a few at all 3 F positions (in no order) so you can familiarize yourself:

C
Fyodor Svechkov
Aatu Raty
Francesco Pinelli
Zachary Bolduc
Mackie Samoskevich

RW
Matthew Coronato
Logan Stankoven
Xavier Bourgault

LW
Sasha Pastujov
Zachary L'Heureux
Nikita Chibrikov
Brendan Othmann
Simon Robertsson
Isak Rosen
Oskar Olausson

I would add that if Carson Lambos were to fall to the Islanders pick, this would be very, very interesting. He has been inconsistent in his play sometimes and he's out for the year with injury, but his upside is simply tremendous -- I would say that he compares to a left-shooting version of Alex Pietrangelo at the same age.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I simply saw a smaller player who can score and gets around the net. Dont know many other 5'10 or smaller guys doing that but then again I cant really label guys playstyles like that; im maybe the worst person on Earth at comparables

I agree wholeheartedly that player comparisons are very difficult. But people are always looking for them in order to get a better idea of the player. So, sometimes you just need to really dig for the best one available.

 

[Puckclektr]

If we are going after Clarke and Othmann hopefully we can get their other midget linemate in the draft next year.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we are going after Clarke and Othmann hopefully we can get their other midget linemate in the draft next year.

Brandt Clarke is 6'2-190 and a defenseman, so I'm not sure what we're talking about here.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

If we are going after Clarke and Othmann hopefully we can get their other midget linemate in the draft next year.

As amazing as that would be I hope we’re not in a position for that next year.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Brandt Clarke is 6'2-190 and a defenseman, so I'm not sure what we're talking about here.

He means they played minor-midget hockey together.
Clarke, Othmann, and Shane Wright played on a dominant don mills team together that won the OHL cup. Roman Schmidt was also on that team

 

[StevenToddIves]

He means they played minor-midget hockey together.
Clarke, Othmann, and Shane Wright played on a dominant don mills team together that won the OHL cup. Roman Schmidt was also on that team

Oh, cool. I didn't realize all four of those guys were teammates.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Oh, cool. I didn't realize all four of those guys were teammates.

They had an unreal team. There was some other guys on their team that went pretty high in the OHL draft too. I believe they had a perfect record all season. Othmann and Wright played together on a line and put up insane numbers. Wright went 1st, Othmann 2nd and then Clarke 4th in the draft. Those 3 also combined for the OT winner in the finals of the OHL cup.


oh Pinelli is also in that video