Speculation: 2019 Trade Deadline

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I've said it several times and I'll say it once more: Ken Holland is petrified of making hard decisions. At one point we had the highest number of NTC/NMCs in the league. He handed them out along with far too much term and rich AAV far beyond what should be considered reasonable. This is yet another case of him not holding a line with regard to giving out yet another unmovable contract, a true Holland specialty. I also wanted to try to move Nyquist prior to the start of the season when it would be easier for Nyquist and his family to manage things like his wife being pregnant. At this point I hope Nyquist hits free agency unless we have Yzerman calling the shots. What will likely happen if Holland is still running the show is he'll give Nyquist 4-6 years at an AAV north of 5.5 million and of course he'll learn nothing and throw in a NTC.

Yeah, that seems realistic given that the details came out that he's asking 5x5.5 and the Wings balked at it and are basically leaning towards wanting to deal him.



I get being cynical is fun and all, but how about you pay attention to what's actually going on with some negotiations instead of just hamfistedly saying "BLERG HOLLAND GIVE NMC FOR EIGHTY YEARS!"

 

[Henkka]

I've said it several times and I'll say it once more: Ken Holland is petrified of making hard decisions. At one point we had the highest number of NTC/NMCs in the league. He handed them out along with far too much term and rich AAV far beyond what should be considered reasonable. This is yet another case of him not holding a line with regard to giving out yet another unmovable contract, a true Holland specialty. I also wanted to try to move Nyquist prior to the start of the season when it would be easier for Nyquist and his family to manage things like his wife being pregnant. At this point I hope Nyquist hits free agency unless we have Yzerman calling the shots. What will likely happen if Holland is still running the show is he'll give Nyquist 4-6 years at an AAV north of 5.5 million and of course he'll learn nothing and throw in a NTC.

My god this freaking about NTCs is totally overblown.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

While obviously I hope we can get something for Nyquist, I can’t blame a man for exercising a right he negotiated for in his contract. If that happens, I still wouldn’t consider this a bad TDL by Kenny if he can pull off any of these trades

1) Howard to Calgary for Smith and a 2nd. Sign him back in off season

2) Daley to Pittsburgh for a 3rd

3) Helm (1m retained) or Glendenning to a contender for a 4th (for Helm) or 3rd (for Glenny)

Helm at 2.85? I want more than a 4th for that. I've always thought Helm is worth more than most around here. He's the guy like Michael Handzus who holds down the minutes your stars aren't out there against the best in the playoffs. Basically, a guy who does something like Maxime Talbot where he wins you a game 7 with goals from out of nowhere because the other team completely shuts down your top line.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

I think that is his market deal, I mean he should get a slight bump over Tatar who got the 5 X 5.3. That is the natural progression of the cap percentage, maybe even a little cheaper.

I don't think it is unreasonable. I do like that Wings have taken harder stances on this with Jensen and Nyquist. I don't think either guy has had a really unreasonable ask, but the Wings aren't in a position to give these contracts with where they are as an organization. I like that we are seeing that as their position.

It also does indicate to me they are gearing up to go big game hunting. I know that will make some nervous, but I think that is the lesson Holland learned when Hossa skipped town on him and he went after depth in the last cycle. He isn't doing that again.

So I feel Nyquist is redundant on this team. I would rather have Tatar.
Nyquist has never done it for me, he is a good hockey player but just kinda good. He does everything well enough but is great at nothing. I'm of the opinion that he signs a team friendly deal or is let go. Market value is an overpayment for Detroit. Nyquist is having a great year, in a contract year, yet again. We have a large sample size on him and know exactly what he is. He is not enough to move the needle and 5.5M could be better spent elsewhere. Either in our young RFAs in a few years or added to UFA signing.
Again this is just my take.

As for the big game hunting, I agree. I think the Wings have their eyes set on EK.
I'm in the go for it camp. Go big game hunting! I just do not want to see a repeat of other years where we miss out on the stars and sign a Wiess long term. If we swing and miss, save the cap or make 1-2 year signings and try again next year.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I've said it several times and I'll say it once more: Ken Holland is petrified of making hard decisions. At one point we had the highest number of NTC/NMCs in the league. He handed them out along with far too much term and rich AAV far beyond what should be considered reasonable. This is yet another case of him not holding a line with regard to giving out yet another unmovable contract, a true Holland specialty. I also wanted to try to move Nyquist prior to the start of the season when it would be easier for Nyquist and his family to manage things like his wife being pregnant. At this point I hope Nyquist hits free agency unless we have Yzerman calling the shots. What will likely happen if Holland is still running the show is he'll give Nyquist 4-6 years at an AAV north of 5.5 million and of course he'll learn nothing and throw in a NTC.

Yzerman hands out NTC and NMC at massive clip as well. You can like his players more, but they have 10 of them including 5 of their 7 D-man.

Something like 30% of the league has them to some varying degree. The Wings actually have a decent amount of leverage in a bunch of theirs and a few void this off-season as soon as we miss the playoffs. But hey don't let the facts get in the way...

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

That's not unreasonable.

His actual salary this very season is 5.5M. His cap hit for the last four years was 4.75M. Nyquist as a full UFA is only worth 250k more per season than a contract that ate two RFA years?

I'm not saying he should be signed for it, but it's not a crazy request. Crazy would be 7x7. That would be one he should be laughed out of the board room for asking. If your initial salary ask is only 500k over AAV and 1 year too long? You're being perfectly reasonable. It's called negotiations.

The Wings also have ground for keeping his salary and contract pretty close to what it is now (4x4.75) because Nyquist is basically a 45-50 point winger who isn't overly physical.

I disagree. Anything other than a team friendly deal is an overpayment for Gus. He does nothing for this team that deserves the over inflated market value he will command.

 

[lilidk]

Helm at 2.85? I want more than a 4th for that. I've always thought Helm is worth more than most around here. He's the guy like Michael Handzus who holds down the minutes your stars aren't out there against the best in the playoffs. Basically, a guy who does something like Maxime Talbot where he wins you a game 7 with goals from out of nowhere because the other team completely shuts down your top line.

Helm+ 6th for second. He is very similar to Jensen .

 

[DetroitRed]

With Nyquist, considering his NTC, maybe he only approved about six teams to begin with and several of those few possibilities have already eliminated themselves by going in other directions. So, it could be a little bit of a buyer's market.

If I still have two interested parties, then this is either his last game as a Red Wing, or I very well might even scratch him from today's game.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I disagree. Anything other than a team friendly deal is an overpayment for Gus. He does nothing for this team that deserves the over inflated market value he will command.

That's a different discussion. I agree that the WINGS probably shouldn't offer him a lot more than that... but it's not an unreasonable contract. And if he signed in Detroit for it, I'd have a hard time being super angry about it. I'd rather they didn't sign him to it, but that's actually probably a little less than he could get on the open market.

 

[Kronwalled55]

I think the bigger issue outside of the money for Nyquist is the industry standard of 5+ years of term for any good pending UFA (and I don't think Nyquist is worth that given previous years production).

But that's probably another can of worms for another discussion. I just hate that it's the norm in today's NHL. 5+ years is a long time in the hockey world and very few of the players signed to them are worth the contract the entire duration. Hurts the game imo.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

That's a different discussion. I agree that the WINGS probably shouldn't offer him a lot more than that... but it's not an unreasonable contract. And if he signed in Detroit for it, I'd have a hard time being super angry about it. I'd rather they didn't sign him to it, but that's actually probably a little less than he could get on the open market.

I get where you are coming from and I can see how 5.5M x 5 seems fair for the guy, but I've watched him enough to form the opinion that in 2 years a lot of Wings fans would be sour on the contract. Gus has his best years behind him. Hes getting older and while his style of play promotes longevity his lack of physical play and diminishing speed is not conducive to the new NHL. I guess I should have said 5M x 4 is the max I would want him signed for.
I don't really even want him for the 5th year at all. So in that respect I feel like 5.5 x 5 is unreasonable.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I think the bigger issue outside of the money for Nyquist is the industry standard of 5+ years of term for any good pending UFA (and I don't think Nyquist is worth that given previous years production).

But that's probably another can of worms for another discussion. I just hate that it's the norm in today's NHL. 5+ years is a long time in the hockey world and very few of the players signed to them are worth the contract the entire duration. Hurts the game imo.

This will probably be the central aspect of the 2020 (21?) lockout. Contract length and escrow payments.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Yeah, that seems realistic given that the details came out that he's asking 5x5.5 and the Wings balked at it and are basically leaning towards wanting to deal him.



I get being cynical is fun and all, but how about you pay attention to what's actually going on with some negotiations instead of just hamfistedly saying "BLERG HOLLAND GIVE NMC FOR EIGHTY YEARS!"

Nyquist is not worth 5.5x5 based on outperforming on his UFA season. This will be added to the laundry list of bad unmovable horrible contracts on the roster very soon if we do this.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I think that demand is the (not unexpected) idea from Nyquist's camp that they want a last contract that's at least 5 years. Kenny can't offer that. Good on him so far for actually acting on it. Let's hope he continues, though I remain skeptical.

I do think it's interesting that Khan and HSJ are giving different takes here. Khan thinks the Wings are going to sign him, but HSJ seems to know that they aren't close. I want to say I read Khan's role as a beat writer has been scaled down at MLive. Could this be a product of that? Less access now, etc.

 

[obey86]

I hope the HSJ rumor that Kenny Holland/Red Wings won't give him a 5 year deal for 5.5M/year are true. Gives me hopes they won't sign him to a stupid contract if they can't trade him.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Nyquist is not worth 5.5x5 based on outperforming on his UFA season. This will be added to the laundry list of bad unmovable horrible contracts on the roster very soon if we do this.

Nyquist has been pretty worth his 4.75M the last four years. If you were giving him a contract based off his contract year, it would be 6M+, not 5.5M. It certainly wouldn't be a discount to get him at 5x5.5M, but it would be anything but immovable. Nyquist is a good player and that's market value for a good player.

The guys like Abdelkader and Ericsson are immovable because in Abby's case, 40 points was a career year for him and he's grown increasingly kittenish in his play. Ericsson slowed down and is impinged by injuries... and he was never fast to begin with.

I can get not wanting to sign Nyquist for that contract, but he's worth 5.5 based on comparable players.

 

[Henkka]

Ryan Leslie @ryanleslie73
Just spoke with Craig Conroy who said the #Flames are happy with their goaltenders and won’t be targeting that position ahead of the deadline.

Okay.

We can re-sign Howard now.

 

[DInTheB]

What I’m most curious about is when a team in on Stone says enough is enough and they circle back around to a guy like Gus. I tend to think it’ll be tonight when those conversations are had.

 

[obey86]

Harry Satori called up again today. Howard trade incoming?

 

[DInTheB]

Harry Satori called up again today. Howard trade incoming?

I assume Howard still isn’t feeling great.

 

[PullHard]

Howard + Daley + CBJ 5th 2019

to St Louis for

Allen + Walman + STL 2nd 2020

 

[waltdetroit]

This will probably be the central aspect of the 2020 (21?) lockout. Contract length and escrow payments.

Maybe the amount of bonus $$ compared to salary will be a secondary issue

 

[Henkka]

I assume Howard still isn’t feeling great.

Howard is feeling sick about a possible trade?

 

[Run the Jewels]

Yzerman hands out NTC and NMC at massive clip as well. You can like his players more, but they have 10 of them including 5 of their 7 D-man.

Something like 30% of the league has them to some varying degree. The Wings actually have a decent amount of leverage in a bunch of theirs and a few void this off-season as soon as we miss the playoffs. But hey don't let the facts get in the way...

Oh I understand that you see no difference between a team solidly in it's window to win multiple championships and a team that is one of the absolute worst in the league.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Okay.

We can re-sign Howard now.