Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Draft Talk Part III

[Hen Kolland]

Curious why you feel this way.

On one hand, I do think Hughes inflated the value of Caufield (a good amount) and Zegras (a little). But I feel very comfortable in saying at least 4 of the top 10 picks should be from the NTDP in this draft, and probably close to half of the top 15 picks should be. There is just a great collection of talent this year from that team.

Don't have any issue with them as top 10 guys, but specifically Caufield and Zegras, and Boldy (who seems to be fairly ranked in my mind) will end up around the back end of the top 10. Early teens. The upside is monumental no doubt, but Caufield and Zegras are very unique players with games that are heavily focused on one specific skill set, and the risk is much higher.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Don't have any issue with them as top 10 guys, but specifically Caufield and Zegras, and Boldy (who seems to be fairly ranked in my mind) will end up around the back end of the top 10. Early teens. The upside is monumental no doubt, but Caufield and Zegras are very unique players with games that are heavily focused on one specific skill set, and the risk is much higher.

If Zegras and Caufield are being overrated, who in your opinion is being underrated by Pronman? Personally I don't know why you would call Zegras a risky pick. He isn't a perfect prospect but he is a very, very skilled player without too, too many warts.

 

[Hen Kolland]

If Zegras and Caufield are being overrated, who in your opinion is being underrated by Pronman? Personally I don't know why you would call Zegras a risky pick. He isn't a perfect prospect but he is a very, very skilled player without too, too many warts.

I actually like Zegras, my issue is more of a concentration of them at the top with Pronman. Zegras is most definitely a risky pick in my eyes, but the reward is why I like him. I see him as a Mitch Marner type of forward, which is phenomenal, but it takes a lot of good fortune for a prospect to actually become that player.

 

[Frk It]

who in your opinion is being underrated by Pronman?

Krebs, Brink, Pelletier, Soderstrom, Kolyachonok, Korczak

These are guys I am much higher on.

Edit - Oh, I see why you asked this now.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I actually like Zegras, my issue is more of a concentration of them at the top with Pronman. Zegras is most definitely a risky pick in my eyes, but the reward is why I like him. I see him as a Mitch Marner type of forward, which is phenomenal, but it takes a lot of good fortune for a prospect to actually become that player.

If you don't like their concentration at the top, there are clearly other players you think should be ranked higher and driving some of them down. Who are those players? I am guessing Dach is one of them. Who are the others?

 

[Hen Kolland]

If you don't like their concentration at the top, there are clearly other players you think should be ranked higher and driving some of them down. Who are those players? I am guessing Dach is one of them. Who are the others?

I'm high on Krebs more than most, I like Dach a good amount. As much as I go back and forth, I think Cozens should jump Zegras. I would take Boldy, Zegras, Newhook before I would take Caufield. Caufield to me is in the same discussion as Podkolzin...I really don't know exactly what to make of them. Ironically, York would be in the discussion, as well as Broberg around the time that I would consider Caufield.

 

[Frk It]

I'm high on Krebs more than most, I like Dach a good amount. As much as I go back and forth, I think Cozens should jump Zegras. I would take Boldy, Zegras, Newhook before I would take Caufield. Caufield to me is in the same discussion as Podkolzin...I really don't know exactly what to make of them. Ironically, York would be in the discussion, as well as Broberg around the time that I would consider Caufield.

I’m not on the Caufield hype train as much as others, either. I have him late teens personally. That is a bet I have to hedge, despite the boatload of goals we saw this year.

Good thing is we will post a draft board thread soon so we can all start to see where we rank players.

 

[jkutswings]

You must use your own picks for offer sheets, but I like the way you think! Also it would take 4 1sts for Point.

Good to know. But if he's getting paid more than $10.5M AAV, let somebody else foot that bill, and I'll keep the picks.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I'm high on Krebs more than most, I like Dach a good amount. As much as I go back and forth, I think Cozens should jump Zegras. I would take Boldy, Zegras, Newhook before I would take Caufield. Caufield to me is in the same discussion as Podkolzin...I really don't know exactly what to make of them. Ironically, York would be in the discussion, as well as Broberg around the time that I would consider Caufield.

I understand that position on Caufield. I think he is very talented but he is not what I personally am after in this draft. Good player, just prefer others who will be available. You need to appreciate how well he fits Pronman's worldview. I would have no issues with Zegras at 6 and actually think that there is a good chance he is gone before we pick. 3-10 is super close. I keep looking for material differences and keep coming up empty.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I really enjoy Pronman's rankings, he offers unique perspective compared to many draft analysts. It's a refreshing change in perspective.

 

[Henkka]

Zegras really sounding better and better on my eyes.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I really don't understand people that have problems with Dach's pace of play liking Zegras more. He slows the game down and tries low percentage plays a lot. He also has to become a more willing shooter at the NHL level than he has been as a junior. I see a tremendous ceiling but real limitations in his game, I think Pronman and the guys over at the Winged Wheel Podcast are too high on him. Especially in a draft where most that like him want to wax poetically about his playmaking ability but generally don't like Dach who flashes higher ability in that area in my opinion. It confuses me a little.

I won't hate it, but he is a slighter left-handed slow the pace of play center. I much prefer the larger right handed option especially for fit with our group.

 

[The Zermanator]

Out of the realistic options at #6, this is my ranking:
Byram
Turcotte
Dach
Zegras
Cozens

I imagine Byram and Turcotte are gone by the time the Wings pick, but hopefully a couple teams go off board and one of them falls to us (preferably Byram). I think we probably end up with Dach but it's tough to say without knowing much about Yzerman and what he values as a GM.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I really enjoy Pronman's rankings, he offers unique perspective compared to many draft analysts. It's a refreshing change in perspective.

Pronman also usually takes the time to answer questions as well. He is probably my favorite prospect guy. We disagree on stuff but I appreciate the way he grinds to get his final list.

Not going to lie, I love that he tiered Hughes and Kakko differently, he is in for his Flyers organizational ranking last year level of backlash there haha.

 

[Frk It]

I really don't understand people that have problems with Dach's pace of play liking Zegras more. He slows the game down and tries low percentage plays a lot. He also has to become a more willing shooter at the NHL level than he has been as a junior. I see a tremendous ceiling but real limitations in his game, I think Pronman and the guys over at the Winged Wheel Podcast are too high on him. Especially in a draft where most that like him want to wax poetically about his playmaking ability but generally don't like Dach who flashes higher ability in that area in my opinion. It confuses me a little.

I won't hate it, but he is a slighter left-handed slow the pace of play center. I much prefer the larger right handed option especially for fit with our group.

Zegras isn't a materially better skater, either. I have some concerns Zegras becomes a perimeter player at the next level. I do wonder if him and Ryan Suzuki switched situations how the two are perceived. I think they have a lot of similarities as players.

I give Krebs a slight advantage over both (Dach & Zegras) due to having the playmaking ability plus a clear edge in skating. Have them all ranked really closely, though. Might do some re-arranging still, but my list is getting pretty close to set.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I really don't understand people that have problems with Dach's pace of play liking Zegras more. He slows the game down and tries low percentage plays a lot. He also has to become a more willing shooter at the NHL level than he has been as a junior. I see a tremendous ceiling but real limitations in his game, I think Pronman and the guys over at the Winged Wheel Podcast are too high on him. Especially in a draft where most that like him want to wax poetically about his playmaking ability but generally don't like Dach who flashes higher ability in that area in my opinion. It confuses me a little.

I won't hate it, but he is a slighter left-handed slow the pace of play center. I much prefer the larger right handed option especially for fit with our group.

I can certainly see why people prefer Dach to Zegras. Having said that, the fundamental advantage Zegras has over Dach is his edge work and zone entry ability. I don't think Dach is a poor skater, but in this regard I think Zegras is second only to Hughes. To be an offense-driving player (setting up one timers, working behind the net, operating the power play from the half boards), you've got to be effective at entering the offensive zone. Zegras' skating ability makes him far more effective in controlled zone entries and the dump in chase entry. Neutral zone systems tighten up significantly at higher levels, and I question Dach's ability to adapt there.

For what it's worth, I do think Dach has a much better shot, but I also think Zegras has much better vision, and handedness doesn't matter to me at all really, especially among forwards.

 

[Henkka]

Pronman released his rankings today. The 2 lists I put the most stock into are the rankings from hockeyprospect.com and Bob Mckenzie's list, but I thought there were some interesting comments in here.

I really like Future Considerations and Pronman (with a certain filter)

Full article: Pronman's 2019 NHL Draft Board: Top 107 prospects

Pronman's grouping:

Special prospect
--------------------
1. C Jack Hughes

Special/Elite bubble
2. RW Kaapo Kakko

Elite prospect
--------------------
3. C Alex Turcotte
4. D Bowen Byram
5. RW Cole Caufield

Elite/High-end bubble
-------------------------
6. C Trevor Zegras
7. C Dylan Cozens

High-end prospect
--------------------------
8. LW Matthew Boldy
9. D Philip Broberg
10. C Kirby Dach
11. C Alex Newhook
12. RW Vasili Podkolzin

High-end/Very good bubble
---------------------------
13. C Peyton Krebs
14. LW Arthur Kaliyev
15. C Ryan Suzuki
16. D Cam York

Very good prospect
6 players

Very good/Legit bubble
10 players

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I can certainly see why people prefer Dach to Zegras. Having said that, the fundamental advantage Zegras has over Dach is his edge work and zone entry ability. I don't think Dach is a poor skater, but in this regard I think Zegras is second only to Hughes. To be an offense-driving player (setting up one timers, working behind the net, operating the power play from the half boards), you've got to be effective at entering the offensive zone. Zegras' skating ability makes him far more effective in controlled zone entries and the dump in chase entry. Neutral zone systems tighten up significantly at higher levels, and I question Dach's ability to adapt there.

For what it's worth, I do think Dach has a much better shot, but I also think Zegras has much better vision, and handedness doesn't matter to me at all really, especially among forwards.

Zegras a better skater than Turcotte? This is the first I've heard of this.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I really don't understand people that have problems with Dach's pace of play liking Zegras more. He slows the game down and tries low percentage plays a lot. He also has to become a more willing shooter at the NHL level than he has been as a junior. I see a tremendous ceiling but real limitations in his game, I think Pronman and the guys over at the Winged Wheel Podcast are too high on him. Especially in a draft where most that like him want to wax poetically about his playmaking ability but generally don't like Dach who flashes higher ability in that area in my opinion. It confuses me a little.

I won't hate it, but he is a slighter left-handed slow the pace of play center. I much prefer the larger right handed option especially for fit with our group.

Zegras isn't a materially better skater, either. I have some concerns Zegras becomes a perimeter player at the next level. I do wonder if him and Ryan Suzuki switched situations how the two are perceived. I think they have a lot of similarities as players.

I give Krebs a slight advantage over both (Dach & Zegras) due to having the playmaking ability plus a clear edge in skating. Have them all ranked really closely, though. Might do some re-arranging still, but my list is getting pretty close to set.

I can certainly see why people prefer Dach to Zegras. Having said that, the fundamental advantage Zegras has over Dach is his edge work and zone entry ability. I don't think Dach is a poor skater, but in this regard I think Zegras is second only to Hughes. To be an offense-driving player (setting up one timers, working behind the net, operating the power play from the half boards), you've got to be effective at entering the offensive zone. Zegras' skating ability makes him far more effective in controlled zone entries and the dump in chase entry. Neutral zone systems tighten up significantly at higher levels, and I question Dach's ability to adapt there.

For what it's worth, I do think Dach has a much better shot, but I also think Zegras has much better vision, and handedness doesn't matter to me at all really, especially among forwards.

I think both of them have really good edgework. Like I tend to think Dach’s edgework regardless of his size is a plus attribute. Zegras is a touch below Krebs or Turcotte in skating for the smaller guys, because of the straight line speed. The plus edgework and his smaller frame makes Zegras a candidate for the term “slippery” and might be better with zone entry, but in the offensive zone the concerns Frk It made about becoming a perimeter player are absolutely real. Dach's edgework and his size should make him an absolute nightmare down low with the puck because he has the length and size to lean on you or cut on a dime to create time and space.

In my eyes, Dach’s playmaking is predicated on being an smart player who can process a play, identify and convert chances at a high percentage, but probably a lower % of his chances created will be high danger when compared to Zegras. But at the same time Zegras' overall conversion rate is going to be lower because of the high risk nature of what he attempts. The best way I can think to describe their playmaking attributes in terms surely have been used before, but:
Dach: poised and calculated
Zegras: creative and brash

And then there's Krebs, who I think is more similar to Dach in terms of his playmaking style, albeit not quite as high of a tier, but also has the engine that never goes out, and the high end skating, like that of Turcotte. Love Krebs as a prospect because of that combination.

 

[Ezekial]

Zegras a better skater than Turcotte? This is the first I've heard of this.

I may have him wrong, but I think he was specifically saying he's second to Hughes in edge work.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I really don't understand people that have problems with Dach's pace of play liking Zegras more. He slows the game down and tries low percentage plays a lot. He also has to become a more willing shooter at the NHL level than he has been as a junior. I see a tremendous ceiling but real limitations in his game, I think Pronman and the guys over at the Winged Wheel Podcast are too high on him. Especially in a draft where most that like him want to wax poetically about his playmaking ability but generally don't like Dach who flashes higher ability in that area in my opinion. It confuses me a little.

I won't hate it, but he is a slighter left-handed slow the pace of play center. I much prefer the larger right handed option especially for fit with our group.

Zegras and Dach currently have the least translatable games of that group expected to go in the top 10. They will need to change the way they play more than any of the others to be successful in the pro game. Dach is going to need to find some other ways to attach the middle of the ice besides perimeter passing (this is as much of an issue with Dach as it is with Zegras if you watch closely) and Zegras is going to need to cut out the immature fluff from his game. Possession of the puck is just too valuable at the next level to do what he tries too often now.

The upside of these two, however, is that they have massive, massive ceilings and a ton of pure hockey skill.

 

[lhsgolf19]

New TSN Mock

https://www.tsn.ca/kakko-closes-gap-on-hughes-in-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-4-0-1.1309174

NJ - Hughes
NYR - Kakko
CHI - Byram
COL - Dach
LA - Caufield
DET - Cozens
BUF - Turcotte
EDM - Boldy
ANA - Zegras
VAN - Podkolzin

We better not pass on Turcotte for Cozens lol

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Zegras and Dach currently have the least translatable games of that group expected to go in the top 10. They will need to change the way they play more than any of the others to be successful in the pro game. Dach is going to need to find some other ways to attach the middle of the ice besides perimeter passing (this is as much of an issue with Dach as it is with Zegras if you watch closely) and Zegras is going to need to cut out the immature fluff from his game. Possession of the puck is just too valuable at the next level to do what he tries too often now.

The upside of these two, however, is that they have massive, massive ceilings and a ton of pure hockey skill.

When you watch the finals this next week watch how often St. Louis and Boston play behind the goal line. Yes they are terrific in transition but that the cycle has left the NHL is a fairly big myth for me. What Dach does puck possession wise and on the half wall and behind the net while identifying teammates fits in every era.

There are things he will need to improve and I agree the ceilings on most top of the draft guys are actually generally enormous though unlikely to happen. I champion Broberg in terms of this draft in that way, if he hits his ceiling he can be a Seth Jones type but he has to actually do it.

In any event while slighter players have enjoyed more success in the modern NHL that doesn't course correct out that size can still have a heavy impact on the game, especially once you're in playoff hockey in my opinion. Also, I have watched the market correction on this a few times in terms of ebb and flows of playing style. Yes skill and speed are at a premium, but it is a nightmare to check a Blake Wheeler, Jamie Benn or Ryan Getzlaf. I think Dach skates very well for a big man and he should get more explosion and leg drive as he fills out. That is his down characteristic though is to hit his ceiling he will need to do that. Still I remain pretty high on him as he rounds out my top 5. He is a projection pick but I like his fit to our current group a lot as well.

 

[raymond23]

When you watch the finals this next week watch how often St. Louis and Boston play behind the goal line. Yes they are terrific in transition but that the cycle has left the NHL is a fairly big myth for me. What Dach does puck possession wise and on the half wall and behind the net while identifying teammates fits in every era.

There are things he will need to improve and I agree the ceilings on most top of the draft guys are actually generally enormous though unlikely to happen. I champion Broberg in terms of this draft in that way, if he hits his ceiling he can be a Seth Jones type but he has to actually do it.

In any event while slighter players have enjoyed more success in the modern NHL that doesn't course correct out that size can still have a heavy impact on the game, especially once you're in playoff hockey in my opinion. Also, I have watched the market correction on this a few times in terms of ebb and flows of playing style. Yes skill and speed are at a premium, but it is a nightmare to check a Blake Wheeler, Jamie Benn or Ryan Getzlaf. I think Dach skates very well for a big man and he should get more explosion and leg drive as he fills out. That is his down characteristic though is to hit his ceiling he will need to do that. Still I remain pretty high on him as he rounds out my top 5. He is a projection pick but I like his fit to our current group a lot as well.

Great post.

I personally love how Dach fits into our future lineup (presuming he reaches his potential).

He checks all of the boxes for me. I think he can be a real dynamic player.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

New TSN Mock

https://www.tsn.ca/kakko-closes-gap-on-hughes-in-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-4-0-1.1309174

NJ - Hughes
NYR - Kakko
CHI - Byram
COL - Dach
LA - Caufield
DET - Cozens
BUF - Turcotte
EDM - Boldy
ANA - Zegras
VAN - Podkolzin

We better not pass on Turcotte for Cozens lol

Why not? I think Cozens is better.