- Oct 26, 2006
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We all know that the draft is a crap shoot, but trading away your 5OA and 7OA in consecutive years is not the right way to go for this team, in my opinion. Let's take ROR for example. He will help the team now but when we are starting to contend in three years or so, he will be well past his prime. Also, these proven players are going to cost more than the 5OA in my opinion. If Strome and Crouse make the team this year our prospect pool of the so called elite talent will not be deep as you suggested. If Strome and Crouse do not make the team, then we have to start looking at different playing to replace those two. I would keep the pick and try to pick up a couple of UFA's on short deals. At this point in time I want to keep all the talent we have, acquire more talent and let's develop our own ROR, Trocheks etc.
In one sense, I completely agree with you. It's when you say, "...when we are starting to contend in three years or so..." that I run into problems.
This franchise cannot afford to wait three more years to make the playoffs. At least, not if it's going to stay in this market.
The way things stand, this team needs to compete sooner rather than later. It's been six years since we've been in the playoffs. It's been five since we've even been close. We need to start having seasons with better gate revenue and a better marketing pitch to local companies, and the only way to get that in Arizona is to win. So what would be smart for a rebuilding team in any other market with solid ownership and no danger of relocation - i.e., a measured, long-term gradual buildup of fundamental talent - is not going to work for us here.
After what he's done in the past couple of years, I trust Chayka. If he decides to trade 5OA in order to get help now, I'll probably grit my teeth a little, but I'll roll with it. Why? Because I know that at pick 5, there are no guarantees. And there are no guarantees in our player/prospect pool either - we really don't know if there are still higher levels that some of these guys like Dvorak and Fischer and so forth can reach, or if they have plateaued. "Wait three more years" only works if everything eventually develops the way we want it to, and in this league the odds of that happening are catastrophically low.
The Rangers trade last year got savaged by more than a few people, but over the course of the season it got better and better in hindsight. I don't know anyone who would have traded Raanta for Smith by the end of the year, and Stepan rebounded from a slow start to be one of our top scoring centers. By the time we know if Lias Andersson is a star in the making, we'll be well past our "three-to-five year" rebuild grace period, and Tony DeAngelo isn't even in the big leagues anymore. So if Chayka can pull off another deal like that at this draft, then mas alla - over the next hill we go!