Speculation: 2018 Off-season Thread

[BUX7PHX]

Thank you Sniper, that's what I've been saying. Our first line doesn't cut it. We need a top line RW and then a center.

I agree with this - I know I have harped on the idea of trading for ROR, but I think that only works if we move out a C like Strome in return. I don't think shipping the #5 OA as part of the package for ROR is a good idea b/c we are widening the holes on our roster at wing while upgrading at C. Unless there is a plan to move Keller to the right permanently and move Dvorak to the left side.

RW is the best position to look into trading either a prospect or pick for.

We all know how hard it is to get a 1C, and it would gut our team if we trade for one. Getting a top line RW would be much easy and less expensive to get. Who do you have in mind?

Granlund? MIN probably does not trade him. The #5 OA would be a great starting point for that type of deal, but I think MIN would be hurting at RW and we don't want to include either Panik or Fischer in return.
Coyle? I think that our best option is something like Crouse and a 2019 2nd round pick. That may not be the best offer MIN receives, but I would start to feel uncomfortable about including a player like Domi or Perlini in there.
Tarasenko? Again, probably giving up #5 and something significant, so may be the hardest player to get.
Stone? Assumes no ill effects from injury and willingness to sign long-term.
Atkinson? May not be worth the #5 OA and CBJ needs to add something.
Voracek?
Mantha? Does he fall into a similar category as Coyle where we can offer Crouse and a 2nd round pick, but it feels like either that price is not enough or if we start to get uncomfortable offering a better prospect/player in return?
Armia? Crouse and a 2nd could work there, but again, if available, I see that being a mediocre offer relative to other teams.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

We all know how hard it is to get a 1C, and it would gut our team if we trade for one. Getting a top line RW would be much easy and less expensive to get. Who do you have in mind?

Honestly, I don't know. I don't think that the market will sort itself out until draft day, perhaps beyond for those teams in cap trouble. That said, I wouldn't be adverst to a Las Vegas type deal - we'll take on an awful contract if you also send us the center that we want.

 

[Grimes]

Tampa fans arent thrilled about trying to re-sign Miller. He would be another nice top 6 W/C that could be had for less than TyJo (from the sounds of it). Would add a little more size and grit, although it sounds like they were really dissapointed with his playoff performance.

 

[Heldig]

IMO a top 6 skilled RW is the biggest need. As was pointed out earlier, if Panik is on the top line the team does not have a top line. I like Panik maybe as the RW on Stromes line.

How to get that top RW? Don't really know. The draft is one possibility. There might be a chance to swap Perlini for a similar RHS. There are some under utilized players across the league (eg Marko Dano) that could be cheaper to get and have upside.

 

[rt]

IMO a top 6 skilled RW is the biggest need. As was pointed out earlier, if Panik is on the top line the team does not have a top line. I like Panik maybe as the RW on Stromes line.

How to get that top RW? Don't really know. The draft is one possibility. There might be a chance to swap Perlini for a similar RHS. There are some under utilized players across the league (eg Marko Dano) that could be cheaper to get and have upside.

Wasn’t Panik playing LW and Keller RW on that line? You could move Panik down to the Domi and Strome line as the RW, keep Keller as 1RW and pick up a top LW for the Stepan and Keller line. It’d be nice to get another RHS for the PP but I wouldn’t say it’s a dealbreaker if there’s a good winger available who’s a LW.

 

[Jakey53]

Honestly, I don't know. I don't think that the market will sort itself out until draft day, perhaps beyond for those teams in cap trouble. That said, I wouldn't be adverst to a Las Vegas type deal - we'll take on an awful contract if you also send us the center that we want.

I don't think teams who are in cap trouble, which I think are very few this year, are willing to give us a 1C if we take back a bad contract. A RW maybe, but again, who do you see that we can approach for such a deal?

 

[Mosby]

What do we have to give Carolina for both Elias Lindholm AND Justin Faulk?

I think those two address our two biggest needs: C/RW and D.

Panik - Stepan - Keller
Domi - Strome - Lindholm
Perlini - Dvorak - Fischer
Crouse - Kruger - Cousins

OEL - Faulk
Goligoski - Demers
Chychrun - Hammer

I realize I've given up nothing off of the roster here. Given their fixation with size, I'd start with Crouse. Replace him with Bunting. Could we get the rest of the deal done by bundling together enough non-roster pieces, i.e., Merkley, Joseph, picks after 5OV??

 

[Jakey53]

What do we have to give Carolina for both Elias Lindholm AND Justin Faulk?

I think those two address our two biggest needs: C/RW and D.

Panik - Stepan - Keller
Domi - Strome - Lindholm
Perlini - Dvorak - Fischer
Crouse - Kruger - Cousins

OEL - Faulk
Goligoski - Demers
Chychrun - Hammer

I realize I've given up nothing off of the roster here. Given their fixation with size, I'd start with Crouse. Replace him with Bunting. Could we get the rest of the deal done by bundling together enough non-roster pieces, i.e., Merkley, Joseph, picks after 5OV??

Would you do such a deal if you were Carolina?

 

[Mosby]

Hard to say. Is their owner focused on cutting costs? If so, Faulk is making 6 and Lindholm's next deal (he's an RFA) is probably around 4. Generally I don't think you get better pieces for a collection of parts, but the one benefit here to Carolina is that a bunch of ELCs (Crouse, Merkley, etc.) carry very little cost. Their GM is also a poor evaluator so the price may be cheaper than usual.

 

[BUX7PHX]

IMO a top 6 skilled RW is the biggest need. As was pointed out earlier, if Panik is on the top line the team does not have a top line. I like Panik maybe as the RW on Stromes line.

How to get that top RW? Don't really know. The draft is one possibility. There might be a chance to swap Perlini for a similar RHS. There are some under utilized players across the league (eg Marko Dano) that could be cheaper to get and have upside.

This is the $1 million question. I feel as if just simply saying that we'll grab Dano for cheap and hoping that he delivers the form to become a top player is no better or worse than just taking someone with the #5 OA pick and waiting two years for them to develop and break into the league - there is still a chance that it goes bust, just as signing a cheap under-utilized player can go bust. If we want a top line RW and want it now, we have to pay the price for a top RW and pay that now. If we didn't have the depth of the prospect pool to back up the idea, like the issue we were in for pretty much all of Maloney's tenure, then it makes it very difficult to justify a deal. But with the resources we have, I think that scoring a top RW is a potential get this offseason.

Thought A:
Konecny and the #14 OA for the #5 OA? Don't think Philly is terribly interested in that type of deal, but if the Flyers like Wahlstrom more than Konecny and the Coyotes are not necessarily favorable to Wahlstrom and want to use that to nab a top 6 RW, then does it work?

Keller-Stepan-Konecny
Domi-Strome-Panik
Perlini-Dvorak-Fischer
Crouse-Kruger-Cousins
Bunting-Archibald

#14 pick - Kotkaniemi could still be available, but more likely to be Woo, Wilde, Farabee, or Hayton.

Thought B:
Dano for a 2nd round pick? We already have plenty of hope lined up in some of our other prospects. Why not go after more of a sure thing?

Keller-Stepan-Panik
Domi-Strome-Fischer
Perlini-Dvorak-Dano (this assumes Dano is comfortable on the right side and will eventually play his way into a top role, or we turn to the #5 OA pick to get there)
Crouse-Kruger-Cousins
Bunting-Archibald

#5 pick - Wahlstrom, Hughes, Boqvist, Tkachuk are the likely available players.

Personally, I like the first deal better, b/c it definitively covers a hole at RW that we only cover through FA or choosing Wahlstrom in the second scenario (unless Dano is a true breakout RW, which I am not certain he would be). We also get a better mix of players, IMO. Dano and the #5 OA (whomever that may be) vs Konecny and the #14 OA (whomever that may be). We also know that Konecny has performed against NHL level talent at ages 19 and 20, where we don't have that gauge on Wahlstrom.

I may just be throwing a bunch of shit on the wall and hoping something sticks, but most of the time that it comes down to trying to acquire a top line RW, I see the #5 OA as being one of the best ways to get it done, and not necessarily a limitation on advancing the prospect pool if we are targeting the right player.

 

[YotesFan47]

Tampa fans arent thrilled about trying to re-sign Miller. He would be another nice top 6 W/C that could be had for less than TyJo (from the sounds of it). Would add a little more size and grit, although it sounds like they were really dissapointed with his playoff performance.

He seemed like he had a pretty good playoffs from what I saw, maybe my expectations were low though. I'd be happy picking him up at a sub $5m contract for 3-5 years. He's young and gritty, fits a 2nd line mold, he's exactly the type of player we should look to acquire if there are no top end RW available.

 

[IPreferPi]

Tampa fans arent thrilled about trying to re-sign Miller. He would be another nice top 6 W/C that could be had for less than TyJo (from the sounds of it). Would add a little more size and grit, although it sounds like they were really dissapointed with his playoff performance.

I was pretty vocal back when in wanting to trade Rundblad for Miller (oh boy, if only). If Tampa isn't keen on keeping him, I'd prefer targeting Miller over Tyler Johnson.

 

[rt]

I like TyJo a lot more than Miller as a player. Acquisition and contract costs maybe change that equation somewhat, though.

 

[rt]

@BUX7PHX - I don't think there's much of a chance that Philly would be at all interested in Konecny & 14 for 5. Maybe if we add 55, that might get them thinking if they're really in love with someone at 5. Konecny & 14 for 5 & 55 feels a little less insulting. Haha.

I still think that has about no chance, unless they have a really unconventional draft list, where their 2nd or 3rd ranked guy is not the consensus 2nd or 3rd guy, and he happens to be there at 5th overall.

 

[Lilhoody]

Tampa fans arent thrilled about trying to re-sign Miller. He would be another nice top 6 W/C that could be had for less than TyJo (from the sounds of it). Would add a little more size and grit, although it sounds like they were really dissapointed with his playoff performance.

That seems comical to me. It takes a team to W or L. Miller had 2/3 and 1/2, regular season and post season production, as compared to Stamkos and for a fraction of the price. To be upset with Miller seems flawed. My guess is they are mad at the cost for Miller and McDonagh, as compared with results...again, it takes a team. Lot's of blame to be shared when a team gets blanked two games in a row.

Anyway, I'd be happy seeing Miller with a howling dog on his chest.

 

[Mosby]

1. Perlini for Johnson
2. Draft Tkachuk (Perlini replacement at LW)
3. Stuff for Faulk (Crouse, Joseph, +?)

Panik Stepan Keller
Domi Strome Johnson
Tkachuk Dvorak Fischer
Bunting Kruger Cousins

OEL Faulk
Goligoski Demers
Chychrun Hammer

Raanta
Kuemper

 

[lanky]

1. Perlini for Johnson
2. Draft Tkachuk (Perlini replacement at LW)
3. Stuff for Faulk (Crouse, Joseph, +?)

You probably haven't offered up enough to get those trades done. Despite that we'd be much better off bringing in a UFA winger and calling it an off-season.

 

[Jakey53]

You probably haven't offered up enough to get those trades done. Despite that we'd be much better off bringing in a UFA winger and calling it an off-season.

I agree. I don't get some people's thinking. We took years to acquire these high end talent, now we want to trade them before they have matured. We still are rebuilding not tweaking for the SC. We still have holes to fill so we should keep on collecting assets and use some of them for a trade down the road when we are a lot closer to being a SC contender. We have no idea what Perlini, DVO, Strome, Fischer, Chychrun etc. are capable of. If we draft a player like Tkachuk, I would rather trade Crouse than Perlini. We need goals, probably another 30 to make the playoffs.

 

[BUX7PHX]

^^^^
I disagree and think that there are very few young players who we don't know what their capabilities are. Those players are Strome, Crouse, Joseph, Merkley, and maybe Dauphin? Two of those players are hamstrung by injury (Merkley and Dauphin) and one simply is not out of the CHL yet. Relative to where Strome was picked - his capabilities do not match up to the hype quite yet, although there is some hope. Many of the others are going to take 2-3 additional years before joining the AHL, so those are the players that we don't have an idea on.

We know EXACTLY what we have in:
Dvorak - a responsible 2 way C capable of 30-50 points
Domi - a spark plug on offense who isn't going to back down from anything and is likely a 50 point per season scorer in the league, at the very least
Perlini - 20+ goals - maybe 30. Probably not the best at defense - literally the best shooter on the team
Chychrun - solid defenseman with a enough offensive bite - probably could be in the 17-20 minute per game range right now and will work into 20-22 minute range and capable of 20-30 points in a full season
Fischer - rugged right handed power forward - likely that guy that parks himself in front of the net and gets 15-25 goals a year for doing the dirty work
Keller - going to lead our team in points for multiple seasons - offensive dynamo and someone who will always need to be looked for when on the ice.

I would say that we know way more about these players than say, Panik. As you said, you'd rather trade a Crouse than a Perlini. Does that have anything to do with the fact that we know what Perlini is and can be, yet we have less of a gauge on Crouse, b/c that is what it certainly sounds like?

There is such a thing as picks not panning out, too. What if the next three years of draft picks wind up getting us very little in quality play out of our 1st and 2nd rounders? Now, we just waited out three years of picks trying to bring our depth up and missed the chance to make relevant trades to help the team, b/c we were focused on picks and maybe putting too much value on the 18 year old vs the guy who we have seen do it in the NHL. Additionally, assuming that the team gets better, we will pick lower in the draft. Maybe the player we would be looking at would have been available for the #12 pick, but not for the #18 pick, or we can't piece together enough value because of our success. Sometimes, waiting out for the perfect scenario could provide just as many drawbacks.

 

[IPreferPi]

^^^^
We know EXACTLY what we have in:
Dvorak - a responsible 2 way C capable of 30-50 points
Domi - a spark plug on offense who isn't going to back down from anything and is likely a 50 point per season scorer in the league, at the very least
Perlini - 20+ goals - maybe 30. Probably not the best at defense - literally the best shooter on the team
Chychrun - solid defenseman with a enough offensive bite - probably could be in the 17-20 minute per game range right now and will work into 20-22 minute range and capable of 20-30 points in a full season
Fischer - rugged right handed power forward - likely that guy that parks himself in front of the net and gets 15-25 goals a year for doing the dirty work
Keller - going to lead our team in points for multiple seasons - offensive dynamo and someone who will always need to be looked for when on the ice.

There is such a thing as picks not panning out, too. What if the next three years of draft picks wind up getting us very little in quality play out of our 1st and 2nd rounders? Now, we just waited out three years of picks trying to bring our depth up and missed the chance to make relevant trades to help the team, b/c we were focused on picks and maybe putting too much value on the 18 year old vs the guy who we have seen do it in the NHL. Additionally, assuming that the team gets better, we will pick lower in the draft. Maybe the player we would be looking at would have been available for the #12 pick, but not for the #18 pick, or we can't piece together enough value because of our success. Sometimes, waiting out for the perfect scenario could provide just as many drawbacks.

Most of the players you listed as we know "exactly what we have in" have barely played 100 NHL games. So although many of them are on track to what we hoped they'd be when we drafted them, there's still a good deal of uncertainty surrounding what they will ultimately become.

As for high picks not panning out, almost all of our 1st rounders and more than half of our 2nd rounders between 2013-2016 have developed into NHL regulars - we've gotten better at hitting at the draft once we got out of becoming the wards of NHL ownership. So I'll give Chayka and his revamped scouting staff the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the (very unlikely) possibility that all of our 1st and 2nd round picks over the next three years bust.

This team is still a long ways away from being a legitimate contender who could challenge for the Cup, and it's certainly not one who can stay at that level for multiple seasons. I support making reasonable moves for reasonable prices, but I'm absolutely against any major exodus of our prospects in the pipeline as well just so we can win now.

 

[Kaibur]

It's late May. Seems like a good time for wild offer sheet speculation.

Could we target Madison Bowey for an offer sheet or offer sheet threat and trade?

He hasn't gotten a sniff of the playoffs after getting sent down to make room for deadline acquisitions. He had a good rookie year after 2 in the AHL and Washington may be tight against the cap, depending on how things shake out with Carlson and what kind of extension Wilson earns. Maybe Bowey's a little embittered and willing to look at offers?

 

[Mosby]

We haven't seen an offer sheet in 5 years (the Flames and O'Reilly). I just don't think they're an option.

UFAs are cheaper from an acquisition standpoint but this year's crop is weak, particularly at RW. The options at (either) wing:

Rick Nash - old, slow
Neal - interested at the right price, slight downgrade as he's a left-hand shot
JVR - also a LW, but interested if the price is right. Suspect it won't be after that Evander Kane contract
Perron - interested, and a RW, but he's going to get paid after a career year
Stempniak - RW, cheap, but too old
Maroon - LW, uninspiring
Kunitz - LW, a winner, but old
Vanek - a right-handed shot, effective on the powerplay, uncoachable
Grabner - LW, wildly inconsistent production

This also fails to answer the question at C. We're screwed once again if Strome isn't ready for regular minutes.

 

[SniperHF]

Yep, the FA class kinda blows.

Grabner strikes me as the most attainable of the group.
If we're talking about a hired gun, I don't think old is as much as a detriment as it would be for a longer term deal. Chayka did sign Vrbata and let him go the next year for example. Maybe that initially had more to do with Tip, but it's not like we were strong at RW then either and the deal did work out.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Most of the players you listed as we know "exactly what we have in" have barely played 100 NHL games. So although many of them are on track to what we hoped they'd be when we drafted them, there's still a good deal of uncertainty surrounding what they will ultimately become.

As for high picks not panning out, almost all of our 1st rounders and more than half of our 2nd rounders between 2013-2016 have developed into NHL regulars - we've gotten better at hitting at the draft once we got out of becoming the wards of NHL ownership. So I'll give Chayka and his revamped scouting staff the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the (very unlikely) possibility that all of our 1st and 2nd round picks over the next three years bust.

This team is still a long ways away from being a legitimate contender who could challenge for the Cup, and it's certainly not one who can stay at that level for multiple seasons. I support making reasonable moves for reasonable prices, but I'm absolutely against any major exodus of our prospects in the pipeline as well just so we can win now.

So which ones would you disagree with of the players listed? Remember that 5 years ago, we had this as our prospect pool and the players that we know exactly what we have in them:

Samuelsson - big guy, but has some skating deficiencies - will help round out our bottom 6 RW core
Martinook - late bloomer who may be a bottom 6 F and may just be an AHL player
Murphy - a RH defenseman who has had some issues with injuries in junior - seems big enough to be an unquestioned top 4 D, but must grow into his body more
Gormley - smooth LHD who should be an NHL regular in 2-4 years

I would argue that we know far more about the players that we have now vs 5 years ago. Chalk that up to poor drafting in the past, but none of the four players listed above really panned out to what we would have thought. Far more uncertainty in that sense, and part of being certain with what you have in a player comes from being able to see them in these situations against similar talent. Is this b/c the ceilings and floors are wider than what these players were? Meaning that all of those 4 players above had more unclear floors after two years, and we just had to assume that they would eventually get to their ceilings? As an example, I am totally fine with the Murphy trade b/c what we thought we knew 5 years ago never came to fruition, and instead of being a potential top 4 D, he looked more like a bottom pairing D. The quicker that we can figure out which players are/are not going to develop, the better we make the composition of the team. Now, we have players whose floors are more clear, and those that aren't with clear floors (Strome, Merkley even) should still be given the benefit of the doubt or the same amount of leash as those who have better established themselves?

I think that we have the opportunity to be a contender for multiple seasons - all of our core players are relatively the same age (19-22) and the ones that we don't think are core players can be moved for players who will impact the game in a similar way, albeit at the age of 27, as opposed to 19-22. I guess that I just don't view a trade of #5 OA and a player like Crouse for a top line RW as creating a mass exodus of players. Crouse is one of those players that falls into the "we like what we have but don't know what the final product will be" players that you do want to push toward a deal b/c while the risk is that you give up a player who may turn into something great, the opposite is that you hold on to a player that may never reach their full potential.

 

[IPreferPi]

So which ones would you disagree with of the players listed? Remember that 5 years ago, we had this as our prospect pool and the players that we know exactly what we have in them:

Samuelsson - big guy, but has some skating deficiencies - will help round out our bottom 6 RW core
Martinook - late bloomer who may be a bottom 6 F and may just be an AHL player
Murphy - a RH defenseman who has had some issues with injuries in junior - seems big enough to be an unquestioned top 4 D, but must grow into his body more
Gormley - smooth LHD who should be an NHL regular in 2-4 years

I would argue that we know far more about the players that we have now vs 5 years ago. Chalk that up to poor drafting in the past, but none of the four players listed above really panned out to what we would have thought. Far more uncertainty in that sense, and part of being certain with what you have in a player comes from being able to see them in these situations against similar talent. As an example, I am totally fine with the Murphy trade b/c what we thought we knew 5 years ago never came to fruition, and instead of being a potential top 4 D, he looked more like a bottom pairing D. The quicker that we can figure out which players are/are not going to develop, the better we make the composition of the team.

I think that we have the opportunity to be a contender for multiple seasons - all of our core players are relatively the same age (19-22) and the ones that we don't think are core players can be moved for players who will impact the game in a similar way, albeit at the age of 27, as opposed to 19-22. I guess that I just don't view a trade of #5 OA and a player like Crouse for a top line RW as creating a mass exodus of players. Crouse is one of those players that falls into the "we like what we have but don't know what the final product will be" players that you do want to push toward a deal b/c while the risk is that you give up a player who may turn into something great, the opposite is that you hold on to a player that may never reach their full potential.

Most of us were down on the Martinook pick at the time, so him actually developing into a PKing bottom six winger basically met our best expectations. Gormley and Samuelsson unfortunately got derailed by injuries that made their biggest deficiencies even more glaring (skating), and although we did eventually flip Murphy, we only did so after we got a good read on what he'd become after 250 games in Coyotes red.

I'm not attached to Crouse so I have no problems using him as trade bait, but the fifth OA is not a pick that changes hands very often, because more often than not it represents a golden opportunity to pick up a young potential top line/pairing talent for free - and frankly, that talent will be there this year.