Speculation: 2018 Off-season Thread

[More Cooley]

What's Eddie Läck doing in Scottsdale?

 

[Prarievarg]

What's Eddie Läck doing in Scottsdale?

Trying to persuade Chayka into giving him a spot on the Arizona Swedes?

 

[moosemeister]

I see him on Oliver’s instagram all the time. Makes me wonder if he lives in the area during the off-season

 

[Dirty Old Man]

...although, ugh, why would you do that to yourself if you could afford not to? Im sitting here in the munich airport, 70 outside, and not really looking forward to returning next week in time for June.

Although, having said that, I ran into Taylor Pyatt in July a few years back in Kirtland Commons, so people do...

 

[rt]

I wonder how many NHLers were smart enough to buy real-estate in the bottomed out Valley market a half decade ago. Or at the very least buy a single sprawling retirement palace in Scottsdale for pennies on the dollar during the darkest of hours.

Even Eddie lack, after the 11/12 season had earned 1.8m and was about to sign a 1.5m deal the summer of 2012. Would’ve been a great time to pick up an amazing place in the valley for very little cash. Or to pick up a handful of okay places for even less.

 

[Jamieh]

I wonder how many NHLers were smart enough to buy real-estate in the bottomed out Valley market a half decade ago. Or at the very least buy a single sprawling retirement palace in Scottsdale for pennies on the dollar during the darkest of hours.

Even Eddie lack, after the 11/12 season had earned 1.8m and was about to sign a 1.5m deal the summer of 2012. Would’ve been a great time to pick up an amazing place in the valley for very little cash. Or to pick up a handful of okay places for even less.

My Cousin played with Jiri Tlusty around that time and he put all of his money into Southern US property in AZ and Florida, smart kid.

 

[BUX7PHX]

So my only thought on the whole O'Reilly/Tavares talk is the overall composition of the team. Stealing from what SR has offered - let's envision a deal involving a pick (for argument's sake, the #5 OA) and a player (non-veteran).

What I have trouble figuring out is if we make a deal that involves #5 and LW for a C, there has to be a few other moves, apart from just moving a C like Dvorak or Kruger to wing. I feel like if we deal for a C, we almost have to include Strome in the deal, or if dealing a LW and #5, the return has to involve a complementary right wing.

Otherwise, I think we are relying on a multitude of other things to balance out the roster. Guaranteeing the right free agent signings, which I have more confidence in Chayka finding the right system players, will still have to be a big focus especially if the contingency plan is to shift Dvorak or Kruger to a wing. Just a lot of dominoes that need to fall into place. That's why I feel like we won't get too crazy with deals. Giving and receiving the right value, but not further opening holes/question marks in the lineup.

#5 and Strome for O'Reilly as the basis of a deal? Sure.

#5 and Perlini for a RW or a superior LW to Perlini. Absolutely.

But no trades that open up bigger holes on the roster.

 

[rt]

So my only thought on the whole O'Reilly/Tavares talk is the overall composition of the team. Stealing from what SR has offered - let's envision a deal involving a pick (for argument's sake, the #5 OA) and a player (non-veteran).

What I have trouble figuring out is if we make a deal that involves #5 and LW for a C, there has to be a few other moves, apart from just moving a C like Dvorak or Kruger to wing. I feel like if we deal for a C, we almost have to include Strome in the deal, or if dealing a LW and #5, the return has to involve a complementary right wing.

Otherwise, I think we are relying on a multitude of other things to balance out the roster. Guaranteeing the right free agent signings, which I have more confidence in Chayka finding the right system players, will still have to be a big focus especially if the contingency plan is to shift Dvorak or Kruger to a wing. Just a lot of dominoes that need to fall into place. That's why I feel like we won't get too crazy with deals. Giving and receiving the right value, but not further opening holes/question marks in the lineup.

#5 and Strome for Tavares as the basis of a deal? Sure.

#5 and Perlini for a RW or a superior LW to Perlini. Absolutely.

But no trades that open up bigger holes on the roster.

Tavares is a UFA. We wouldn't trade for him. If we want him, we have to convince him to play here and come up with the money to make it happen. And we have to do that before somebody else convinces him to play for them instead.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Tavares is a UFA. We wouldn't trade for him. If we want him, we have to convince him to play here and come up with the money to make it happen. And we have to do that before somebody else convinces him to play for them instead.

I thought the idea would be that we trade for his rights, like the Goligoski situation. I think we would have to have it on very good terms that we could pitch a deal that would interest him, but you are right, he is a free agent, and as such, the price would not be that high for his rights. (Or would it??!??)

Fixed to O'Reilly instead to make it plausible for this offseason.

 

[rt]

I thought the idea would be that we trade for his rights, like the Goligoski situation. I think we would have to have it on very good terms that we could pitch a deal that would interest him, but you are right, he is a free agent, and as such, the price would not be that high for his rights. (Or would it??!??)

Fixed to O'Reilly instead to make it plausible for this offseason.

You can talk to UFAs early now. I believe starting the week before the draft (maybe just days before). Rights acquisition is cheap as a result. For example, we traded for Goligoski maybe a week before the window opened to talk to him and it cost us a fifth round pick. He was poised to be a top five UFA target on the market, and it cost a 5th. Tavares is obviously much more coveted, but UFA rights will never cost a top five pick.

I wouldn't include Strome with the 5th overall to get O'Reilly. I'd add very little to the 5th overall to get O'Reilly. I'd look to deal Strome in a separate deal (for a D or RW), if we picked up ROR.

 

[BUX7PHX]

You can talk to UFAs early now. I believe starting the week before the draft (maybe just days before). Rights acquisition is cheap as a result. For example, we traded for Goligoski maybe a week before the window opened to talk to him and it cost us a fifth round pick. He was poised to be a top five UFA target on the market, and it cost a 5th. Tavares is obviously much more coveted, but UFA rights will never cost a top five pick.

I wouldn't include Strome with the 5th overall to get O'Reilly. I'd add very little to the 5th overall to get O'Reilly. I'd look to deal Strome in a separate deal (for a D or RW), if we picked up ROR.

This is what I am a little more fearful of - once we grab a C in a trade, we now have a glut at that position, and we have to have so many dominoes lined up perfectly with the right trade partner for Strome (or the next piece that would be dealt) and getting the right pieces there as well.

I think every team would always want to upgrade at C, but let's not create a situation where by letting one person into the room, we don't subsequently have to force another piece out, unless Chayka has every move planned out 4 steps in advance.

 

[Grimes]

If Sharks sign Kane long term (5-6m) and want to bring in Taverese think it's worthwhile to bring Boeds back for cheap? He had a great second half of the season, would make OEL happy and is usuallh good for 13+ goals. He may fit into RT's system well. Key word here is cheap. I wouldnt want to send more than a 3rd and a C level prospect. Domi-Strome-Boeds could be an interesting line, or maybe he finds chemistry with Keller.

Still have no idea what this big trade could be or what pieces would be involved ...

 

[SpaceCoyote]

let's not create a situation where by letting one person into the room, we don't subsequently have to force another piece out, unless Chayka has every move planned out 4 steps in advance.

Chayka handled the Smith trade this way, no reason to think he can't choreography and think ahead at this point.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Chayka handled the Smith trade this way, no reason to think he can't choreography and think ahead at this point.

I don't disagree that he wouldn't be able to orchestrate the right types of deals, just saying that a lot has to go exactly as planned.

Plus, there are different levels of player values. Smith kind of is what he is - very good goalie with elite athleticism. He can definitely be an asset on a veteran-heavy team, so the fit was there. Which one of our young forwards is a good enough fit to go to another team relative to what we want to add? Trying to get a top line center and a top 9 RW through the use of #5 plus at least one and possibly two young prospects who are NHL ready may not be quite as easy to piece together. If this were like last year and we were so thin at center depth, then it is a different story. Now that we have some depth, I don't want to go re-arranging too many deck chairs when it may not be necessary to do so.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

Seems to me that we have 2 chips to play in a trade - Strome with Perlini or Fischer and a 2nd, or our 5th pick. I would be hesitant to trade our 5th pick this year.

 

[rt]

I don't disagree that he wouldn't be able to orchestrate the right types of deals, just saying that a lot has to go exactly as planned.

Plus, there are different levels of player values. Smith kind of is what he is - very good goalie with elite athleticism. He can definitely be an asset on a veteran-heavy team, so the fit was there. Which one of our young forwards is a good enough fit to go to another team relative to what we want to add? Trying to get a top line center and a top 9 RW through the use of #5 plus at least one and possibly two young prospects who are NHL ready may not be quite as easy to piece together. If this were like last year and we were so thin at center depth, then it is a different story. Now that we have some depth, I don't want to go re-arranging too many deck chairs when it may not be necessary to do so.

It also requires a lot of money. If Buffalo says they’ll do ROR for the 5ov and a little something (because they’re signing Tavares) and Carolina says they’ll do Faulk for Strome and a little something (because they want to shake up the core), how do we afford to pay them and keep OEL and Hjalmarsson and other key pieces?

Also, can we really afford to trade 3ov (strome) and 7ov and 5ov and end up with a roster still not ready to contend for much more than a mere playoff birth?

I mean, does this roster look ready to run anyone over in the playoffs?

Panik-Stepan-Keller
Domi-ROR-(Right $)
Perlini-Dvorak-Fischer
Crouse-Kruger-Cousins
Ullstrom

OEL-Hjammer
Goligoski-Faulk
Chychrun-Demers
Lyubushkin

Raanta
Kuemper

And do those young pieces have enough ceiling room to grow that roster into contention? If not, the Calvary ain’t coming. That’s what we’ve got beyond a little depth like POJ and Merkley.

 

[BUX7PHX]

It also requires a lot of money. If Buffalo says they’ll do ROR for the 5ov and a little something (because they’re signing Tavares) and Carolina says they’ll do Faulk for Strome and a little something (because they want to shake up the core), how do we afford to pay them and keep OEL and Hjalmarsson and other key pieces?

Also, can we really afford to trade 3ov (strome) and 7ov and 5ov and end up with a roster still not ready to contend for much more than a mere playoff birth?

I mean, does this roster look ready to run anyone over in the playoffs?

Panik-Stepan-Keller
Domi-ROR-(Right $)
Perlini-Dvorak-Fischer
Crouse-Kruger-Cousins
Ullstrom

OEL-Hjammer
Goligoski-Faulk
Chychrun-Demers
Lyubushkin

Raanta
Kuemper

And do those young pieces have enough ceiling room to grow that roster into contention? If not, the Calvary ain’t coming. That’s what we’ve got beyond a little depth like POJ and Merkley.

That is true as well and why I don't think we are in play for O'Reilly. Just saying for too many pieces still have to be rearranged with regard to adding ROR.

Would much rather try and pick up the elite RW via trade of picks and/or prospects and leave C alone to look at UFA for the center position. The Wild won't do this deal, but something centered around the #5 for Granlund would at least round out the team so that we could go in any direction we wanted in both free agency and trades. Adding another C first almost 100% makes our next move as getting rid of or moving a current center to wing. I just don't feel as comfortable with doing that and it seems like rounding out the team with a C first will cost more $, no matter how you slice it...

If we do get a C, it has to involve a C going back in return, whether Stepan (short experiment with him), Strome or Dvorak (would rather get rid of Strome, but where does his value lie relative to 2-3 years ago?)

 

[Mosby]

If Sharks sign Kane long term (5-6m) and want to bring in Taverese think it's worthwhile to bring Boeds back for cheap? He had a great second half of the season, would make OEL happy and is usuallh good for 13+ goals. He may fit into RT's system well. Key word here is cheap. I wouldnt want to send more than a 3rd and a C level prospect. Domi-Strome-Boeds could be an interesting line, or maybe he finds chemistry with Keller.

Still have no idea what this big trade could be or what pieces would be involved ...

I'd be more interested if Boedker was a natural RW.

 

[Jakey53]

It also requires a lot of money. If Buffalo says they’ll do ROR for the 5ov and a little something (because they’re signing Tavares) and Carolina says they’ll do Faulk for Strome and a little something (because they want to shake up the core), how do we afford to pay them and keep OEL and Hjalmarsson and other key pieces?

Also, can we really afford to trade 3ov (strome) and 7ov and 5ov and end up with a roster still not ready to contend for much more than a mere playoff birth?

I mean, does this roster look ready to run anyone over in the playoffs?

Panik-Stepan-Keller
Domi-ROR-(Right $)
Perlini-Dvorak-Fischer
Crouse-Kruger-Cousins
Ullstrom

OEL-Hjammer
Goligoski-Faulk
Chychrun-Demers
Lyubushkin

Raanta
Kuemper

And do those young pieces have enough ceiling room to grow that roster into contention? If not, the Calvary ain’t coming. That’s what we’ve got beyond a little depth like POJ and Merkley.

Yup, you hit the nail on the head. All this talk of trading young assets, who took us years to acquire, for players like ROR may help us next year, but not long term. We might have our ROR in DVO. Keller is our Kane. OEL is our Doughty. Strome might be our ? These kids have to mature and will progress with more experience. We are getting there, slowly but surely. Now is not the time to trade for players that are in their prime or past it. PATIENCE.

 

[Jakey53]

That is true as well and why I don't think we are in play for O'Reilly. Just saying for too many pieces still have to be rearranged with regard to adding ROR.

Would much rather try and pick up the elite RW via trade of picks and/or prospects and leave C alone to look at UFA for the center position. The Wild won't do this deal, but something centered around the #5 for Granlund would at least round out the team so that we could go in any direction we wanted in both free agency and trades. Adding another C first almost 100% makes our next move as getting rid of or moving a current center to wing. I just don't feel as comfortable with doing that and it seems like rounding out the team with a C first will cost more $, no matter how you slice it...

If we do get a C, it has to involve a C going back in return, whether Stepan (short experiment with him), Strome or Dvorak (would rather get rid of Strome, but where does his value lie relative to 2-3 years ago?)

No way I trade the 5 OA, especially after losing our 7 OA last year. We will not be a SC contender next year, let's keep the rebuild going. Pick up more high end assets.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Yup, you hit the nail on the head. All this talk of trading young assets, who took us years to acquire, for players like ROR may help us next year, but not long term. We might have our ROR in DVO. Keller is our Kane. OEL is our Doughty. Strome might be our ? These kids have to mature and will progress with more experience. We are getting there, slowly but surely. Now is not the time to trade for players that are in their prime or past it. PATIENCE.

I am not against being patient, but it is all based on who is out there and who we target. Let's say the #5 pick is in play and we can use exactly (no other picks, players, or prospects involved) the #5 pick to get either ROR or Granlund.

If we trade for ROR:

LW: Keller, Perlini, Domi, Crouse, Bunting
C: Stepan, O'Reilly, Strome, Dvorak, Kruger, Cousins
RW: Fischer, Panik

We are still fairly void on RW and would require moving a player to a off-wing position or away from C, which is a risk. So, we take a riskier approach to our lineup and in order to fill out the roster, we are likely having to make at least 2 or 3 other moves (move a player to RW, sign a FA RW and/or likely trade one or two of our young players away to bring in a RW)

If we trade for Granlund:

LW: Keller, Perlini, Domi, Crouse, Bunting
C: Stepan, Strome, Dvorak, Kruger, Cousins
RW: Granlund, Fischer, Panik

Our only move that is truly necessary is moving a player to RW or signing a 4th line RW.

Would you rather have multiple other transactions to make as a result of 1 transaction, or would you rather minimize the remaining transactions that need to get made if the value is all the same?

Someone brought up the Smith trade as a reason for Chayka being able to bring this together, but remember that goalies are a different animal. There are a lot more good goalies in the league than there are good centers, so I don't know if we can judge the ability of a GM making multiple trades work in this context. Raanta was not THE major takeaway from the trade last year. It was about improving at C and G both and getting rid of Smith's contract to open up the $ to absorb Stepan. I don't know if we can view a trade for forwards vs goalies under the same microscope. And since we are not a cap team and do have a budget to work with, we want to get the best bang for our buck. If that means adding ROR and then trading Perlini + for a RW making $4.5 M per year, maybe that drains a lot of our funds for the year and we have to be cheap. The cap is the least of my concerns, but once we take on bigger money deals, we are tied to those for the remainder of that contract.

All that I am suggesting is to not create more trouble than it is worth, especially when dealing with more known quantities in the NHL level players. Get the right value, but if it means making 3 other moves as a result of that one move, maybe that is asking too much to go perfectly right, b/c any one of those additional moves could fall flat, even if the first move worked great.

That's why I am saying - if we add a C, let's make sure we lose a C in that trade. Adding a RW? Let's use the draft pick or LW, where we have a higher number of players available to move. Anything else closes one hole in the lineup but may open another somewhere else.

I think we are closer to being a playoff team than people realize, but we need some consistency across our top 3 lines. Only way to get that is to add a solid RW.

 

[rt]

I'd be more interested if Boedker was a natural RW.

Hasn't he been playing RW since Kitchener?

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

we have a solid 1st line with Keller/Stepan/Panik (it would be nice to get an upgrade on Panik though), but that group did produce lots of points down the stretch and we're dominate in a lot of games

the big question mark for me is who is going to be paired with Domi/Strome to make them both more effective. We don't have a 2nd line RW so that is the biggest need in the off season for me.

3rd line for me is Perlini/Dvorak/Fischer - inconsistent players game to game that maybe this year with Fischer a year older and the 3rd years for Dvorak & Perlini that they can find some more consistency putting up points. I'd really like to see Perlini get into the 25 goal category along with Fischer. That would do wonders for generating a better offense.

4th line is looking better without Martinook & Richardson. Crouse/Kruger/Cousins I'm liking it.

 

[moosemeister]

Let’s stay the f*** away from Boedker.

I can’t go another season watching him disappoint for 78 games a year

 

[AZviaNJ]

Please keep 5oA.....a top end prospect with 3 ELC years to follow. This is the wrong organization to trade top 7oA picks two years in a row.