Speculation: 2018 Off-season Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

Jakey53

Registered User
Aug 27, 2011
30,135
9,178
^^^^
I disagree and think that there are very few young players who we don't know what their capabilities are. Those players are Strome, Crouse, Joseph, Merkley, and maybe Dauphin? Two of those players are hamstrung by injury (Merkley and Dauphin) and one simply is not out of the CHL yet. Relative to where Strome was picked - his capabilities do not match up to the hype quite yet, although there is some hope. Many of the others are going to take 2-3 additional years before joining the AHL, so those are the players that we don't have an idea on.

We know EXACTLY what we have in:
Dvorak - a responsible 2 way C capable of 30-50 points
Domi - a spark plug on offense who isn't going to back down from anything and is likely a 50 point per season scorer in the league, at the very least
Perlini - 20+ goals - maybe 30. Probably not the best at defense - literally the best shooter on the team
Chychrun - solid defenseman with a enough offensive bite - probably could be in the 17-20 minute per game range right now and will work into 20-22 minute range and capable of 20-30 points in a full season
Fischer - rugged right handed power forward - likely that guy that parks himself in front of the net and gets 15-25 goals a year for doing the dirty work
Keller - going to lead our team in points for multiple seasons - offensive dynamo and someone who will always need to be looked for when on the ice.

I would say that we know way more about these players than say, Panik. As you said, you'd rather trade a Crouse than a Perlini. Does that have anything to do with the fact that we know what Perlini is and can be, yet we have less of a gauge on Crouse, b/c that is what it certainly sounds like?

There is such a thing as picks not panning out, too. What if the next three years of draft picks wind up getting us very little in quality play out of our 1st and 2nd rounders? Now, we just waited out three years of picks trying to bring our depth up and missed the chance to make relevant trades to help the team, b/c we were focused on picks and maybe putting too much value on the 18 year old vs the guy who we have seen do it in the NHL. Additionally, assuming that the team gets better, we will pick lower in the draft. Maybe the player we would be looking at would have been available for the #12 pick, but not for the #18 pick, or we can't piece together enough value because of our success. Sometimes, waiting out for the perfect scenario could provide just as many drawbacks.
Come on Bux, that is just downright wrong. Most players take 3-5 yrs. before they are fully developed and have break out years. I would rather trade Crouse than Perlini today because of Perlini's track record in junior and the little bit we have seen so far, but Crouse could end up being a more valuable player. You just never know with these young kids.
 

BUX7PHX

Registered User
Jul 7, 2011
5,581
1,350
Most of us were down on the Martinook pick at the time, so him actually developing into a PKing bottom six winger basically met our best expectations. Gormley and Samuelsson unfortunately got derailed by injuries that made their biggest deficiencies even more glaring (skating), and although we did eventually flip Murphy, we only did so after we got a good read on what he'd become after 250 games in Coyotes red.

I'm not attached to Crouse so I have no problems using him as trade bait, but the fifth OA is not a pick that changes hands very often, because more often than not it represents a golden opportunity to pick up a young potential top line/pairing talent for free - and frankly, that talent will be there this year.

Totally understand. And I get it - we get a valuable piece with the #5 pick.

By my count, we have 8 potential players on the roster at their positions that still qualify into the young and potential top talent who are going to blossom within the next 2-3 years, if the process hasn't already started. (Dvorak, Perlini, Domi, Strome, Keller, Fischer, Crouse, Chychrun)

Dvorak has put up the 2 quietest back-to-back 30 point seasons in recent memory.
Perlini set the team mark for most goals in 1st 100 games.

I could go on and on down the list, but my question is with that much at your leisure now - is it really hurting you to give up the #5 pick and have some years of immediately upgrading your top line, especially if you can work the deal to include one of those players with the questionable floor/ceiling ratio that I had mentioned earlier (in this case, Crouse)?

Or do you use the #5 pick and see if you sign what I consider to be meh temporary options in free agency, keeping in mind Panik is a UFA after this year and I really have no idea what his status will be with an offseason arrest, although I would like to keep him... as a 2nd/3rd line RW. Draft Wahlstrom (controlled contract, but you set yourself backwards if he doesn't meet expectations) and see what develops.

For me, it is often the first option, even with the value that is in this draft. I want these other 6 or 7 players to have better talent surrounding them now. The talent that would be added has done it at the NHL level before and is ready to continue doing so now. Yes, stopgap signings can be used, but imagine a talented top RW coming to this team in his mid-late 20s with some years left on his deal - maybe 1- 3 years left. Since Panik was our de facto top RW last year, came over in a trade, and has one year left after this past season - he is a prime example. Imagine executing a trade with the 5th pick, Crouse and maybe a small other piece from the AHL for the version of Panik that has typically scored 60+ points vs. Panik's high of 44 in his career. You don't think that a player like the 60 point version of Panik (or even the version of Panik we had this year of about 45 points) isn't going to see all the talent that he can continue playing with in his 30s and not want to re-sign or extend here?

If we only had 3 or 4 players in the young and developing group, then using the draft may still be appropriate (like two years ago when drafting Keller and Chychrun). But right now - we have the talent ready to progress. Explore all options to surround them with one more big weapon in the right age range at RW to continue to allow the young players to do so. If it doesn't happen, then we stick to the draft.
 

BUX7PHX

Registered User
Jul 7, 2011
5,581
1,350
Come on Bux, that is just downright wrong. Most players take 3-5 yrs. before they are fully developed and have break out years. I would rather trade Crouse than Perlini today because of Perlini's track record in junior and the little bit we have seen so far, but Crouse could end up being a more valuable player. You just never know with these young kids.

Yet this is becoming a younger league, as our GM has said, which means that it should be far more obvious to see who is developing faster and capable of hitting their respective floor or ceiling.

I totally get what is being said, b/c yes it may be that a player like Strome or Crouse winds up being more valuable if he gets another year or two to develop b/c we haven't seen everything from everyone. But, I also see that there are 5-6 other players who are already at their floor and ready for that next step. Those players could benefit from a high-end veteran vs waiting on the other 2 to "catch up," even if catching up might mean surpassing those players, at some point in the future.
 

Heldig

Registered User
Apr 12, 2002
17,000
10,381
BC
Rumour is Phil Kessel is on the block. Dont really want to pay the price it will take to aquire him but he would sure improve the goal scoring on the team. And Tocchet is a BIG fan.
 

Grimes

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jan 5, 2012
8,534
4,946
Tippet's Doghouse
Rumour is Phil Kessel is on the block. Dont really want to pay the price it will take to aquire him but he would sure improve the goal scoring on the team. And Tocchet is a BIG fan.

Hooboy, that's someone I would make a run at because I don't think the price would be as bad as we think. 6.8m for four more seasons, with a NTC/NMC clause. He has two cups under his belt and loves Tocchet like you mentioned. Isn't a fan of the spotlight either. I would imagine he would waive to come here, shockingly.

Pens could use that 6.8m to take a run at Carlson, as their blueline is looking less and less impressive by the year, and Oleksiak is up for RFA. Anyone can score with Crosby, and Guentzel looks like a legit goal scoring threat (not to mention, he needs a raise next season). Does Domi or Perlini get us more than halfway there? I'm not crazy about moving prospects, but Kessel is a top 20 scoring RW in the league, and I don't see age affecting him as much as say Max P. What if we take more salary back and bring on Haglin?

Domi + Minn 2nd + Merkely for Kessel and Haglin? That doesn't seem like enough, but this is a move that really saves the Pens cap wise, and adds to their prospect pool. Maybe if we can move back in the 1st and add a late 1st/early 2nd include that instead of the Minn 2nd?

Keller-Stepan-Kessel
Perlini-Strome-Panik
Haglin-Dvo-Fischer
Crouse-Kruger-Cousins

Kind of stupid asset management, but I like it more than moving Perlini/Fischer and a pick for someone like Coyle.
 

Hogan20

Leader of the JJ Moser Fan Club
May 1, 2016
1,594
1,378
Maine
Rumour is Phil Kessel is on the block. Dont really want to pay the price it will take to aquire him but he would sure improve the goal scoring on the team. And Tocchet is a BIG fan.
He doesn't really fit the rebuild all that well in terms of age. Yes, he'd help this year and maybe next year but how's he gonna do in three years when we should be rounding into a full blown Stanley cup contender (yes I know it's a little premature but I believe we'll be there).
Also, can't exactly see him being an advanced statistics darling so I don't see Chayka having a lot of interest in him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jakey53

Grimes

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jan 5, 2012
8,534
4,946
Tippet's Doghouse
Kesler came to Anaheim for pennies on the dollar because of his NMC. He would only go to a California team if I remember correctly, and Kings/Sharks couldn't afford him. Kesler + 3rd for Bonino, Sibisa, a 1st (24th OA) and a 3rd in 2014. If Kessel will only go to a handful of teams, and us being one of them you have to think his price drops. If we add another 4m by taking Haglin that should balance it out more.
 

Hogan20

Leader of the JJ Moser Fan Club
May 1, 2016
1,594
1,378
Maine
The most I'd offer up would be:
ARZ:
Panik @ 50%
Merkley
2018 2nd (MIN)
2019 3rd (ARZ)

PIT:
Kessel
 
  • Like
Reactions: RABBIT

Grimes

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jan 5, 2012
8,534
4,946
Tippet's Doghouse
The most I'd offer up would be:
ARZ:
Panik @ 50%
Merkley
2018 2nd (MIN)
2019 3rd (ARZ)

PIT:
Kessel

I bet that gets close if Pens send Haglin back our way. 11m of space for the Pens to retool with, plus a prospect who could become the next Sheary/Guenztel for them. It would all depend on how picky Kessel is about beong traded.
 

Hogan20

Leader of the JJ Moser Fan Club
May 1, 2016
1,594
1,378
Maine
I beat that gets close if Pens send Haglin back our way
I wouldn't mind taking Haglin back. Another Swede to play here in new Sweden.

Keller - Stepan - Kessel
Domi - Strome - Haglin/Fischer
Perlini - Dvo - Fischer/Haglin
Crouse - Kruger - Cousins
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sthlmyote

Mosby

Fire Bettman
Feb 16, 2012
23,655
18,733
Toronto
Kesler came to Anaheim for pennies on the dollar because of his NMC. He would only go to a California team if I remember correctly, and Kings/Sharks couldn't afford him. Kesler + 3rd for Bonino, Sibisa, a 1st (24th OA) and a 3rd in 2014. If Kessel will only go to a handful of teams, and us being one of them you have to think his price drops. If we add another 4m by taking Haglin that should balance it out more.

The price on Kessel to the Penguins was cheaper than normal too, as I believe Pittsburgh was the only team on his eight team list who was interested and who had the space. They even managed to get Toronto to retain in the deal.
 

IPreferPi

A Nonny Mouse
Jun 22, 2012
11,456
914
Phoenix, AZ
Also, can't exactly see him being an advanced statistics darling so I don't see Chayka having a lot of interest in him.

Kessel's possession metrics are ho-hum (especially for someone who starts in the OZone at least 60 percent of the time) but his P/60 at 5v5 has been consistently top 15-20 among all wingers over the past five seasons while also being money on the PP. Unless Tocchet really has a special relationship with him I can't imagine the Yotes being on his eight team trade list, but if we are, it's absolutely something worth exploring at the least.
 
Last edited:

RemoAZ

Let it burn
Mar 30, 2010
11,147
7,475
Glendale, Arizona
I'd only want them to deal for him if he comes at a cap dump price. He seems like a guy close to packing it in and coasting for the rest of his contract. He already looks barely interested enough to get into shape to play.

Hard to say no to the production though. We haven't had a scorer like him since Keith and Jeremy were here.
 

XX

Waiting for Ishbia
Dec 10, 2002
54,929
14,648
PHX
A third of a season worth of upswing and people want to trade for guys like Kessel? There's still a plan in place and it doesn't involve pulling Barnett-esque trades. Stepan was the one pull-forward move due to needing a center and leadership. Smart money still bides its time by drafting players and making smart, smaller signings. If the Coyotes are going to be a playoff team consistently, it will be done on the backs of homegrown players or not at all. This organization has no business trading for anyone over the age of 25 unless it's for pennies on the dollar. You're following the wrong team if you feel otherwise.
 

rt

The Kinder, Gentler Version
May 13, 2004
97,443
46,342
A Rockwellian Pleasantville
I love Phil Kessel. I’d love to have him on this team. I wouldn’t give away too much for him, though. Wouldn’t give up a quality roster player as an example. Picks and prospects? Sure. If PIT is looking at dumping his cap to sign an expensive D, then it make sense for both sides.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Coyotedroppings

Grimes

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jan 5, 2012
8,534
4,946
Tippet's Doghouse
Yeah I wouldnt expect it to hapoen, and wouldnt be thrilled if Perlini/Domi/Fischer were involved. However, I think it would be one of the few opportunities to grab a player of that calider for cheaper than he is worth (due to nmc/ntc). Find a way to grab TyJo or JT Miller for non-roster players would be preferred. Kessel is just offseason fun...unless
 

Mosby

Fire Bettman
Feb 16, 2012
23,655
18,733
Toronto
The most I'd offer up would be:
ARZ:
Panik @ 50%
Merkley
2018 2nd (MIN)
2019 3rd (ARZ)

PIT:
Kessel

I don’t think this does it.

Could see the Pens asking for Domi. Tie is very close with Mario. Would fit the whole “change of scenery” narrative too.
 

Jakey53

Registered User
Aug 27, 2011
30,135
9,178
A third of a season worth of upswing and people want to trade for guys like Kessel? There's still a plan in place and it doesn't involve pulling Barnett-esque trades. Stepan was the one pull-forward move due to needing a center and leadership. Smart money still bides its time by drafting players and making smart, smaller signings. If the Coyotes are going to be a playoff team consistently, it will be done on the backs of homegrown players or not at all. This organization has no business trading for anyone over the age of 25 unless it's for pennies on the dollar. You're following the wrong team if you feel otherwise.
Exactly. With the cap era we are in, teams are built thru the draft, plain and simple. Like you said, you then make smaller signings to round out your roster, and that is the way Chayka is doing it and I just hope AB doesn't get anxious and demand Chayka to stray from that model.
 

Heldig

Registered User
Apr 12, 2002
17,000
10,381
BC
The most I'd offer up would be:
ARZ:
Panik @ 50%
Merkley
2018 2nd (MIN)
2019 3rd (ARZ)

PIT:
Kessel
Cant imagine that is going to be good enough for landing Kessel. And the Coyotes don't have the depth of skill to offer much more.
 

RABBIT

Years of my life w you f*cks only to get relocated
We won’t get Kessel

But adding him to the group of stickyboyz would be fun.

Coach are you sticky?

Bro I’m sooooooo ****ing sticky

ZomboMeme 14022018214331.jpg


All aboard the Kessel train. Although XX brings up a good point. My kind of throw off the dynamic of what we're trying to accomplish, that being said if we expect to be competitive and we can't land anything significant this offseason, if Kessel can be had for somewhat cheap, it would be dumb not to take the deal. Something around Richard Panik and a little extra on our end would be the only thing I'm really interested in doing. I would hate to see Domi or Perls go to Pittsburgh in a deal like this. Just wouldn't make sense trading talented youth for an aging vet, no matter how good that vet is
 

AZviaNJ

“Sure as shit want to F*** Coyote fans.”
Mar 31, 2011
6,681
4,313
AZ
I don’t think this does it.

Could see the Pens asking for Domi. Tie is very close with Mario. Would fit the whole “change of scenery” narrative too.
Kessel scored 92 points last season, agree it will cost a core roster player (Domi/Perlini) and probably a solid D prospect (Capo?). Perlini/Capobianco/Minn 2nd for Kessel and Haglin(25% retention)

Hate to lose Perlini and Capo, but we have a glut of LHS wingers and loaded with LHD.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad