Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[Kiwi]

It's been said that there is a #15-#45 tier. I like my odds better in that tier. I'm all for moving down if we can get another top 4oish pick.

I was just looking at the TSN pick value chart and it does favour picking in the high 60's twice by a fair margin over once in the mid 40's range

I just went through Schuckers draft value list, a mid 40's pick is worth about 200 points and two high 60's are worth about mid 170's each

If those values are correct trading up isn't very good statically speaking

 

[Warden of the North]

Im really starting to think we might trade down and acquire more picks

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Berggren just feels like a dubas pick to ole mikeyg. Thats what we're about over here, we swing for the fences, the days of the **** goat picks are over boys. Also, I am now officially over the goat so **** you big guy! You're a damn bust! bum...

Last off the boat lol.

im going to stop you right there. You literally just proved that you have no idea who the goat is. Pre dotchin he was playing great hockey, go do some research. Not wasting anymore time on you now when you clearly don't have any basis or grasp on the player or his challenges.

Nah man. You're views about our C problems are way out of line with reality. Matthews Kadri Goat are 3/4 going forward, and trading for a tweener 2/3 c really doesn't cost that much. Thats assuming that nylander never moves to C, which is a real possibility. We 100% do not need more small sized skilled C's though, you are 100% wrong on that line. We need a backes/kessler type player or a powerforward to replace JVR up front.

What the hell are you talking about? aggressive? Do you not hear babs saying crap like "hes 6'5 on every shift tonight", my god i'm glad we didn't end up with someone like yak, this fanbase wouldn't have been able to handle it. The guy will be a player in the nhl, you just have to be patient. He was playing amazing hockey last year before that pos dotchin hit him, he'll get it back.

 

[Morgs]

It's definitely debatable either way depending on who's available in that midish 40's range but I'm sure pick values would favour the 2 picks in the high 60's instead

There's no wrong answer imo. Its all preference, but for me and this draft i really like the top-50~ with a solid drop off after. Question is would you rather two shots at dermott or dermott bracco + dzierkals.

 

[Mikeyg]

Last off the boat lol.

meh i have some hope for him, but im more disgusted now. Just such a waste.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

He put up good numbers in the MHL and internationally. I think it's more about overlooking a prospect like DeBrincat (the player he used as an example).

If that's the case I think he'll heavily consider Berggren and Lundkvist. Two of the youngest players in the draft. Performed internationally and locally.

Berggren (July 16)
SuperElit: 38gp 18g 39a 57pts
SHL: 10gp 0g 0a 0pts
U18: 13gp 6g 7a 13pts

Lundkvist (July 27)
SuperElit: 26gp 3g 11a 14pts
SHL: 28gp 2g 3a 5pts
U18: 8gp 1g 3a 4pts

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

meh i have some hope for him, but im more disgusted now. Just such a waste.

Yeah same here. I was happy with the pick when he was drafted but I quickly pulled the rip cord after seeing him for a couple of years. Just no offensive instincts at all, and for a guy who was accepted to Harvard his actual hockey IQ or processor seemed sub par.

 

[Kiwi]

There's no wrong answer imo. Its all preference, but for me and this draft i really like the top-50~ with a solid drop off after. Question is would you rather two shots at dermott or dermott bracco + dzierkals.

I definitely think your right about a tier from about #15-#45 although I definitely prefer some players to others in that group

I'd have to really like the player to go against the odds that much, looking at Bob's list the only player from 40 down I'd trade up for is Addison maybe Tychonick

 

[Mikeyg]

whoever thinks we're drafting woo needs to take friday off, our healthcare system is already swamped enough as is!


If we draft woo ill do the unthinkable, and friend the winter soldier.

 

[Menzinger]

I was just looking at the TSN pick value chart and it does favour picking in the high 60's twice by a fair margin over once in the mid 40's range

I just went through Schuckers draft value list, a mid 40's pick is worth about 200 points and two high 60's are worth about mid 170's each

If those values are correct trading up isn't very good statically speaking

Trading up isn’t worth it unless you can move up into like the top 15, and teams in the top 10 in particular almost never trade out of the top 10.

Without looking at the actual draft rankings it does make sense to trade back for a pair of 2nds, but that depends whether or not the Leafs think they’ll be giving up a “must grab” player at 25

 

[Kiwi]

Trading up isn’t worth it unless you can move up into like the top 15, and teams in the top 10 in particular almost never trade out of the top 10.

Without looking at the actual draft rankings it does make sense to trade back for a pair of 2nds, but that depends whether or not the Leafs think they’ll be giving up a “must grab” player at 25

Morgs and my trade down senario was predicted on the 2015 trade down

#25 for #35+#61+#68 then trading #61+#68 for a late 30's early 40's pick

It doesn't make much sense statistically given the average pick values unless you really like the guy your trading up for, I see 1 maybe 2 guys I'd be willing to do it for but I'm not sure it's a good idea even if you like the guy

So #35+#40+#52+#83 instead of #35+#52+#61+#68+#83
Or you just do #25+#52+#83

 

[Drew311]

I'm really excited that Dubas will be running the draft. I think we see something similar to 2015 when the Leafs put a priority on speed and skill. Too many picks were thrown away the last couple of years on stay at home defensemen. Time to re-stock the skill cupboard.

 

[Sundinisagod]

whoever thinks we're drafting woo needs to take friday off, our healthcare system is already swamped enough as is!


If we draft woo ill do the unthinkable, and friend the winter soldier.

It's a shame. If not for injury, he'd be the ideal pick at 25, but probably won't be there at 25 either. I'd take him in the 2nd though. Not much talk about him lately.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Not advocating reaching for need, but I'd love to stock up on defenders, and I see some really good value picks in the 30's and 40's. I'd love a drop down situation, where we turn 25 into a couple top 45 picks, come out with 2 of Miller, Samuelsson, Addison, Woo, Tychonick, Lundkvist, Sandin, Docker, McIsaac, Beaudin, Alexeyev (I'm prolly missing somebody, not named Merkley) You could make a case for any of these guys at 25, yet several will be going in the 2nd round. Perhaps even one of these guys slips to 52, and we get 3 solid d prospects in the top 52.

My dream draft day would be starting out something like this:

Trade 25 to the Isles for 41 and 43 (if we can't dupe Bergevin out of 35 and 38)

41. Samuelsson
43. Lundkvist
52. Woo

You could insert any defenseman I mentioned earlier above tbh, just trying to be realistic about who could be there at those spots.

 

[hawkeerox]

MyNHLDraft now has the Leafs taking Ryan Merkley in their latest Mock

I know some posters are swearing by that pick's occurrence on Friday.

 

[hockeywiz542]

“Drafting for need when players aren’t going to be on the roster for two or three or four years, I think your needs are going to change in the meantime.”

“I look at our goal is to add the best possible players that we can, and if we end up having a surplus at one position or another then that would fall on me as the manager — not the scouting staff or the rest of our staff — to fix it.”

“I think, certainly, a player’s intelligence level, not just off the ice but certainly on the ice, their instincts, their sense.”

“A lot of things kind of come and go in terms of trends in hockey, but puck skill, sense, intelligence, those are the things that remain sort of the staples all the time."

“Some years there’s an emphasis on, ‘you have to be fast,’ other times there’s an emphasis on ‘you have to be big’ but if you have smart people with high skill level, I think those are kind of tested and true ways to go about it.”

“That maybe sounds more basic than it truly is, but those are the kinds of things that every team in the NHL values for sure.”

 

[WTFMAN99]

Also interesting: he mentioned he isn't exclusively a "trade-down" guy, and trading up or staying put are possibilities.

From what I hear, trading up is a "decent" possibility.

 

[Kiwi]

From what I hear, trading up is a "decent" possibility.

From where?

All I've heard out of Dubas is we will do something if it makes sense, which could mean anything

 

[WTFMAN99]

From where?

All I've heard out of Dubas is we will do something if it makes sense, which could mean anything

I think we've conversed enough on these boards that we have a good rapport...just saying I've heard it.

 

[Liminality]

Found this through Jeffler and it is a Canucks site but their draft profiles seem to be the most in depth profiles I've seen for 100 prospects. (for free at least)

CANUCKSARMY’S 2018 NHL DRAFT PROFILES: #1 Rasmus Dahlin

If you scroll down you see other players profiles. I've been working my way through but it's a lot of reading before the draft.

 

[Morgs]

Found this through Jeffler and it is a Canucks site but their draft profiles seem to be the most in depth profiles I've seen for 100 prospects. (for free at least)

CANUCKSARMY’S 2018 NHL DRAFT PROFILES: #1 Rasmus Dahlin

If you scroll down you see other players profiles. I've been working my way through but it's a lot of reading before the draft.

Their analytics are such a nice reference. Great work by those guys.

 

[hockeywiz542]

From where?

All I've heard out of Dubas is we will do something if it makes sense, which could mean anything

Maple Leafs 'open to anything' at NHL Draft

Looking ahead to the Draft, are you looking to move up or down? What's your philosophy going in?

"I think this is the lowest we've picked in my time with the Leafs. We picked fourth (in 2015), then first, then 17th and now 25th. I think we're open to anything, moving up, moving down. We certainly have the requisite assets to move up. If there is a case to move down, we'll have our conversations with other general managers in the League and get a sense of what they're looking to do and then make our decisions as it comes along."

 

[Judas Tavares]

If we are moving up, it means either someone has taken a tumble, or a player from the concensus 2nd tier is in Dubas' 1st tier. If Dubas' tier 1 is similar to most, I would think the cost to move up would be too great.

 

[Kiwi]

I think we've conversed enough on these boards that we have a good rapport...just saying I've heard it.

Interesting, most statistical models I've seen say trading down is the correct move

Makes draft day a little more interesting, now watch as we trade the bloody thing outright with a plus for a roster player

Maple Leafs 'open to anything' at NHL Draft

Thanks for that

 

[Field of Dreams]

I think we've conversed enough on these boards that we have a good rapport...just saying I've heard it.

It seems to me that Dubas may be making a push to trade up for Hayton.