Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[SprDaVE]

At this point I'm starting to think that the Athletic is putting Merkley as our pick just for clicks. I get that Wheeler and Pronman are high on the kid, but putting him in at 25 in just about every publication they put out is bordering on clickbait.




Check out the backchecking effort in game 6 of the playoffs with his team down two goals and three minutes to go. Clip starts at 2:52
HIGHLIGHTS: Rangers vs. Storm – Apr. 1st, 2018 – Kitchener Rangers

The pinch was fine, his team desperately needed the offense and he's the guy to create it. Even if he backs off, it's a 3 on 2. High risk but a high reward play, I have no problems with a prospect making a pinch like that in a desperate playoff situation. But what on earth is that backcheck? Merkley is one of the best skaters in the draft and he casually glides into the picture when the puck is going in the net. Zero effort when his team's season is on the line. Maybe he's less of a problem in the dressing room and doesn't mouth off at his coaches since he was suspended, but his play on the ice still reflects an enormous attitude problem.

Wasn't that at the end of a long shift? Not much he could have done there even if he was full speed? Micro analysing a play like that is a little bizarre because I could do the same with any prospect and find a bad play that I could say that leads to something bad.

He definitely needs to work on his positioning and overall defensive game. No question. He even admitted himself in interviews at the combine that he knows he needs to get better there, 100%. Those things are fixable though and he's got the tools to overcome those deficiencies. I'm a lot more worried about where his head is because that's one thing that could get in the way of his development. He does seem self aware from the interviews I've seen recently... so perhaps he's learned about in the past year.

He's very Karlsson-esque in his game where he's not great because he makes a ton of plays defensively or outmuscle opponents in the corners, it's what he does with the puck that makes him a very good prospect, especially late in the first round.

 

[Morgs]

Merkley would be a fine pick at #25.

 

[67Cup]

There may be a little bit of significance to the Pronman prognostication. Apparently a number of teams have Merkley on their don’t draft lists. But Pronman may know from his many OHL contacts that the Leafs are not one of them. Pronman would probably know if the Leafs were doing their due diligence and asking around about Merkley’s character. You can’t really keep that kind of investigation secret.

Of course, that due diligence might lead to the answer “No.”

 

[SprDaVE]

There may be a little bit of significance to the Pronman prognostication. Apparently a number of teams have Merkley on their don’t draft lists. But Pronman may know from his many OHL contacts that the Leafs are not one of them. Pronman would probably know if the Leafs were doing their due diligence and asking around about Merkley’s character. You can’t really keep that kind of investigation secret.

Of course, that due diligence might lead to the answer “No.”

Many of them have him top 15 as well.

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[nuck]

Seems odd Mascherin wasn't even worth something like a 4th to another club. A bit of solidarity amongst the GMs maybe to discourage this behavior?

 

[Walshy7]

Seems odd Mascherin wasn't even worth something like a 4th to another club. A bit of solidarity amongst the GMs maybe to discourage this behavior?

small scoring winger who's skating isn't very good. I wouldn't pay a 4th for that

edit: and his scoring regressed by 14 points while playing 2 more games this season

 

[FrozenJagrt]

This is purely anecdotal and I am in no way an insider, but I have heard from people connected to the Storm that the reports about Merkley's character don't even begin to tell the full story. From what I've been told, he's just not a guy you would want on your team at all.

Again, that's hearsay and I'm a nobody, so take that with a grain of salt.

 

[Walshy7]

This is purely anecdotal and I am in no way an insider, but I have heard from people connected to the Storm that the reports about Merkley's character don't even begin to tell the full story. From what I've been told, he's just not a guy you would want on your team at all.

Again, that's hearsay and I'm a nobody, so take that with a grain of salt.

add this grain of salt to all the other grains of salt and we now have a salt factory. This kid is a no go at all for me. I sincerely hope he is on our do not draft list

 

[theIceWookie]

Wasn't that at the end of a long shift? Not much he could have done there even if he was full speed? Micro analysing a play like that is a little bizarre because I could do the same with any prospect and find a bad play that I could say that leads to something bad.

He definitely needs to work on his positioning and overall defensive game. No question. He even admitted himself in interviews at the combine that he knows he needs to get better there, 100%. Those things are fixable though and he's got the tools to overcome those deficiencies. I'm a lot more worried about where his head is because that's one thing that could get in the way of his development. He does seem self aware from the interviews I've seen recently... so perhaps he's learned about in the past year.

He's very Karlsson-esque in his game where he's not great because he makes a ton of plays defensively or outmuscle opponents in the corners, it's what he does with the puck that makes him a very good prospect, especially late in the first round.

He seems to be aware of the need to mature and change. His recent interviews in the last 6 months make it seem like he understands. His talent is undeniable and I think he's showing he's willing to work and try to change his behaviour. Unless he bombed his interviews (and from all accounts, he didn't. In fact he faced his criticisms like you'd want), I'm for grabbing him.

 

[LeafGrief]

Wasn't that at the end of a long shift? Not much he could have done there even if he was full speed? Micro analysing a play like that is a little bizarre because I could do the same with any prospect and find a bad play that I could say that leads to something bad.

He definitely needs to work on his positioning and overall defensive game. No question. He even admitted himself in interviews at the combine that he knows he needs to get better there, 100%. Those things are fixable though and he's got the tools to overcome those deficiencies. I'm a lot more worried about where his head is because that's one thing that could get in the way of his development. He does seem self aware from the interviews I've seen recently... so perhaps he's learned about in the past year.

He's very Karlsson-esque in his game where he's not great because he makes a ton of plays defensively or outmuscle opponents in the corners, it's what he does with the puck that makes him a very good prospect, especially late in the first round.

It doesn't really matter if it's at the end of a long shift or that there wasn't much he could have done, he didn't even try in one of the most crucial moments of the entire season. If I wasn't at work I'd be happy to go through a bunch more highlights of Merkley and post them so that I could give you more than one example. I posted that one with some analysis for it's pure shock value. I would also encourage you to check out the highlights from game 1 of that series as well. There are more than enough examples of how little he competes at defense. It's not just positioning, it's a complete lack of effort. As @93LEAFS has said multiple times, the best argument against Merkley is watching three full games of his and seeing just how deep the problems go. I was in the stands for that Game 1 and I don't want that guy anywhere near the Leafs draft table until round three at the earliest.

I'm really not sold on his combine interviews because I can basically guarantee that he's been told by every coach for the last three years that he needs to get better at his defense. He can be the most self aware guy in the world, but if you're looking at what he does on the ice, you absolutely should be questioning what's going on in his head.

He does great stuff when he gets the puck, but he's still going to be an possession nightmare at the NHL level because he will be completely unable to contribute to getting the puck back. A riverboat gambler is a fine prospect if they at least have some skills that will help them recover from their mistakes. Merkley looks like he's got the tools to be a better offensive but miles worse defensive version of Jake Gardiner. I like Gardiner a lot, but I don't believe that a guy with worse defense is actually the highest upside pick available at that point. Jake's inconsistency and blunders are what hold him back from being a true top pairing calibre player and Merkley seems to have those issues cranked up to 11. A guy like Miller with all the tools to be a steady top pairing guy and analytics darling is a higher upside pick.

Merkley's offensive potential gives him the possibility of being the best offensive defenseman in the draft. But his odds of making it are so damn low that he's not actually the best pick in the first round. The talent is there, I've seen it with my own eyes. But his defensive game isn't a question mark, it's an utter black hole and it will hold him back.

If it were the other way around and he was a smooth skating defensive defenseman who couldn't find the offensive zone, he wouldn't be on the radar for a 1st round pick. Defense might be a little easier to teach than offense in some cases, but guys who need to learn 50% of a hockey game from scratch in their draft years are not very good prospects. The kid's got potential, but it is a long, long, long road, and that's not necessarily what is best pick for the Leafs.

 

[SprDaVE]

It doesn't really matter if it's at the end of a long shift or that there wasn't much he could have done, he didn't even try in one of the most crucial moments of the entire season. If I wasn't at work I'd be happy to go through a bunch more highlights of Merkley and post them so that I could give you more than one example. I posted that one with some analysis for it's pure shock value. I would also encourage you to check out the highlights from game 1 of that series as well. There are more than enough examples of how little he competes at defense. It's not just positioning, it's a complete lack of effort. As @93LEAFS has said multiple times, the best argument against Merkley is watching three full games of his and seeing just how deep the problems go. I was in the stands for that Game 1 and I don't want that guy anywhere near the Leafs draft table until round three at the earliest.

I'm really not sold on his combine interviews because I can basically guarantee that he's been told by every coach for the last three years that he needs to get better at his defense. He can be the most self aware guy in the world, but if you're looking at what he does on the ice, you absolutely should be questioning what's going on in his head.

He does great stuff when he gets the puck, but he's still going to be an possession nightmare at the NHL level because he will be completely unable to contribute to getting the puck back. A riverboat gambler is a fine prospect if they at least have some skills that will help them recover from their mistakes. Merkley looks like he's got the tools to be a better offensive but miles worse defensive version of Jake Gardiner. I like Gardiner a lot, but I don't believe that a guy with worse defense is actually the highest upside pick available at that point. Jake's inconsistency and blunders are what hold him back from being a true top pairing calibre player and Merkley seems to have those issues cranked up to 11. A guy like Miller with all the tools to be a steady top pairing guy and analytics darling is a higher upside pick.

Merkley's offensive potential gives him the possibility of being the best offensive defenseman in the draft. But his odds of making it are so damn low that he's not actually the best pick in the first round. The talent is there, I've seen it with my own eyes. But his defensive game isn't a question mark, it's an utter black hole and it will hold him back.

If it were the other way around and he was a smooth skating defensive defenseman who couldn't find the offensive zone, he wouldn't be on the radar for a 1st round pick. Defense might be a little easier to teach than offense in some cases, but guys who need to learn 50% of a hockey game from scratch in their draft years are not very good prospects. The kid's got potential, but it is a long, long, long road, and that's not necessarily what is best pick for the Leafs.

I've seen plenty of top prospects give up on plays or make absolute blunders with the puck in the CHL on more than one occassion. While Merkley has had some problems in that aspect, the amount of times he's taken over a game and been dominant with the puck is also very prominent. Taking a prospect late like this is about development and projection. Whether you believe you can develop that elite skill and skating into a NHLer is really going to be said about just any other prospect at that draft position.

Puck possession nightmare? I'm not sure you know what that means. For example, Karlsson isn't overly strong or even that good defensively but he's one of the best in the entire world at puck possession. Why do you think? Again, it has nothing to do with defensive abilities per say, it's about what you do when you're on the ice and when the puck is on your stick. Same for a defenseman like Subban, Gardiner etc.

If you can get Jake Gardiner late in the first round of a draft, it's a massive steal. I don't understand why anyone would be upset there. What a weird comparison to try and bring down a prospect.

Merkley will probably never be a defensive defenseman or known for that. He needs a lot of work there and perhaps it gets better... perhaps it doesn't. What makes him really good is how good he can be at bringing the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone and make plays. It's really that simple.

I'd take my chance on him personally but I fully admit there are other prospects that should be considered. It's a tough job.

 

[Mess]

Biggest Risers

Liam Foudy always believed if he got the right amount of ice time that he would be able to show NHL scouts his talent level.
The forward got his chance in the second half of the season with London of the Ontario Hockey League and made the most of it.
Foudy, 18, had 40 points (24 goals, 16 assists) in 65 games this season and is No. 19 on NHL Central Scouting's final ranking of North American skaters for the 2018 NHL Draft, to be held June 22-23 at American Airlines Center in Dallas.

Foudy had 33 points (20 goals, 13 assists) in his final 30 games; he had seven points (four goals, three assists) in his first 35 games. "I just did a lot of extra work after practice, doing that knowing that when I got my chance I'd be ready, putting extra things in," Foudy (6-foot, 179 pounds) said. "That leads to when you get your chance, be ready. I tried to think positive during that time, even though I wasn't getting a lot of time. I tried to take the positives out of certain situations, and that helped me when I got my chance."

 

[LeafGrief]

I've seen plenty of top prospects give up on plays or make absolute blunders with the puck in the CHL on more than one occassion. While Merkley has had some problems in that aspect, the amount of times he's taken over a game and been dominant with the puck is also very prominent. Taking a prospect late like this is about development and projection. Whether you believe you can develop that elite skill and skating into a NHLer is really going to be said about just any other prospect at that draft position.

Puck possession nightmare? I'm not sure you know what that means. For example, Karlsson isn't overly strong or even that good defensively but he's one of the best in the entire world at puck possession. Why do you think? Again, it has nothing to do with defensive abilities per say, it's about what you do when you're on the ice and when the puck is on your stick. Same for a defenseman like Subban, Gardiner etc.

If you can get Jake Gardiner late in the first round of a draft, it's a massive steal. I don't understand why anyone would be upset there. What a weird comparison to try and bring down a prospect.

Merkley will probably never be a defensive defenseman or known for that. He needs a lot of work there and perhaps it gets better... perhaps it doesn't. What makes him really good is how good he can be at bringing the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone and make plays. It's really that simple.

I'd take my chance on him personally but I fully admit there are other prospects that should be considered. It's a tough job.

At pick 25 there are plenty of other guys who have the ability to take over hockey games. Berggen dominated at the U18's, Addison is one of the best offensive defenders in the WHL, even Bode Wilde goes off and dominates from time to time. If you're imagining a best case scenario of development for Merkley, imagining the best case scenario for those other guys is equally relevant. I used the Gardiner example because Jake is a 2nd pairing defender. Of course we would be happy if we pulled him out of pick #25, but if you want to talk about absolute upside (which is 99% of the time the reason Merkley is brought up) there are other players who have higher upsides than Jake Gardiner turned out to be. Jake isn't as valuable as Aho, which is the kind of upside you can see in Berggren, and Jake isn't as valuable as Dermott, which is the kind of upside you can see in Sandin. If Merkley was a typical CHL defender who gets caught puck watching or out of position from time to time, it wouldn't be an issue. Kids make lots of mistakes and it's to be expected. With Merkley, it's such a standout that he got "cavalier disregard for playing defence" in Bob McKenzie's article yesterday. Compare the criticisms of defense of Addison, who is another high skilled defender, to the criticisms of Merkley. There's a monumental difference there.

Possession includes getting the puck back and defending shots against your own net. Erik Karlsson's defensive weaknesses are overcome by his supreme offensive game, but he is not some defensive black hole and he is not actually a ridiculous gambler with the puck. He makes smart play after smart play after smart play in all three zones and when he does gamble, it's always with a high reward. Merkley hasn't actually shown those puck management and game control skills at all. Yeah, he can thread the needle with the best of them and has got some real slick dekes, but he doesn't actually control the tempo of a hockey game in the way that Karlsson does and often gambles in low reward scenarios. The skill and vision are there in spades, but he doesn't demonstrate actual hockey IQ very often. Then, when he loses the gamble, he doesn't use his elite skating to try and recover, which players like Karlsson , Letang, and Subban often do. And defensive abilities do matter for possession, you can only play keep away in the NHL for so long before you have to go get the puck back at some point. Merkley's passing abilities are phenomenal and he can be a strong transition defenseman when he gets the puck on his stick, but he has to have some skillset for getting the puck himself rather than relying on his teammates to get him the puck and then start the breakout.

 

[SprDaVE]

At pick 25 there are plenty of other guys who have the ability to take over hockey games. Berggen dominated at the U18's, Addison is one of the best offensive defenders in the WHL, even Bode Wilde goes off and dominates from time to time. If you're imagining a best case scenario of development for Merkley, imagining the best case scenario for those other guys is equally relevant. I used the Gardiner example because Jake is a 2nd pairing defender. Of course we would be happy if we pulled him out of pick #25, but if you want to talk about absolute upside (which is 99% of the time the reason Merkley is brought up) there are other players who have higher upsides than Jake Gardiner turned out to be. Jake isn't as valuable as Aho, which is the kind of upside you can see in Berggren, and Jake isn't as valuable as Dermott, which is the kind of upside you can see in Sandin. If Merkley was a typical CHL defender who gets caught puck watching or out of position from time to time, it wouldn't be an issue. Kids make lots of mistakes and it's to be expected. With Merkley, it's such a standout that he got "cavalier disregard for playing defence" in Bob McKenzie's article yesterday. Compare the criticisms of defense of Addison, who is another high skilled defender, to the criticisms of Merkley. There's a monumental difference there.

Possession includes getting the puck back and defending shots against your own net. Erik Karlsson's defensive weaknesses are overcome by his supreme offensive game, but he is not some defensive black hole and he is not actually a ridiculous gambler with the puck. He makes smart play after smart play after smart play in all three zones and when he does gamble, it's always with a high reward. Merkley hasn't actually shown those puck management and game control skills at all. Yeah, he can thread the needle with the best of them and has got some real slick dekes, but he doesn't actually control the tempo of a hockey game in the way that Karlsson does and often gambles in low reward scenarios. The skill and vision are there in spades, but he doesn't demonstrate actual hockey IQ very often. Then, when he loses the gamble, he doesn't use his elite skating to try and recover, which players like Karlsson , Letang, and Subban often do. And defensive abilities do matter for possession, you can only play keep away in the NHL for so long before you have to go get the puck back at some point. Merkley's passing abilities are phenomenal and he can be a strong transition defenseman when he gets the puck on his stick, but he has to have some skillset for getting the puck himself rather than relying on his teammates to get him the puck and then start the breakout.

I will completely and very much disagree with your assessment of puck possession in relation to Merkley. His game is exactly the kind of puck possession favours because he 100% excels at making plays that ensures that puck possession is maintained. His zone exists and entries, along with elite skating and puck handling abilities makes him far more likely to become a high level puck possession defenseman if he develops.

The rest is just going in circles so we'll just have to agree to disagree and move on.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

small scoring winger who's skating isn't very good. I wouldn't pay a 4th for that

edit: and his scoring regressed by 14 points while playing 2 more games this season

So then he probably won't go until late. Maybe Bleakley like drop.

I would have traded a prospect for him and given him an ELC though. The only thing for us is that the Marlies were still in the playoffs, so unless they were willing to take Dzierkals, Piccinich, Middleton, Mattinen or some other prospect outside of the AHL, then there was no deal to be done from our stand point. Even Andrew Nielsen would have been off of the table. Maybe he is not an amazing player, and may only survive as a bottom 6 player, but he has enough there to warrant an ELC and giving him a chance to prove himself. Giving up an older prospect who likely won't make it either (at least not here) is not a terrible thing to do (like the McKegg-Hyman trade). If he became another Hyman in a few years time, we'd be laughing.

 

[Mess]

Seems odd Mascherin wasn't even worth something like a 4th to another club. A bit of solidarity amongst the GMs maybe to discourage this behavior?

Leafs already have tooooo many small wingers in the organization. IMO

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This is purely anecdotal and I am in no way an insider, but I have heard from people connected to the Storm that the reports about Merkley's character don't even begin to tell the full story. From what I've been told, he's just not a guy you would want on your team at all.

Again, that's hearsay and I'm a nobody, so take that with a grain of salt.

The thing with me is that even if he did not have the character issues, he is just not a smart defensive player. And I do not care how great you are offensively, you are not going to help a team win with shotty defensive play. At best, he's a sheltered NHLer, and I do not see how those guys help you win cups, even if they are high end offensive players (like Gardiner). Those types of guys, even with a decent defensive game and no character issues, are high 2nd round picks max to me. Add in the fact that Merkley does not even have a decent defensive game (at the OHL level no less) and has character issues and I have a 3rd round grade maximum on him... And that's not even because I want him. I just think we could develop him enough to get a 2nd round pick in value out of him in a few years, like DeAngelo. I doubt any team would let him drop past the 3rd round purely based on pedigree and his offensive skills as well.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Leafs already have tooooo many small wingers in the organization. IMO

He has some physicality and edge though. He may be small, but he's stocky at least.

He would be different than the rest of our small wingers at least.

 

[Walshy7]

He has some physicality and edge though. He may be small, but he's stocky at least.

He would be different than the rest of our small wingers at least.

I worry more that his skating isn't great. The small skilled wingers are fine as long as there skating is above average. I do understand your point and a team with bare cupboards like the habs or even pens should have been all over that

 

[Morgs]

I'd take a flier on Mascherin in the 4th or later.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd take a flier on Mascherin in the 4th or later.

I'd consider it in the 5th round, but I would also consider that he may not have the type of upside worth a pick either (unless it was like one of our 7ths of course). He's a bottom 6er, and one with some question marks at that. Giving up a prospect without much of a future here is different than giving up even a 5th round pick.

 

[4thline]

Adam Mascherin would likely be top 5 in the organization in terms of shooting/finishing the day he hear's his name called. If you can get him pick 83 or later it's a gimme, at pick 52 it's tempting. Just a matter of IF (big if) he's smart enough/ can improve his skating enough to find space against the big boys.

If we had drafted him instead of Korshkov he'd be a no doubt ELC and a top 5 prospect (assuming you hold Dermott/Johnsson/Kapanen graduated.

 

[SprDaVE]

Adam Mascherin would likely be top 5 in the organization in terms of shooting/finishing the day he hear's his name called. If you can get him pick 83 or later it's a gimme, at pick 52 it's tempting. Just a matter of IF (big if) he's smart enough/ can improve his skating enough to find space against the big boys.

If we had drafted him instead of Korshkov he'd be a no doubt ELC and a top 5 prospect (assuming you hold Dermott/Johnsson/Kapanen graduated.

I'd gamble at #83 depending what's left. I'm a big fan. That would be the earliest though I think. That #52 pick will have someone pretty good to pick from and very likely with a better chance to become a higher valued/potential player.

 

[93LEAFS]

Adam Mascherin would likely be top 5 in the organization in terms of shooting/finishing the day he hear's his name called. If you can get him pick 83 or later it's a gimme, at pick 52 it's tempting. Just a matter of IF (big if) he's smart enough/ can improve his skating enough to find space against the big boys.

If we had drafted him instead of Korshkov he'd be a no doubt ELC and a top 5 prospect (assuming you hold Dermott/Johnsson/Kapanen graduated.

He also doesn't work particularly hard, which is another issue he will have to overcome to be an NHLer. I wouldn't touch him at 52. These are the same issues that plagued him in 2016, and he still has them. Time is running out.