2018 NHL Draft: Russian Prospects - 2017/18 Season (Midterm updated)

[kabidjan18]

Did I make a rule that all short forwards do play in the NHL? A rule would be saying he's too short to play in the NHL.

And no one said that. However, you criticized Caser's low rating of him on based on his size with incoherent reasoning. Here is your basic argument.

Short NHL players exist -> it is not true that a short player (~5'8") can be too short to play in the NHL.
X is an impact guy at current level -> X will be an impact guy in the NHL.
X is short ^ X is an impact player at current level.
X is short
X can play in the NHL
X is an impact player at the current level
X can be an impact guy in the NHL
X can play in the NHL ^ X can be an impact guy in the NHL

This argument is valid, at least if we accept the premises. But all it says is that a short player can exist in the NHL and be an impact player in the NHL. Simply because it is true existentially does not in any way mean that it is true for Zhabreyev. That's why you I said you made up a rule, because in order to link the existence of short and impactful NHL players to why Caser needs to have greater expectations that Zhabreyev specifically will make and be an impact player in the NHL you need another rule or your reasoning is incoherent. I never said small players can't make the NHL, but your initial premise of "small NHL players exist" in no coherent way suggests he is underrated.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

And no one said that. However, you criticized Caser's low rating of him on based on his size with incoherent reasoning. Here is your basic argument.

Short NHL players exist -> it is not true that a short player (~5'8") can be too short to play in the NHL.
X is an impact guy at current level -> X will be an impact guy in the NHL.
X is short ^ X is an impact player at current level.
X is short
X can play in the NHL
X is an impact player at the current level
X can be an impact guy in the NHL
X can play in the NHL ^ X can be an impact guy in the NHL

This argument is valid, at least if we accept the premises. But all it says is that a short player can exist in the NHL and be an impact player in the NHL. Simply because it is true existentially does not in any way mean that it is true for Zhabreyev. That's why you I said you made up a rule, because in order to link the existence of short and impactful NHL players to why Caser needs to have greater expectations that Zhabreyev specifically will make and be an impact player in the NHL you need another rule or your reasoning is incoherent. I never said small players can't make the NHL, but your initial premise of "small NHL players exist" in no coherent way suggests he is underrated.

Actually, you did say that. I made no mention of rules until after you did.

Wow, here are two exceptions, let's make a rule out of them!

I was not saying he will be anything because of certain players, I was using an example of what he could be, so we shouldn't count him out based on that factor. Players his size can succeed in the NHL. I never said he will.

And you are making things up, adding logic that was never part of the conversation. You are essentially adding in a conversation that didn't happen. Relax man, you are creating an argument that wasn't there for some reason I don't understand.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Great list Caser, as usual.

Two kids who caught my eye are Belye Medvedi's Demid Mansurov, a 2000-born big two-way center with a well-rounded game. And this double OA defenseman who easily was Russia's best dman at the Super Series - SKA's Nikolai Knyzhov. Didnt put up points but he looks like a real leader out there.

And there's an OA tandem for Reaktor - winger Islan Khasanov (late-August 1999) and his tiny center Razat Timirov. Both are fun to watch and Khasanov plays in all situations. Wicked, wicked hands, deadly accurate and he buries a lot of Timirov's cross-ice setups.

And my sleeper/riser is defenseman Nikita Zorkin. Physical kid with size and good mobility who plays mean. He's usually paired with Nikita Anokin.

Anyway, thanks again. You always do such a great job with these.

 

[kabidjan18]

Actually, you did say that. I made no mention of rules until after you did.

I mentioned rules because your argument needed more rules to be coherent. You suggested that an example of a rule would be "no small players could play in the NHL". I said no one stated that example, and no one did, therefore it isn't particularly relevant.

I was not saying he will be anything because of certain players, I was using an example of what he could be, so we shouldn't count him out based on that factor. Players his size can succeed in the NHL. I never said he will.

And you are making things up, adding logic that was never part of the conversation. You are essentially adding in a conversation that didn't happen. Relax man, you are creating an argument that wasn't there for some reason I don't understand.

Ok, then you're misconstruing Caser's argument heavily. No one said we should count him out because of his size. Caser wouldn't list him in the first place if he was in the business of counting him out on the basis of his size.

Furthermore, you're being dishonest about your initial statement. Your exact quote was "I also think Zhabreyev should be higher", so you're not merely suggesting he is a possibility in existential terms but also that he should be considered a higher possibility than Caser considered. This claim or belief needs proof, thus we re-enter the argument I outlined in my last proof that the existence of short players doesn't imply a specific player will have a higher chance to excel.

Caser actually goes into reasons why his size may be unadaptable. You don't. The quote "Is Kailer Yamamoto any taller? What about Alex Debrincat? He's not too short to play in the NHL." isn't suggesting similarly skilled/talented players who he could become like, it's simply suggesting some players are his size. Suggesting "Debrincat is also not incredibly fast or athletic but was able to transition to winger" is comparing like skills or styles, "What about Alex Debrincat?" is not.

Which of the premises of my argument were not part of your initial post? Feel free to point them out.

 

[kabidjan18]

Delete, accidentally mistook the quote for the edit.

 

[wings5]

Curious on Yegor Sokolov's weaknesses and why him and Kotkov aren't higher, do they both have skating issues?

 

[Caser]

A bit surprised to see this thread bumped. Probably should clarify that about Zhabreyev I was putting the stress more on the fact that I doubt his successfull conversion to wing, not only his size. And also you can see that so far he plays center-only.

Great list Caser, as usual.

Two kids who caught my eye are Belye Medvedi's Demid Mansurov, a 2000-born big two-way center with a well-rounded game. And this double OA defenseman who easily was Russia's best dman at the Super Series - SKA's Nikolai Knyzhov. Didnt put up points but he looks like a real leader out there.

And there's an OA tandem for Reaktor - winger Islan Khasanov (late-August 1999) and his tiny center Razat Timirov. Both are fun to watch and Khasanov plays in all situations. Wicked, wicked hands, deadly accurate and he buries a lot of Timirov's cross-ice setups.

And my sleeper/riser is defenseman Nikita Zorkin. Physical kid with size and good mobility who plays mean. He's usually paired with Nikita Anokin.

Anyway, thanks again. You always do such a great job with these.

Thanks, but I really hope you mean that it was great for the start of the season, as already at this point I can't look at my overager list without tears.

About Demidov I can't comment at this point, as I didn't see enough of Belie Medvedi games (been quite busy so far unfortunately). About Neftekhimik guys, not like Timirov or Khasanov were not good, but so far for me Khafizov was by far the most noticeable player there, but I'd like to see him Vs more serious opposition. Hard to tell about Zorkin, he didn't stand out for me so far, but I really hate to evaluate D guys based on MHL feeds.

About Knyzhov, I wasn't exactly a fan of him (or anyone on Team Russia D) at the CAN/RUS Series, but I kind of like what I see from him in those VHL games he played since his return.

Curious on Yegor Sokolov's weaknesses and why him and Kotkov aren't higher, do they both have skating issues?

Yeah, I'm not a fan of their skating so far.

 

[wings5]

A bit surprised to see this thread bumped. Probably should clarify that about Zhabreyev I was putting the stress more on the fact that I doubt his successfull conversion to wing, not only his size. And also you can see that so far he plays center-only.



Thanks, but I really hope you mean that it was great for the start of the season, as already at this point I can't look at my overager list without tears.

About Demidov I can't comment at this point, as I didn't see enough of Belie Medvedi games (been quite busy so far unfortunately). About Neftekhimik guys, not like Timirov or Khasanov were not good, but so far for me Khafizov was by far the most noticeable player there, but I'd like to see him Vs more serious opposition. Hard to tell about Zorkin, he didn't stand out for me so far, but I really hate to evaluate D guys based on MHL feeds.

About Knyzhov, I wasn't exactly a fan of him (or anyone on Team Russia D) at the CAN/RUS Series, but I kind of like what I see from him in those VHL games he played since his return.



Yeah, I'm not a fan of their skating so far.

I see that is a little worrysome but thankfully skating can be improved. Also noticed the once highly hyped Danil Sokolka is back in Russia and doing decent in the MHL.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Any updates on how this crop of players is shaping up?

 

[Caser]

Any updates on how this crop of players is shaping up?

Maybe not exactly shaping up, but if you need some express thoughts:


Svechnikov.

Kravtsov and Alexeyev are both looking really solid, although not too consistent.

Everyone is on Denisenko's hype train after the WJAC, but I bought a ticket to Iskhakov's train instead, hope it can get me somewhere.

Zavgorodniy has been pretty invisible at the WJAC, which was a horrifying contrast comparing to the Hlinka's... ok, in the last game at the WJAC he was better and recently got a hat-trick in the Q, but still...

About some new names, Morozov and Malyshev looked interesting at the WJAC.

About overagers, most of them were at the WJC just recently, probably Polodyan is the top guy there now.

Kosorenkov has got it going again, looks like he might have been a bit emotionally down after not getting a contract from the Flyers.

About injuries, Khovanov and Bitsadze are back in action, but it's still too early to judge I think; Dronov is still sidelined.



That's just what I could think of from the top of my head during my coffee break.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Right, I mostly agree.

I was making my 2018 list for after the World Juniors, and I'll post the Russians included below, but here were my thoughts.

Svechnikov is going to go #2. I think thats locked in. He's not going to beat out Dahlin, but no one else is beating him out for #2. After that, I think the next best player is Kravtsov. I think this is a pretty weak draft after the first few selections, I was struggling for players to put in my top 10. I think Kravtsov shows a bunch of skills. I don't see anything noticeably wrong with his game. He's taking regular KHL shifts as a draft eligible, and doing reasonably well.

After that, I think Denisenko will be picked in the late first. He's not been dominant in the MHL, but good enough, and he does well in the international competitions. Lets hope he stays in Russia, and doesn't cross the Atlantic next season. I continue to be a big fan of Galenyuk, I think he's very underrated. I saw recently he got his first team SKA debut, but he did well in the WJAC-19 event for Russia. He moves the puck very well. I'm not sure his skating is great, but it looks fine to me. He has some offense to his game, and is a good defensive player. I don't think he'll be picked in the first round because he's playing in Russia and isn't a big name, but I think he'll prove himself to be a first round caliber player.

Khovanov is a talented player, but he chose the CHL route. Its not very high percentage. I would not draft him in the first round. Zhuravlyov is another defensemen who's game I like. I haven't watched much, but he looked good in the WJAC-19, and has put up good numbers this year in the MHL. I know some are big fans of Alexeyev, but I think he's kind of overrated. Late birthday, production isn't great, I'm not sure he's polished defensively, but he's still a decent hockey player. In a good defenseman draft like this one though, I don't think he's a first rounder. Shafigullin is a player who I think will really suffer from how poorly teams scout Russia. He's one of the only players in my top 62 who I haven't seen play yet, just highlights, and what I've read, but he does seem to be worthy of being picked in the 2nd or 3rd round. Maybe like Galenyuk he eventually earns his draft slot a few years after the draft. Miftakhov has looked very good in the matches I've watched. He's shorter for a goalie, but he has excellent lateral agility, and has some polish to his game. He also has put up good stats at many tournaments, and for his club teams, which shows there's consistency to his game.

2. Andrei Svechnikov
10. Vitaly Kravtsov
21. Grigori Denisenko
26. Danila Galenyuk
32. Alex Khovanov
44. Danila Zhuravlyov
45. Alexander Alexeyev
48. Bulat Shafigullin
52. Amir Miftakhov

Isayev is another player who I think could be a quality pick in net. I've only seen him play once, he looked similar to Miftakhov, but with an excellent glove. Not sure how many other good prospects there are. I won't write the CHL players off, but the odds are against them. That makes it tougher to find many talented players from the pool of 2018 draft eligibles for Russia. There are overagers, but that can be discussed right before the draft.

 

[Caser]

Quick and Dirty Midterm Update

Maybe someone will be a bit disappointed with this year's midterm update format, as I didn't make it as detailed as I used to (even more, it's what I like to call 'quick and dirty'), but this year I think that's the right way to do, because, additionally to me being always out of time, a lot of events are coming up very soon: the CHL Top prospects game and U18 Five Nations Tournament; additionally new rankings and scout surveys will be released and that probably will influence me whether I want it or not. That's why I thought it's better to release it now with very lazy comments than to wait for a month or so.

So, below is the Top10 with brief comments, then there are prospects ranked 11-to-25 without any comments at all. To disappoint you even more, there is still group of players (14 total) that are still unranked, as I didn't get the full picture of them yet. As a compensation I can offer some comments at your requests about a particular prospects, so feel free to make requests in this thread. Btw, for the first time I decided to make a midterm rankings without dividing it into first-year/overagers, so that's another excuse I have for me.

1. RW Andrei Svechnikov
No comment.

2. RW Vitaliy Kravtsov
Not sure if Kravtsov is a surefire elite-ceiling prospect, but at this point he already established himself as a KHL regular and that's definitely a good floor to start with.

3. LHD Alexander Alexeyev
Size and skating are still there, also some point production, definitely no complaints there.

4. LW Grigoriy Denisenko
After an impressive WJAC tournament everyone is head over heels for Denisenko, but I'm not a fan of his decision making at this point. Skill and skating is obviously there though.

5. RW/C Ruslan Iskhakov
And in Iskhakov's case I am a fan: probably the best hands I've seen in many years and a cerebral playing style. Yes, I know that he is lightweight and small, I don't care.

6. RW Alexei Polodyan
After a solid performance both at the CAN/RUS Series and at the WJC Polodyan can be considered a top overager and since those are a fashion thing nowadays, I think we can place him that high.

7. LW Dmitriy Zavgorodniy
From hero at the Hlinka's to zero at the WJAC - quite a worrying situation here. Still, not a long time ago Zavgorodniy got a hat-trick in the Q, so maybe he can turn things around.

8. LHD Danila Galenyuk
Physically and defensively solid, with a good pass, but nothing flashy. Also already made a debut in pro hockey (both in VHL and KHL).

9. W Vladislav Kotkov
Kotkov isn't exactly a great skater, but c'mon, he is 6'5"... also I have an impression that the stride itself isn't bad and he just needs to move his feet quicker, that's something that can be fixed.

10. LW Nikita Rtishchev
A lot of skill here, would like to see it on a more consistent basis.


In short about the 11-to-25 part of the rankings: here we have a lot of inconsistency in Gogolev, Nizhnikov and Kosorenkov, although it looks like they have showed signs of life recently. Malyshev and Morozov looked very good at the WJAC, kind of reminded me of Gavrikov and Maltsev. Some goalies are here too - Miftakhov, Melnichuk and Prosvetov are very different goalies each, so here it's up to your likings.

11. W Kirill Nizhnikov
12. RHD Anton Malyshev
13. LW Pavel Gogolev
14. LW Yegor Sokolov
15. RW Bulat Shafigullin
16. W Ivan Kosorenkov
17. C Ivan Morozov
18. LHD Vladislav Syomin
19. W Ivan Muranov
20. GK Amir Miftakhov
21. C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
22. GK Alexei Melnichuk
23. GK Ivan Prosvetov
24. LHD Nikolai Knyzhov
25. C/W Georgiy Ivanov


And the third part of the rankings is the part where I'm yet to made up my mind on where to rank those. Khovanov, Bitsadze and Dronov are obvious candidates for the top positions in my ranking, but they just relatively recently returned from injuries. Kovalenko has been red hot and even is scoring at the KHL All-stars game, it's totally my bad that I missed his recent games. Kizimov is another new name, he has been very interesting at the WJAC; Zhabreyev and Zhuravlyov were not, that's why I want to see more of him despite being more or less familiar with their game. Petunin has been collecting 'KHL rookie of the month' awards, which is interesting to me, as I totally remember disliking him couple of years ago.

Still to watch (in order of my interest):

C/W Alexander Khovanov
C Mikhail Bitsadze
LHD Grigoriy Dronov
RW Nikolai Kovalenko
LW Semyon Kizimov
LHD Yegor Kalabushkin
C/W Alexander Petunin
GK Shamil Shmakov
C Nikita Anokhovskiy
C Alexander Zhabreyev
LHD Danila Zhuravlyov
LHD Ilya Morozov
W/C German Voloshin
W German Grachyov

 

[Caser]

NHL Central Scouting rankings are released. My experience makes me take those with a grain of salt, specifically: I usually ignore if someone is ranked lower than I'd rank him, but certainly pay attention to cases when a player is ranked unexpectedly high and this time those are Bitsadze (16th on European skater rankings) and Miftakhov (2nd on European goalie rankings). Semykin is also kind of higher than expected, but here I will get to that grain of salt again, at least for now.

 

[Atas2000]

NHL Central Scouting rankings are released. My experience makes me take those with a grain of salt, specifically: I usually ignore if someone is ranked lower than I'd rank him, but certainly pay attention to cases when a player is ranked unexpectedly high and this time those are Bitsadze (16th on European skater rankings) and Miftakhov (2nd on European goalie rankings). Semykin is also kind of higher than expected, but here I will get to that grain of salt again, at least for now.

Miftakhov is not 1st? They are being stupid again

 

[Caser]

Miftakhov is not 1st? They are being stupid again

Miftakhov isn't a bad goalie, but he kind of doesn't look like a future franchise goalie and he is undersized at 5'11"... I mean, I remember Sukhachyov (hard to get away from this comparison here) at the same age and he had more signs of dominance, still he wasn't selected though for rather obvious size reasons. Imo, Gigantor The Goalie pretty well summed it up here:



Btw, since I mentioned Sukhachyov, he just has set a shutout minutes record for his team, still I don't think I should've ranked him. And since the VHL was mentioned, Miftakhov debuted there couple of weeks ago with a solid 32 out of 34 stopped shot game.

 

[Caser]

BobMcKenzie's scout survey (Top80) is out, so we can now more reliably think about it in terms of the draft stock too:

#2 Svechnikov
#21 Denisenko
#31 Alexeyev
#39 Kravtsov
#62 Khovanov
HM: Galenyuk

Also it's worth mentioning that no goalies are listed in the top 80 at all and, although no Russian goalies in the Top 5 separately listed goalies, it's still good for our goalies' draft stock, as teams will be selecting something like 20 goalies this year anyway (they always do).

 

[Atas2000]

BobMcKenzie's scout survey (Top80) is out, so we can now more reliably think about it in terms of the draft stock too:

#2 Svechnikov
#21 Denisenko
#31 Alexeyev
#39 Kravtsov
#62 Khovanov
HM: Galenyuk

Also it's worth mentioning that no goalies are listed in the top 80 at all and, although no Russian goalies in the Top 5 separately listed goalies, it's still good for our goalies' draft stock, as teams will be selecting something like 20 goalies this year anyway (they always do).

This is a very weak draft class. We don't have goalies to even talk about top 80. No defencemen worth talking about as evidenced by the WJC. Svechnikov is regressing just like his brother. The only difference is he is falling down to Earth from higher expectations. The NA runaways are starting to regress even faster now it seems. Ok, Khovanov gets the benefit of a doubt because ofvthe illness and all. Otherwise just a wasted crop.

 

[Caser]

This is a very weak draft class. We don't have goalies to even talk about top 80. No defencemen worth talking about as evidenced by the WJC. Svechnikov is regressing just like his brother. The only difference is he is falling down to Earth from higher expectations. The NA runaways are starting to regress even faster now it seems. Ok, Khovanov gets the benefit of a doubt because ofvthe illness and all. Otherwise just a wasted crop.

When talking about a weak or strong draft, we need a reference point to compare with. For example, if comparing with 2017 draft class, this year overall ceiling looks more promising (not sure about the success probability, so yeah, looks like a boom-or-bust year to me).

 

[Fantomas]

20 goals in 25 games = regressing? You drive me crazy sometimes, atas.

 

[Atas2000]

20 goals in 25 games = regressing? You drive me crazy sometimes, atas.

In.what.league?

Sorry, but you will have to endure my opinion at least with players from the AkBars school. I know a thing or two about what they looked like in the past.

And high numbers in the CHL have proven time and again to be non-indicative.

 

[Fantomas]

And high numbers in the CHL have proven time and again to be non-indicative.

Fine, but that works both ways.

 

[Atas2000]

Fine, but that works both ways.

It does. But there is also a fact that Svechnikov who was shopped as possible 1OA once and best russian prospect since Ovy/Malkin is now talked about as maybe not even a top3 pick. Those people also must have reasons.

 

[Atas2000]

When talking about a weak or strong draft, we need a reference point to compare with. For example, if comparing with 2017 draft class, this year overall ceiling looks more promising (not sure about the success probability, so yeah, looks like a boom-or-bust year to me).

We are loooking at a couple if not more weak drafts from Russia now. I tend to compare to what was an average draft class from Russia recently. We've had a fair share of top notch and middle of the pack goalies, a defenceman here and there at least projected to be a future NHLer and always a variety of wingers in all shapes and sizes.

 

[Fantomas]

It does. But there is also a fact that Svechnikov who was shopped as possible 1OA once and best russian prospect since Ovy/Malkin is now talked about as maybe not even a top3 pick. Those people also must have reasons.

They're wrong. And you have a short memory if you don't remember that the same doubts existed about Malkin in his draft year.

 

[Atas2000]

They're wrong. And you have a short memory if you don't remember that the same doubts existed about Malkin in his draft year.

If Svechnikov the younger turns out a winger Malkin as some poster called him here nobody is more happy than me. Problem is after WJC, Bragin's usage or not I am worried too. I haven't seen dominance. Only flashes. To compare him... Kucherov I never had doubts about. And yes, North Americans saw it differently and late 2nd and all. He ended up in Tampa and for now it looks like perfection. I can only hope Svechnikov gets drafted by a proper team. Som crazy Buffalo/Edmonton/Arizona scenario would give me the creeps. No offence to respective fanbases, but I think they know themselves why people would have that stance.