2018 NHL Draft: Russian Prospects - 2017/18 Season (Midterm updated)

[Caser]

We are loooking at a couple if not more weak drafts from Russia now. I tend to compare to what was an average draft class from Russia recently. We've had a fair share of top notch and middle of the pack goalies, a defenceman here and there at least projected to be a future NHLer and always a variety of wingers in all shapes and sizes.

But doesn't that 'average draft class' thing remind your of the old joke about the averaged body temperature over a hospital (including a morgue)?

Even if we compare it to recent 5 draft classes, only 2015 looks obviously stronger to me, others are more or less the same. But again, I think it is not exactly good to compare without agreeing on comparison parameters (perception of the draft class at that year Vs. perception of it now; ceiling Vs. depth etc.).

 

[Atas2000]

But doesn't that 'average draft class' thing remind your of the old joke about the averaged body temperature over a hospital (including a morgue)?

Even if we compare it to recent 5 draft classes, only 2015 looks obviously stronger to me, others are more or less the same. But again, I think it is not exactly good to compare without agreeing on comparison parameters (perception of the draft class at that year Vs. perception of it now; ceiling Vs. depth etc.).

Okay, my perception is we shpuld expect at least two future NT players per draft.

 

[Caser]

Okay, my perception is we shpuld expect at least two future NT players per draft.

I thought for some time about evaluating draft classes in that kind of perspective and decided to try to make some evaluation of the previous drafts that way. So below are my expectations of potential NT players at the moment of previous drafts. To make it quantitative I gave 1 point for a surefire NT player and 0.5 for a pretty likely, but not sure (again, it is based on my personal expectations back in the days):

2013: Nichushkin, Zadorov + 0.5xBuchnevich = 2.5
2014: Barbashev = 1 //although I could give 0.5 for Shestyorkin here too, but I'm totally not sure if I evaluated him that way
2015: Provorov, Svechnikov, Mironov + 0.5xSamsonov = 3.5
2016: Rubtsov + 0.5xSergachev = 1.5 //again, maybe 0.5 for Korshkov could be added here too
2017: Kostin, Svetlakov = 2

So in total I get the expected value of 2.1 to 2.3 points per draft. Although I have a feeling that we might need to exclude overagers here, as their expectations are also a product of their age, so without overagers it is 1.7 to 1.8 points per draft. But yeah, it still fits rather well with your expected 2 NT caliber players from each draft class.

With that being said, I think at this point we can already give 1 point for Svechnikov and I think 0.5 points for Kravtsov, which is not that bad, since the season is still rather far from being over.

 

[Kipper933]

Leading up to the draft last year, I heard several sources mentioning Pavel Shen as a potential sleeper close to the draft. It looks like he hasn't had much icetime this year in a depth role in the KH:. Any reason he didn't make any of your lists?

 

[Caser]

Leading up to the draft last year, I heard several sources mentioning Pavel Shen as a potential sleeper close to the draft. It looks like he hasn't had much icetime this year in a depth role in the KH:. Any reason he didn't make any of your lists?

I kind of expected better performance from him in the KHL, his icetime isn't that bad to be having just those two goals. Also in the MHL his production was very meh, although he just got a hat-trick, which fixes it a bit. On the other hand, he still brings some high-energy hockey in both of the leagues.

 

[Atas2000]

I thought for some time about evaluating draft classes in that kind of perspective and decided to try to make some evaluation of the previous drafts that way. So below are my expectations of potential NT players at the moment of previous drafts. To make it quantitative I gave 1 point for a surefire NT player and 0.5 for a pretty likely, but not sure (again, it is based on my personal expectations back in the days):

2013: Nichushkin, Zadorov + 0.5xBuchnevich = 2.5
2014: Barbashev = 1 //although I could give 0.5 for Shestyorkin here too, but I'm totally not sure if I evaluated him that way
2015: Provorov, Svechnikov, Mironov + 0.5xSamsonov = 3.5
2016: Rubtsov + 0.5xSergachev = 1.5 //again, maybe 0.5 for Korshkov could be added here too
2017: Kostin, Svetlakov = 2

So in total I get the expected value of 2.1 to 2.3 points per draft. Although I have a feeling that we might need to exclude overagers here, as their expectations are also a product of their age, so without overagers it is 1.7 to 1.8 points per draft. But yeah, it still fits rather well with your expected 2 NT caliber players from each draft class.

With that being said, I think at this point we can already give 1 point for Svechnikov and I think 0.5 points for Kravtsov, which is not that bad, since the season is still rather far from being over.

I think you are way too generous with NT spots. I mean Provorov, E.Svechikov, Mironov are one sureshot NT player and the other two I don't even know.

 

[Caser]

I think you are way too generous with NT spots. I mean Provorov, E.Svechikov, Mironov are one sureshot NT player and the other two I don't even know.

That's now, but at the moment of the draft Svechnikov was a top talent with some expectations and Mironov was already a NT player.

 

[kabidjan18]

You sleep hard on Kotkov imo

 

[Atas2000]

That's now, but at the moment of the draft Svechnikov was a top talent with some expectations and Mironov was already a NT player.

NT player as in best roster available? That is what I mean. It is unpredictable who may or may not play on the NT during WHC or EHT or Olympics or whatever. I mean the real top roster and that is where Mironov never belonged so far. Same goes for Svechnikov btw.

I know my system has "flaws". You have to wait for players to fully develop to see if they actually pan out as legit NT players and there literally never is that perfect NT roster. There are injuries, different tournaments and there is Znarok. So no, I can't say on draft day how many players exactly. I also just project, but tbh I never projected E.Svechnikov to become a NT player on the top roster. It is obviously different with his brother.

 

[MaxV]

Hopefully this age group can be another Tarasenko/Kuznetsov/Orlov/Panarin/Zaitsev.

 

[Caser]

You sleep hard on Kotkov imo

I don't know, I think all the guys I have above are noticeably better at skating.

NT player as in best roster available? That is what I mean. It is unpredictable who may or may not play on the NT during WHC or EHT or Olympics or whatever. I mean the real top roster and that is where Mironov never belonged so far. Same goes for Svechnikov btw.

I know my system has "flaws". You have to wait for players to fully develop to see if they actually pan out as legit NT players and there literally never is that perfect NT roster. There are injuries, different tournaments and there is Znarok. So no, I can't say on draft day how many players exactly. I also just project, but tbh I never projected E.Svechnikov to become a NT player on the top roster. It is obviously different with his brother.

Well, my definition of a 'NT player' was a bit less strict, like a legit player even if the team is not the best roster. But yes, if we are trying to make some evaluation that way I think we should separate the fact of a prospect becoming the NT player from the expectation of that (and those also should be separated for just 'hopes' or something). Looking at the Mironov's example, in my opinion it was quite logical that if at the moment of the draft a player is on the NT roster for the World Championships (even if you can't call him 'legit' yet), you can expect something good several years from that moment.

But again, returning to this draft: Svechnikov is definitely the guy we expect to become NHL regular. Kravtsov is also generating some expectations (enough of 0.5 points in my notation). Additionally Khovanov, Denisenko and some other guys still can prove that they deserve some rather high expectations, so in the end I think combined this draft class can more or less pass the 'two future NT players per draft.' criteria at least in terms of expectations, which would mean that it isn't much weaker than other years on average.

 

[Frk It]

@Caser, what are your thoughts on D Alexander Romanov?

I've seen him slotted pretty high on Russia's lineup, and he had a pretty good Junior A Challenge... but I've seen like 0 talk of him anywhere.

 

[Caser]

@Caser, what are your thoughts on D Alexander Romanov?

I've seen him slotted pretty high on Russia's lineup, and he had a pretty good Junior A Challenge... but I've seen like 0 talk of him anywhere.

So far my impression of him is that he is big and with a powerful shot, but not fast enough and not exactly defensively reliable. Interesting thing about him is that he is a grandson of Zinetula Bilyaletdinov, but I guess defensive instincts aren't transferred via genes.

 

[lakai17]

with all the other d hyped Alexeyev gets slept on.

 

[Frk It]

So far my impression of him is that he is big and with a powerful shot, but not fast enough and not exactly defensively reliable. Interesting thing about him is that he is a grandson of Zinetula Bilyaletdinov, but I guess defensive instincts aren't transferred via genes.

Is he big? I believe he is listed at 5'11", unless that is an old number.

 

[Caser]

Is he big? I believe he is listed at 5'11", unless that is an old number.

Actually that's quite interesting, as I never bothered to check those measurement numbers for him and in MHL he indeed is listed at slightly over 5'11", but my eye test says he is bit bigger than that. For example, in this tweet, you can compare him to Denisenko (#14) and Kotkov (#7) and to me he is noticeably bigger than Denisenko, while on paper he should be just slightly bigger.
P.s. unfortunately measurements available in MHL this season aren't as accurate as they used to be, so everything can be there.

 

[Frk It]

Actually that's quite interesting, as I never bothered to check those measurement numbers for him and in MHL he indeed is listed at slightly over 5'11", but my eye test says he is bit bigger than that. For example, in this tweet, you can compare him to Denisenko (#14) and Kotkov (#7) and to me he is noticeably bigger than Denisenko, while on paper he should be just slightly bigger.
P.s. unfortunately measurements available in MHL this season aren't as accurate as they used to be, so everything can be there.

Thanks for sharing, it's definitely possible he has hit a growth spurt recently.

 

[Caser]

Thanks for sharing, it's definitely possible he has hit a growth spurt recently.

btw, r-hockey.ru has a measurement that has him at 6'1" 187 lbs, but I totally can't say how reliable this is (although it is less conflicting with my eye test).

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Caser, what's your take on Ivan Morozov? What round would you take him in? Can he stick at centre? Thanks.

 

[Caser]

Caser, what's your take on Ivan Morozov? What round would you take him in? Can he stick at centre? Thanks.

Yes, I think he has some future as a middle-six center (although I've seen him playing at wing too), really reminds me of Mikhail Maltsev: not exactly a high-end offense, but some quality 200ft game is definitely there.

Since Morozov was mentioned, I think it is a good idea to post his 3 on 5 PK goal from couple of days ago:

 

[Marshy71]

Caser, what current NHLer would you see Kravtsov and Denisenko resembling? Might be a tough question

 

[Kshahdoo]

Caser, what current NHLer would you see Kravtsov and Denisenko resembling? Might be a tough question

Kravtsov is Kuznetsov lite. Of course, he's a winger, but Kuznetsov was a winger too in Russia.

 

[Mrb1p]

I see a lot of Gaudreau in Denisenko. Kid is good.

 

[Caser]

Caser, what current NHLer would you see Kravtsov and Denisenko resembling? Might be a tough question

With Kravtsov it is hard to get away from Kuznetsov's comparison, although downgraded at skating and playmaking.

Things that Denisenko can do with the puck kind of remind me of Nikolai Zherdev. It might seem to be not a flattering comparison due to how Zherdev's career worked out, but let's remember that he was totally fine until he went into his off-ice issues.

 

[DivochLubo]

What about Marchenko? I saw few games stream from U18 tourney and he looked very good.