2018-19 Red Wings

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I'm not sober so I hope this all makes sense but locking up Larkin and Mantha now is imperative.

(1) If we lock them up to long-term deals now and they continue to polish their game, they're likely signed to Bo Horvat/David Pastrnak-esque deals and give us a stable future with 2 key players on good-to-great deals.
(2) If we lock them up to short-term deals now and they continue to polish their game, then they're likely signed to Ryan Johansen/Jonathan Toews money 2-3 years from now at an older age. Ouch.
(3) If we lock them up to long term deals now OR short-term deals now and they never really progress beyond consistent 50 point players, then we'd end up paying them probably the same amount - long-term because we banked on them being great players and short-term because being a proven, consistent 50 point player is very valuable given their respective packages (Larkin's position/skating/leadership and Mantha's size/skating). Remember that an incomplete Tatar just got $5.3M out of us.
(4) If we lock them up to long-term deals now OR short-term deals and they completely flame out, then the organization is ****ed no matter what their contracts look like.

The problem is, we're in a very tough spot there. If we assume both Mantha and Larkin take the Horvat deal (5.5 x 6 years - a very favorable deal with the way they've played) then we're still left with just $5.7M (that's with Franzen's entire contract buried) for AA, a back-up goalie, and 3 forwards. So if we're signing Frk/Coreau to bare-bones deals @ $700k and promoting the cheapest D/F options in Hicketts and Turgeon (sorry, Bert and Svech), then we still only have $3M to sign AA with and zero flexibility after that. Given what AA is making this year and the fact that he already has 5 goals in 11 games, there isn't much reason to think that'll pan out. AA has no incentive to sign another 1 year deal, should be worth more than $3M easily, has no good will for the Wings, and is arbitration eligible. That's on top of the fact that Larkin, Mantha, Frk, and Coreau could easily ask for a collective additional $1.5M and deserve it.

There are ways around this but they either aren't our MO or they aren't value-maximizing. We could trade Howard and retain Mrazek at his QO or pick up a random UFA vet goalie on the cheap, we could trade Nyquist outright, or we could do both while retaining AA and giving everyone a realistic deal. But we aren't known for that brand of roster movement. We could also just sign one of Larkin/Mantha to a long-term deal but that risks allowing one of the two to enter contract negotiations with back-to-back big seasons. That's scarily reminiscent of RyJo's saga. The more realistic option might simply be trading AA without a contract. That would be unfortunate because no matter how well he does this year his value will take a hit if he's traded solo without a contract.

This is all frustrating because theres reason to think OEL could be available at the draft/deadline and at his age plus our potential trade chips, it could be a feasible and reasonable move for our rebuild but we really aren't that cap flexible without trades. I've cracked out on Capfriendly and there are plenty of ways to tank, Get OEL in a trade, tank again, sign OEL long-term, and end up with a trio of top 10 picks in addition to OEL, Larkin and Mantha leading the way on feasible deals....But it requires movement that this organization simply hasn't made in almost 2 decades.

OEL is not going to be available. If he is... it is certainly not for anything that won't hurt a great deal.

 

[Reddwit]

OEL is not going to be available. If he is... it is certainly not for anything that won't hurt a great deal.

OEL is absolutely going to be available. He has no reason to re-sign in Arizona and they very likely have no interest in paying him what he could get on the open market. He is a great trade chip who is already on the clock when it comes to trading him. Once the draft order is established, he'll become the belle of the ball if he's still with Arizona.

As for what it would cost to acquire him, Detroit would finally be in a position where they could have a number of great prospects, a pair of 1st rounders (at least) and a great young roster player who they don't seem married to despite his talent.

 

[Reddwit]

OEL is not going to be available. If he is... it is certainly not for anything that won't hurt a great deal.

OEL is absolutely going to be available. He has no reason to re-sign in Arizona and they very likely have no interest in paying him what he could get on the open market. He is a great trade chip who is already on the clock when it comes to trading him. Once the draft order is established, he'll become the belle of the ball if he's still with Arizona.

As for what it would cost to acquire him, Detroit would finally be in a position where they could have a number of great prospects, a pair of 1st rounders (at least) and a great young roster player who they don't seem married to despite his talent.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

OEL is absolutely going to be available. He has no reason to re-sign in Arizona and they very likely have no interest in paying him what he could get on the open market. He is a great trade chip who is already on the clock when it comes to trading him. Once the draft order is established, he'll become the belle of the ball if he's still with Arizona.

As for what it would cost to acquire him, Detroit would finally be in a position where they could have a number of great prospects, a pair of 1st rounders (at least) and a great young roster player who they don't seem married to despite his talent.

Who are these great prospects? Literally all I've heard is how the Wings have no elite talent and their farm system is garbage. That we should blow it all up and burn it down with gas because our executive team is just so damn incompetent that they can't possibly piece together a winning franchise ever again.

Andreas Athanasiou is no more than a toss-in in a trade for a guy like OEL. He's got flashy skill but he's always gonna be more sizzle than steak and guys like that don't ever pull as much in a trade as you think they should.

And unless the firsts are lottery picks, I don't see Arizona being interested in trading him. And at that point... I'd rather the Wings keep them for their Dahlin or similar shot at an OEL on an entry-level deal than the OEL who's gonna be paid $9M.

And ignoring all this... I feel like Arizona has to at some point act like a big boy franchise and work to keep a stud player there. You can't rebuild indefinitely.

 

[Flowah]

Who are these great prospects? Literally all I've heard is how the Wings have no elite talent and their farm system is garbage. That we should blow it all up and burn it down with gas because our executive team is just so damn incompetent that they can't possibly piece together a winning franchise ever again..

Mantha is making a case for elite but we'll see. Never heard anyone call our farm system "garbage." It's not great. It's average. But not "garbage."

A winning franchise? With this management? Probably not.

 

[Kyleftlx]

I find it hard to believe that the Red Wings will be able to sign Mantha/Larkin/AA without finding a way out of at least one other contract on their roster.

 

[RedWingzz]

I have a hard time believing Larkin and Mantha sign for what you suggested.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I find it hard to believe that the Red Wings will be able to sign Mantha/Larkin/AA without finding a way out of at least one other contract on their roster.

You're kidding right? We already have $13 million plus Franzen on LTIR gives us close to $17 million and if the rumored $80 million is correct that would give us close to $22 million to spend way more then enough to sign AA Larkin and Mantha plus afford the rest of the roster.

 

[Kyleftlx]

You're kidding right? We already have $13 million plus Franzen on LTIR gives us close to $17 million and if the rumored $80 million is correct that would give us close to $22 million to spend way more then enough to sign AA Larkin and Mantha plus afford the rest of the roster.

I don't know how likely it is that it jumps to $80. That would be a lifesaver. I think at least one of those 3 guys are going to get locked up long term. Athanasiou has shown he is willing to make things complicated, so whatever his output ends up being, he will max out his contract as best he can. Mantha/Larkin, if either of them can go a full 82 game schedule of nearing PPG production, which they've both done for a quarter of the season so far, that is going to be expensive. I also have to think that the guy in charge at this point is going to want to have money leftover to sign someone to step in for Green, which is also costly. I don't think you can bank on Kronwall, a rising cap, or any other "what if" scenario until they actually happen. I don't think Kronwall has really given any indication that he plans to retire after this year yet, although it would be wonderful to see it happen at this point.

Who knows. I just think there's gotta be something happening soon with this roster.

 

[ShelbyZ]

I almost wonder if AA/Larkin/Mantha all finish the season at the pace they are currently at, would that make Tatar (their only sizable forward contract not locked in by a NTC/NMC other than Zetterberg, and who is currently pretty much invisible) expendable?

 

[Reddwit]

Who are these great prospects? Literally all I've heard is how the Wings have no elite talent and their farm system is garbage. That we should blow it all up and burn it down with gas because our executive team is just so damn incompetent that they can't possibly piece together a winning franchise ever again.

Andreas Athanasiou is no more than a toss-in in a trade for a guy like OEL. He's got flashy skill but he's always gonna be more sizzle than steak and guys like that don't ever pull as much in a trade as you think they should.

And unless the firsts are lottery picks, I don't see Arizona being interested in trading him. And at that point... I'd rather the Wings keep them for their Dahlin or similar shot at an OEL on an entry-level deal than the OEL who's gonna be paid $9M.

And ignoring all this... I feel like Arizona has to at some point act like a big boy franchise and work to keep a stud player there. You can't rebuild indefinitely.

Wow. If you want to have a discussion, we can do that. If you want to be a drama queen and use hyperbole as your foundation, then you can go talk to a wall.

First of all, no one has ever made the allegations about our farm that you have. Rasmussen, Cholo, Hronek, and Svechnikov are all plenty good.

Second, Athanasiou is not a throw-in. I understand that you were part of the anti-AA cadre during contract negotiations, but please point me in the direction of a 6’2” forward faster than record-breaking Larkin who happily plays the PK and is on pace for 37 goals when people were harping on him for potentially not being a 20 goal scorer not 6 weeks ago.

Third, this team has more than just prospects and AA to offer. Arizona would likely welcome a reasonably-priced vet D if they were trading OEL (Daley). Their winger depth is not great either (Nyquist). And their goaltending is a shit show at worst and a question mark at best (Howard). Pair any combo of those guys with any combo of prospects/first/retention and you’ve got yourself the best quantity offer for a single player in at least 20 years.

Lastly, Arizona may want to act like a big boy organization, but their arena situation is still constantly in flux, their attendance sucks, they’re a lottery team despite their best efforts, they hired a child to be their GM to skimp on salary and have top-to-bottom organizational control, and they’re being investigated for labor violations as we speak. They can put on their big boy pants all they want but OEL has been through 8 years of bullshit already and can ask for $12M without a second thought from a team who is still entertaining cap dump offers for players whose cap hit outweighs their salary because they’re cheap.

 

[Winger98]

I almost wonder if AA/Larkin/Mantha all finish the season at the pace they are currently at, would that make Tatar (their only sizable forward contract not locked in by a NTC/NMC other than Zetterberg, and who is currently pretty much invisible) expendable?

I think Tatar has been expendable. Good player, a secondary scorer, but not someone who is going to carry this team. If we could have gotten a top 3/4 at any point the past couple of years, I think Holland pulls that trigger.

 

[TheOtherOne]

It's weird that I'm in the minority on this but damn i would really hate to lose Green. He is the entirety of our offense from the defense. Who is going to pass to our forwards without Green? Do you guys want to watch Mantha and Larkin constantly chasing dump ins because that's all our D is capable of? For 20 or 25 minutes a game we actually have a quarterback who can control play and entertain. I don't want to give that up.

But then again I was always and always will be completely 100% anti tank, so i guess I'm just against the grain on these kinds of things.

 

[Oddbob]

It's weird that I'm in the minority on this but damn i would really hate to lose Green. He is the entirety of our offense from the defense. Who is going to pass to our forwards without Green? Do you guys want to watch Mantha and Larkin constantly chasing dump ins because that's all our D is capable of? For 20 or 25 minutes a game we actually have a quarterback who can control play and entertain. I don't want to give that up.

But then again I was always and always will be completely 100% anti tank, so i guess I'm just against the grain on these kinds of things.

I agree with Green obviously being valuable, but if we can get a 1st +, we have to do it, as we need fresh new talent. We can always bring him back in the offseason. I think even if we are in a playoff spot it would be a long term mistake not to cash in on what we can get for him.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Wow. If you want to have a discussion, we can do that. If you want to be a drama queen and use hyperbole as your foundation, then you can go talk to a wall.

First of all, no one has ever made the allegations about our farm that you have. Rasmussen, Cholo, Hronek, and Svechnikov are all plenty good.

Second, Athanasiou is not a throw-in. I understand that you were part of the anti-AA cadre during contract negotiations, but please point me in the direction of a 6’2” forward faster than record-breaking Larkin who happily plays the PK and is on pace for 37 goals when people were harping on him for potentially not being a 20 goal scorer not 6 weeks ago.

Third, this team has more than just prospects and AA to offer. Arizona would likely welcome a reasonably-priced vet D if they were trading OEL (Daley). Their winger depth is not great either (Nyquist). And their goaltending is a **** show at worst and a question mark at best (Howard). Pair any combo of those guys with any combo of prospects/first/retention and you’ve got yourself the best quantity offer for a single player in at least 20 years.

Lastly, Arizona may want to act like a big boy organization, but their arena situation is still constantly in flux, their attendance sucks, they’re a lottery team despite their best efforts, they hired a child to be their GM to skimp on salary and have top-to-bottom organizational control, and they’re being investigated for labor violations as we speak. They can put on their big boy pants all they want but OEL has been through 8 years of bull**** already and can ask for $12M without a second thought from a team who is still entertaining cap dump offers for players whose cap hit outweighs their salary because they’re cheap.

1) Anti-AA is a bit reductive of an argument. I was saying that he was worth 2x1.9 at most. I was saying that we shouldn't move from what we offered. That he's a good player, but not worth the headache of a protracted negotiation when he doesn't have the leverage. That if he was gonna play the KHL card and all that kind of stuff to try to get money, we are likely better without him in a global sense. I never said he was a bad hockey player. Just not worth going above what we ended up paying him.

2) The whole scorched earth rebuild that a decent number of people around here are promoting is saying exactly that though. That we have nothing of worth in our system as it stands, so we need to suck really really bad so we can possibly get something of worth. And while I agree with you that Svech, Hronek, Cholo, and Razzy are all pretty good... Pretty good doesn't land you a 1D. In terms of piecing together a trade for a guy like OEL, if you're not a blue chip prospect, you may as well be worthless. Leading to....

3) While AA might not be a throw-in (that was a little harsh), he's not the centerpiece in a package for OEL. You can bang the 6'2" faster than Larkin and potential drum all you want... but teams see when he takes plays and games off. While it's probably overblown in how prevalent it is in his game, it's a strike against him. And guys with a strike like that against them get really downgraded in a trade offer if you're trying to land a #1D. You think Chayka is going to want to trade the face of Arizona's franchise when it is a likelihood that at some point the best roster player he's getting back will be benched for effort by his coach? If you can guarantee AA plays at what he's building to this season, we revisit the discussion. But he's not far enough removed from being so disengaged in games that Blashill actually sat him down for effort.

4) Daley + Nyquist + Howard + 1st? Why on earth would a team accept that for a 1D? Would the Predators have accepted Oduya, Sharp, Niemi, and a 1st for Suter when he walked? No... they'd try everything they could to sign him. How about if when Karlsson approaches FA and Ottawa doesn't want to back up the Brinks truck? Do you think they'd accept Daley + Tatar + Howard equivalent + 1st? Teams don't trade #1D for quantity. They're either going to get a blue chip prospect and other pieces or they're going to re-sign OEL for a boatload of cash.

5) Lastly, if Arizona has so many issues that excuse all of this... the time has come for the NHL to do something about it. Relocate them. If their market does not have the ability to support an NHL franchise, they shouldn't be there.

 

[Ezekial]

The anti-AA crowd was like 2 people.

I'd say there was a group that was more realistic in their view of contract negotiations than the other, and leave it at that.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Second, Athanasiou is not a throw-in. I understand that you were part of the anti-AA cadre during contract negotiations, but please point me in the direction of a 6’2” forward faster than record-breaking Larkin who happily plays the PK and is on pace for 37 goals when people were harping on him for potentially not being a 20 goal scorer not 6 weeks ago.

He was on pace for being a 30 goal scorer at points last year. He finished with 18.

Mantha was on pace for 80 something goals early on this year. He's still on pace for 41. That doesn't mean that he's a 40 goal scorer. You have to accomplish the thing. Pace stats are awesome. They're very helpful in judging players... but you run into issues when you extrapolate them. I mean, Larkin looked like a lock for 60 points his first year when he rocketed out of the gate... but he hit a wall with ferocity in the second half.

And he wasn't a 20 goal scorer last year... and I don't remember anyone saying anything about him not having the potential to be one. Pretty clearly if he's going to play a full season with similar minutes to what he got, he'd be a 20 goal scorer. However, he didn't score 20 in 16-17 and scoring 20 goals in a year is not a free pass to playing poor defense.

Lastly, he happily plays the PK because he's getting minutes now. He wanted ice time and it didn't matter the situation. Also, he's playing pretty well. Let's see him hit a slump and then see how happy he is killing penalties.

 

[Reddwit]

He was on pace for being a 30 goal scorer at points last year. He finished with 18.

Mantha was on pace for 80 something goals early on this year. He's still on pace for 41. That doesn't mean that he's a 40 goal scorer. You have to accomplish the thing. Pace stats are awesome. They're very helpful in judging players... but you run into issues when you extrapolate them. I mean, Larkin looked like a lock for 60 points his first year when he rocketed out of the gate... but he hit a wall with ferocity in the second half.

And he wasn't a 20 goal scorer last year... and I don't remember anyone saying anything about him not having the potential to be one. Pretty clearly if he's going to play a full season with similar minutes to what he got, he'd be a 20 goal scorer. However, he didn't score 20 in 16-17 and scoring 20 goals in a year is not a free pass to playing poor defense.

Lastly, he happily plays the PK because he's getting minutes now. He wanted ice time and it didn't matter the situation. Also, he's playing pretty well. Let's see him hit a slump and then see how happy he is killing penalties.

I'm not talking about being on pace for any goal total as though its some guarantee. If I actually thought AA were going to hit 30+ goals (although he could), I'd consider AA to be a centerpiece of the deal, which I literally have never thought or said. That was your reconstruction of my argument to make it sound ridiculous (same thing as claiming I said Nyquist+Howard+Daley+ 1st was a trade suggestion. Nowhere did I say that nor even allude to it, but I digress.) My point is that in the AA thread, there was a whole cadre of people who were harping on him for not being a 20 goal scorer last year (when he practically was in 3/4 of a season) and now he's on pace for 37 goals and is a quarter of the way to 20 goals. The point being that many on this board have been incredibly dismissive of AA despite the fact that he is the quintessential dynamic forward in today's NHL. Even now you're pointing out that he wasn't a 20 goal scorer despite scoring 18 goals in 60-something games. Come on. That's intentionally obtuse.His value is not as some throw-in, nor are teams going to overlook all of his physical and productive qualities just because he takes shifts off, which he has already improved upon.

 

[Reddwit]

1) Anti-AA is a bit reductive of an argument. I was saying that he was worth 2x1.9 at most. I was saying that we shouldn't move from what we offered. That he's a good player, but not worth the headache of a protracted negotiation when he doesn't have the leverage. That if he was gonna play the KHL card and all that kind of stuff to try to get money, we are likely better without him in a global sense. I never said he was a bad hockey player. Just not worth going above what we ended up paying him.

2) The whole scorched earth rebuild that a decent number of people around here are promoting is saying exactly that though. That we have nothing of worth in our system as it stands, so we need to suck really really bad so we can possibly get something of worth. And while I agree with you that Svech, Hronek, Cholo, and Razzy are all pretty good... Pretty good doesn't land you a 1D. In terms of piecing together a trade for a guy like OEL, if you're not a blue chip prospect, you may as well be worthless. Leading to....

3) While AA might not be a throw-in (that was a little harsh), he's not the centerpiece in a package for OEL. You can bang the 6'2" faster than Larkin and potential drum all you want... but teams see when he takes plays and games off. While it's probably overblown in how prevalent it is in his game, it's a strike against him. And guys with a strike like that against them get really downgraded in a trade offer if you're trying to land a #1D. You think Chayka is going to want to trade the face of Arizona's franchise when it is a likelihood that at some point the best roster player he's getting back will be benched for effort by his coach? If you can guarantee AA plays at what he's building to this season, we revisit the discussion. But he's not far enough removed from being so disengaged in games that Blashill actually sat him down for effort.

4) Daley + Nyquist + Howard + 1st? Why on earth would a team accept that for a 1D? Would the Predators have accepted Oduya, Sharp, Niemi, and a 1st for Suter when he walked? No... they'd try everything they could to sign him. How about if when Karlsson approaches FA and Ottawa doesn't want to back up the Brinks truck? Do you think they'd accept Daley + Tatar + Howard equivalent + 1st? Teams don't trade #1D for quantity. They're either going to get a blue chip prospect and other pieces or they're going to re-sign OEL for a boatload of cash.

5) Lastly, if Arizona has so many issues that excuse all of this... the time has come for the NHL to do something about it. Relocate them. If their market does not have the ability to support an NHL franchise, they shouldn't be there.

(1) You're right. Anti-AA is reductive. But $1.9M at most for him comes off as very dismissive of his skill and how he's converted it into NHL value. But AA isn't the centerpoint of this conversation, so lets leave it at that.

(2) Again, I think you're being hyperbolic with that argument. The big argument that people make is we don't have the elite players at positions of need. That's much different than not having anything in the system. Also, Arizona isn't going to be holding out for a blue chip prospect. They aren't rebuilding. They aren't looking to re-enter a rebuild either. They're looking to compete. They've already invested a lot in Hammer, Stepan, Goligoski, and even Demers.

(3) Never did I say AA was the centerpiece of the deal. Never did I even allude to it or think it. But your argument against him is ridiculous. He's automatically downgraded because he has a strike against him? Arizona isn't getting a perfect player in return for OEL no matter how much they want him. And now you're suggesting that AA is likely to be benched by his coach for effort as part of the argument against him? AA is not some fully mature and developed player and he isn't being traded today. I think you're living in some world where star players get traded in a vacuum. That never happens. OEL may be the face of the franchise and a #1D, but Arizona isn't going to be able to ask for whatever they want from whoever. They aren't trading a #1D. They're trading a #1D whose contract is close to negotiation, has no incentive to re-sign with the messiest franchise in the league, and can ask for an 8 figure salary without blinking.

4) Please point out where I proposed a Nyquist + Howard + Daley + 1st proposal. I'll wait. What I actually said was "Pair any combo of those guys with any combo of prospects/first/retention and you’ve got yourself the best quantity offer for a single player in at least 20 years." That means any combination of Nyquist (with or without retention), Howard (with or without retention), Daley (with or without retention), AA, 1sts, 2nds, 3rds, Rasmussen, Cholowski, Svechnikov, or Hronek. Athanasiou + Howard (@ $3.5M) + 1st + 2nd + Hronek. Nyquist signed to an extention + AA + 1st + Daley and a cap dump from Arizona. AA + Daley + 1st + 2nd + Cholowski. Its almost as if Detroit can choose from a multitude of options to create an attractive proposal designed for a non-rebuilding team that would like a combination of proven players + young players + futures.

5) There has been talk of relocating Arizona for years. They've had problems coming out their ears for years. The whole premise of OEL being on the table is that he has no reason to re-sign with the shittiest of shitty franchises that hasn't been able to get its shit together for the entirety of his relationship with the team.

 

[Redder Winger]

He was on pace for being a 30 goal scorer at points last year. He finished with 18.

Mantha was on pace for 80 something goals early on this year. He's still on pace for 41. That doesn't mean that he's a 40 goal scorer. You have to accomplish the thing. Pace stats are awesome. They're very helpful in judging players... but you run into issues when you extrapolate them. I mean, Larkin looked like a lock for 60 points his first year when he rocketed out of the gate... but he hit a wall with ferocity in the second half.

And he wasn't a 20 goal scorer last year... and I don't remember anyone saying anything about him not having the potential to be one. Pretty clearly if he's going to play a full season with similar minutes to what he got, he'd be a 20 goal scorer. However, he didn't score 20 in 16-17 and scoring 20 goals in a year is not a free pass to playing poor defense.

Lastly, he happily plays the PK because he's getting minutes now. He wanted ice time and it didn't matter the situation. Also, he's playing pretty well. Let's see him hit a slump and then see how happy he is killing penalties.

You know what, give Athanasiou 1400 minutes like Tatar had last year.
Give him a Zetterberg for 800 minutes, like Nyquist or Larkin or Tatar have had.
And then talk to me about "You have to do it."

Because nobody scores 30 goals in 862 minutes.
There were 31 30-goal guys in the NHL. The lowest-minute guy was Evgeny Malkin (1154).

As it is, Athanasiou was 65th in even strength goals last year with 17.
That means about two players per team finished with more goals.
That's impressive company.
That's not factoring ice time.

You factor ice time, nobody in the league with more even strength goals played less minutes.

I'm not sure why Red Wings fans resist these obvious numbers. Are they still fighting the contract fight? Do they hate Athanasiou's eyebrows? Do they love Jeff Blashill's game management?

They want more defense?
How many goal-scoring wingers are known for defense? Maybe Hossa?
Patrick Kane and Phil Kessell are terrible defensive players. And yet their teams have won 5 cups in the last 9 years or so.
Tomas Holmstrom was a terrible defensive player. Todd Bertuzzi was awful defensively.

Darren Helm, in my opinion, is one of the dumbest guys in the defensive zone I've ever seen. For all his hustle, he's constantly lin the wrong place.

 

[TatarTangle]

Not wise to throw names like Patrick Kane, Kessel, Holmstrom, and Bertuzzi in the same ring as AA even if you aren't trying to draw comparisons.

Like every player HFBoards is polarizing on, you just have to find a middle ground.

He's not a guy you're going to throw on the ice in a key situatuation or against other top players because he'll get caught, burned, exposed, etc. Someone like a prime Zetterberg would eat AA and dook him out in the morning.

Any other situation you let him skate and make stuff happen. Unless he improves drastically in certain areas he's probably a 25-25 guy with semi-limited IT. Don't think there is anything wrong with that.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

(2) Again, I think you're being hyperbolic with that argument. The big argument that people make is we don't have the elite players at positions of need. That's much different than not having anything in the system. Also, Arizona isn't going to be holding out for a blue chip prospect. They aren't rebuilding. They aren't looking to re-enter a rebuild either. They're looking to compete. They've already invested a lot in Hammer, Stepan, Goligoski, and even Demers.

(3) Never did I say AA was the centerpiece of the deal. Never did I even allude to it or think it. But your argument against him is ridiculous. He's automatically downgraded because he has a strike against him? Arizona isn't getting a perfect player in return for OEL no matter how much they want him. And now you're suggesting that AA is likely to be benched by his coach for effort as part of the argument against him? AA is not some fully mature and developed player and he isn't being traded today. I think you're living in some world where star players get traded in a vacuum. That never happens. OEL may be the face of the franchise and a #1D, but Arizona isn't going to be able to ask for whatever they want from whoever. They aren't trading a #1D. They're trading a #1D whose contract is close to negotiation, has no incentive to re-sign with the messiest franchise in the league, and can ask for an 8 figure salary without blinking.

4) Please point out where I proposed a Nyquist + Howard + Daley + 1st proposal. I'll wait. What I actually said was "Pair any combo of those guys with any combo of prospects/first/retention and you’ve got yourself the best quantity offer for a single player in at least 20 years." That means any combination of Nyquist (with or without retention), Howard (with or without retention), Daley (with or without retention), AA, 1sts, 2nds, 3rds, Rasmussen, Cholowski, Svechnikov, or Hronek. Athanasiou + Howard (@ $3.5M) + 1st + 2nd + Hronek. Nyquist signed to an extention + AA + 1st + Daley and a cap dump from Arizona. AA + Daley + 1st + 2nd + Cholowski. Its almost as if Detroit can choose from a multitude of options to create an attractive proposal designed for a non-rebuilding team that would like a combination of proven players + young players + futures.

5) There has been talk of relocating Arizona for years. They've had problems coming out their ears for years. The whole premise of OEL being on the table is that he has no reason to re-sign with the ****tiest of ****ty franchises that hasn't been able to get its **** together for the entirety of his relationship with the team.

Put simply, if Arizona wants to compete... they would be further along by keeping OEL in town at 10M+ rather than spreading 10M around on a replacement D (Daley), a RW (Nyquist), and some combo of young players and picks. 1 elite D is worth far more than several okay players.

None of those "attractive" proposals are even close to that. You're thinking from the Wings side. Even if you're not interested in paying OEL 10M, you could something with more utility for a team than an okay top 4D who you could have signed for 3.3M this summer, an okay top 6 wing, some lotto pulls from the Wings farm system that admittedly is lacking elite upside, and hoping that a team that you're dealing Oliver Ekman Larsson to is going to drop in the standings. Quantity for quality deals are never attractive, even if they're "the most attractive quantity for quality proposal in 20 years".

You don't get discounts on #1Ds because they want #1D money. Arizona will re-sign him for 10M+ (if he even actually asks for that, I think the "desire to get out of hell" aspect is overblown). You might think that package is attractive, but any combo of Wings assets in a deal for OEL? I would bet you a large amount of money that it would easily be trumped by another team. They'd go quality and wouldn't try to stack up 3 quarters, two dimes and a nickel for a guy who is an elite D in this league.

And if Arizona wants to compete... they won't want ANY of Detroit's prospects that are any good. Cholo, Razzy, Hronek, Svech? It's far from guaranteed that they'll actually succeed and if they do... Rasmussen is about three years off, Cholo the same, Hronek at minimum two, and Svech is still a year or so. If they want to compete, they're going to want Mantha or Larkin. AA looks like he has star potential... but I mean, other teams saw what went on with his contract and with Blashill benching him. He doesn't carry blue chip trade value. He just doesn't... no matter how much any of us like him as a player.

And hell, if I'm Arizona, I extend him for 9-10M while asking him where he wanted to go. Work out a deal with an extension in place. Arizona has literally no reason to trade OEL for quantity.

 

[TheMule93]

OEL is overrated, his play doesn't justify $10m. Karlsson is worth that and more, not OEL. Hedman is the only other dman in the league that would be worth $10m IMO.

 

[Winger98]

OEL is overrated, his play doesn't justify $10m. Karlsson is worth that and more, not OEL. Hedman is the only other dman in the league that would be worth $10m IMO.

Karlsson will have that opportunity in a year. With the cap going up and high-end blueliners still being a rare commodity, I wouldn't be so stingy with that $10m. Pietrangelo, Doughty, Weber, Suter, Subban, and Letang are all guys who could demand and justify that if they hit the open market today. Big Buff could probably make an argument for it as well. I mean, put any of them in Detroit eating 25 minutes a night in all situations, punching in 40+ points, and see how drastically our blueline improves.

 

[theYman]

Agree, some trades are necessary. Finding willing trade partners for our unwanted assets will be difficult though.

Would like to see Cholowski make the team out of camp next year. Organisation seemed to be priming him for a role in the very near future with heavy minutes in pre-season.

DeKeyser - Daley
Ericsson - Jensen
Cholowski - .......

We're going to need some RD, hurry up Hronek.

With Saarijarvi getting some looks next year maybe?