2018-19 Red Wings

[Redder Winger]

Here are the UFAs
Mike Green.
David Booth.

If the Red Wings fall out of playoff contention, Green will likely be traded.
If they make the playoffs, I still think it's unlikely Green comes back.

RFAs
Larkin - Will be signed
Mantha - Will be signed
Athanasiou - Will be signed
Frk - Will be signed
Wilson - Probably not signed or signed for cheap, so he can be demoted at no cap hit.
Mrazek - Who knows?

Retirements
Kronwall - Salary dips to $1.75M. Good chance he retires. If not, a good chance he LTIRs
Zetterberg - Salary dips to $3.35M. Possible he retires or LTIRs, but I think he plays one more year

Without even considering cap considerations:

Forwards
Nyquist Zetterberg Mantha
Abdelkader Larkin Tatar
Bertuzzi Athanasiou Frk
Helm Nielsen Glendening
(Turgeon, , Holmstrom, )
Don't see Rasmussen or Svech as possibilities unless something changes in the top 9. One could supplant Frk.

Defense (No Green, No Kronwall
Dekeyser Jensen
Ericsson Daley
XO Hicketts
Witkowski

Goal
Howard
Mrazek (Coreau, if Mrazek is gone).


UFAs.
Maybe the Wings sign a defenseman. There's no room up front.
On defense the options are
Green.
Enstrom.
Jack Johnson.
John Carlson (he'll be too expensive).
Gudbranson.
Ian Cole.

I can see the Wings making a pitch for Johnson and/or Cole if they have cap room - and that's a giant if.
Assume Green is gone, Mrazek leaves unqualified and Kronwall LTIRs.

RFAs
Athanasiou 3x2.6
Bertuzzi 2x.7
Coreau 2x.7
Frk 1 x .8
Larkin 3x3.6
Mantha 2x3.6

We would have about $4.5M left for a defenseman assuming a flat cap.

Would Jack Johnson sign a 5 year deal x 4.5M in Detroit if Holland offered it?

Click to read more...

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Jack Johnson isn't coming to Detroit for only 4.5 million. This is gonna be his last big contract and he is bankrupt since his parents stole most of his money.

I wouldn't be surprised if Green sticks around if he doesn't care about winning. Holland will certainly try to keep him in Detroit since the Wings farm system is a barren wasteland for defenseman.

 

[Hammettf2b]

No way Z retires

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

So Larkin is on pace for 72 points this season and Mantha 67 points this season. And you honestly believe that they will get $3.6 million on 3 and 2 year bridge deals respectfully no way both will probably get in the 5x5M range next summer.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

At the earliest Z might retire in the 2019/2020 season when his real money drops to $1 million each for his last two seasons. But he wont retire next year.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

So Larkin is on pace for 72 points this season and Mantha 67 points this season. And you honestly believe that they will get $3.6 million on 3 and 2 year bridge deals respectfully no way both will probably get in the 5x5M range next summer.

The Wings would be better off giving them 6-7 year contracts now then a 2-3 year bridge deal. It's not like the next 2-3 years matter. Wings need to be thinking about five years from now.

 

[njx9]

Ian Cole just feels like the kind of crap veteran this front office would target and give 3+ years to.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

The Wings would be better off giving them 6-7 year contracts now then a 2-3 year bridge deal. It's not like the next 2-3 years matter. Wings need to be thinking about five years from now.

Exactly that's pretty much to what i'm eluding at here. Both Larkin and Mantha are our core pieces better to get them locked up long term cheap now then wait until they get closer to UFA status and cost us a fortune later down the road.

 

[Frk It]

Jack Johnson isn't coming to Detroit for only 4.5 million. This is gonna be his last big contract and he is bankrupt since his parents stole most of his money.

I wouldn't be surprised if Green sticks around if he doesn't care about winning. Holland will certainly try to keep him in Detroit since the Wings farm system is a barren wasteland for defenseman.

He might need the money, but he doesn’t really have a leg to stand on to ask for that with his play the last 2 seasons.

He’d come in at something closer to what Daley got. And I️ don’t even think we’ll have that much cap space next summer.

So Larkin is on pace for 72 points this season and Mantha 67 points this season. And you honestly believe that they will get $3.6 million on 3 and 2 year bridge deals respectfully no way both will probably get in the 5x5M range next summer.

Larkin won’t get a 5 year deal, that would take him right to UFA.

 

[ShelbyZ]

IMO, probably not much changes up front. All forward RFAs (including Wilson) get re-signed and resume their spots on the NHL team. Booth obviously leaves as a UFA and Bertuzzi slides into the opening on the regular roster created by his departure. I would think only Witkowski's spot would be in jeopardy at camp if someone else steals a regular spot. Even if he lights up the preseason, Svechnikov probably still at least starts in GR.

On the back end, I agree that Green is likely a goner, hopefully through a trade at the deadline this season. Although I can see Holland trying to keep him in the fold, either by extending him or giving him the "ol' Keith Tkachuk" (trading him as a rental and then re-signing him as a UFA). I also agree that Kronwall probably decides that it'll be better to collect his smaller pay checks while on LTIR. With that said, Holland probably takes the extra allowance over the max and on 7/1/18 fearing the loss of two veteran dmen, goes all in on Carlson, likely fails to get him and then settles for TWO #3-6 guys. One longer term (3 or more years in the $4-6M range, Green/Enstrom/Johnson/Hamhuis/etc) and one short term (1-2 years, $1-3M, Cole/Beauchemin/Oduya/Seidenberg/Garrison/Quincey retread/Bieksa/etc.

In goal, I think a lot will depend on how this year shakes out. It's probably likely that Mrazek doesn't get qualified (and maybe gets traded at the TDL if they make the QO decision by then). I think if Coreau gets a look at the NHL level this season and looks good, they sign him to a cheap one way and go with Howard/Coreau tandem for 18/19. However, if Coreau looks mediocre to poor at the NHL level and doesn't exactly tear it up in GR, they likely move on and grab an affordable #1B/#2/reclamation-project on the UFA market (Ward/Lack/Hutchinson/Johnson/Lehtonen/Pavelec/Khudobin/Hutton/Bernier/Kuember/etc etc.

IMO, Jack Johnson has Holland written all over him and is already at the top of their list... I'm sure being a U of M guy gets him brownie points. I do know that he also has some extended family in the area (that maybe didn't steal from him?). But I'm thinking he takes the biggest and longest overpayment offered to make up for what his parents took.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

He might need the money, but he doesn’t really have a leg to stand on to ask for that with his play the last 2 seasons.

He’d come in at something closer to what Daley got. And I️ don’t even think we’ll have that much cap space next summer.



Larkin won’t get a 5 year deal, that would take him right to UFA.

I was just saying 5x5 it's probably more like 6 or 7 years in that range or so.

 

[raymond23]

We NEED to trade some of these guys. Its unbelievable how little flexibility this roster has.

I'm also confused by the unwillingness to make any sort of changes to the defense besides veteran acquisitions.

Looking at that roster hurts.

 

[ShelbyZ]

We NEED to trade some of these guys. Its unbelievable how little flexibility this roster has.

I'm also confused by the unwillingness to make any sort of changes to the defense besides veteran acquisitions.

Looking at that roster hurts.

I think most in here are trying convey how the Red Wings management is likely to deal with it, and not exactly what the most ideal scenarios might be. Given the impending departure of Green and the possibility of an LTIR'd Kronwall, the likely scenario is that we see Holland hit the sign a vet or two panic button.

 

[TatarTangle]

There isn't much to look forward in terms of success for this team so I'm most looking forward to the crap show of negotiating AA's next contract. Gonna be interesting to see how AA and his agent handle it.

 

[ShelbyZ]

As far as cap space/spending for 18/19:

With no one on LTIR: $12,824,621.00 + whatever the max increase is
With Franzen on LTIR: $16,779,166 + whatever the max increase is
With Franzen and Kronwall on LTIR: $21,529,166 + whatever the max increase is

 

[Leronziia]

Agree, some trades are necessary. Finding willing trade partners for our unwanted assets will be difficult though.

Would like to see Cholowski make the team out of camp next year. Organisation seemed to be priming him for a role in the very near future with heavy minutes in pre-season.

DeKeyser - Daley
Ericsson - Jensen
Cholowski - .......

We're going to need some RD, hurry up Hronek.

 

[Redder Winger]

Jack Johnson isn't coming to Detroit for only 4.5 million. This is gonna be his last big contract and he is bankrupt since his parents stole most of his money.

I wouldn't be surprised if Green sticks around if he doesn't care about winning. Holland will certainly try to keep him in Detroit since the Wings farm system is a barren wasteland for defenseman.

I don't see Johnson getting a huge contract. His production hasn't been very good in CBus.
His advanced stats make it look worse.
If he can get a longterm deal out of Holland, I can see him taking it.

 

[Redder Winger]

So Larkin is on pace for 72 points this season and Mantha 67 points this season. And you honestly believe that they will get $3.6 million on 3 and 2 year bridge deals respectfully no way both will probably get in the 5x5M range next summer.

There's no rush on my end to overpay these guys.
If you give these guys $5-6M you're at the cap after losing Green and Mrazek and replacing them with prospects.
I don't see Holland operating this way.

Save on the bridge deals and maybe you can replace Green or even resign him.
IMO, that will be Holland's play.

 

[Electric Eric]

Oof, just looked into 2018s UFA class and boy oh boy is it lacking.

Lots of 'meh' players are going to get paid.

 

[ShelbyZ]

IIRC, Jack Johnson has to cough up a certain % of his salary until 2021 to pay back debtors as part of his bankruptcy. I think after it's all said and done he gets something like $250k for "living expenses" each of the last 2 years of his current deal. So I would assume he simply takes the longest term with the biggest salary offered so he can at least get something if he's still playing past 2021 or gets bought out. Probably doesn't actually care where it comes from.

He's probably praying that a good bit of the UFA bound dmen get extended or find homes before 7/1/18 so he can cash in on a GM desperate to get blueline help.

 

[ShelbyZ]

And as far as what Jack Johnson will get paid... If Brendan Smith can get 4 x 4.35 before even hitting the open market, Johnson easily nets over $5M a season this summer.

 

[Pavels Dog]

We NEED to trade some of these guys. Its unbelievable how little flexibility this roster has.

I'm also confused by the unwillingness to make any sort of changes to the defense besides veteran acquisitions.

Looking at that roster hurts.

There really isn't much to be done. Top pairing d-men don't hit free agency. To acquire one in a trade, you usually either have to give up an equal level d-man (Weber for Suter) or overpay (Hall for Larsson). We don't have the assets for those types of trades. What we could do is either overpay in FA for guys like Alzner or possibly Shattenkirk, or throw a massive package (talking multiple 1sts + prospects) together for some D that could be available, which probably wouldn't be an elite #1 anyway.

We've drafted something like 12 d-men in the last two or three drafts. We've picked up guys like Hicketts, Russo and Sulak via free agency. Daley may be a veteran but his playstyle is still a good addition to our roster. Things are being done, but there's no quick fix to be had. Our current group of D prospects + an '18 first round D-man is going to start producing some results in 1-2 years.

 

[Lampedampe]

It will be a good tank year for sure. We won't have the cap space to get any substantial help the defense with the way Larkin and Mantha are playing.

That defense looks worse than what teams like Buffalo/Edmonton/Toronto iced in their real tank years. Offense looks good though, plenty of depth and decent top-6.

Hopefully Hronek and cholowski can be proper nhl defenders by 2019/2020, it's only first then we might start to building towards a solid defensive core.

And I really hope one of the goalies we've drafted in recent rounds pan out because otherwise we'll have a major goalie issue once we can start to be competative again.

 

[Shaman464]

There's no rush on my end to overpay these guys.
If you give these guys $5-6M you're at the cap after losing Green and Mrazek and replacing them with prospects.
I don't see Holland operating this way.

Save on the bridge deals and maybe you can replace Green or even resign him.
IMO, that will be Holland's play.

Overpay them? If they don't slump later this season they can pretty much name their terms. Locking them up longer term will save the team money.

 

[Reddwit]

I'm not sober so I hope this all makes sense but locking up Larkin and Mantha now is imperative.

(1) If we lock them up to long-term deals now and they continue to polish their game, they're likely signed to Bo Horvat/David Pastrnak-esque deals and give us a stable future with 2 key players on good-to-great deals.
(2) If we lock them up to short-term deals now and they continue to polish their game, then they're likely signed to Ryan Johansen/Jonathan Toews money 2-3 years from now at an older age. Ouch.
(3) If we lock them up to long term deals now OR short-term deals now and they never really progress beyond consistent 50 point players, then we'd end up paying them probably the same amount - long-term because we banked on them being great players and short-term because being a proven, consistent 50 point player is very valuable given their respective packages (Larkin's position/skating/leadership and Mantha's size/skating). Remember that an incomplete Tatar just got $5.3M out of us.
(4) If we lock them up to long-term deals now OR short-term deals and they completely flame out, then the organization is f***ed no matter what their contracts look like.

The problem is, we're in a very tough spot there. If we assume both Mantha and Larkin take the Horvat deal (5.5 x 6 years - a very favorable deal with the way they've played) then we're still left with just $5.7M (that's with Franzen's entire contract buried) for AA, a back-up goalie, and 3 forwards. So if we're signing Frk/Coreau to bare-bones deals @ $700k and promoting the cheapest D/F options in Hicketts and Turgeon (sorry, Bert and Svech), then we still only have $3M to sign AA with and zero flexibility after that. Given what AA is making this year and the fact that he already has 5 goals in 11 games, there isn't much reason to think that'll pan out. AA has no incentive to sign another 1 year deal, should be worth more than $3M easily, has no good will for the Wings, and is arbitration eligible. That's on top of the fact that Larkin, Mantha, Frk, and Coreau could easily ask for a collective additional $1.5M and deserve it.

There are ways around this but they either aren't our MO or they aren't value-maximizing. We could trade Howard and retain Mrazek at his QO or pick up a random UFA vet goalie on the cheap, we could trade Nyquist outright, or we could do both while retaining AA and giving everyone a realistic deal. But we aren't known for that brand of roster movement. We could also just sign one of Larkin/Mantha to a long-term deal but that risks allowing one of the two to enter contract negotiations with back-to-back big seasons. That's scarily reminiscent of RyJo's saga. The more realistic option might simply be trading AA without a contract. That would be unfortunate because no matter how well he does this year his value will take a hit if he's traded solo without a contract.

This is all frustrating because theres reason to think OEL could be available at the draft/deadline and at his age plus our potential trade chips, it could be a feasible and reasonable move for our rebuild but we really aren't that cap flexible without trades. I've cracked out on Capfriendly and there are plenty of ways to tank, Get OEL in a trade, tank again, sign OEL long-term, and end up with a trio of top 10 picks in addition to OEL, Larkin and Mantha leading the way on feasible deals....But it requires movement that this organization simply hasn't made in almost 2 decades.