2017-2018 Standings Tracker

[Henkka]

If we finish 6th, the combined odds for 7th to 15th to win a TOP3 pick is 99.7%.

So, in most probable cases, one team from the 7-15 group will will get a TOP3 pick. That will drop the 6th team to 7th, if they don't win the TOP3 pick by themselves.

So if you are 6th worst:

7.5% chance for 1st overall
23.3% chance for TOP3 pick
~77% chance to drop 1 position


So far the current system history has been:
- Toronto was league-last at 2016, did win 1st overall, with 20% probablility. There was 80% chance not to win, so they got lucky and got Matthews.
- Winnipeg was 6th worst at 2016, did win the 2nd overall, with 7.8% probability. There was combined 84.7% chance not to win a TOP2 pick, so they got lucky and got Patrik Laine.
- Columbus was 4th last and did win the 3rd overall, passing 2 teams, EDM and VAN, from the standings position. Proability for a TOP3 pick was 29%.

I could think this was almost meaningless win for the CBJ in big picture, EDM would still have taken Puljujärvi and VAN a defenceman Juolevi. CBJ would have got their Dubois at 5th or 4th or 6th. Remember Jarmo trying to trade down knowing the situation, but no one was interested. He "hated" to pick Dubois that early, but there was a huge organizational need for a center after a Johansen-trade. I'm quite sure everybody at 3-7 got their favourable player.

At 2017 the percentage for 1st overall was lowered to 18% for the league-worst team (COL).
- New Jersey did win the 1st overall, with 8.5% probability. They were 5th worst at regular season. There was 91.5% chance not to win a 1st overall.
- Philadelphia did win the 2nd overall, with 2.4% probability. They were 13th worst at regular season. There was 95.4% chance not to win a TOP2 pick for Philadelphia
- Dallas did win the 3rd overall, with 6.4% probability. They were 8th worst at regular season. There was 81.0% probability not to win a TOP3 pick for Dallas.

So far...

League-Worst
4th worst
5th worst
6th worst
8th worst
13th worst

...have won the TOP3 pick. It's really a crapshoot. Especially that 2017 lottery was almost meaningless for teams positioned at 1-7, because there wasn't a huge talent drop at TOP3, like 2016 had it after TOP2 picks.

As for 2018, Dahlin is a real difference-maker like Matthews or Laine, but after that I think all teams from 2nd to 7th overall will get one of their favourable players.

If I combine the 2016-2017-2018 drafts:

1. Dahlin
2. Matthews
3. Laine
---------- talent drop
Hischier,Patrick, Keller, Dubois, Zadina, A.Svechnikov, M.Tkachuk, B.Tkachuk etc.
Juolevi, Heiskanen, Makar, Boqvist, Hughes, Bouchard etc.

If we don't win the lottery, I think it doesn't matter much if we are 2nd or 7th.

 

[Heaton]

There's some decent players on there. Arnott, Russ Courtnall, Nurse, Suter, Skinner, Voracek, Ulf Dahlen, and even our own Shawn Burr (RIP).

Yeah, Suter and Scheifele are the guys who got me the most excited.

 

[Pavels Dog]

If we finish 6th, the combined odds for 7th to 15th to win a TOP3 pick is 99.7%.

So, in most probable cases, one team from the 7-15 group will will get a TOP3 pick. That will drop the 6th team to 7th, if they don't win the TOP3 pick by themselves.

So if you are 6th worst:

7.5% chance for 1st overall
23.3% chance for TOP3 pick
~77% chance to drop 1 position


So far the current system history has been:
- Toronto was league-last at 2016, did win 1st overall, with 20% probablility. There was 80% chance not to win, so they got lucky and got Matthews.
- Winnipeg was 6th worst at 2016, did win the 2nd overall, with 7.8% probability. There was combined 84.7% chance not to win a TOP2 pick, so they got lucky and got Patrik Laine.
- Columbus was 4th last and did win the 3rd overall, passing 2 teams, EDM and VAN, from the standings position. I could think this was meaningless win for the CBJ, EDM would still have taken Puljujärvi and VAN a defenceman Juolevi. CBJ would have got their Dubois at 5th or 4th or 6th. Remember Jarmo trying to trade down, but no one was interested. He "hated" to pick Dubois that early, but there was a huge need for a center after a Johansen-trade. I'm quite sure everybody at 3-7 got their favourable player.


At 2017 the percentage for 1st overall was lowered to 18% for the league-worst team (COL).
- New Jersey did win the 1st overall, with 8.5% probability. They were 5th worst at regular season. There was 91.5% chance not to win a 1st overall.
- Philadelphia did win the 2nd overall, with 2.4% probability. They were 13th worst at regular season. There was 95.4% chance not to win a TOP2 pick for Philadelphia
- Dallas did win the 3rd overall, with 6.4% probability. They were 8th worst at regular season. There was 81.0% probability not to win a TOP3 pick for Dallas.

So far...

League-Worst
4th worst
5th worst
6th worst
8th worst
13th worst

...have won the TOP3 pick. It's really a crapshoot. Especially that 2017 lottery was almost meaningless for teams positioned at 1-7, because there wasn't a huge talent drop at TOP3, like 2016 had it after TOP2 picks.

As for 2018, Dahlin is a real difference-maker like Matthews or Laine, but after that I think all teams from 2nd to 7th overall will get one of their favourable players.

If I combine the 2016-2017-2018 drafts:

1. Dahlin
2. Matthews
3. Laine
---------- talent drop
Hischier,Patrick, Keller, Dubois, Zadina, A.Svechnikov, M.Tkachuk, B.Tkachuk etc.
Juolevi, Heiskanen, Makar, Boqvist, Hughes, Bouchard etc.

Lottery system is truly bonkers.

 

[Leadzedder]

Lacking a true update but damn, 3 wins in a row takes some of the fun out of the tank plan. Be lucky if we finish bottom 5.

Hoping for Montreal and Vancouver wins.

 

[Red Stanley]

Lacking a true update but damn, 3 wins in a row takes some of the fun out of the tank plan. Be lucky if we finish bottom 5.

Hoping for Montreal and Vancouver wins.

Games left against CBJ, MTL, NYI. MTL 3pts behind us with 5 games left. They play Pitt tonight. VAN 4pts back with a game in hand and winning as of right now. ARI 6pts back with 4 games left. If we lose all 3 games, there's an excellent chance we end up 4th worst with an outside chance at 3rd worst. If we lose to MTL I think at worst we land in 5th. Not much has changed really.

 

[chances14]

vancouver won tonight

 

[RedWingzz]

Looks like we're gonna pick 7th....

I'm guessing we get Hughes or Dobson, but hoping Bouchard somehow falls a bit and we can get him there. This team pisses me off. They can't even lose properly. When I finally want losses, we decide to get hot and go on a streak. I wouldn't be shocked if we win out and pass another team or 2.

 

[jkutswings]

Lacking a true update but damn, 3 wins in a row takes some of the fun out of the tank plan. Be lucky if we finish bottom 5.

Hoping for Montreal and Vancouver wins.

Had the goofballs lost those 3 games, they would be one point from the very bottom. I hope Howard gets the flu for a week, because Coreau was about the only guy left helping the tank.

 

[Henkka]

We have now 63% probability to finish 6th worst. 3 points gap to up and down.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

We’re getting dangerously close to 3 teams above us. Please just let us not pass them. We need to draft in the top 10

 

[jkutswings]

Arizona pasted St Louis 6-0. Good to see them and Vancouver win.

Hopefully Detroit still finds a way to draft in the top 5-7.

 

[ShanahanMan]

Well today couldn’t have gone worse. We win and Edmonton loses. 8th spot here we come.

Our remaining schedule is pretty lax. Forgot there’s the Islanders, who we play and will probably beat, which means they will leap frog us too.

Looking more and more like a 9th place finish incoming .

 

[Sparty]

We could pass three more teams if we win two out of three. Edmonton, Chicago and the Islanders are all tied at 74, obv assuming they lose all their games in regulation. Gotta lose at least one of MON and NYI.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I'm sure next season we would have been like, "Well, we drafted a really good defenseman with our 7th overall pick, but I really wish we had won those last 3 games where nobody cared and it meant nothing."

 

[FrolundaRedWings]

We need to start Coreau in 2/3 games left. We can't pass up EDM NYI or CHI, that would be depressing.

 

[Henkka]

My god are those crap teams really crap.

I was watching the MTL-NJD game, hoping points for Montreal.

Montreal had been leading after 40minutes. Game is 1-1 in the last 5 minutes, where Montreal will get a 5-on-3 power-play. They have some chances and Byron hits the crossbar. Then Petry hasn't used his point-shot at all on the PP, and when he will shoot first time, he shoots on the first blocking guy Zajac and of course, at same second, Taylor Hall comes from penalty box and gets a breakaway - and scores.

Then, stupid penalty on the last 2 mins for Montreal.

They weren't tanking or anything. Just so god damn unlucky bounce on a wrong moment.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

We haven't been able to count on Montreal to win a single game all year.

 

[ottawa]

We haven't been able to count on Montreal to win a single game all year.

What about when we beat you guys last week?

Big game coming up between the habs and the red wings next week, could easily decide a full standing position.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm sure next season we would have been like, "Well, we drafted a really good defenseman with our 7th overall pick, but I really wish we had won those last 3 games where nobody cared and it meant nothing."

Detroit: one of the few franchises that can simultaneously suck, and suck at sucking.

 

[Dotter]

What about when we beat you guys last week?

Big game coming up between the habs and the red wings next week, could easily decide a full standing position.

MTL is staying bottom 4. They need 3 points in 3 games just to tie us today. It's virtually impossible at the rate they're playing and Wings would need to not gain any points in their last 3.

Wings are finishing 5-7.

 

[ottawa]

MTL is staying bottom 4. They need 3 points in 3 games just to tie us today. It's virtually impossible at the rate they're playing and Wings would need to not to gain any points in their last 3.

Wings are finishing 5-7.

I think the habs beating the wings can really swing it in your guys' direction, and I think it's possible too. You guys f***ing suck . I'm hoping you guys can pull off a win against the habs but I don't see it. It'll be a close race.

 

[ottawa]

Here's a chart I made on our forum for those interested.

Standings (as of April 2nd)

------	Odds	Team	GP	Pts	Games Remaining
26	7.5%	Detroit	79	71	@ Columbus, vs Montreal, vs NY Islanders
27	8.5%	Vancouver	79	69	vs Columbus, vs Vegas, vs Arizona, @ Edmonton
28	9.5%	Montreal	79	68	vs Winnipeg, @ Detroit, @ Toronto
29	11.5%	Arizona	79	67	@ Calgary, @ Vancouver, vs Anaheim
30	13.5%	Ottawa	78	65	vs Winnipeg, @ Buffalo, @ Pittsburgh, @ Boston
31	18%	Buffalo	78	62	@ Toronto, vs Ottawa, @ Tampa Bay, @ Florida

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For our chances at a top 3 pick : NHL Lottery Simulator - NHL Draft Odds

If you guys lose to the habs then you guys are basically just 1 point ahead of us with each team having 2 games left. Anything could happen.

 

[Dotter]

I think the habs beating the wings can really swing it in your guys' direction, and I think it's possible too. You guys ****ing suck . I'm hoping you guys can pull off a win against the habs but I don't see it. It'll be a close race.

Possible. But the way each team is playing right now leads me to believe Wings are going to get more points while MTL will not. MTL beating the Wings in regulation would be huge, but Wings will need to lose all their games while MTL would need to score more points. Howard has been too solid.

 

[Marky9er]

Tie game habs/devil's 5 minutes to go, Habs get a 5v3. I celebrated too soon and watched nj score shorthanded.

 

[njx9]

Just feels like we're going to find a way to win out, pass EDM, CHI and NYI, and end up drafting 10th or so.

I don't even know if that's possible, but it's hard to find any reason to be optimistic about anything the team is doing right now.