2017-2018 Standings Tracker

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Hm. You made me think about it a bit more... I still think that the chances come out the same, since there are still only X valid combinations, and nothing else matters. I suppose the odds would be different where, if we said "On combination two, Detroit still has 8.5% chances", but given that 18.5% or whatever of the combinations don't matter, the fact that it's combination 2 is also irrelevant. The only next combination that matters is the one that's out of 851 or whatever combinations, and so forth (i.e. they could pull 234,897,289 ball combinations and none of them matter a whit if they don't match a valid, remaining combination).

That said, this feels like one of those math problems where my way feels too easy, so...

Either way, sorry tsweeney, if I seemed overly snarky in my response. Wasn't intended personally.

You're good man. I wasn't offended at all. I was saying that on any given pull, the chance that Detroit gets a pick does not change. The overall percentage increases because instead of a void pull ending the selection like a valid one would, they simply re-draw.

Each pull is an individual event with 1000 balls. The fact that 185 of them result in a re-draw may increase the overall percentage chance if one event happens, but for the second pull? The chance is 8.5%. For the third pull? 8.5% If both 2nd and 3rd were void pulls? 8.5%.

 

[waltdetroit]

Do you mean 21-25? (17 teams not in playoffs, VGS plus 3 teams higher in the standings lose OR VGS is the highest of the 8 1st round losers)

 

[HisNoodliness]

On the lottery discussion about odds I think I can accurately describe how it works. We have an 8.5% chance that any single draw will give us the first, second or third overall picks. However because after each pick the winner's combinations are void for subsequent pick, our odds of winning those picks increases. So if we don't win the first pick, the best outcome is for Buffalo to win it as that gives the greatest likelihood of a redraw and thus the greatest increase to our 8.5% chance of ultimately winning the pick. The reason the odds show us as having higher than an 8.5% chance of winning picks 2 and 3 is this effect. They calculated the weighted average number of void combinations after each pick and then increased our odds accordingly. We won't know our actual likelihood of getting the second pick until after the first pick is drawn.

 

[Ezekial]

Do you mean 21-25? (17 teams not in playoffs, VGS plus 3 teams higher in the standings lose OR VGS is the highest of the 8 1st round losers)

The basic order of the NHL Entry Draft is determined based on the standings of the teams in the previous season. As with the other major sports leagues, the basic draft order is intended to favour the teams with the weakest performance who presumably need the most improvement in their roster to compete with the other teams. Subject to the results of the NHL Draft Lottery (discussed below), the teams pick in the same order each round, with each team getting one pick per round. The basic order of the picks is determined as follows:[7]

1. The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs the previous season (picks 1–15)
2. The teams that made the playoffs in the previous season but did not win either their division in the regular season or play in the Conference Finals (picks 16–23 up to 27)
3. The teams that won their divisions in the previous season but did not play in the Conference Finals (potentially picks 24–27)
4. The teams that lose in Conference Finals (picks 28 and 29)
5. The team that was the runner-up in the Stanley Cup Finals (pick 30)
6. The team that won the Stanley Cup in the previous season (pick 31)

NHL Entry Draft - Wikipedia