2017-18 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

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Jetfaninflorida

Southernmost Jet Fan
Dec 13, 2013
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Oh, Oh. Corsi is a reverse indicator of future performance for the Jets. Now that our 5 on 5 Adj Corsi For is up near PIT and NSH, and our Corsi% last ten games is in elite territory, I am very afraid that we will go on a cold streak. Let's face it, we have had great success when we just Screwed the Corsi and won the Scorsi.
 
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garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Oh, Oh. Corsi is a reverse indicator of future performance for the Jets. Now that our 5 on 5 Adj Corsi For is up near PIT and NSH, and our Corsi% last ten games is in elite territory, I am very afraid that we will go on a cold streak. Let's face it, we have had great success when we just Screwed the Corsi and won the Scorsi.

The more accurate way to look at it:

Jets were not going to continue winning games like that, but fortunately started outshooting to diminish the pain when their percentages fell towards the mean.
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
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Oh, Oh. Corsi is a reverse indicator of future performance for the Jets. Now that our 5 on 5 Adj Corsi For is up near PIT and NSH, and our Corsi% last ten games is in elite territory, I am very afraid that we will go on a cold streak. Let's face it, we have had great success when we just Screwed the Corsi and won the Scorsi.
The Jets have had far greater success when they've won the Corsi (.785 points percentage vs. .571), so I'm pretty cool with them coming out ahead in shot attempts more often than not.
 
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Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
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LOL he should have said nobody hits Buff and lives to tell about it

 

Whileee

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"Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome your Bizarro Winnipeg Jets!"

Jets lines CF 2017 Dec.png
 

MrBoJangelz71

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Jan 14, 2014
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It's a process


Tracking true possession time, zone possession will be an improvement. Imagine they will be able to capture player speeds and distance travelled, might improve goalie analysis as well, puck speed, deflections, rebound tracking.
 

pucka lucka

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Apr 7, 2010
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Tracking true possession time, zone possession will be an improvement. Imagine they will be able to capture player speeds and distance travelled, might improve goalie analysis as well, puck speed, deflections, rebound tracking.
Umm no one really cares about possession time. Why do people think this is what everyone is really after? Effective use of possession is what Corsi, xG are used for not raw possession time.
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
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Umm no one really cares about possession time. Why do people think this is what everyone is really after? Effective use of possession is what Corsi, xG are used for not raw possession time.

Evolution. If you think that the only stats that matter are the ones we already use you will be left in the dust.
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
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Umm no one really cares about possession time. Why do people think this is what everyone is really after? Effective use of possession is what Corsi, xG are used for not raw possession time.

What do you mean no-one cares? The NHL is about to spend a lot of money to make the information available in some form. Someone must care quite a bit? The more information available to tell the story the better.

Possession time has hardly been studied at all in the public realm because of how time consuming it is to manually acquire the data. NHL Teams are paying companies to provide them this info right now. Why would they do that if nobody cared about it?

Anyway it's still a couple years away before we'll see it.

NHL pursuing new optical player tracking technology - Article - TSN

The NHL is scheduled to conduct its latest experiment there, this time using optical technology - which does not require infrared tracking chips embedded in player’s jerseys.
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said the goal is to begin to work out the kinks in time to roll out a tracking system for the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs.
“We’re actually working with some technology companies to get it into a position where we’re comfortable that it will work accurately and that it’s scalable for all games in all buildings,” Bettman said. “We think the ’19-20 season.”
The NHL last tested a player tracking system using infrared during the 2016 World Cup of Hockey in Toronto. The data delivered was believed to be extremely accurate - but the league backed off from pursuing that technology.
One issue was scalability and cost.
“It’s expensive,” deputy commissioner Bill Daly said. “Very expensive.”
 

WPGChief

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May 25, 2017
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Possession time has hardly been studied at all in the public realm because of how time consuming it is to manually acquire the data. NHL Teams are paying companies to provide them this info right now. Why would they do that if nobody cared about it?
If you really think NHL teams are paying the equivalent of a minimum contract just so they have more accurate possession time, I have some bad news for you.
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
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If you really think NHL teams are paying the equivalent of a minimum contract just so they have more accurate possession time, I have some bad news for you.

I have no idea what they are paying and I never claimed to know. Not sure where that comes from. I've heard Maurice talk about zone time stats. So they are either doing it in house or paying someone to provide them the information.
 

MrBoJangelz71

Registered User
Jan 14, 2014
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Umm no one really cares about possession time. Why do people think this is what everyone is really after? Effective use of possession is what Corsi, xG are used for not raw possession time.
What are you talking about? I am talking true possession time, with location, area of the ice, actual player tracking, not subjective human documented analysis. We will know who possessing the puck and where on the ice, not who happens to be on the ice at that time.

This technology will make Corsi , Xg and many other current analytics obsolete.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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What are you talking about? I am talking true possession time, with location, area of the ice, actual player tracking, not subjective human documented analysis. We will know who possessing the puck and where on the ice, not who happens to be on the ice at that time.

This technology will make Corsi , Xg and many other current analytics obsolete.

It will make the current stats we use better, not obsolete.

Essentially, you refine xGoals given location and movement of players.

Again, we already know that we currently cover the majority of the pie... the new information will just refine so we cover more of the pie.
 

pucka lucka

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Apr 7, 2010
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What are you talking about? I am talking true possession time, with location, area of the ice, actual player tracking, not subjective human documented analysis. We will know who possessing the puck and where on the ice, not who happens to be on the ice at that time.

This technology will make Corsi , Xg and many other current analytics obsolete.

This is complete and utter nonsense. Tracking possession is simply not the point of Corsi or xG at all. You might want to learn something before going off.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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It will make the current stats we use better, not obsolete.

Essentially, you refine xGoals given location and movement of players.

Again, we already know that we currently cover the majority of the pie... the new information will just refine so we cover more of the pie.
By "cover the majority of the pie", are you basing that on model variance estimates such as r-squared? If so, I'd suggest that lots of causal and predictive model methodologists have moved beyond that approach to favour nonlinear models and mathematical modeling (individual-based and compartmental). I think it's a bit simplistic at this point to assume that enough is known to be confident about how much of the causal pie is left to be uncovered.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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If the league was decided by a pure coin flip, there would still be some teams that win more than others.

Understanding that this portion of the game would not be predictive has nothing to do with correlation studies.
 

Dayofthedogs

Bettman's hammer
Feb 20, 2016
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Except we've had possession, and some companies now track possession, and possession WAS less meaningful.

Key word is was though isn't it?

I don't think it would be very prudent to never double check information that was previously thought to be irrelevant or replaceable.

The belief that Corsi was as good or better than zone time may not forever be true.
 
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