2017-18 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by garret9, Aug 2, 2014.

  1. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Thought it was time to move on to the next year.

    For those new to the board, I run a stats thread like this each year in order to not spam those who do not want to see certain things.

    Here you will find things like:
    * random numbers I find interesting that are not being written in an article
    * me brainstorming ideas for articles
    * links to statistical articles I (or others) have found around the in
    * questions you have of things you want me to research, and my answers
    * any stats work YOU have done

    WINNIPEG JETS DEPTHCHART

    * Click the links to see an analytical focused write up on each player
    * These are not lines so do not get stuck up on the order at any position... they are not even in order of my opinion of good to bad

    INTRODUCTION TO SHOT METRICS
    * Underlying metrics are stupid.... stupid easy
    * Limits of Corsi: What can and can't it do
    * Importance and misconceptions of hockey analytics
    * Some of the most important pieces in hockey analytics

    STATISTICAL BASED WEBSITES:

    Arctic Ice Hockey - Winnipeg Jets blog that commonly dips into shot metrics (by yours truly) but not limited to
    Extra Skater - the most in-depth
    Behind The Net - the original website for gaining shot metrics on players and teams
    Nice Time on Ice - another raw data site (but different) like Behind the Net
    Hockey Analysis - third raw data site I (and others) commonly use, has advantages and disadvantages compared to BTN
    Some Kind of Ninja - player usage charts and super shot tracker
    Hockey Abstract - place to get GVT, player usage charts and quality starts (amongst other things), by Rob Volman of HP and ESPN
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2014
  2. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    Cool stuff garret! One teeny, OCD request: can you make the tables a bit narrower?
     
  3. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Done.
     
  4. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    Cool. Here's an idea: you wrote an article (or was it truck - same-same :sarcasm:) about how LLF is a very good 1st line, and showed how they placed in the league based on RelCorsi and GF% - would be interesting (or perhaps depressing ;)) to see how the other lines that we think will get put together would stack up, at least in the Central.

    If I wasn't so lazy, I'd use the template from the published article to do it myself. :dunce:
     
  5. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    I did do an series on the lines that Maurice was hinting at:

    Ladd-Little-Frolik
    Byfuglien-Schiefele-Wheeler
    Kane-Perreault-O`Dell

    But ya... Some ideas like what you are saying may be done this summer.
     
  6. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Tyler Dellow (mc79hockey) => NHL team per Bob Mckenzie
    Sunny Mehta (Battle of Alberta) => NJD
    Eric Tulsky (Outnumbered and NHL Numbers) => NHL team per himself
    Kyle Dubas (not blogger but was always interacting with us) => Toronto Maple Leafs


    Summer of bloggers.
     
  7. truck

    truck Registered User

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    Bobby Mac says Dellow to the Oilers.
     
  8. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

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    @TSNBobMcKenzie: BTW, in shameless plug department, my new book @HkyConfidential, out Oct. 14, has a chapter devoted to #fancystats. Some fascinating stuff.
     
  9. Joe Hallenback

    Joe Hallenback Registered User

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    Another reason to hate the Oilers
     
  10. truck

    truck Registered User

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    I don't want to hate the Oilers. I want to laugh at them or feel pitty.

    I can't hate them if they are below the Jets in the standings.
     
  11. ps241

    ps241 Registered User Sponsor

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    Waiting for the Jets announcement ;)
     
  12. jamiebez

    jamiebez Registered User

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    Wasn't sure where to put this.... this thread seems to be a good a spot as any. Another thought-provoking read by Elliotte Friedman

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2014/08/in-search-of-vic-ferrari.html

     
  13. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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  14. Grind

    Grind Stomacheache AllStar

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  15. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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  16. ps241

    ps241 Registered User Sponsor

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    Interesting interview. Funny how the little he did give up was exactly what got me into the analytics. In short when your eyes match up with what the stats say then it's perfect. When your eyes and gut are telling you one thing and the stats say something else about a player either positively or negatively "it starts a conversation" . That is the essence of self improvement in life IMO. I learned tw0 key things. Firstly, I had sold Eakins short which is never a smart thing. secondly, adding Dellow was Eakins idea so maybe there is hope for the Jets to add a similar resource.

    Another comment from the interview that resonated for me was when Dallas said Roger Neilson use to get mocked for using video before the other teams used it and everyone felt it was a passing phase and he feels that is the same path analytics is on now.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2014
  17. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    For those wondering, I'll be on CJOB in 30 mins...

    edit: ugh... I had a brainfart in the middle... that was awkward.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2014
  18. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    Missed it first time around, but it's available as on-demand audio here:

    http://www.cjob.com/audio-on-demand/

    Select 10AM, and go to 36m in.
     
  19. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Ugly haha
     
  20. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

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    I think it was more than fine - you started out really well, and had them hooked initially, with the simple explanation.

    If I can offer a word of advice: stay away from the more esoteric bits of the 'advanced stats'. When you explained Corsi / Fenwick initially as (paraphrasing here):

    Corsi is basically shots for vs. shots against. Good teams and players are over 50%. Can be considered a proxy for possession, and trends show that a strong Corsi team will win more often than a poor Corsi team.

    ... you had them hooked. They responded with something that showed they got the basic concept. I think it started to unravel a bit when you undermined their basic understanding by going deeper into some of the peculiarities of the stats themselves.

    Perhaps present one of your 'advanced stats for dummies' links for further reading, and stick to helping them understand the very basics of Corsi/Fenwick and how it's useful. Possibly compare it to +/-, as that's one that all media seems to latch on to as being 'important', when really it's not at all reliable.

    I enjoyed the interview - just thought I'd mention a few things I'd try. When I teach courses, I try to get people 'hooked' and get them involved in the conversation - it tends to stick with them better when I'm able to reel them in, and make them think about it. If I offer up too much, it's counter productive, as they can't retain and absorb it.
     
  21. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Thanks and noted!
     
  22. ps241

    ps241 Registered User Sponsor

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  23. EastRiver

    EastRiver Registered User

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    Garret, can you include your Introduction to Advanced Statistic article your wrote this summer in the OP?

    EDIT: Nevermind.
     
  24. Mud Turtle

    Mud Turtle Registered User

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  25. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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