2017-18 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

[Aavco Cup]

It's no secret that I have talked to *members* of the Jets organizations. I've had solid conversations with some of these, and have heard good things about other members of the organization (supposedly Larry Simmons is really smart and actively looking to improve things in many areas).
I know that Maurice is interested in things from a team level perspective.

Now, the real question is about HOW one uses statistics and, most importantly, how do they attack situations where their own notions are counter to what statistics may indicate.

Another question is how do they deal with things that may be more explanative than predictive.

A coach would probably like analytics to help figure out "why" a players performance is the way it is. Certainly talent is a big part of the story but it's also a game with a lot of "habits" Do some players have "habits " that can be easily changed that can help them show improvements on the ice. Can he get more out of the current talent pool simply by designing a drill for a particular player?

 

[garret9]

My guess for all of those questions is "poorly," based partly on who they sign and how they arrange the roster, and partly on me thinking they're pretty close to neanderthal.

I have no idea really... There's a lot of confounding variables in evaluating non-players.
Judging coaching/GM/scout/etc. impact with eliminating the impact of the others is more guesswork than science, IMO.

A coach would probably like analytics to help figure out "why" a players performance is the way it is. Certainly talent is a big part of the story but it's also a game with a lot of "habits" Do some players have "habits " that can be easily changed that can help them show improvements on the ice. Can he get more out of the current talent pool simply by designing a drill for a particular player?

That does seem to be the tendency I've seen from most coaches.
They either want one or both of two things:

1. specific numbers tracked for things they view as important (ex: giveaways, shift length, etc.)
2. tendencies for developmental coaching

 

[Aavco Cup]

Almost on queue the Athletic releases an article on how the Blue Jackets use analytics. It's been rumoured the Jets also use Sportslogiq BTW

For those who have access it's a good read

Numbers Game: How the Blue Jackets make analytics part of...

“Does a hockey team use analytics?”
It’s a question that gets bandied about quite a bit these days. But the reality is the answer is rarely a simple “yes” or “no.” Building a successful hockey organization that succeeds not only game-to-game, but also season-to-season, requires minds evaluating players and performance at more than a few levels, with different types of data against a few different timelines.
What a general manager might look at is not necessarily what a player looks at or what a coach works on in practice. Nor should it be.

 

[Rheged]

Derp.. Don't know how to embed a tweet any more

Just Dellow saying he'd look to improve xG by looking at pre-shot player and pass locations.

That was my guess for what the Jets are doing for in-house xG.

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[Rheged]

Yeah that one!

 

[Aavco Cup]

Derp.. Don't know how to embed a tweet any more

Just copy and paste the tweet link (the whole thing) the site embeds it automatically. No need to add tweet tags

 

[garret9]

I wonder if anyone on this board has ever mentioned they (the person, not Jets) already do that..........

 

[Whileee]

The way the Jets have been playing recently, I wonder if Maurice is over-thinking things. Perhaps they are focusing excessively on the quality of shots, and it's messed them up. They just seem so conservative defensively, and they are not nearly aggressive enough in terms of getting pucks and players to the net, seeming to always look for a higher quality chance. Maybe they need to get back to their 2014/15 form, which was high pressure all over the ice.

 

[JetsFan815]

During the last 5 games, the Jets managed to be above 50% Corsi just once. This 5 game stretch includes a game against Vegas and 2 games against bottom-feeders Coyotes. Even tonight when they had score effects in their favor the entire game they failed to out-corsi the Flyers. I am happy with the points and there have been some good efforts by the Jets but at some point they have to start winning the shot battle if they wish to be a serious force in the playoffs. How the coaching staff is asking them to play is the biggest thing holding this team back from being a true contender in my view. I think some line juggling is in order

 

[JetsFan815]

On the positive side these last 5 games were the Jets best 5-game block PK wise in terms of shot attempts conceded. They ended this 5 game block with FA/60 of 80.12, much better than their last best block of 5. They've been a 18-23 type PK in these last 5 games as opposed to dead last and historically bad PK in most of their other 5 game blocks. Granted that they faced Vegas and the Yotes in this block but I will take this as a positive. Whether this was a flash in the pan or a sign of the PK turning things around remains to be seen.

 

[garret9]

Thoughts:
1) Expected PDO given shot quality (red) more stable (duh)
2) Actual PDO (blue) is not as stable (duh)
3) The difference (purple) mostly driven by (red) (duh)
4) (Only surprise) Red/Purple oddly pattern like...

The pattern disappears though when you separate the purple into shooting and save percentage (relative to expectations) components:

This looks like a negative correlation, but there isn't much (-0.14 r, 0.02 rsq)

 

[Aavco Cup]

Is this 5 on 5? Or all situations?

 

[garret9]

Is this 5 on 5? Or all situations?

5v5 sorry

 

[Whileee]

During the last 5 games, the Jets managed to be above 50% Corsi just once. This 5 game stretch includes a game against Vegas and 2 games against bottom-feeders Coyotes. Even tonight when they had score effects in their favor the entire game they failed to out-corsi the Flyers. I am happy with the points and there have been some good efforts by the Jets but at some point they have to start winning the shot battle if they wish to be a serious force in the playoffs. How the coaching staff is asking them to play is the biggest thing holding this team back from being a true contender in my view. I think some line juggling is in order

I'm pretty sure that most teams and and analysts have moved past Corsi as the dominant way of looking at performance.

 

[garret9]

I'm pretty sure that most teams and and analysts have moved past Corsi as the dominant way of looking at performance.

Every one of them would still say it's still important and a red flag that that happened.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Every one of them would still say it's still important and a red flag that that happened.

You recognize a problem, then you try and solve that problem.

 

[JetsFan815]

I'm pretty sure that most teams and and analysts have moved past Corsi as the dominant way of looking at performance.

Please point out one metric to me which makes the Jets look good. I don't care what teams have moved on to, fact remains that Corsi is one of the best publicly available metrics we have and despite its flaws it is good enough.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Please point out one metric to me which makes the Jets look good. I don't care what teams have moved on to, fact remains that Corsi is one of the best publicly available metrics we have and despite its flaws it is good enough.

11-4-3 (the one that matters most of all)

+10GD (contributes a lot to above)

 

[Whileee]

Please point out one metric to me which makes the Jets look good. I don't care what teams have moved on to, fact remains that Corsi is one of the best publicly available metrics we have and despite its flaws it is good enough.

Good enough for what?

 

[Skidooboy]

Wins vs losses and goal differential seem to be metrics which make the Jets look good.

 

[garret9]

Wins vs losses and goal differential seem to be metrics which make the Jets look good.

Yes, but there is still cause for concern because both those things are less predictive of wins vs losses and goal differential for remainder of season than Corsi, something the Jets struggle in, is.

That said, a segment from my rant on Twitter today:

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Wins vs losses and goal differential seem to be metrics which make the Jets look good.

They're descriptive, not predictive. They're nice, granted, and I'm enjoying the run, but I do appreciate the analysis in here as to what might be going on, and the likelihood of it continuing.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yes, but there is still cause for concern because both those things are less predictive of wins vs losses and goal differential for remainder of season than Corsi, something the Jets struggle in, is.

That said, a segment from my rant on Twitter today:

Was anyone saying there is no cause for concern? Someone asked to post one metric that makes the Jets look good. The ones posted do just that.

 

[winnipegger]

Sorry for the entry-level question here, when people say Corsi is more predictive than wins/GD, how predictive are we talkin? It strikes me that it can't be all that predictive because gamblers would be having a field day.

If a team has elite Corsi stats (i.e. they are number 1 in the league) what is the probability that they are in the top 16 teams at the end of the season? Is that question answerable?