Speculation: 2017-18 Sharks roster discussion III - Offseason Edition

[Sharksrule04]

This is such a silly statement.

Hertl has played 79, 80, and 82 games in his five year career. That’s not even remotely comparable to Kane. JVR blows and I’d be furious if we signed him.

You really didn’t even try to argue my point. Just jokes about semantics and then tried to take an (ineffective) shot at Hertl. It’s seriously concerning that Kane has quite literally been a 40 point player his whole entire career outside the two seasons he was playing for a new contract.

Per 82 games he averages 26.5 goals and 50.57 pts. I understand injuries are part of the game, but your stats are deceiving without providing context. He's played mostly on bad teams in his career. I don't expect him to be a 70-80 point player but I don't think its unreasonable to say Kane could put up 30-35 goals and 55-60 points regularly with the Sharks. To me that is worth 6.5-7M per year. Above 7M and I'm willing to pass on him.

Side note, my opinion is we have very little chance of getting Tavares, but if we actually do have a shot at getting Tavares that takes significant priority over signing Kane and pretty much any other move this off-season.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I love you always attempt to denigrate people here by calling them silly or talk down to them as though you're some guru with immense inside knowledge of the sport. As someone else posted, Kane is top 20 in even strength goals over the last few years even with injuries. He's a first line winger whether you like it or not. If you don't understand the comment about his style of play being desirable then I can't help you. Power forwards get hurt, it's a reality. Sharks fans are spoiled because guys like Marleau and Jumbo has mostly been injury free but take a look at other teams and you see that many power players have a more extensive injury history than those 2. Guys like Kane don't hit UFA at this age very often so they can't sit around waiting for the perfect player.

You need to look up JVRs stats before you make such a wildly uninformed statement. 4 of the last 5 seasons he's been pretty much a 30 goal 50-60 point guy. He's not far off from Coutures career stat line and they are similar age. But Couture has historically had better teammates and been on the #1 PP with Burns and Jumbo. He'd be a very good addition to the sharks top 6 if everything else falls thru. Sharks could do a lot worse.

Doc, it's pretty much the HF boards way. Make extreme statements and then belittle the people who call you out on it.

Do I want JVR? Not at the rate he'll likely get. Calling him awful or terrible or whatever word was used is so ridiculous. He has averaged a 30 goal rate per 82 games over the last 5 seasons. Only 1 Sharks player has done that and he's on the decline (28, 22 goals past 2 seasons).

What I find most contradictory about most fans here is that they always mock the Sharks for getting shots and outplaying teams but not winning. They then praise the players who are such great possession players but don't finish their chances and crap on the players who actually score goals. Guys like Kane and JVR are finishers. They score goals, however they're not welcome in SJ.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That's because those finishers don't do anything else well. You should want finishers that at least do something else well whether it's defensive play or helping setup other players or quality possession players. Heatley was the kind of finisher that is good to acquire because while Heatley definitely finishes, he was an underrated playmaker. Kane and JVR don't do that.

 

[Maladroit]

I thought that the pick was lottery protected?

Just looked it up and you are correct, it is lottery protected. However I believe that means it would slide to 2020 where there's probably an even greater likelihood of the Sharks missing the playoffs and the pick ending up in the lottery.

What I find most contradictory about most fans here is that they always mock the Sharks for getting shots and outplaying teams but not winning. They then praise the players who are such great possession players but don't finish their chances and crap on the players who actually score goals. Guys like Kane and JVR are finishers. They score goals, however they're not welcome in SJ.

Kane has a career 9% SH% I wouldn't call him a finisher. He's a volume shooter.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Hertl's possession game alone is worth more than anything Kane does.

Disagree. Possession without finish is useless. You can dominate possession all game but if you can't put it in the net you do not win, plain and simple. It sounds like everyone loves to over-complicate things these days with advanced stats. Possession is key in the modern NHL but it needs to be paired with finishers. The Sharks are not heavy on those at the moment and really haven't been for a while. Except for Pavs and Couture we haven't had a reliable goal scorer such as Kane for a little while. Pavs is declining while Couture is still perfectly fine. Meier is developing and could be a 30 goal scorer as early as next year. Point is the Sharks are not loaded with goal scorers and having too many goal scorers has never been a problem teams complain about.

Also for the last few seasons what have the Sharks severely lacked at times?
- 5v5 scoring? Check
- Physical presence? Check
- Goal scoring? Check

Kane satisfies all 3 of those and I honestly don't care if he sucks on the PP. When Jumbo is healthy our PP is tops in the league. If we get Tavares he would also fit on the PP. I'll take 5v5 scoring over a PP specialist any day, especially with the current Sharks team.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Disagree. Possession without finish is useless. You can dominate possession all game but if you can't put it in the net you do not win, plain and simple. It sounds like everyone loves to over-complicate things these days with advanced stats. Possession is key in the modern NHL but it needs to be paired with finishers. The Sharks are not heavy on those at the moment and really haven't been for a while. Except for Pavs and Couture we haven't had a reliable goal scorer such as Kane for a little while. Pavs is declining while Couture is still perfectly fine. Meier is developing and could be a 30 goal scorer as early as next year. Point is the Sharks are not loaded with goal scorers and having too many goal scorers has never been a problem teams complain about.

Also for the last few seasons what have the Sharks severely lacked at times?
- 5v5 scoring? Check
- Physical presence? Check
- Goal scoring? Check

Kane satisfies all 3 of those and I honestly don't care if he sucks on the PP. When Jumbo is healthy our PP is tops in the league. If we get Tavares he would also fit on the PP. I'll take 5v5 scoring over a PP specialist any day, especially with the current Sharks team.

Possession without finish is useless? Like hell it is. Possession without finish at the very least is playing defense without having to play defense and a significantly less of a chance to take a penalty against.

At the end of the day, Kane is a value judgment like anyone else. I don't value him at 6.5-7 mil for probably 5-6 years for goal scoring and a physical play that will keep him out of the lineup frequently and probably limit his effectiveness for the playoffs. I don't care if it's an element the team is missing. There are other ways to achieve that and someone like Timo Meier could develop into what they need on that front.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Possession without finish is useless? Like hell it is. Possession without finish at the very least is playing defense without having to play defense and a significantly less of a chance to take a penalty against.

At the end of the day, Kane is a value judgment like anyone else. I don't value him at 6.5-7 mil for probably 5-6 years for goal scoring and a physical play that will keep him out of the lineup frequently and probably limit his effectiveness for the playoffs. I don't care if it's an element the team is missing. There are other ways to achieve that and someone like Timo Meier could develop into what they need on that front.

That is reasonable. I have no problem with not wanting to pay him 7M, because that is basically where I cut him off too, in fact I would be very nervous paying him above 6.5M due to his injury history and the previously mentioned faults in his game. I do think what he contributes is well worth 6-6.5M and I'm not going to be devastated over an extra .5M. I mostly have an issue with the suggestion that he's a 3rd liner or that he isn't a good player.

At this point I think I've debated my view enough on Kane. I think a lot of people will be disappointed because I do not see him signing anywhere for less than 6.5-7M and I do think Wilson goes hard to bring him back. Wilson has done a good job of not drastically over paying his top players so I have faith that he won't do anything stupid like giving Kane 7.5-8M, but I do think DW will give him that 6.5-7M which I will be ok with so long as it doesn't prevent us from getting Tavares.

My main question for Sharks fans is, acknowledging that getting Tavares is very unlikely, if we let Kane go, how is our team any better next season? Even with Meier and Hertl's development we have other guys who are declining. How do the Sharks get better for next season? Does everyone think our current lineup, minus Kane but plus Jumbo is enough to make us better? That's essentially the team we had prior to mid January so I can't see that being the case.

Is signing Green that move? Nobody wants JVR so I know that can't be the move people think will push us into the contender group. What is the realistic improvement for this franchise coming into next fall?

 

[FunkyPhin]

I think this is a bit of an over reaction. The D isn't nearly as bad off as it appeared. Burns was clearly hurt and the offense without someone like Heed in there suffered. They should be able to sign someone if needed or pull someone up from the minors for D help. They should trade braun & Martin simply for salary cap room but it could be part of a deal to bring in a forward or D if necessary. I'm optimistic that Heed gets a chance next season. Also I still think DW is going to be in on EK65.

Our defence outside of burns is anemic offensively. We barely have two defenceman that can skate the puck out of the zone, and because of that we continuously ice pucks from bad break out passes. Vlasic isn't good enough to cover for Braun, who's a great player he's just not a #2. We get someone like hanifin, Hamilton, we'll see our defence improve considerably.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The team before Kane with Jumbo in the lineup was good enough for a playoff spot. If they properly address their blue line whether it's making a huge splash or finding someone to improve upon DeMelo, they can get better next season. Jumbo should legitimately be healthy come opening night unlike last season and maybe they get off to a better start than what they were prior to Thanksgiving even without addressing their blue line. However, expectations are that DW is going to be a player this off-season so I'm not expecting them to simply lose Kane, keep Jumbo, and that's it. DW has given every indication that he's going to make a pretty big move. Seeing as how you can justify a big move up front or on the blue line at this point, it's tough to say what it'll make the team look like.

If it's not Tavares and it's not Kane/JVR then they need to look at guys like David Perron and James Neal if for no other reason but to weaken Vegas and John Carlson/Mike Green.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

That is reasonable. I have no problem with not wanting to pay him 7M, because that is basically where I cut him off too, in fact I would be very nervous paying him above 6.5M due to his injury history and the previously mentioned faults in his game. I do think what he contributes is well worth 6-6.5M and I'm not going to be devastated over an extra .5M. I mostly have an issue with the suggestion that he's a 3rd liner or that he isn't a good player.

At this point I think I've debated my view enough on Kane. I think a lot of people will be disappointed because I do not see him signing anywhere for less than 6.5-7M and I do think Wilson goes hard to bring him back. Wilson has done a good job of not drastically over paying his top players so I have faith that he won't do anything stupid like giving Kane 7.5-8M, but I do think DW will give him that 6.5-7M which I will be ok with so long as it doesn't prevent us from getting Tavares.

My main question for Sharks fans is, acknowledging that getting Tavares is very unlikely, if we let Kane go, how is our team any better next season? Even with Meier and Hertl's development we have other guys who are declining. How do the Sharks get better for next season? Does everyone think our current lineup, minus Kane but plus Jumbo is enough to make us better? That's essentially the team we had prior to mid January so I can't see that being the case.

Is signing Green that move? Nobody wants JVR so I know that can't be the move people think will push us into the contender group. What is the realistic improvement for this franchise coming into next fall?

Yep, getting Tavares is very unlikely. I would think that DW could be looking at it slightly differently though. I expect the combined cap hit for Tavares and Kane to be anywhere between 18-20M. I am thinking DW already has a rough idea on what he will be ok paying those players. Based on that, I would focus on re-signing Kane and leave enough $ to sign Tavares. For a player like Tavares DW will go ahead and create more cap if he needs to anyway.

I think Kane re-signing makes us good immediately. I am expecting him to get around 6.5M - 7 M if he re-signs though it is definitely possible he gets close to 8M from some other team. I would actually be ok with having Jumbo back based on two things:

- Him agreeing to an adjusted role. Potentially #3C.
- Getting under 4M for 1 year.

If not, I would be content letting him walk. If we miraculously end up landing both Tavares and Kane, the problem may fix itself as we probably may not be able to even afford him. Will leave little to no room for Jumbo with the new contract that Hertl and potentially Tierney gets. However, if we can trade Tierney (for a potential top-4 D prospect or high pick) and Jumbo agrees to play the #3C role, it could make us a real contender for this year and help re-stock for the future as well.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Disagree. Possession without finish is useless. You can dominate possession all game but if you can't put it in the net you do not win, plain and simple. It sounds like everyone loves to over-complicate things these days with advanced stats. Possession is key in the modern NHL but it needs to be paired with finishers. The Sharks are not heavy on those at the moment and really haven't been for a while. Except for Pavs and Couture we haven't had a reliable goal scorer such as Kane for a little while. Pavs is declining while Couture is still perfectly fine. Meier is developing and could be a 30 goal scorer as early as next year. Point is the Sharks are not loaded with goal scorers and having too many goal scorers has never been a problem teams complain about.

Also for the last few seasons what have the Sharks severely lacked at times?
- 5v5 scoring? Check
- Physical presence? Check
- Goal scoring? Check

Kane satisfies all 3 of those and I honestly don't care if he sucks on the PP. When Jumbo is healthy our PP is tops in the league. If we get Tavares he would also fit on the PP. I'll take 5v5 scoring over a PP specialist any day, especially with the current Sharks team.

It’s funny because Meier and Hertl both bring a far more effective physical presence than Kane and don’t take the stupid penalties that Kane does. I’ve seen Meier show the ability to take over games physically with big hits and I haven’t really seen that from Kane.

Meier is also much more likely to consistently bring that physical presence over the course of 82 games because unlike Kane, he isn’t constantly injured, and unlike Kane, he won’t let himself become a liability with the rough stuff. Part of the reason Meier probably isn’t constantly injured is because he is naturally stronger but also takes his off-season training more seriously; we’ve seen Meier post photos on Instagram of himself working out, while there was actually a rift in Buffalo because Evander Kane doesn’t work out at all in the off-season, and that management thought that might be a poor example to set on the young players.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I think Kane is a fine player on the ice and would be a welcome long term addition for the right price (under $7M). For whatever his warts are, he is a fantastic even strength scorer and I think fits well in the top 6. Of course if the option is Kane OR Tavares I want Tavares - but I’d love to see both on the team.

This notion that having Kane somehow negatively affects Meier seems silly to me. The Sharks have enough quality centers to ensure that Meier will get effective linemates, and with Kane on the team Meier may see more favorable matchups. Shaving a 1-2 minutes of his ice time isn’t going to stifle his development. Personally, given Meier’s dedication to his fitness, and his attention to detail in regards to improving his game, I suspect Meier is going to continue to make strides regardless of which line and linemates he is placed on/with.

Pushing young players like Tierney, LaBanc, and Meier down the lineup (within reason) is IMO a really good thing.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think Kane is a fine player on the ice and would be a welcome long term addition for the right price (under $7M). For whatever his warts are, he is a fantastic even strength scorer and I think fits well in the top 6. Of course if the option is Kane OR Tavares I want Tavares - but I’d love to see both on the team.

This notion that having Kane somehow negatively affects Meier seems silly to me. The Sharks have enough quality centers to ensure that Meier will get effective linemates, and with Kane on the team Meier may see more favorable matchups. Shaving a 1-2 minutes of his ice time isn’t going to stifle his development. Personally, given Meier’s dedication to his fitness, and his attention to detail in regards to improving his game, I suspect Meier is going to continue to make strides regardless of which line and linemates he is placed on/with.

Pushing young players like Tierney, LaBanc, and Meier down the lineup (within reason) is IMO a really good thing.

Where are these guys? I’m guessing you’re talking about guys in the AHL that are coming up next year? Because in the playoffs, Tierney was not a quality center. Meier looked very good in the one game that he did play with a quality center (Pavelski) and Kane immediately was handed back that spot, despite the fact that Kane was suspended for a stupid dirty play, and had not looked as good at any point in the playoffs as Meier did in one game on that line.

Meier can continue to make strides in his ability through his dedication to fitness but he isn’t going to produce at anywhere near his maximum output if he plays with Chris Tierney. He was making serious strides in his game and proving himself as a top-line winger when playing with Pavelski and Donskoi, and that stagnated when he was put with Tierney and LaBanc.

And we know Meier wasn’t just tired and he didn’t just hit a wall because right after he played 91 NHL games, he immediately went to the WHC to represent his country, and has been one of the best players on the Swiss team.

 

[spintops]

I wouldn't mind Donskoi + Boedker being on the 3rd line vs the top 6 (I'm actually happy with Boedker's play lately, but would be fine moving him as well)
Give me Kane over both of them.

 

[Maladroit]

I still don't understand how Kane is a "finisher." He's a career 9.1% shooter. Sharks fans would complain endlessly about Patrick Marleau's "crest shots" and inability to pick corners but he's a career 13.4% shooter and has in fact only had one season in his entire 20-year NHL career where he's shot at a lower rate than Kane's career average. Kane generates a ton of shot volume but he is by no means a finisher unless we're operating with entirely different definitions of that term. To me, a finisher is a player who scores on an above-average percentage of his shots and Kane is objectively not that.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I wouldn't mind Donskoi + Boedker being on the 3rd line vs the top 6 (I'm actually happy with Boedker's play lately, but would be fine moving him as well)
Give me Kane over both of them.

Kane over Donskoi? Did you watch the playoffs?

 

[spintops]

Kane over Donskoi? Did you watch the playoffs?

I'm not basing my opinion on one series where Kane was obviously hurt to be honest. I love Donkey and he can be amazing at times, but I don't think he is every going to turn into this 50 point player we imaged his rookie year. Think he would be a great 3rd liner on a very deep team, he's not a legit first line winger IMO (and this isn't an insult to him).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Where are these guys? I’m guessing you’re talking about guys in the AHL that are coming up next year? Because in the playoffs, Tierney was not a quality center. Meier looked very good in the one game that he did play with a quality center (Pavelski) and Kane immediately was handed back that spot, despite the fact that Kane was suspended for a stupid dirty play, and had not looked as good at any point in the playoffs as Meier did in one game on that line.

Meier can continue to make strides in his ability through his dedication to fitness but he isn’t going to produce at anywhere near his maximum output if he plays with Chris Tierney. He was making serious strides in his game and proving himself as a top-line winger when playing with Pavelski and Donskoi, and that stagnated when he was put with Tierney and LaBanc.

And we know Meier wasn’t just tired and he didn’t just hit a wall because right after he played 91 NHL games, he immediately went to the WHC to represent his country, and has been one of the best players on the Swiss team.

We can criticize Tierney's playoff performance and I'll be right there to agree with you on it but to say he's not a quality center when the idea is to help Meier get better potentially on a 3rd line is entirely incorrect. Tierney was a 40 point center during the season so at best you can make the claim that Meier wouldn't markedly improve in the playoffs because of Tierney but during the season he is a quality center for Meier to play with if that's the way it goes. Of course Meier can still make strides playing with Tierney during next season.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm not basing my opinion on one series where Kane was obviously hurt to be honest. I love Donkey and he can be amazing at times, but I don't think he is every going to turn into this 50 point player we imaged his rookie year. Think he would be a great 3rd liner on a very deep team, he's not a legit first line winger IMO (and this isn't an insult to him).

Only one of those guys missed time with injury in the playoffs. Both of them are injured all the time but Donskoi proved that he can be injured and still have an effective playoffs.

 

[spintops]

Only one of those guys missed time with injury in the playoffs. Both of them are injured all the time but Donskoi proved that he can be injured and still have an effective playoffs.

Do you think Donskoi was better in the Anaheim series? I don't..

Things Kane gets knocked for not staying healthy and his point totals. Both things you can hold against Donskoi

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

We can criticize Tierney's playoff performance and I'll be right there to agree with you on it but to say he's not a quality center when the idea is to help Meier get better potentially on a 3rd line is entirely incorrect. Tierney was a 40 point center during the season so at best you can make the claim that Meier wouldn't markedly improve in the playoffs because of Tierney but during the season he is a quality center for Meier to play with if that's the way it goes. Of course Meier can still make strides playing with Tierney during next season.

Tierney is a 40 point center who has a fairly weak possession game and regularly gets caved in at even strength. Meier is a top-10 draft pick who scored 21 goals and finished 2nd on our team in 5V5 points at age 21. Meier has a high ceiling.

Meier doesn’t need to get better potentially on a 3rd line. There are probably at least 25 and maybe closer to 30 teams in the NHL who would love to have Meier on their 3rd line and would make space for him if necessary. Meier’s ceiling was never supposed to be “great 3rd line winger”; his ceiling was supposed to be elite 2-way 30-30 1st line winger and you have to put him in that position if you want him to become that. He’s not going to become that player if his only opportunities are with a struggling Tierney on the 3rd line.

It’s also important to note that Tierney didn’t just struggle in the playoffs; he fell off a cliff in the final quarter of the season.

Do you think Donskoi was better in the Anaheim series? I don't..

Things Kane gets knocked for not staying healthy and his point totals. Both things you can hold against Donskoi

Yes I do think Donskoi was better in the Anaheim series. By the eye test, he was carrying that line during the regular season and the playoffs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Tierney is a 40 point center who has a fairly weak possession game and regularly gets caved in at even strength. Meier is a top-10 draft pick who scored 21 goals and finished 2nd on our team in 5V5 points at age 21. Meier has a high ceiling.

Meier doesn’t need to get better potentially on a 3rd line. There are probably at least 25 and maybe closer to 30 teams in the NHL who would love to have Meier on their 3rd line and would make space for him if necessary. Meier’s ceiling was never supposed to be “great 3rd line winger”; his ceiling was supposed to be elite 2-way 30-30 1st line winger and you have to put him in that position if you want him to become that. He’s not going to become that player if his only opportunities are with a struggling Tierney on the 3rd line.

It’s also important to note that Tierney didn’t just struggle in the playoffs; he fell off a cliff in the final quarter of the season.

Meier's ceiling being high is debateable but not all that relevant to this point. Meier will be 22 going into his second full season. He can still learn, develop, and contribute on the 3rd line if that's where they want to play him. Tierney and the 3rd line is not going to stunt his development in any way, shape, or form.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Meier's ceiling being high is debateable but not all that relevant to this point. Meier will be 22 going into his second full season. He can still learn, develop, and contribute on the 3rd line if that's where they want to play him. Tierney and the 3rd line is not going to stunt his development in any way, shape, or form.

I guess that we’ll have to agree to disagree because personally, I think the time Meier played in game 2 against Vegas was more beneficial for his development than the time Meier played in the other 9 games.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I guess that we’ll have to agree to disagree because personally, I think the time Meier played in game 2 against Vegas was more beneficial for his development than the time Meier played in the other 9 games.

How do you justify such a statement?

 

[spintops]

Tierney is a 40 point center who has a fairly weak possession game and regularly gets caved in at even strength. Meier is a top-10 draft pick who scored 21 goals and finished 2nd on our team in 5V5 points at age 21. Meier has a high ceiling.

Meier doesn’t need to get better potentially on a 3rd line. There are probably at least 25 and maybe closer to 30 teams in the NHL who would love to have Meier on their 3rd line and would make space for him if necessary. Meier’s ceiling was never supposed to be “great 3rd line winger”; his ceiling was supposed to be elite 2-way 30-30 1st line winger and you have to put him in that position if you want him to become that. He’s not going to become that player if his only opportunities are with a struggling Tierney on the 3rd line.

It’s also important to note that Tierney didn’t just struggle in the playoffs; he fell off a cliff in the final quarter of the season.



Yes I do think Donskoi was better in the Anaheim series. By the eye test, he was carrying that line during the regular season and the playoffs.

I disagree with this big time