Speculation: 2017-18 Sharks roster discussion III - Offseason Edition

[jMoneyBrah]

Where are these guys? I’m guessing you’re talking about guys in the AHL that are coming up next year? Because in the playoffs, Tierney was not a quality center. Meier looked very good in the one game that he did play with a quality center (Pavelski) and Kane immediately was handed back that spot, despite the fact that Kane was suspended for a stupid dirty play, and had not looked as good at any point in the playoffs as Meier did in one game on that line.

Firstly, I’m not going to take a stance on Meier’s proper deployment based on the results of a few playoff games.

Secondly, If the Sharks can’t construct an effective lineup with a good center to play with Meier from Thornton, Pavelski, Couture, Hertl, Tierney, and potentially Tavares - I think we have bigger problems than Meier’s deployment.

Lastly, I’m not as concerned with maximizing Meier’s output as I am with maximizing the output of the forward group/team as a whole. I’m that vein, I think a Sharks forward group with Kane and Meier on it is easily more productive than one with just Meier. I view individual player deployments as a fluid thing, based on recent production and line chemistry. If you want to get hung up on Meier being on the first/second line, that’s all well and good. Personally, I don’t view “Meier producing as a first liner” as a requisite to winning games - I’m much more interested in how he is able to be effective in any role the team needs him to be for them to win.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

How do you justify such a statement?

Because playing on the 1st line in a 2OT game and being 2nd amongst forwards in TOI is a lot more demanding than playing on a soft minutes 3rd line, and because Meier clearly thrived more in the 1st line, fed to the wolves role than he did in the soft minutes 3rd line role.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Because playing on the 1st line in a 2OT game and being 2nd amongst forwards in TOI is a lot more demanding than playing on a soft minutes 3rd line, and because Meier clearly thrived more in the 1st line, fed to the wolves role than he did in the soft minutes 3rd line role.

Except it's one game in a playoff atmosphere. Gleaming anything from that one game is just a huge overreach.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I disagree with this big time

I should clarify; when I say carrying, I don’t mean that he was dragging them around. I mean that he was the one that was primarily driving play and was the best piece of that line. For the majority of the regular season, when they played together, all 3 of those players played very well.

Firstly, I’m not going to take a stance on Meier’s proper deployment based on the results of a few playoff games.

Secondly, If the Sharks can’t construct an effective lineup with a good center to play with Meier from Thornton, Pavelski, Couture, Hertl, Tierney, and potentially Tavares - I think we have bigger problems than Meier’s deployment.

Lastly, I’m not as concerned with maximizing Meier’s output as I am with maximizing the output of the forward group/team as a whole. I’m that vein, I think a Sharks forward group with Kane and Meier on it is easily more productive than one with just Meier. I view individual player deployments as a fluid thing, based on recent production and line chemistry. If you want to get hung up on Meier being on the first/second line, that’s all well and good. Personally, I don’t view “Meier producing as a first liner” as a requisite to winning games - I’m much more interested in how he is able to be effective in any role the team needs him to be for them to win.

These aren’t just the results of a few playoff games though; I’m also looking at the regular season. Meier was clicking on the first line with Pavelski and Donskoi. That line had strong chemistry, possession stats, and solid production. As soon as Kane showed up, he was immediately given that 1st line spot. Meier didn’t look as good at 3LW but Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi were dominating a bunch of non-playoff teams and producing like crazy, so they understandably stuck together. Then, Kane got injured and got his spot back, but he was clearly not the same, and that line struggled. In the playoffs, when Kane was suspended, Meier came in and played significantly better than Kane on that line. But as soon as Kane came back, he got his spot back on that line. That is where my issue is. If Kane is re-signed, he will continue to get opportunities over Meier based on his ego and contract, rather than his play.

Also, regular season+playoff stats (over 135 TOI for both trios) say Meier-Pavelski-Donskoi was better than Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi. Ditching Kane will help maximize the team output as a whole because we can use the cap space and assets elsewhere.

Except it's one game in a playoff atmosphere. Gleaming anything from that one game is just a huge overreach.

I’m gleaming it from the regular season too. Meier was playing better with Thornton-Pavelski and Pavelski-Donskoi than he did at any point with the 3rd line.

Are we forgetting that HOFer Joe Thornton looked his best this season with Meier?

 

[jMoneyBrah]

...Also, regular season+playoff stats (over 135 TOI for both trios) say Meier-Pavelski-Donskoi was better than Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi...

Fantastic, Meier can play with Pavelski and Donskoi - and Kane can play with Couture and Hertl, or Tavares and Boedker, or Thornton and LaBanc. Until any of those lines stagnate and then they will be tinkered with...

Ditching Kane will help maximize the team output as a whole because we can use the cap space and assets elsewhere...

In leui of seeing any of these potential combinations of cap space and asset usages that provide a net greater effect than Kane, I’m inclined to stick with Kane. I’d be happy to comment on the quality of your ideas in this regard

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I’m gleaming it from the regular season too. Meier was playing better with Thornton-Pavelski and Pavelski-Donskoi than he did at any point with the 3rd line.

Are we forgetting that HOFer Joe Thornton looked his best this season with Meier?

Thornton got better the longer that he played because his knee got healthier as it went along. His look really had nothing to do with who he was playing with. Meier's time in that role is still too small even in the regular season to make any definitive claims to that end. But his play being better, being up for debate as that is, is still too little to take that away from the information. There's no telling if Meier would actually hold up over the long term in that same role. Yeah, he'll probably produce more but that doesn't mean it's what is best for his development. Meier should be working on his defensive game and honestly I wouldn't mind moving Tierney for Meier to anchor his own 3rd line but that's not a big deal to me. Meier's in a spot where just him playing is going to help him develop his game. And I don't think where makes any difference.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Fantastic, Meier can play with Pavelski and Donskoi - and Kane can play with Couture and Hertl, or Tavares and Boedker, or Thornton and LaBanc. Until any of those lines stagnate and then they will be tinkered with...



In leui of seeing any of these potential combinations of cap space and asset usages that provide a net greater effect than Kane, I’m inclined to stick with Kane. I’d be happy to comment on the quality of your ideas in this regard

Kane will cost $6-7M along with our 2019 1st round pick. I would much rather use that cap space and that pick to acquire Tavares and at least one defenseman.

If Tavares isn’t available, I’m pushing hard at Dallas for Tyler Seguin, who only has one year left on his contract and might not be looking to re-sign with a team that missed the playoffs over the past two seasons and has only made it twice in his time there. He’s just one example of a player that I might target if Tavares is off the table. William Karlsson, a pending RFA, is another. Tavares is the first choice for obvious reasons.

For the defense, Jake Gardiner is probably a nice buy low that could help our defense. Dougie Hamilton and Erik Karlsson have both come up in trade talks (although Hamilton’s name was likely just classic baseless speculation from Elliott Friedman) and those guys would both add another dimension to our blue line that could make it elite.

If you’re asking me specifically for a CapFriendly, I’ve made a few, but here’s a fun one:

Tierney+Dillon for Gardiner
LaBanc+2018 1st+2019 1st for Hamilton
$12M for Tavares
$3M for Thornton
$5M for Hertl

 

[JackSkellington]

Supposedly Subban is rumored to be available

 

[Juxtaposer]

I still don't understand how Kane is a "finisher." He's a career 9.1% shooter. Sharks fans would complain endlessly about Patrick Marleau's "crest shots" and inability to pick corners but he's a career 13.4% shooter and has in fact only had one season in his entire 20-year NHL career where he's shot at a lower rate than Kane's career average. Kane generates a ton of shot volume but he is by no means a finisher unless we're operating with entirely different definitions of that term. To me, a finisher is a player who scores on an above-average percentage of his shots and Kane is objectively not that.

Well-said. Calling Kane a “finisher” is hilarious. He’s a volume shooter who chucks everything at the net.

Do you think Donskoi was better in the Anaheim series? I don't..

Things Kane gets knocked for not staying healthy and his point totals. Both things you can hold against Donskoi

Except Donskoi isn’t asking for $7M, is he?

If Kane wants to sign for $5M for two years, then we can talk. If I were Wilson, I’d laugh myself pissing if Donskoi asked for $5M for 5+ years, just like I’d laugh myself pissing if Kane asked for $7M for 5+ years.

Not enough is being made over the fact that we will lose a first round pick if we sign Kane. And “lottery protection” doesn’t mean jack when missing the playoffs would just mean that the pick slides to 2020 unprotected.

 

[Lebanezer]

I don’t think Kane is good enough to warrant being re-signed. The Sharks have more important issues to resolve, wing is simply not one of them.

 

[spintops]

Well-said. Calling Kane a “finisher” is hilarious. He’s a volume shooter who chucks everything at the net.



Except Donskoi isn’t asking for $7M, is he?

If Kane wants to sign for $5M for two years, then we can talk. If I were Wilson, I’d laugh myself pissing if Donskoi asked for $5M for 5+ years, just like I’d laugh myself pissing if Kane asked for $7M for 5+ years.

Not enough is being made over the fact that we will lose a first round pick if we sign Kane. And “lottery protection” doesn’t mean jack when missing the playoffs would just mean that the pick slides to 2020 unprotected.

If you follow the conversation, I was actually replying to Kane being better at hockey then Donskoi, not really counting the money.

Won't even respond to a 5M x 2 year offer.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Well-said. Calling Kane a “finisher” is hilarious. He’s a volume shooter who chucks everything at the net.



Except Donskoi isn’t asking for $7M, is he?

If Kane wants to sign for $5M for two years, then we can talk. If I were Wilson, I’d laugh myself pissing if Donskoi asked for $5M for 5+ years, just like I’d laugh myself pissing if Kane asked for $7M for 5+ years.

Not enough is being made over the fact that we will lose a first round pick if we sign Kane. And “lottery protection” doesn’t mean jack when missing the playoffs would just mean that the pick slides to 2020 unprotected.

While true it's our first rounder, we're already losing our second if we don't sign him. So it's a 30 spot downgrade essentially.
I'm 50/50 on Kane. Like you said, I hope we don't go full stupid and sign him to a 7 X 7 and pretend he's the savior and the Sharks will be fine now. But a reasonable deal, he's better than a lot of our wingers currently, and Pavs is only getting older.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think the Sharks should trade Pavelski, Braun, and Vlasic. Try and sign Enstrom in addition to Tavares.

Enstrom-Burns
Ryan-
Dillon-

Is a pretty good defensive skeleton. Acquire Hamilton and the Sharks are golden.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think the Sharks should trade Pavelski, Braun, and Vlasic. Try and sign Enstrom in addition to Tavares.

Enstrom-Burns
Ryan-
Dillon-

Is a pretty good defensive skeleton. Acquire Hamilton and the Sharks are golden.

I would be ecstatic if we traded Vlasic, but I don’t see it happening.

 

[Pistol Pete]

I think it’s safe to assume that Vlasic and Burns will be on the Sharks as long as Doug Wilson is the GM.

The issue I’m most concerned about this summer is a potential extension for Pavs. I really hope that Doug can refrain from doing anything too stupid.

 

[Gecklund]

Instead of Kane (and if we can’t get Tavares) we should offer sheet Stone and make his contract super front loaded

 

[JackSkellington]

I would be ecstatic if we traded Vlasic, but I don’t see it happening.

Why Vlasic? I have no issues with Pavelski and braun, you need shut down dmen like Vlasic. Unless we’re getting a young stud dman and another stud then I’ll listen but it’s hard to trade him

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Why Vlasic? I have no issues with Pavelski and braun, you need shut down dmen like Vlasic. Unless we’re getting a young stud dman and another stud then I’ll listen but it’s hard to trade him

Vlasic is paid $7M over 8 more years and he has visibly not been the same player for the last 172 games he has played as a Shark.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Instead of Kane (and if we can’t get Tavares) we should offer sheet Stone and make his contract super front loaded

I love this idea.

 

[Gecklund]

I love this idea.

Obviously very far fetched but fun to think about

 

[Juxtaposer]

Obviously very far fetched but fun to think about

We’d probably have to get our 2019 2nd back from Buffalo, but it’s a fun thought. Stone is awesome.

 

[KarlssonsGroin]

Supposedly Subban is rumored to be available

say what you want, but when hes an obvious top 10 dmen (top 5 depending on the season) in the league and hes been traded not once but twice, theres more going on

 

[Gecklund]

We’d probably have to get our 2019 2nd back from Buffalo, but it’s a fun thought. Stone is awesome.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2018-rfa-compensation-list-released-offer-sheets.2491545/

Here’s the compensation list max cap hit we could sign him for without a 2nd is slightly higher than 6

Maybe we could trade Boedker for the 2nd and then run Couture-Hertl-Stone

 

[Pinkfloyd]

say what you want, but when hes an obvious top 10 dmen (top 5 depending on the season) in the league and hes been traded not once but twice, theres more going on

Everyone knows that Subban has an abrasive personality in the room. This isn't new and it only is made to not be a thing if the team is winning. The Sharks may be better equipped to handle Subban due to their own unique and large personalities but if the Sharks are transitioning from Jumbo and Pavs to say Burns, Vlasic, Couture, and eventually Hertl, they may no longer be capable of handling such a guy. So while the guy has very obvious on-ice benefits, his ability to rub people the wrong way for whatever reason may be too much for post-Joe San Jose Sharks.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Well-said. Calling Kane a “finisher” is hilarious. He’s a volume shooter who chucks everything at the net.



Except Donskoi isn’t asking for $7M, is he?

If Kane wants to sign for $5M for two years, then we can talk. If I were Wilson, I’d laugh myself pissing if Donskoi asked for $5M for 5+ years, just like I’d laugh myself pissing if Kane asked for $7M for 5+ years.

Not enough is being made over the fact that we will lose a first round pick if we sign Kane. And “lottery protection” doesn’t mean jack when missing the playoffs would just mean that the pick slides to 2020 unprotected.

You can't score if you don't shoot. Kane does shoot a lot but to deny he has a very good shot is simply wrong. I don't see anyone crapping on Meier's 10% shooting percentage. On the Sharks Kane was shooting 11.3%. This makes me sound sour on Meier which isn't the case, I am probably one of his biggest fans, I just think it's hilarious how the tune has changed on Kane after 1 playoffs in which he was injured and still scored 4 goals in 9 games 2 of which were on the PP where he's awful.

Also I really don't care about that first. How many 25-30 goal scorers have we drafted in the first round since 2000? One (Couture). How many picks have we had in the later half of the first round turn into anything near Kane's abilities? One (Hertl). To expect that pick to turn into anything amazing under DW/Burke is unrealistic and overly optimistic. It's also just a jump from 2nd round to first round. Either way we're losing a good pick its likely the difference of a pick in the 50 range or a pick in the 20 range. I'll take Kane over that difference.

Lastly, regarding Donskoi. He's a lot of fun to watch and he has a ton of talent but I just don't see him developing into the fantasy player that many people envision here. Hope I'm wrong because I was big on him after that Stanley Cup Final season but I don't see him being more than a 15-20 goal 35-40 point player.