Line Combos: 2017-18 Roster Thread II - Massive changes not coming

[Elvs]

I just noticed that Derek Grant has scored 0 goals in the NHL. That's almost impressive.

210 goals outside of the NHL
0 in it.

Wow!

Someone made a comment on facebook that Grant scored twice the past season, but both times it was deemed offside

 

[91Fedorov]

Someone made a comment on facebook that Grant scored twice the past season, but both times it was deemed offside

Well, now you got my hopes up and I'm expecting the flood gates to break!!!

3 goals this year, book it!

 

[DaGeneral]

I don't see there being a reasonable deal for Bozak. Don't get me wrong, I think he'd the perfect acquisition for our situation, but I just don't see them trading him for as long as they're in the playoff race.

As irritating as their fanbase is, I believe there's some truth to JVR being on the trade block. If they're ever going to pull a "Bobby Ryan" and get value for him, this would be the time to do it. The thought of JVR (or his eventual return) returning a top-4 defenseman is just ridiculous though.

Bobby had two more years left on his deal and got us a 1st, top 6 potential and a prospect. Bobby also had outplayed JVR by a mile. JVR will be lucky to fetch a 2nd plus a B prospect, let alone a top 4 dman

 

[Kariya 9]

So as of right now, I think we have an idea of what this team will look like next season.

To start the year:

Ritchie-Getzlaf-Eaves
Jones(9 games)-Rakell-Silfverberg
Kase-Steel(9 games)-Perry
Cogliano-Vermette-Wagner

Fowler-Montour
Larsson-Manson
Megna-Bieksa
Holzer

Team America Goalies

After the gang is healthy:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves
Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg
Ritchie-Vermette-Perry
Kase-Grant-Wagner

Fowler-Manson
Lindholm-Montour
Larsson-Bieksa
Holzer

Team America Goalies.

Honestly, I like the first forward group better.

 

[KelVarnsen]

The first lineup is based on the assumption that Jones and Steel are actual NHL players right now.

What happens if they both come to camp and dont cut it?

Ducks are in trouble at that point.

 

[Duck Off]

So as of right now, I think we have an idea of what this team will look like next season.

To start the year:

Ritchie-Getzlaf-Eaves
Jones(9 games)-Rakell-Silfverberg
Kase-Steel(9 games)-Perry
Cogliano-Vermette-Wagner

Fowler-Montour
Larsson-Manson
Megna-Bieksa
Holzer

Team America Goalies

After the gang is healthy:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves
Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg
Ritchie-Vermette-Perry
Kase-Grant-Wagner

Fowler-Manson
Lindholm-Montour
Larsson-Bieksa
Holzer

Team America Goalies.

Honestly, I like the first forward group better.

Jones and Steel won't get 9 games unless they are good enough to be last cuts at camp. If they aren't showing much, then you're going to see guys like Tropp and Kerdiles in there, which IMO, is just as likely.

Murray absolutely should not be done improving this team. As of now, I'd say we are worse than the team that finished last season. Yes, we could see some improvement from a few players, but I could see some regression from a few as well.

 

[duckpuck]

So as of right now, I think we have an idea of what this team will look like next season.

To start the year:

Ritchie-Getzlaf-Eaves
Jones(9 games)-Rakell-Silfverberg
Kase-Steel(9 games)-Perry
Cogliano-Vermette-Wagner

Fowler-Montour
Larsson-Manson
Megna-Bieksa
Holzer

Team America Goalies

After the gang is healthy:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves
Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg
Ritchie-Vermette-Perry
Kase-Grant-Wagner

Fowler-Manson
Lindholm-Montour
Larsson-Bieksa
Holzer

Team America Goalies.

Honestly, I like the first forward group better.

The first lineup is based on the assumption that Jones and Steel are actual NHL players right now.

What happens if they both come to camp and dont cut it?

Ducks are in trouble at that point.

Jones and Steel won't get 9 games unless they are good enough to be last cuts at camp. If they aren't showing much, then you're going to see guys like Tropp and Kerdiles in there, which IMO, is just as likely.

Murray absolutely should not be done improving this team. As of now, I'd say we are worse than the team that finished last season. Yes, we could see some improvement from a few players, but I could see some regression from a few as well.

Logan Shaw will be in the mix, quite possibly as a 4C.

 

[Theridion]

I think BM has gotten lackluster offers for vats, and us hoping that an offensive rebound year for him could mean the same as just upgrading a winger position.

 

[JabbaJabba]

I guess Vermette or Rakell is going to be the 3C next season. I'm not overly excited about that.

 

[Crosbysux]

I guess Vermette or Rakell is going to be the 3C next season. I'm not overly excited about that.

With rasmussen signing, looks like they are pegging Vermette at 3C to start the season

 

[Pennaduck]

Why would that be like Toronto fans? Henrique is a good player, but doesn't have the value of Vatanen. Zacha would be the main piece coming back and there would likely need to be more.

I'm not trying to stir the pot here, but what exactly do the posters on this forum think he is worth? Vatanen is a 2nd pairing RHD puckmover with a good shot, and can play PP and PK. There is a lot of value there for sure. However, he is also undersized, has never played a full 82 game season and won't this year, has never broken the 40 point mark, and costs nearly 5 million dollars AAV.

Now, I love Finnish players and I am a big fan of Vats and am hoping be becomes a force in this league. I am not at all unhappy with the prospect of him being with us long term. I just don't see a huge market for him due to his position (only a few teams rumored to be looking for a RHD), his salary (a lot of teams would have to swap salary with us to fit him comfortably under their cap which limits who we could get, and his injury history. And for this last point...yes I understand that he is only missing a month or two to start this season and he is signed for 3 years so no team should balk at a deal because he is currently injured. What I mean is that he appears to have durability issues and you have to consider that as having an effect on his trade value at least a bit.

How much higher would people rate Vatanen over, say, Jason Demers who is also rumored to be on the block? Why would a team looking for a Righty puck moving defenseman pay a huge asset or overpayment for Vatanen when they could probably get Demers for a song right now (assuming he'd waive of course)?

Again, not trying to stir things up. I am geniunly interested in what value people on here are expecting to get for Vats assuming he is traded.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I'm not trying to stir the pot here, but what exactly do the posters on this forum think he is worth? Vatanen is a 2nd pairing RHD puckmover with a good shot, and can play PP and PK. There is a lot of value there for sure. However, he is also undersized, has never played a full 82 game season and won't this year, has never broken the 40 point mark, and costs nearly 5 million dollars AAV.

Now, I love Finnish players and I am a big fan of Vats and am hoping be becomes a force in this league. I am not at all unhappy with the prospect of him being with us long term. I just don't see a huge market for him due to his position (only a few teams rumored to be looking for a RHD), his salary (a lot of teams would have to swap salary with us to fit him comfortably under their cap which limits who we could get, and his injury history. And for this last point...yes I understand that he is only missing a month or two to start this season and he is signed for 3 years so no team should balk at a deal because he is currently injured. What I mean is that he appears to have durability issues and you have to consider that as having an effect on his trade value at least a bit.

How much higher would people rate Vatanen over, say, Jason Demers who is also rumored to be on the block? Why would a team looking for a Righty puck moving defenseman pay a huge asset or overpayment for Vatanen when they could probably get Demers for a song right now (assuming he'd waive of course)?

Again, not trying to stir things up. I am geniunly interested in what value people on here are expecting to get for Vats assuming he is traded.

Why would anyone want Demers over Vatanen? He's not significantly cheaper (~300K) and has been generally significantly less productive, especially on the PP. At 29, he's 3 years older and signed an extra year. He's nearing the end of his prime and won't be expected to be much more productive, whereas Vatanen is just entering his prime years and already has 2 years better than Demers' career year of 34 five seasons ago (he hasn't cracked 30 any other year). Teams will pay for scoring potential on a player who can be reasonably expected to improve.

I have no idea what the D market is. I'd expect either a similarly aged legitimate top 6 player with the same potential to improve as Vatanen, or a 1st plus a young player/prospect with the potential to become a legitimate top 6 player (not a cast-off D-lister that certain Canadian fan bases want to give up, a legitimate prospect).

 

[Spazkat]

No, thanks. Vatanen > Henrique. 2nd/3rd > Lovejoy.

Especially with that contract the Devils gave him. Lovejoy at 3M a year is a cap dump period.

 

[Pennaduck]

Why would anyone want Demers over Vatanen? He's not significantly cheaper (~300K) and has been generally significantly less productive, especially on the PP. At 29, he's 3 years older and signed an extra year. He's nearing the end of his prime and won't be expected to be much more productive, whereas Vatanen is just entering his prime years and already has 2 years better than Demers' career year of 34 five seasons ago (he hasn't cracked 30 any other year). Teams will pay for scoring potential on a player who can be reasonably expected to improve.

I have no idea what the D market is. I'd expect either a similarly aged legitimate top 6 player with the same potential to improve as Vatanen, or a 1st plus a young player/prospect with the potential to become a legitimate top 6 player (not a cast-off D-lister that certain Canadian fan bases want to give up, a legitimate prospect).

All your points are valid, but Vancouver was just recently rumored as having a deal for Demers that Demers nixed. There's one team I can think of off the top of my head that was trying to get him. Reason being he would likely be traded for far less than what Vatanen is supposed to bring in return, so a team looking for a RD who can move the puck may prefer to give less and have a player who is not quite as good, as opposed to giving more and having the better player.

The question really implies whether another team sees the difference between what Demers and Vatanen respectively would bring to their club, and views that difference as warranting spending more assets or better assets to acquire Vatanen instead.

For a hypothetical...If Toronto wanted to add a puckmoving RD, why would Toronto want to trade Kadri for Vatanen when they could keep Kadri and probably get Demers for a pick and decent but not blue chip prospect. What move makes Toronto a better overall team on the ice? New Jersey is the same...why would they move a package of Henrique + for Vatanen if they could keep Henrique and add Demers for a much lower price. IS New Jersey with Vatanen but no Henrique better than New Jersey with Henrique and Demers?

That is the point I am trying to make. I am not saying teams wouldn't prefer Vatanen, just that it may make more sense for them to get a lesser player for less cost and keep their current roster intact. For the record, I do think Vatanen is the better player of the two, and age and contract status do play into things. I just wonder whether the difference between what each player would bring to a team is worth the higher cost of acquiring Vatanen instead of Demers. And I wonder if that market is currently affecting Vatanen's value, which is why I was asking what people realistically expect to get for him if a trade was made at this point.

 

[SmokeyDuck]

With the injuries open night I think we see

Eaves-Getzlaf-Kase
Cogliano-Vermette-Silfverberg
Ritchie-Rakell-Perry
Rasmussen-Grant-Wagner
Boll,Kerdiles

*Kesler

Fowler-Manson
Megna-Montour
Larsson-Holzer
Oleksey

Lindholm*Vatanen*Bieksa*

 

[liquiduck]

I'll give it a crack

To open the year:

Ritchie Getzlaf Eaves
Kase - Rakell - Perry
Cogs - Vermette - Silf
Kerdilles/ Wags - Rasmussen/Grant - Shaw/Rasmussen/ Boll

Fowler - Manson
Lindholm - Montour
Larsson/Megna - Bieksa/ Welinski
Holzer

Gibson/Miller

Once everyone is healthy:

Ritchie - Getzlaf - Eaves
Cogs - kesler - Silf
Rakell - Vermette - Perry
Kerdilles/ Wags - Grant/ Rasmussen - Shaw/ Rasumussen/ Boll

Fowler - Mason
Lindholm - Montour/Vats
Bieksa - Montour/ Vats
Holzer

Gibby/Miller

I'm sure Kase will fit in there somewhere at somepoint, but I have no idea where. He's not a player who's effective in a 4th line role. Also, hopefully we can upgrade that 3rd line center position before the playoffs, but overall it's a pretty solid group out there. Other than the 2nd line I wouldn't be surprised if every single one of these lines/ pairings is wrong by Novemeber lol

 

[duckpuck]

All your points are valid, but Vancouver was just recently rumored as having a deal for Demers that Demers nixed. There's one team I can think of off the top of my head that was trying to get him. Reason being he would likely be traded for far less than what Vatanen is supposed to bring in return, so a team looking for a RD who can move the puck may prefer to give less and have a player who is not quite as good, as opposed to giving more and having the better player.

The question really implies whether another team sees the difference between what Demers and Vatanen respectively would bring to their club, and views that difference as warranting spending more assets or better assets to acquire Vatanen instead.

For a hypothetical...If Toronto wanted to add a puckmoving RD, why would Toronto want to trade Kadri for Vatanen when they could keep Kadri and probably get Demers for a pick and decent but not blue chip prospect. What move makes Toronto a better overall team on the ice? New Jersey is the same...why would they move a package of Henrique + for Vatanen if they could keep Henrique and add Demers for a much lower price. IS New Jersey with Vatanen but no Henrique better than New Jersey with Henrique and Demers?

That is the point I am trying to make. I am not saying teams wouldn't prefer Vatanen, just that it may make more sense for them to get a lesser player for less cost and keep their current roster intact. For the record, I do think Vatanen is the better player of the two, and age and contract status do play into things. I just wonder whether the difference between what each player would bring to a team is worth the higher cost of acquiring Vatanen instead of Demers. And I wonder if that market is currently affecting Vatanen's value, which is why I was asking what people realistically expect to get for him if a trade was made at this point.

Look at the market. How many top four defensemen - particularly RHD - have been traded in the past few years and what was the return? Parse it further - how many of those traded defensemen had good contracts (as opposed to pending free agents)?

I think the answer is that: (i) the return for top 4 defensemen has been high, even when on rental type of deals; and (ii) not many top 4 defensemen with good contracts have been traded.

Add to that the fact that the UFA market has been really thin - this year you basically had Shattenkirk and Alzner as the only two legitimate top 4 guys, and they got expensive contracts (more expensive than Vatanens).

For whatever reason, its a seller's market for top 4 defensemen.

 

[Pennaduck]

Look at the market. How many top four defensemen - particularly RHD - have been traded in the past few years and what was the return? Parse it further - how many of those traded defensemen had good contracts (as opposed to pending free agents)?

I think the answer is that: (i) the return for top 4 defensemen has been high, even when on rental type of deals; and (ii) not many top 4 defensemen with good contracts have been traded.

Add to that the fact that the UFA market has been really thin - this year you basically had Shattenkirk and Alzner as the only two legitimate top 4 guys, and they got expensive contracts (more expensive than Vatanens).

For whatever reason, its a seller's market for top 4 defensemen.

Here are all the transactions I could find for the past three years involving top four dmen, prospects projected to be top four dmen, or guys who had flirted with top 4 or had been top 4 but were starting to fade. This list goes back to our Kesler trade. I included a few of the big blockbuster type trades that were for bona fide #1 dmen just to have them on the list for comparison's sake. Feel free to highlight all of the deals you think are young top four of comparable talent to Vatanen on good contracts bringing in a good return. I think the discrepancy I have with what you are saying, and the point I was trying to make a few posts ago, is that you think this is a sellers market, and I think this list is more indicative of there being NO market. Too many teams are stuck with cap issues and every team knows the way you win is by developing your own talent, so teams opt to make cheaper deals for lesser players rather than swing the blockbuster trade of a good young player for a good young player. When that does happen, it tends to be for top line talent or top pairing talent, not middle six F or middle pairing D type guys.

Scandella and Pominville for Foligno and Ennis
Methot for Dylan Ferguson, 2nd Round pick in 2020
Hamonic for 1st and 2nd in 2018, conditional 2nd in 2019/20
Deangelo and 7th overall in 2017 for Stepan and Raanta
Hjalmarsson for Connor Murphy and Laurent Dauphin
Sergachev and 2nd round in 2018 for Drouin
Oduya for Mark McNeill and a 4th in 2018
Brendan Smith for a 2nd and 3rd in 2017
Ron Hainsey for Danny Kristo and 2nd rounder in 2017
Michael Stone for 3rd rounder in 2017 and conditional 5th in 2018
P.K. Subban for Shea Weber
Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson
Deangelo for 2016 2nd round pick
Kulikov and 2nd round pick in 2016 for Mark Pysyk, 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2016
Keith Yandle for 6th round pick in 2016, conditional 4th round pick in 2017
Alex Goligoski for 5th round pick in 2016
Erik Gudbranson and 5th round pick in 2016 for Jared McCann, 2nd, and 4th in '16
John Michael Liles for Anthony Camara, 3rd and 5th in 2017
Kris Russell for Jokipakka, Pollock, 2nd rounder in 2016
Justin Schultz for 3rd round pick in 2016
Jakub Kindl for 6th round pick in 2016
Roman Polak and Nick Spaling for 2nd round in 2017, 2nd in 2018, Raffi Torres
Dion Phaneuf and bunch of minor leaguers for cap dumps and 2nd rounder in 2017
Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones
Kevin Bieksa for 2nd round pick in 2016
Griffin Reinhart for 1st in 2015, 2nd in 2015 (terrible trade)
Dougie Hamilton for 1st in 2015 and two 2nds in 2015
Wisniewski and 3rd rounder in 2015 for Karlsson, Bourque, 2nd in 2015
Simon Despres for Ben Lovejoy
Marek Zidlicky for conditional draft picks in 2016
Zbynek Michalek and conditional 3rd in 2015 for Maxin Letunov
Jeff Petry for 2nd rounder in 2015 and conditional 5th in 2015
Braydon Coburn for Radko Gudas, conditional 1st in 2015, 3rd in 2015
Yandle, Summers, and 4th in 2016 for Duclair, John Moore, 2015 2nd and 2016 1st
Kimmo Timonen for 2nd in 2015, conditional 4th in 2016
Andrej Sekera for Roland McKeown and conditional 1st
Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli for Olli Jokinen, Brendan Leipsic, 1st in 2016
Kane, Bogosian, Kasdorf for Myers, Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, 1st in 2015
Eric Brewer for 3rd rounder in 2015
Brendan Dillon for Jason Demers and 3rd rounder in 2016
Nick Leddy and Kent Simpson for T.J. Brennan, Ville Pokka, Anders Nilsson
Johnny Boychuck for 2nd in 2015, 2nd in 2016, conditional 3rd in 2016
Brad Stuart for 2nd in 2016, 6th in 2017
Josh Gorges for 2nd in 2016
Roman Polak for Carl Gunnarsson and 4th in 2014
Jason Garrison, Jeff Costello, 7th rounder in 2015 for 2nd rounder in 2014
Ryan Kesler and 3rd in 2015 for Bonino, Sbisa, 1st in 2014 and 3rd in 2014


P.S. sorry for the long post

 

[Pennaduck]

Based upon this list above, what type of deal would you expect to see first in the "Sellers Market?" Demers for a 2nd and 3rd, or Vatanen for Kadri/Galchenyuk/etc etc?

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I'll be surprised if Sami is dealt before the next off season if at all. Bob just paid a steep price to keep him. If he turns around and trades Sami now the trade effectively becomes Sami, Theo, & Stoner for X. That X would have to be awfully good to not have just moved Sami before the ED and hung on to Theo.

 

[broman]

I'll be surprised if Sami is dealt before the next off season if at all. Bob just paid a steep price to keep him. If he turns around and trades Sami now the trade effectively becomes Sami, Theo, & Stoner for X. That X would have to be awfully good to not have just moved Sami before the ED and hung on to Theo.

Absolutely no way Sami gets traded now. Can't figure why folks still keep making proposals around that notion. Simply not going to happen.

Could be a whole another story next offseason when Manson and Montour need new contracts. Even with Bieksa's 4M off the books and even if the two get reasonable bridge contracts, something's probably gotta give.

 

[Paul4587]

I'll be surprised if Sami is dealt before the next off season if at all. Bob just paid a steep price to keep him. If he turns around and trades Sami now the trade effectively becomes Sami, Theo, & Stoner for X. That X would have to be awfully good to not have just moved Sami before the ED and hung on to Theo.

Yeah I agree 100%. If Bob was going to move Sami he could have done it before expansion drafts, bought out Bieksa and not have to pay Vegas Theodore in order for them not to pick Manson/Vatanen.

If he is moved Bob is an absolute moron unless he gets a really good return.

 

[AngelDuck]

Vermette at 3C will sink this team. He sucks and is only getting older.

The good news is we will be elite at preventing goals next year

 

[liquiduck]

Based upon this list above, what type of deal would you expect to see first in the "Sellers Market?" Demers for a 2nd and 3rd, or Vatanen for Kadri/Galchenyuk/etc etc?

I don't expect a Kadri of Gally for Vatanen. Quite frankly, I'm pretty skeptical of the whole equivalent forward bit as hockey trades are hard, but I would expect a 1st + a pretty good prospect. Either that or that 1st is borderline top 10. Shattenkirk returned a good hual as a pure rental. Larsson returned Taylor hall. Young top 4 RHD with term that can play 21+ minutes a night in all situations, while reasonably expecting 35 + points has a lot of value .

Demers is a worse player, on a worse contract, and is older. I'd still expect he returns something decent, like a pair of 2nds, or a 2nd plus good prospect.

All that said, I would be pretty surprised if Sammi moved before next year's draft.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Vermette at 3C will sink this team. He sucks and is only getting older.

The good news is we will be elite at preventing goals next year

Yeah the 3c position really worries me bc of keslers injury this team is not winning the west if our top two centers minutes aren't managed better. But RC doesn't seem to buy into it