Speculation: 2016-17 Goaltending Discussion

[WhatTheDuck]

I figured we could use a one stop shop to discuss the goalie dilemma facing this team over the off season.

There's a bit of a misconception that moving Freddie will save more money, and even though he'll be the more expensive of the two, we don't necessarily come out that far ahead financially by moving him. In my opinion, there's a big difference in the type of backup we would need depending on on who you keep.

If you keep Andersen, I think a ~ $1M backup would be fine, but with Gibson I think you still have to go out and get a 1B type guy who's likely going to chew up the majority of that difference in salary between our two current guys.

If the choice comes down to Freddie + a backup for a total of say $5.5M, or Gibby + a 1B for a total of say $5M, to me it's almost a no brainer to take scenario A, which allows us to retain the best goalie at the present moment. Obviously there are ways to acquire a more cost efficient 1B for Gibson, but that wouldn't be easy either.

I still think it's best, if at all possible, to drag this thing out to the bitter end and retain both for the time being.

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[Kariya 9]

It's a tough question. There are 2 scenarios that have played out with quality NHL goaltenders before that could be playing out here again.

Scenario 1: Price and Halak.

The Canadians had a tough decision to make a few years back between these 2 guys. Price was the young up and comer who looked very promising, but Halak had been VERY solid for Montreal. The Canadians selected Price and never looked back. He's been a fantastic goaltender his entire career, whereas Halak has never really been more than solid. Obviously in this scenario, Gibson is Price and Andersen is Halak.

Scenerio 2: Quick and Bernier

Bernie was supposed to be the future of the LA Kings. But Quick changed that REAL quick. He defeated Bernier's hype and is now looked at as a far superior goaltender by the entire NHL. Bernier has not been bad, but he has never reached the elite level that he was projected to. In this scenerio, Quick is Andersen and Bernier could is Gibson. The biggest difference here is that Andersen never won us a cup. Would have made the decision much easier.

Now, I personally lean toward scenario one. Gibson may never quite be as good as Price, and Andersen is easily better than Halak ever was, but I really think Gibson will become an elite goalie one day. He just needs to work on his lateral movement and communicate with his defensemen better.

It's a super tough call though. Either decision could come back to haunt us.

 

[bumperkisser]

i voted to keep freddy. i personally don't see gibby panning out to be this elite price level goaltender mostly due to his lack of lateral mobility and puck tracking which can of course be improved but I just don't have enough faith in it personally.

gibby also has the hype and a cheap contract which should bolster his trade value.

 

[snarktacular]

I figured we could use a one stop shop to discuss the goalie dilemma facing this team over the off season.

There's a bit of a misconception that moving Freddie will save more money, and even though he'll be the more expensive of the two, we don't necessarily come out that far ahead financially by moving him. In my opinion, there's a big difference in the type of backup we would need depending on on who you keep.

If you keep Andersen, I think a ~ $1M backup would be fine, but with Gibson I think you still have to go out and get a 1B type guy who's likely going to chew up the majority of that difference in salary between our two current guys.

If the choice comes down to Freddie + a backup for a total of say $5.5M, or Gibby + a 1B for a total of say $5M, to me it's almost a no brainer to take scenario A, which allows us to retain the best goalie at the present moment. Obviously there are ways to acquire a more cost efficient 1B for Gibson, but that wouldn't be easy either.

I still think it's best, if at all possible, to drag this thing out to the bitter end and retain both for the time being.

Would a 1b really be 3 million?

 

[Theridion]

I can't answer this.

But we have to make a choice. Because we need to make moves to fix up weeknesses.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Would a 1b really be 3 million?

If we're somehow acquiring and putting our faith in another kid then maybe not. But in terms of going out and getting a guy with some starting experience who could be a mentor and perhaps hold down the fort for a few weeks if needed - I can't think of too many options that would cost less than $2-3M.

 

[2faded]

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...eType=2&sort=wins&aggregate=0&teamId=24&pos=G

If you're looking at the stats, for all the flaws you can point out that Gibson has, he's still better than Andersen. If Gibson never improves his flaws, at best Andersen is equal. If Gibson fixes them, he will be far better. Then you take into account salary it's a no brainer.

 

[snarktacular]

If we're somehow acquiring and putting our faith in another kid then maybe not. But in terms of going out and getting a guy with some starting experience who could be a mentor and perhaps hold down the fort for a few weeks if needed - I can't think of too many options that would cost less than $2-3M.

I think you're overestimating what a high level backup costs and underestimating what Andersen/low level backup would cost.

Andersen could probably get 5, and backup like 1 (possibly sub-1). That's 6.

Gibson makes 2.3, and a backup should cost similar. Here is a list of salary comparables, which seems appropriate ability-wise. So that's 4.

2 million is worth something.

 

[pucku33]

I think you're overestimating what a high level backup costs and underestimating what Andersen/low level backup would cost.

Andersen could probably get 5, and backup like 1 (possibly sub-1). That's 6.

Gibson makes 2.3, and a backup should cost similar. Here is a list of salary comparables, which seems appropriate ability-wise. So that's 4.

2 million is worth something.

Half a Bieksa?

 

[snowave]

i voted to keep freddy. i personally don't see gibby panning out to be this elite price level goaltender mostly due to his lack of lateral mobility and puck tracking which can of course be improved but I just don't have enough faith in it personally.

gibby also has the hype and a cheap contract which should bolster his trade value.

I'm kinda on board with this. Also, I think Freddy has proved to be the better goalie at this time. Gibson is very good, but he has always been the "will be a top goalie" status. If we have to choose, I'd take the now vs the could be.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I think you're overestimating what a high level backup costs and underestimating what Andersen/low level backup would cost.

Andersen could probably get 5, and backup like 1 (possibly sub-1). That's 6.

Gibson makes 2.3, and a backup should cost similar. Here is a list of salary comparables, which seems appropriate ability-wise. So that's 4.

2 million is worth something.

I think your 6M estimate for Andersen + backup is pretty much spot on.

There aren't too many guys on the UFA market who I would classify as a 1B goalie. Reimer and Ward both likely command a greater salary than Gibson. Grabbing one of them to go with Gibby likely costs 5M+. The rest I would classify as backups, and the only ones with starting experience haven't done all that well with it.

As for the trade market, anyone affordable with starting experience is going to be coveted, even after we hypothetically move Freddie, and I don't think those options are overly abundant. If there's a 1B out there making less than $2M, whoever misses out on Andersen is likely to be all over that.

The math in your post is slightly off, or in the least that 2M difference is on the high end. I agree that Andersen + backup likely costs about 6M. Gibson + a 1B making similar money to him would be a total between 4 - 5M. So we're downgrading our starting goalie, as a win-now team, in order to save 1-2M, when we have 7.25M wrapped up in our # 6 and 7D. That's a tough pill to swallow.

 

[Duck Off]

I voted to keep Freddie.

Reasons why:

Gibson being ridiculously injury prone.

I think Gibson fetches a much larger return.

Gibson's inconsistency drives me crazy.

The team just seems much more confident when Freddie plays.

This is all assuming Freddie takes a fair deal to stay.

 

[snarktacular]

I think your 6M estimate for Andersen + backup is pretty much spot on.

There aren't too many guys on the UFA market who I would classify as a 1B goalie. Reimer and Ward both likely command a greater salary than Gibson. Grabbing one of them to go with Gibby likely costs 5M+. The rest I would classify as backups, and the only ones with starting experience haven't done all that well with it.

As for the trade market, anyone affordable with starting experience is going to be coveted, even after we hypothetically move Freddie, and I don't think those options are overly abundant. If there's a 1B out there making less than $2M, whoever misses out on Andersen is likely to be all over that.

The math in your post is slightly off, or in the least that 2M difference is on the high end. I agree that Andersen + backup likely costs about 6M. Gibson + a 1B making similar money to him would be a total between 4 - 5M. So we're downgrading our starting goalie, as a win-now team, in order to save 1-2M, when we have 7.25M wrapped up in our # 6 and 7D. That's a tough pill to swallow.

1-2 million is worth quite a bit to me, especially since we're apparently so desperate we need to retain 500k on Maroon. I think the caliber backup you're seeking is above what I'm interested in so that's the discrepancy. I want a better guy, but not really a 1b guy.

I actually agree with keeping Andersen, but it is with hockey reasons rather than financial reasons.

 

[Tecumseh]

Regardless of what should happen, my prediction is that Gibson will be the one to stay as he's been groomed to be the franchise goaltender since the day he was drafted

 

[DucksAreCool]

You think long and hard before wasting 5 million on a goalie, especially teams like us. Even then, there's only a handful of players who are really worth it at any time in that position. This year's playoffs have confirmed what the whole league already knew.

Beyond that, this would be more of a discussion if Freddie had shown himself to be any more than marginally better than Gibson.

The salary speculation in this thread is also off, in my view. Either goalie we keep would get the same level of backup. Apart from the fact that neither has inspired such confidence over the other that you could feel good with a cheap backup for one and not the other, goalies are easy to trade for later on.

But even if you considered the salary speculations in this thread correct you would still MUCH rather drop 5 million on two goalies spread evenly than 5 million on one with a cheap backup. Which contracts would be easy to move/ absorb if they don't work out? Which contract would you have a harder time moving?

 

[snarktacular]

You think long and hard before wasting 5 million on a goalie, especially teams like us. Even then, there's only a handful of players who are really worth it at any time in that position. This year's playoffs have confirmed what the whole league already knew.

Beyond that, this would be more of a discussion if Freddie had shown himself to be any more than marginally better than Gibson.

The salary speculation in this thread is also off, in my view. Either goalie we keep would get the same level of backup. Apart from the fact that neither has inspired such confidence over the other that you could feel good with a cheap backup for one and not the other, goalies are easy to trade for later on.

But even if you considered the salary speculations in this thread correct you would still MUCH rather drop 5 million on two goalies spread evenly than 5 million on one with a cheap backup. Which contracts would be easy to move/ absorb if they don't work out? Which contract would you have a harder time moving?

5 million would be 19th place in goalie salaries last year. Just saying.

I would think that a 2+ million goalie salary is actually unexpectedly hard to move. Just because teams normally already have their guy and would only want a low level backup, or they would want someone good (ie expensive). But yes that's still going to be easier than a 5+ guy.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I chose Andersen.

Andersen works off of technique. Gibson is more of a freestyle, based upon feel type goalie.

Well, you can identify strengths and weaknesses with technique. It's easier to improve.

For freestyle, well, every situation is kinda different. It's much more difficult to address what's wrong and how to improve it for next time when there isn't a set technique.

A coach can develop a game plan that works into a goal tender who's strengths and weaknesses have been identfied.

For all those that bring up that Gibson was chosen to be the franchise netminder, might I remind you that Bernier was thought of that way too for the Kings.

 

[KingJoffrey]

I would pick Andersen, but Murray has already commit to Gibson so it's pointless to us even discus this.

Next year will tough. Injury prone Gibson as undisputed #1 and Carlyle as our coach. Teams will expose Gibson's major weaknesses and our defense can't babysit him like they did in last year. If Gibson's stay healthy and he plays 55-60 games I would be suprised if he have over .908 sv%.

 

[Vipers31]

I would pick Andersen, but Murray has already commit to Gibson so it's pointless to us even discus this.

Next year will tough. Injury prone Gibson as undisputed #1 and Carlyle as our coach. Teams will expose Gibson's major weaknesses and our defense can't babysit him like they did in last year. If Gibson's stay healthy and he plays 55-60 games I would be suprised if he have over .908 sv%.

Sure, they only babysat Gibson, and they have done so last year, as well, when his numbers were better than that, as well. Because if Boudreau is known for one thing, it's that his teams boost his goalies' numbers (well, just one of his goalies' numbers). If we really get Carlyle and Freddie's traded this summer, we agree that he can count his blessings, though.

 

[smitty10]

If the Ducks trade Andersen I would hope that my Leafs are the team that acquires him. I think he could very well be our goaltender of the future.

What would you guys as fans expect as a return?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

If the Ducks trade Andersen I would hope that my Leafs are the team that acquires him. I think he could very well be our goaltender of the future.

What would you guys as fans expect as a return?

PIT 1st + solid forward prospect (Lindberg or Bracco)

 

[smitty10]

PIT 1st + solid forward prospect (Lindberg or Bracco)

I think that would be fair. I had proposed the 1st + Holland earlier. I hope something similar happens.

 

[IDuck]

just a reminder that goaltenders take BY FAR the longest to develop...my biggest concern with gibson is his injury history, and not that he will truely be a top end goalie...freddy to me is not only a starting NHL goalie, but a VERY good one...I feel like freddy has the ability to steal games or a sieries for that matter and think he is going to get better..wish we could have another year of them splitting time but dont know how its even possible.

 

[Sean Garrity]

Pick one. I constantly flip flop between Gibson and Andersen, but management needs to pick one, and they're way smarter than me.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

I love Freddy especially his puck handling and I know Gibson looked sketchy vs Nashville but so did whole team..... But Freddie's collapse vs Chicago when we needed him most still haunts me