2015 NHL Draft Discussion Part III

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drumzan

#NHLJets
Jul 9, 2011
3,396
1,351
1-EDMONTON - Connor McDavid
2-BUFFALO - Jack Eichel
3-ARIZONA - Dylan Strome
4-TORONTO - Noah Hanifin
5-CAROLINA - Mitch Marner
6-NEW JERSEY - Matt Barzal
7-PHILLY - Lawson Crouse
8-COLUMBUS - Ivan Provorov
9-SAN JOSE - Zach Werenski
10-COLORADO - Mikko Rantanen
11-FLORIDA - Pavel Zacha
12-DALLAS - Kyle Connor
13-LA - Travis Konecny
14-BOSTON - Timo Meier
15-CALGARY - Thomas Chabot
16-EDMONTON - Jeremy Roy

If the draft went like this, who would you all take at 17?

Right now, I think I'd lean Colin White. Then hope for Chlapik, Eriksson Ek or Kylington at 25.
 

Sixty Minute Man

Registered User
Apr 13, 2013
594
16
Winnipeg, Mb
1-EDMONTON - Connor McDavid
2-BUFFALO - Jack Eichel
3-ARIZONA - Dylan Strome
4-TORONTO - Noah Hanifin
5-CAROLINA - Mitch Marner
6-NEW JERSEY - Matt Barzal
7-PHILLY - Lawson Crouse
8-COLUMBUS - Ivan Provorov
9-SAN JOSE - Zach Werenski
10-COLORADO - Mikko Rantanen
11-FLORIDA - Pavel Zacha
12-DALLAS - Kyle Connor
13-LA - Travis Konecny
14-BOSTON - Timo Meier
15-CALGARY - Thomas Chabot
16-EDMONTON - Jeremy Roy

If the draft went like this, who would you all take at 17?

I have a feeling Colin White could be a tremendous steal and I would have a hard time passing on him at 17.

I also really like Anthony Beauvillier, Daniel Sprong, Yevgeni Svechnikov, Jansen Harkins, and Oliver Kylington at our first pick. Although I could see one or more of them lasting until our second pick.

If we could pick up two of those guys plus one of these defenseman in the second round, I'd be pretty happy with our first three picks:

Vande Sompel
Anderson
Pilon
Larsson
Brisebois
Meloche
Carlsson
Juulsen
 

stimpsoncat

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
494
307
1-EDMONTON - Connor McDavid
2-BUFFALO - Jack Eichel
3-ARIZONA - Dylan Strome
4-TORONTO - Noah Hanifin
5-CAROLINA - Mitch Marner
6-NEW JERSEY - Matt Barzal
7-PHILLY - Lawson Crouse
8-COLUMBUS - Ivan Provorov
9-SAN JOSE - Zach Werenski
10-COLORADO - Mikko Rantanen
11-FLORIDA - Pavel Zacha
12-DALLAS - Kyle Connor
13-LA - Travis Konecny
14-BOSTON - Timo Meier
15-CALGARY - Thomas Chabot
16-EDMONTON - Jeremy Roy

If the draft went like this, who would you all take at 17?

Yevgeni Svechnikov
 

Sixty Minute Man

Registered User
Apr 13, 2013
594
16
Winnipeg, Mb
I like the way you think 60MM, although I more think of Vande Sompel as a future forward.

He already plays forward on their PK and was their 1C when the team had injury issues.

Thanks Garret.

I knew Vande Sompel had played some forward on the PK, but not 1C when they had injuries. I guess that explains his point totals for the season. Seems like he has an all round well developed game.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Running statistical comparisons on most of those predicted in the first 3 rounds.


Closest statistical cohort to age, scoring, league, height for Ek E.:
CARL KLINGBERG

That said, 23% of the 39 guys to fit similarly made the NHL for at least 200 games. Just though funny the closest person was Klingberg.
 

Daddy Longlegs

Registered User
Aug 6, 2012
326
2
1-EDMONTON - Connor McDavid
2-BUFFALO - Jack Eichel
3-ARIZONA - Dylan Strome
4-TORONTO - Noah Hanifin
5-CAROLINA - Mitch Marner
6-NEW JERSEY - Matt Barzal
7-PHILLY - Lawson Crouse
8-COLUMBUS - Ivan Provorov
9-SAN JOSE - Zach Werenski
10-COLORADO - Mikko Rantanen
11-FLORIDA - Pavel Zacha
12-DALLAS - Kyle Connor
13-LA - Travis Konecny
14-BOSTON - Timo Meier
15-CALGARY - Thomas Chabot
16-EDMONTON - Jeremy Roy


If the draft went like this, who would you all take at 17?

Nick Merkley or Jansen Harkins
 

Daximus

Wow, what a terrific audience.
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Oct 11, 2014
39,284
25,567
Five Hills
1-EDMONTON - Connor McDavid
2-BUFFALO - Jack Eichel
3-ARIZONA - Dylan Strome
4-TORONTO - Noah Hanifin
5-CAROLINA - Mitch Marner
6-NEW JERSEY - Matt Barzal
7-PHILLY - Lawson Crouse
8-COLUMBUS - Ivan Provorov
9-SAN JOSE - Zach Werenski
10-COLORADO - Mikko Rantanen
11-FLORIDA - Pavel Zacha
12-DALLAS - Kyle Connor
13-LA - Travis Konecny
14-BOSTON - Timo Meier
15-CALGARY - Thomas Chabot
16-EDMONTON - Jeremy Roy

If the draft went like this, who would you all take at 17?

Svechnikov, 110%.
The kid has a lot more skill and potential than he gets credit for. He even has good center capabilities that could be explored. If not he ends up being a big scoring winger, which is an asset that is very hard to aquire. His defensive game needs work, which the Jets can teach. Certain things like size and natural skill can't be taught. Pro level systems can. I feel there is no Russian Factor with him at all, given his numerous interviews on his determination to play in the NHL. He's committed to making it at this level.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
I'm going to share a secret. Some cohort probability and cohort NHL pts/GP of some of the top D (ignoring the obvious trio of Hanafin, Werenski, and Provorov).

Screen_shot_2015_05_24_at_12_19_17_AM.png


You can sorta, but not quite, think of left as in safety and the right side as upside.
 

Daximus

Wow, what a terrific audience.
Sponsor
Oct 11, 2014
39,284
25,567
Five Hills
I'm going to share a secret. Some cohort probability and cohort NHL pts/GP of some of the top D (ignoring the obvious trio of Hanafin, Werenski, and Provorov).

Screen_shot_2015_05_24_at_12_19_17_AM.png


You can sorta, but not quite, think of left as in safety and the right side as upside.

Would Vande Sompels stats be skewed because of his forward play?
 

GJF

Beaver Jedi
Sep 26, 2011
8,823
2,527
Heidelberg, GER
I'm going to share a secret. Some cohort probability and cohort NHL pts/GP of some of the top D (ignoring the obvious trio of Hanafin, Werenski, and Provorov).

Screen_shot_2015_05_24_at_12_19_17_AM.png


You can sorta, but not quite, think of left as in safety and the right side as upside.

in other words:

- Meloche ist the safest overall pick around
- Roy has the highest ceiling but still is a rather safe pick
- Carlo has a big WARNING-sign on him
- Kylington and Larsson could be great picks in the bottom half of the first round


am I right?
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Would Vande Sompels stats be skewed because of his forward play?

probably but not certainly

in other words:

- Meloche ist the safest overall pick around
- Roy has the highest ceiling but still is a rather safe pick
- Carlo has a big WARNING-sign on him
- Kylington and Larsson could be great picks in the bottom half of the first round


am I right?

I'd agree

J Roy's d-1 numbers are similar too.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
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Jun 10, 2014
57,532
29,414
Meier or bust. Find a way to move up to get him.

I'd jump at Meier if he fell to us but he is one player I would not trade up for. More likely to be overrated than underrated. Ehlers pulled him up a bit I think.
 

GJF

Beaver Jedi
Sep 26, 2011
8,823
2,527
Heidelberg, GER
I'd jump at Meier if he fell to us but he is one player I would not trade up for. More likely to be overrated than underrated. Ehlers pulled him up a bit I think.

I'm with you. Meier may be a very legit 1st round pick but I would not trade up to reach for him. I fail to see why Meier over Sveshnikov (for example) would be a huge gain.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,532
29,414
I'm with you. Meier may be a very legit 1st round pick but I would not trade up to reach for him. I fail to see why Meier over Sveshnikov (for example) would be a huge gain.

Exactly!

If it is a bad idea to draft for position it has to be much worse to draft for chemistry between 2 players.
 

CaptainChef

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
7,868
815
Bedroom Jetsville
Think about this:

How many Russians have walked out from their NHL team (taking circumstances into consideration)?

How many Russians are in the NHL?

You're letting a very small amount of men poison a very big well that could give your NHL team success.

Don't trust what is going on in Russia period. You heard Federov proposing that no Russian prospects be allowed to play in the NHL before they were 28.

Just a proposal/suggestion, but a player has got to be a whole lot better than their non-Russian counterparts before I'd want to start messing with all that -- especially for a 1st or 2nd rounder.
 

CaptainChef

Registered User
Jan 5, 2014
7,868
815
Bedroom Jetsville
I'm going to share a secret. Some cohort probability and cohort NHL pts/GP of some of the top D (ignoring the obvious trio of Hanafin, Werenski, and Provorov).

Screen_shot_2015_05_24_at_12_19_17_AM.png


You can sorta, but not quite, think of left as in safety and the right side as upside.

Interesting. Despite that I see Meloche ranked way down on all scouting lists so suspect he's available with our second for sure.

Zboril on the other hand is rated anywhere from 16-22 & to me seems to be the best defensemen available at #17 -- although I'm sure I'll change my mind a few times yet before the draft
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=112379
 

Weezeric

Registered User
Jan 27, 2015
4,510
6,655
R Anderson is looking pretty good. He's a Barrie colt right? Pretty much the jets Ohl farm team. Sounds like a Chevy pick for sure.
 
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