2015 NHL Draft Cont. (UPD: Sharks stay @ 9th, Edmonton wins the lottery)

[Led Zappa]

I'm sure there is, but I have no idea where. I have some time between the end of the quarter and the draft so I'll probably look at some draft trends then.

I'd be interested to see that backed up because if true that is a HUGE deal IMHO.

 

[SactoShark]

It's nonsense to believe that Marleau is going to be easy to replace. Two-way wingers with speed, size, the ability to produce in shutdown minutes, AND kill penalties are not easily replaceable. Let's not fool ourselves here. While it's more important to have a 1C and 1D, it's not easy to replace what Marleau brings to the table.

Marleau is expendable.

Meanwhile, the world goes gaga over Hossa.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Marleau is expendable.

Meanwhile, the world goes gaga over Hossa.

Specifically the Hossa thing bothers me. Everyone and their mother is obsessed with how great Hossa is. Every time he scores my Twitter feed is full of his stats and odes and everything. It's all "Hossa's so underrated I can't believe he hasn't won the Selke he's so humble and classy" blah blah blah.

Meanwhile their playoff PPGs are nearly identical except Marleau has 10 more goals in 40 less games, including 3 more GWG. And he hasn't spent the last five years attached to Toews' hip.


If Marleau had a Toews, Keith, and Kane, I'm thinkin' he'd have a Cup or two and none of these feel-good pieces would be about Hossa.

 

[SactoShark]

It is bizarre how reputations are assigned. Hossa bounced around until he found a cast capable of winning a cup and now he's a hero. Marleau stays with the same team for his career and he's a bum.

At this stage of their careers, they're almost the same player. Yet, if you polled it now, you'd probably be laughed out of the room.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Specifically the Hossa thing bothers me. Everyone and their mother is obsessed with how great Hossa is. Every time he scores my Twitter feed is full of his stats and odes and everything. It's all "Hossa's so underrated I can't believe he hasn't won the Selke he's so humble and classy" blah blah blah.

Meanwhile their playoff PPGs are nearly identical except Marleau has 10 more goals in 40 less games, including 3 more GWG. And he hasn't spent the last five years attached to Toews' hip.


If Marleau had a Toews, Keith, and Kane, I'm thinkin' he'd have a Cup or two and none of these feel-good pieces would be about Hossa.

You might as well ask why Dustin Brown gets praised so much while Joe Thornton is criticized.

I think it comes down to the fact that Hossa has thrived in a role he is over-qualified for, while Marleau has fallen short of a role he is under-qualified for.

For much of his career, Marleau has been the #1 or #2 guy (maybe at times, #3) in San Jose. Look at how Hossa did in that position...as soon as he became the #4-5 guy (Toews, Kane, Keith, at least, in front of him), he did a lot better. Both players are great complementary guys, but they can't be the straw that stirs the drink.

The other difference I will point to, is that Hossa is a bit more of a swiss knife than Marleau. Soft, soft, soft hands, great stick skills, a willingness to drive to dirty areas, and a better passer. Marleau has the size, a better shot, and frankly, is faster.

Also, to be fair, his cap hit is 5ish million. Marleau's been around 6-7 for quite a while.

 

[SactoShark]

Also, to be fair, his cap hit is 5ish million. Marleau's been around 6-7 for quite a while.

Marleau's son might be draft eligible by the time Hossa's contract expires.

 

[Sharksrule04]

Sharks need an elite center, imo. Marleau can be easily replace, but Thornton not so much.

Again, Sharks management has boxed themselves into a corner. They can and will find a winger to replace Marleau's average goals per season rate, but it will be tough to find a replacement for Thornton on the assists stats.

This plus, the needs of defensemen and goalies (both starting and pipeline).

When you look at the Sharks individual, it does not look bad. One shutdown goalie like those we are seeing in the playoffs can go a long way. But when stepping back and looking at the larger picture, it looks worse. And, DW appears to be all out of his magic pixie dust.

Never realized how easy it was to replace consistent 35 goal scorers. Why isn't our whole lineup filled with guys putting up 35 goals.

 

[hockeyball]

Never realized how easy it was to replace consistent 35 goal scorers. Why isn't our whole lineup filled with guys putting up 35 goals.

I love Marleau.

He's not a consistent 35 goal scorer. He's a consistent 30 goal scorer. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it's a million or so in salary difference.

 

[LadyStanley]

http://sharks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=769669
A look at the new technology and testing to be in use at Draft Combine.

Marleau's son might be draft eligible by the time Hossa's contract expires.

Which one (of four)?

 

[Mafoofoo]

Which one (of four)?

All of them.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

All of them.

So Landon Marleau is draft eligible at the age of 14 ?


He must be better than McDavid.

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

To me, goalies are a crapshoot. It won't really make a difference if we draft a goalie on the 2nd or the 5th. (Unless his upside is huge enough)

Besides, this year's draft is not the strongest draft for goalies, if the Sharks want to take a goalie with their 2nd, I hope it's not this year.

I think Samsonov or Blackwood might be worth picking early in the second round, but if neither is available they should wait until the later rounds.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

I think Samsonov or Blackwood might be worth picking early in the second round, but if neither is available they should wait until the later rounds.

Personally, I don't want Blackwood.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think Samsonov or Blackwood might be worth picking early in the second round, but if neither is available they should wait until the later rounds.

I heard Samsonov declined his invitation to the combine. Gotta imagine that affects his draft stock.

As for Blackwood, he's a late '96 birthday and his stats are very underwhelming. The early 2nd round is for elite goalie prospects like John Gibson.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I am hoping that we can flip our (or Colorado's) 2016 2nd to trade for a goalie prospect.

 

[sr228]

I am hoping that we can flip our (or Colorado's) 2016 2nd to trade for a goalie prospect.

Unless that prospect is very good I'd rather they try to use one of those 2nds on an actual starter.

I do hope they use at least one of their 2015 4th-7th round picks on a goalie though.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

Unless that prospect is very good I'd rather they try to use one of those 2nds on an actual starter.

I do hope they use at least one of their 2015 4th-7th round picks on a goalie though.

Wait till 2016, then we can get our hands on Carter Hart /Evan Fitzpatrick ...........

 

[sr228]

Wait till 2016, then we can get our hands on Carter Hart ...........

I think they've waited long enough.

 

[Gilligans Island]

I am hoping that we can flip our (or Colorado's) 2016 2nd to trade for a goalie prospect.

Is there a Kiprusoff-like goalie out there? If so, then I'd consider flipping our 2nd otherwise, we're overpaying.

 

[CanadienShark]

Alright, so I was just lurkin' in the Flyers' draft thread and I saw a couple posts that I found interesting. The first is regarding birthdays and the second is regarding draft-1 scoring. I've see those ideas before but I figured I'd look in depth at guys who might fit the profile in this draft.


Firstly, defensemen who have late (May or later) birthdays (in order of oldest to youngest). All but Werenski have a chance of falling out of the first (although I don't think Roy or Kylington will):

--May--
Jeremy Roy
Vili Saarijarvi
Oliver Kylington
Jesper Lindgren
Erik Cernak
--June--
Caleb Jones
Ethan Bear
--July--
Nicolas Meloche
Zach Werenski
Guillaume Brisebois
Brendan Guhle
--August--
Parker Wotherspoon
--September ('97)--
Nicholas Boka


The majority of defenseman steals come from the 2nd round, so from this group, I've singled out Meloche as someone I'm interested in a lot at 39th. Besides the young birthdate, he's got a solid draft-1 and draft year in terms of scoring in the QMJHL. He's supposedly mobile, physical, good defensively. I have not seen him play more than once, so this is all secondhand. But I think this would be an interesting upside pick. The 99 PIM in 44 games stands out.

I've watched both Jones and Boka significantly with the NTDP and both are solid yet unspectacular players; could be solid bottom pairing guys in the NHL; Particularly Jones improved a lot from the beginning of the year until now, and he's moving to the WHL next season. Could be an interesting pick in the 4th or later.

I've been impressed by Parker Wotherspoon each time I've watched him, much more than his brother Tyler ever did. Kinda played second fiddle to Carlo in terms of hype but I think Wotherspoon is the better player. Despite being almost a full year younger than Carlo, Wotherspoon was only 9 points off the team lead. Keep in mind that Tri-City was very weak offensively. Definitely a reach at 39th but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in the late 2nd.

I don't know that much about Erik Cernak (except that Corey Pronman is very high on him), and since I don't know much about Slovakia's top league I can't speak to his stats, but they look pretty solid for a young guy in a men's league. Big kid.

I've talked about Lindgren enough. Karlsson type of player, RHD. Both late May birthdays, both were about a point per game in J20 SuperElit in about 40 games in their draft years and put up a point in a handful of SHL games. Karlsson's point totals at the U18 were better. Same height, same build (although Lindgren needs to put on some serious weight). I doubt Lindgren has Karlsson's skating and his defensive game is a work in progress, to put it nicely, but if we're looking for upside here's a guy to look at.

Saarijarvi is a name that only came onto my radar because he was named best defenseman at the U18. Tiny (5'9") Finnish offensive defenseman. Seems like a Sami Vatanen type, who was an early June birthday and a 4th rounder. Saarijarvi put up better draft-1 years in the Finnish J20 league than Vatanen put up in his draft year. Saarijarvi spent this past season in the USHL, where he was 9 points off the team lead (albeit with more games played) on a low-scoring team.


The second post reminded me of a trend that I've seen repeated several times, which is that a player's draft-1 point totals are more predictive of NHL success than their draft year. Specifically, this puts Konecny, Kylington, Roy, White, and Zacha back on the map in a BIG way. Pretty much holds Sprong, Barzal, Marner, Connor, Werenski, and Hanifin steady. Detriments Strome, Rantanen, Meier, and Provorov. But it's really Kylington and Konecny that I see as litmus tests for this trend from this draft.

Well said. I know very little about this draft, but this is a particularly insightful post. Curious, of those potential second round defencemen, who would your pick be? Stylistically (given your comparisons), Lindgren and Saarijarvi seem like the most attractive. On your comment about draft-1 year compared to draft year, I mostly agree, but have to acknowledge that there are always late risers that rightly remain high on lists (guys like Horvat). Of course you don't mean that it's a hard and fast rule, but it's certainly an interesting trend to observe.

 

[CanadienShark]

It's nonsense to believe that Marleau is going to be easy to replace. Two-way wingers with speed, size, the ability to produce in shutdown minutes, AND kill penalties are not easily replaceable. Let's not fool ourselves here. While it's more important to have a 1C and 1D, it's not easy to replace what Marleau brings to the table.

Of course, he won't easily be replaced. He'll be relatively easy to replace, compared to Thornton. I think that was his point.

 

[sr228]

Well said. I know very little about this draft, but this is a particularly insightful post. Curious, of those potential second round defencemen, who would your pick be? Stylistically (given your comparisons), Lindgren and Saarijarvi seem like the most attractive. .

Of the d-men Jux listed that could be 2nd rounder the only one I think is worth picking at 39th is Meloche.

While Lindgren & Saarijarvi both might have some pretty good upside there is a ton of risk with both and there should be much better options available at 39.

 

[SactoShark]

So Landon Marleau is draft eligible at the age of 14 ?


He must be better than McDavid.

I like that you did the math.

 

[CanadienShark]

Of the d-men Jux listed that could be 2nd rounder the only one I think is worth picking at 39th is Meloche.

While Lindgren & Saarijarvi both might have some pretty good upside there is a ton of risk with both and there should be much better options available at 39.

I honestly don't know a thing about Meloche. Could you give a little synopsis of his game?

 

[hockeyball]

I honestly don't know a thing about Meloche. Could you give a little synopsis of his game?

He uses a long stick bent at one end to place a small cylindrical piece of rubber into a goal all while wearing ice skates.




Sorry, couldn't resist.