2015 NHL Draft Cont. (UPD: Sharks stay @ 9th, Edmonton wins the lottery)

[Hold the Pickles]

How about mckeens? Barzal is dropping there as well.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I generally like Button's lists but this year he's been absolutely nuts.

McKeen's, even if I don't totally agree, is thoughtful. Draft day is going to be very interesting after McDavid and Eichel.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I generally like Button's lists but this year he's been absolutely nuts.

McKeen's, even if I don't totally agree, is thoughtful. Draft day is going to be very interesting after McDavid and Eichel.

Yea the issue I have is Button only provides reasoning for the top 5. I would love to hear how he thinks Zacha drops to 24 and some of the other big droppers.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I generally like Button's lists but this year he's been absolutely nuts.

McKeen's, even if I don't totally agree, is thoughtful. Draft day is going to be very interesting after McDavid and Eichel.

I know. Its going to be an exciting day. I was going to take it off from work but I work from home on Th/Fr anyway .. so it worked out ..

Also, I know I mentioned it before but the FC Draft guide has Barzal at 9. It is highly detailed and I am liking the information in there. It also has Crouse at 10 which actually makes a lot of sense to me (from a draft order perspective). What I am really waiting for is the Black Book to come out. That should be pretty good as well.

 

[SactoShark]

Yea Button's rankings are the equivalent of a rebelious teenager. He makes crazy rankings just to get hits/create conversation.

Konecny at 33? Sprong at 38? Zacha at 24?

Just for fun, lets say his rankings were right, I'd trade our first and both of next years 2nd's for late a late first and 3-4 more 2nds and walk away with Zacha (25), Konecny (33), Sprong (38), Kylington (47) and Juulsen (41). LOL

Imagine coming away with that from a draft?

Oh well, these rankings are a joke.

You might say Craig…

is pushing…

our Buttons.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I know. Its going to be an exciting day. I was going to take it off from work but I work from home on Th/Fr anyway .. so it worked out ..

Also, I know I mentioned it before but the FC Draft guide has Barzal at 9. It is highly detailed and I am liking the information in there. It also has Crouse at 10 which actually makes a lot of sense to me (from a draft order perspective). What I am really waiting for is the Black Book to come out. That should be pretty good as well.

Yeah, I personally have no problem with Crouse at 9, even though there are others I'd prefer. And on Barzal, I'm gonna guess that the immediacy effect of the U18 is starting to wear off and people are slowly putting him back closer where they had him before. He's still 7th on my list.

 

[sr228]

Whats up with Barzal dropping? Size?

I don't know that it's so much Barzal dropping as other rising, or a combo of the two.

That said some scouts value size more than others and that could be the case with Barzal.

 

[The Nemesis]

Button on TSN's That's Hockey show explaining some of his last rankings and I think he made them the way he did so that he could then discuss specific pick scenarios that make sense given his rakings. Dumping Hanafin down seems to be a function of him wanting to talk about how the Leafs should take Provorov with their first. He also really pushed Samsonov up the list seemingly so it justifies him recommending the Oilers use their second 1st rounder to take him.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

Besides his size, Crouse is pretty good looking.

Don't know if this will raise his stock ?

 

[stator]

Hanifin at 12. Yah .. that is going to happen.

I like Hanifin for the Sharks... always had. Sharks should work hard for a trade with AZ to pick up the 3rd position in the draft. However, I also see a couple of problems that will make it unlikely.

First, AZ will see their 3rd round pick as if it was for McDavid, and thus the bar will likely be too high.

Second, Sharks are hampered by Marleau and Thornton's contracts. They don't have good flexibility with trading forwards right now.

And finally, what the heck is to be done with the goalie situation? Sharks don't have a goalie capable of being 1st string for a perennial playoff team (not a 1st round and typical exit team). Neither Niemi or Stalock has shown any capability to be that person. Stalock cannot see to cross the bridge from potential to playing consistently at that level. Niemi only showed one year's worth of being that type of goalie while on the Sharks.

I like Hanafin and Tomek, and feel that outside of the top two forwards in the draft, those should be the Sharks' first and second picks.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

I like Hanifin for the Sharks... always had. Sharks should work hard for a trade with AZ to pick up the 3rd position in the draft. However, I also see a couple of problems that will make it unlikely.

First, AZ will see their 3rd round pick as if it was for McDavid, and thus the bar will likely be too high.

Second, Sharks are hampered by Marleau and Thornton's contracts. They don't have good flexibility with trading forwards right now.

And finally, what the heck is to be done with the goalie situation? Sharks don't have a goalie capable of being 1st string for a perennial playoff team (not a 1st round and typical exit team). Neither Niemi or Stalock has shown any capability to be that person. Stalock cannot see to cross the bridge from potential to playing consistently at that level. Niemi only showed one year's worth of being that type of goalie while on the Sharks.

I like Hanafin and Tomek, and feel that outside of the top two forwards in the draft, those should be the Sharks' first and second picks.

Tomek is at least 3-4 years from the NHL, we are better off with NHL-proven goalies.

 

[SactoShark]

Besides his size, Crouse is pretty good looking.

Don't know if this will raise his stock ?

Always draft best [looking] available.

James Sheppard was drafted 9th overall.

 

[matt trick]

Yeah, I personally have no problem with Crouse at 9, even though there are others I'd prefer. And on Barzal, I'm gonna guess that the immediacy effect of the U18 is starting to wear off and people are slowly putting him back closer where they had him before. He's still 7th on my list.

I have a feeling Crouse is going to annihilate the combine, and go #7 to Philly. Also, I wouldn't be at all shocked if he came in #1 on Vo2, and we paid a 2nd to jump up and take him, leaving Provorov on the board, and causing collective HF Sharks meltdown.

I am fine with whoever the team feels is the right pick, but if we don't fill a first line or top two d spot with the ninth pick in such a good draft, I think it'd be a missed opportunity.

My ideal off season is drafting an elite winger with our 1st, and acquiring a future top pairing d-man (Jones, Hanafin, ect.) using any other non-Hertl/Vlasic/Pavelski assets (i.e. Couture+).

If we can add a boom/bust goalie, and Andrej Sekera/Wizsniewski, so much the better.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Alright, so I was just lurkin' in the Flyers' draft thread and I saw a couple posts that I found interesting. The first is regarding birthdays and the second is regarding draft-1 scoring. I've see those ideas before but I figured I'd look in depth at guys who might fit the profile in this draft.


Firstly, defensemen who have late (May or later) birthdays (in order of oldest to youngest). All but Werenski have a chance of falling out of the first (although I don't think Roy or Kylington will):

--May--
Jeremy Roy
Vili Saarijarvi
Oliver Kylington
Jesper Lindgren
Erik Cernak
--June--
Caleb Jones
Ethan Bear
--July--
Nicolas Meloche
Zach Werenski
Guillaume Brisebois
Brendan Guhle
--August--
Parker Wotherspoon
--September ('97)--
Nicholas Boka


The majority of defenseman steals come from the 2nd round, so from this group, I've singled out Meloche as someone I'm interested in a lot at 39th. Besides the young birthdate, he's got a solid draft-1 and draft year in terms of scoring in the QMJHL. He's supposedly mobile, physical, good defensively. I have not seen him play more than once, so this is all secondhand. But I think this would be an interesting upside pick. The 99 PIM in 44 games stands out.

I've watched both Jones and Boka significantly with the NTDP and both are solid yet unspectacular players; could be solid bottom pairing guys in the NHL; Particularly Jones improved a lot from the beginning of the year until now, and he's moving to the WHL next season. Could be an interesting pick in the 4th or later.

I've been impressed by Parker Wotherspoon each time I've watched him, much more than his brother Tyler ever did. Kinda played second fiddle to Carlo in terms of hype but I think Wotherspoon is the better player. Despite being almost a full year younger than Carlo, Wotherspoon was only 9 points off the team lead. Keep in mind that Tri-City was very weak offensively. Definitely a reach at 39th but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in the late 2nd.

I don't know that much about Erik Cernak (except that Corey Pronman is very high on him), and since I don't know much about Slovakia's top league I can't speak to his stats, but they look pretty solid for a young guy in a men's league. Big kid.

I've talked about Lindgren enough. Karlsson type of player, RHD. Both late May birthdays, both were about a point per game in J20 SuperElit in about 40 games in their draft years and put up a point in a handful of SHL games. Karlsson's point totals at the U18 were better. Same height, same build (although Lindgren needs to put on some serious weight). I doubt Lindgren has Karlsson's skating and his defensive game is a work in progress, to put it nicely, but if we're looking for upside here's a guy to look at.

Saarijarvi is a name that only came onto my radar because he was named best defenseman at the U18. Tiny (5'9") Finnish offensive defenseman. Seems like a Sami Vatanen type, who was an early June birthday and a 4th rounder. Saarijarvi put up better draft-1 years in the Finnish J20 league than Vatanen put up in his draft year. Saarijarvi spent this past season in the USHL, where he was 9 points off the team lead (albeit with more games played) on a low-scoring team.


The second post reminded me of a trend that I've seen repeated several times, which is that a player's draft-1 point totals are more predictive of NHL success than their draft year. Specifically, this puts Konecny, Kylington, Roy, White, and Zacha back on the map in a BIG way. Pretty much holds Sprong, Barzal, Marner, Connor, Werenski, and Hanifin steady. Detriments Strome, Rantanen, Meier, and Provorov. But it's really Kylington and Konecny that I see as litmus tests for this trend from this draft.

 

[sr228]

I have a feeling Crouse is going to annihilate the combine, and go #7 to Philly. Also, I wouldn't be at all shocked if he came in #1 on Vo2, and we paid a 2nd to jump up and take him, leaving Provorov on the board, and causing collective HF Sharks meltdown.

I am fine with whoever the team feels is the right pick, but if we don't fill a first line or top two d spot with the ninth pick in such a good draft, I think it'd be a missed opportunity.

My ideal off season is drafting an elite winger with our 1st, and acquiring a future top pairing d-man (Jones, Hanafin, ect.) using any other non-Hertl/Vlasic/Pavelski assets (i.e. Couture+).

If we can add a boom/bust goalie, and Andrej Sekera/Wizsniewski, so much the better.

Not asking for much this off season are you

I don't expect them to get a top line / top pairing prospect with the #9. They may be able to draft someone who has that type of ceiling but I'm not so sure it's realistic to expect the prospect to actually hit that ceiling.

Out of curiosity, why would you rather they trade Couture over Pavelski? Is it due to Pavelski's mod-NTC vs none for Couture right now?

In a vacuum a Couture for a legit top pairing d-man trade could be a good move but I think the Sharks would have one hell of a time trying to fill Couture's shoes up front.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Not asking for much this off season are you

I don't expect them to get a top line / top pairing prospect with the #9. They may be able to draft someone who has that type of ceiling but I'm not so sure it's realistic to expect the prospect to actually hit that ceiling.

Out of curiosity, why would you rather they trade Couture over Pavelski? Is it due to Pavelski's mod-NTC vs none for Couture right now?

In a vacuum a Couture for a legit top pairing d-man trade could be a good move but I think the Sharks would have one hell of a time trying to fill Couture's shoes up front.

I think a lot of people expect Hertl to fill those shoes. But Hertl has a long way to go till we start even talking about him at the same level as Couture. I like the kid and would love for him to succeed but I don't think he is at the same talent/skill level.

 

[sr228]

I think a lot of people expect Hertl to fill those shoes. But Hertl has a long way to go till we start even talking about him at the same level as Couture. I like the kid and would love for him to succeed but I don't think he is at the same talent/skill level.

Oh. Ya, he does.

I know Couture struggled some this season defensively playing against the other teams top players but being able to put up the ES p/60 he did in tough minutes is impressive. I like Hertl a lot but I'd be surprised if Hertl ever gets to that level.

Anyway, back to the draft...here's USA Today (Kyle Woodief / RLR) mock draft, it's another one that has Barzal dropping pretty far:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-and-then/28302331/

 

[stator]

Tomek is at least 3-4 years from the NHL, we are better off with NHL-proven goalies.

Not looking at Tomek for the immediate starting goalie position, who in their right mind would? Sharks have put themselves in a corner and need to fill the pipeline and the main roster for both goalies and defensemen.

 

[stator]

My ideal off season is drafting an elite winger with our 1st, and acquiring a future top pairing d-man (Jones, Hanafin, ect.) using any other non-Hertl/Vlasic/Pavelski assets (i.e. Couture+).

Sharks need an elite center, imo. Marleau can be easily replace, but Thornton not so much.

Again, Sharks management has boxed themselves into a corner. They can and will find a winger to replace Marleau's average goals per season rate, but it will be tough to find a replacement for Thornton on the assists stats.

This plus, the needs of defensemen and goalies (both starting and pipeline).

When you look at the Sharks individual, it does not look bad. One shutdown goalie like those we are seeing in the playoffs can go a long way. But when stepping back and looking at the larger picture, it looks worse. And, DW appears to be all out of his magic pixie dust.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

Not looking at Tomek for the immediate starting goalie position, who in their right mind would? Sharks have put themselves in a corner and need to fill the pipeline and the main roster for both goalies and defensemen.

To me, goalies are a crapshoot. It won't really make a difference if we draft a goalie on the 2nd or the 5th. (Unless his upside is huge enough)

Besides, this year's draft is not the strongest draft for goalies, if the Sharks want to take a goalie with their 2nd, I hope it's not this year.

 

[Led Zappa]

The second post reminded me of a trend that I've seen repeated several times, which is that a player's draft-1 point totals are more predictive of NHL success than their draft year. Specifically, this puts Konecny, Kylington, Roy, White, and Zacha back on the map in a BIG way. Pretty much holds Sprong, Barzal, Marner, Connor, Werenski, and Hanifin steady. Detriments Strome, Rantanen, Meier, and Provorov. But it's really Kylington and Konecny that I see as litmus tests for this trend from this draft.

What does the bolded mean?

 

[sr228]

What does the bolded mean?

It refers to the year prior to a prospect being draft eligible. Usually it's their 16/17 year old season.

 

[Led Zappa]

It refers to the year prior to a prospect being draft eligible. Usually it's their 16/17 year old season.

Interesting.

Jux, is there any easily accessible data to back this up?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Interesting.

Jux, is there any easily accessible data to back this up?

I'm sure there is, but I have no idea where. I have some time between the end of the quarter and the draft so I'll probably look at some draft trends then.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Sharks need an elite center, imo. Marleau can be easily replace, but Thornton not so much.

Again, Sharks management has boxed themselves into a corner. They can and will find a winger to replace Marleau's average goals per season rate, but it will be tough to find a replacement for Thornton on the assists stats.

This plus, the needs of defensemen and goalies (both starting and pipeline).

When you look at the Sharks individual, it does not look bad. One shutdown goalie like those we are seeing in the playoffs can go a long way. But when stepping back and looking at the larger picture, it looks worse. And, DW appears to be all out of his magic pixie dust.

It's nonsense to believe that Marleau is going to be easy to replace. Two-way wingers with speed, size, the ability to produce in shutdown minutes, AND kill penalties are not easily replaceable. Let's not fool ourselves here. While it's more important to have a 1C and 1D, it's not easy to replace what Marleau brings to the table.