2014 Training Camp

[CrypTic]

Basically, he's not trying to win. He'll let them play with what they have, but he's not going to invest ANY equity in this team right now. If he could steal a good player for next to nothing of course he's going to do that, that's just smart asset management.

I agree with this. The question is why.

The answer will come at the deadline. One of these things will happen:

. . . .
Basically, the telling sign will be if at the deadline the Sharks have not locked up a playoff spot and Wilson starts selling. If he does that, he's clearly trying to get rid of Thornton. If they have locked up a spot and he doesn't add, he clearly has no confidence in the roster and is sticking to his guns until Thornton is gone.

Now, if he does start filling holes at some point, he's changed his mind and decided to go for it, but I think that time is past. Too many holes to fill, too much turn over mid season.

I also question if DW will sell or buy at the TDL if we're in scenarios 2 or 3, which I think are the most likely. I.e., likely to make the playoffs but not go far or possibly fighting for a playoff spot.

What I don't know is how much of this is DW and how much is Plattner. Anyone have any insight into that?

I think there's a good chance that DW's job is on the line and I'm not sure how much he'd be willing to risk that to "win" a psychological battle with Thornton (if that's what is going on).

It seems that there is a spending cap this year. But how much, if any, $$$ will there be at the TDL? If there is a low cap, DW's hands may be tied with respect to buying at the TDL. If it's not all that low, DW may be saving salary now in order to try to acquire good players at the TDL if we are in a situation where that would be warranted (e.g., players and $$$ available for a deeper cup run, players and $$ available to make the playoffs if we're just outside it or at risk of losing a playoff spot).

I'm not ruling out the possibility that some of this is a psychological game between DW and Thornton. But I think some of the questionable decisions may be because of what may be going on between DW and Plattner.

 

[Led Zappa]

@hockeyball

Wilson is not going to make any player decisions based on trying or not trying to force JT to leave.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

@hockeyball

Wilson is not going to make any player decisions based on trying or not trying to force JT to leave.

Seriously. He gave him a choice and he chose to stay. So DW is going to go about his plans with or without JT.

 

[hockeyball]

Or since he and his personnel group know his players better than anyone outside the org. They knew that Mueller, Tierney and Goodrow were that close to making the team so why go waste cap space on outside assets when you can fill them internally for cheap? Its pretty obvious the Sharks are trying to integrate young players and stay competitive at the same time. Look how they drafted..no young 17 year olds.

While I basically agree with you, I don't think that even remotely covers the quantity of issues the Sharks are facing if they plan to win a cup this season.

The most optimistic expectations are that Tierney and Goodrow can place Torres and Havlat and do so for an entire NHL season + playoffs (asking a LOT from rookies). Mueller has an exceptional season and completely fills one hole on left wing (but not the other). That still leaves you with no replacement for Burns, a couple of huge if's in goal, and betting on no softmore slumps from Hertl/Nieto (if so then that production needs to be replaced as well).

Basically absolutely everything has to go right for the Sharks to do the above, and that still leaves them short a Burns at forward (a huge hole) to even match last years roster, let alone exceed it. As Wilson is not in fact stupid (no matter what people here say) he knows all this.

I believe Wilson planned to do this rebuild a season ago, changed his mind last season when the team was playing so well, and then re-committed to it after they fell on their faces. I doubt anything short of a presidents trophy is going to change his mind this time (fool me twice, shame on me) as it puts his neck on the line. If he's already sold ownership on his current plan (rebuild on the fly, keep season ticket sales up and playoffs a possibility, but do not aggressively pursue cup by trading futures) he's safer to stick to it then to stick his neck out. Because if he does, he might get fired for it. If he sticks to a plan the owners already approved, he's safe.

 

[hockeyball]

@hockeyball

Wilson is not going to make any player decisions based on trying or not trying to force JT to leave.

It not so much Thornton himself as it is sticking to a specific rebuild plan they have set in place, that they appeared to try and start last season, then delay it when it looked like the Sharks might win. I doubt they do that again. They already aborted once, it's going to take a lot to convince them to abandon it again.

 

[OrrNumber4]

The jury is in on this core. It is highly unlikely that they can get it done; that includes the executive staff.

That is the frame of mind I have regarding this season. It is all about the playoffs, and the Sharks are playoff midgets.

 

[Led Zappa]

It not so much Thornton himself as it is sticking to a specific rebuild plan they have set in place, that they appeared to try and start last season, then delay it when it looked like the Sharks might win. I doubt they do that again. They already aborted once, it's going to take a lot to convince them to abandon it again.

I don't disagree with this, but then why do you keep posting this:

Basically, the telling sign will be if at the deadline the Sharks have not locked up a playoff spot and Wilson starts selling. If he does that, he's clearly trying to get rid of Thornton. If they have locked up a spot and he doesn't add, he clearly has no confidence in the roster and is sticking to his guns until Thornton is gone.

 

[hohosaregood]

Why's it all based on going for it this year? If the kids are showing skill and ability now and they continue to improve, the depth just gets better and better even if the top end diminishes. No reason to go cup or bust this year.

 

[sr228]

Why's it all based on going for it this year? If the kids are showing skill and ability now and they continue to improve, the depth just gets better and better even if the top end diminishes. No reason to go cup or bust this year.

No one thinks they're going 'cup or bust' this year.

That doesn't mean that they won't be trying to win or that they won't improve the team if they see an opportunity to do so.

Integrating youth / looking to the future and trying to win the Cup don't have to be mutually exclusive.

 

[hohosaregood]

No one thinks they're going 'cup or bust' this year.

That doesn't mean that they won't be trying to win or that they won't improve the team if they see an opportunity to do so.

Integrating youth / looking to the future and trying to win the Cup aren't mutually exclusive.

I'm just saying that there's a lot of "if they don't win this year, then they need to sell everything just to get rid of Thornton"

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm just saying that there's a lot of "if they don't win this year, then they need to sell everything just to get rid of Thornton"

Personally, I think it's just certain people they need to get rid of like Burish, Kennedy, Hannan, Irwin, and anyone who doesn't want to be here. Everyone else is fine and the spots left vacant should be filled by their prospects and/or decent free agents that make sense for what they're doing and not just whoever they can get their hands on.

 

[sr228]

I'm just saying that there's a lot of "if they don't win this year, then they need to sell everything just to get rid of Thornton"

Oh. Sorry, I misinterpreted your post.

I don't believe that for a second.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Personally, I think it's just certain people they need to get rid of like Burish, Kennedy, Hannan, Irwin, and anyone who doesn't want to be here. Everyone else is fine and the spots left vacant should be filled by their prospects and/or decent free agents that make sense for what they're doing and not just whoever they can get their hands on.

This is the scenario that makes the most sense to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few Sharks moved throughout the year.

 

[hohosaregood]

Oh. Sorry, I misinterpreted your post.

I don't believe that for a second.

It's alright, I wasn't being too clear.

 

[hockeyball]

I don't disagree with this, but then why do you keep posting this:

Root cause basically. If they are rebuilding they cannot complete that process until the old guard is gone more than likely. At this point, that's basically just Thornton left (Marleau probably won't accept a trade at any point, as I don't think he'll value a cup over leaving San Jose, which is disheartening, hope I'm wrong). I should probably not say it that way because your right, it indicates a bias on my end.

Basically this is the thought process of the org as I see it (based on their statements):

This core had it's chance -> Rebuild -> Trade players of value -> Do not spend futures to bolster team until rebuild complete -> Rebuild not complete until Thornton traded -> Continue as above until rebuild complete.

So Thornton ends up kind of the lynchpin there, which is why i worded it that way. Marleau of course also throws in a kink into this, but as a complimentary player I'm betting they feel they can wait out his contract and just kind of proceed around him. I imagine with Thornton they feel they can proceed working around him up to a point, which they haven't gotten to yet, but him staying isn't going to change their plan.

I'm just saying that there's a lot of "if they don't win this year, then they need to sell everything just to get rid of Thornton"

That's not what I am implying, I'm not sure if others are. Basically what I'm saying is I expect the team has a specific plan for this rebuild and it involves trading off certain players, and acquiring draft picks and futures. Any acquisition that involves the trading of futures, and does not bring back a long term asset, is counter productive. Hence right now they are proceeding as plan, working around Thornton, and assuming that if he see's they are not going to change their mind and add for a cup a run he will waive his clause in order to go somewhere he can win.

The way you worded implies they are doing it to spite Thornton. I doubt highly that is the case. There is likely some frustration there that he refused to waive, but I imagine they are just proceeding as planned and ignoring Thornton for the time being. At least until it comes to the point where they need his cap space for something else.

 

[TheHockeyRant]

Kinda sucks that Goodrow is hurt, but I'm happy that McGinn is playing. I hope he turns into another good player than the Flyers traded ^^

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This is the scenario that makes the most sense to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few Sharks moved throughout the year.

Some of it depends on how well they really do and who solidifies themselves. I have a hard time seeing Tyler Kennedy finish the season here. I have a hard time seeing Matt Irwin finish the season here if he can't crack the lineup over Hannan going forward. Hannan may be fine with a #7 spot but if the team is flailing and out of the playoffs, he may want out. Burish will likely be that cockroach that you can't get rid of even though they should've CBO'd him. If Stalock shows that he is at least close to Niemi's equal with a larger workload, the Sharks may rent Niemi elsewhere regardless of playoff positioning.

They have a lot of parts that can be moved if it makes sense for them. And if kids like Goodrow and Tierney stick, it puts the team in a position where they almost need to move those guys.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Some of it depends on how well they really do and who solidifies themselves. I have a hard time seeing Tyler Kennedy finish the season here. I have a hard time seeing Matt Irwin finish the season here if he can't crack the lineup over Hannan going forward. Hannan may be fine with a #7 spot but if the team is flailing and out of the playoffs, he may want out. Burish will likely be that cockroach that you can't get rid of even though they should've CBO'd him. If Stalock shows that he is at least close to Niemi's equal with a larger workload, the Sharks may rent Niemi elsewhere regardless of playoff positioning.

They have a lot of parts that can be moved if it makes sense for them. And if kids like Goodrow and Tierney stick, it puts the team in a position where they almost need to move those guys.

Yup. I don't see Kennedy, Irwin and Burish finishing the year if the kids keep out playing them. Kennedy will still be attractive to teams that need forward depth.

 

[SJeasy]

HB,
I do think Plattner pulled in the purse strings on DW. I don't think it was accidental that they have lesser number on their 50 man roster or that they are farther from the cap. I do think Plattner will loosen up but only if DW is certain the team will improve. That may be part of the conversation, "if you want the money, it is your job if the results aren't there." In terms of trades, that may mean go big or go home.

I do think that DW effectively knows that a finish that nets him a #12-#22 pick is not terribly productive. Either the team is good enough to get a lower pick than #22 or you really need to finish lower than just outside the playoffs.

Why's it all based on going for it this year? If the kids are showing skill and ability now and they continue to improve, the depth just gets better and better even if the top end diminishes. No reason to go cup or bust this year.

To rebuild on the fly, you have to bank on youth not just replacing the lost production of declining players but improving on it if you expect to do better in the standings or the playoffs. Just replacing what is lost is a net of ZERO. For example if Marleau plus Nieto was 105 pts last year, you need them to total 115 pts or better this year, even if Marleau loses 5 pts on his total. That is incredibly hard to do.

Personally, I think it's just certain people they need to get rid of like Burish, Kennedy, Hannan, Irwin, and anyone who doesn't want to be here. Everyone else is fine and the spots left vacant should be filled by their prospects and/or decent free agents that make sense for what they're doing and not just whoever they can get their hands on.

It is possible that youth movement means that he isn't going to make moves for vet players who are questionable. He'd prefer the question marks on players that are younger. I would suspect that he knew that C. White wasn't what he once was when acquiring him. There were quotes around the acquisition of others that he clearly thought they were at par (Wallin, Rivet) with career numbers, but some not so much (possibly Kennedy). He may no longer be tossing out, "Oh, it was just a down year for player X when thinking of acquiring him."

 

[TheHockeyRant]

I'm betting that Pavs gets the first goal for SJ.

 

[LadyStanley]

Just 'cause they have less than 50 NHL deals does not mean they aren't spending less in player salaries.

There are more guys this year than in the past with AHL deals (who would have been on two-way deals previously).

 

[HipCzech]

HB,
I do think Plattner pulled in the purse strings on DW. I don't think it was accidental that they have lesser number on their 50 man roster or that they are farther from the cap. I do think Plattner will loosen up but only if DW is certain the team will improve. That may be part of the conversation, "if you want the money, it is your job if the results aren't there." In terms of trades, that may mean go big or go home.

I do think that DW effectively knows that a finish that nets him a #12-#22 pick is not terribly productive. Either the team is good enough to get a lower pick than #22 or you really need to finish lower than just outside the playoffs.


To rebuild on the fly, you have to bank on youth not just replacing the lost production of declining players but improving on it if you expect to do better in the standings or the playoffs. Just replacing what is lost is a net of ZERO. For example if Marleau plus Nieto was 105 pts last year, you need them to total 115 pts or better this year, even if Marleau loses 5 pts on his total. That is incredibly hard to do.

Exactly, we'll likely be treading water until Thornton is traded because he's a really good regular season player and prevents us from finishing lower to draft higher. Same with Marleau, but like HB said, Marleau will be harder to persuade to waive. Maybe as a rental in the last year of his contract if we're out of the playoffs. I think DW is hoping another year like 2002 happens and we end up positioned with high picks like in 2003 and this time draft better than Michalek/Bernier/Hennessy.

Or like Easy says, our young players turn into better players than Thornton and Marleau. Because the UFA market isn't getting any better.

 

[grizcoach]

Shark Article

I came across this article but didn't see a link posted in here so:

http://grantland.com/features/san-jose-sharks-nhl-los-angeles-kings/

 

[sr228]

I came across this article but didn't see a link posted in here so:

http://grantland.com/features/san-jose-sharks-nhl-los-angeles-kings/

I read that this morning, I love Katie Baker! She paints such a good picture with her writing.

 

[Nolan11]

Do we have a captain?

I nominate Owen Nolan.

Call the Doctor, grab the tartus, go back to 1999 and kdnap Nolan. Drop that man on this team, WHAM. Would be nice. Seconded. Nolan for C.