2014 NHL Re-Draft

[4thline]

I'd maybe put him top 5, but I don't know why some leafs fans freak out when you say he isn't a top 3 pick in this draft

Toronto did exactly what you want to happen in a draft....... Meaning they found a player who should be drafted higher than the position they chose him in.

No problem with him not being top 3, problem with the idea of him top 3 laughed off.

That's the bottom line, in a hypothetical world where Willie is a late born 95 like SR and Drai and goes into the draft with an 18 year old season as a ppg SHL 1C and a 10 point wjc's there's no chance in hell he's on the board at 8. The same could be said with Detroit and Larkin.

 

[JetsFan815]

Really slowed down when Hall slowed down. As pointed out, his splits are interesting.

Last year: .24ppg
Pre All star game: .93ppg
Post all star game: .44ppg

Also factor in that both Reinhart and Draisaitl are late birthdays, giving them a leg up on the early birthday's and in particular Bennett, Virtanen, Ehlers, Fabbri, and McCann.

As you continue to diminish Draisaitl accomplishments, the same can be done for Nylander:

Nylander put up nearly 39% of his points against Calgary and Buffallo. Two bottom feeders

Nylander's PPG splits:

Against Calgary/Buffalo: 1.25 PPG
Against non-Cal/Buf teams: .44 PPG

 

[93LEAFS]

thanks for the link. I had Nylander ranked anywhere from 6 to 10 along with a group of players just below the top tier guys so he went about where I expected, maybe just a bit lower.
As for Drai's production slipping, that would be expected for most young prospects. We may have seen the same with Nylander had he played in the NHL longer and been subject to the wear and tear of a full NHL schedule.
That's why I like to look at the whole season for new prospects who have never played a full season.
We'll get a much better read on Nylander next year. As for Drai, I've seen enough to put him in the group just below Ekblad. Over 50 points for what is his first full season is exceptional production. Especially on an Oiler's team that struggled all year.

Draisaitl's advanced numbers finished around where they should of, so he is probably a 50 point player going forward. I would point out Draisaitl is among the oldest in the draft class, along with Reinhart. I do feel that having a 19 year old CHL year gave him a leg up on Ehlers, Bennett and Fabbri.

Draisaitl looks good, but I felt his number's befitted from Taylor Hall being on a hot streak then cooled down with Hall. Prior to Draisaitl's arrival Hall had 8 points in 10 games, and he finished the year with 65 points in 82 games (a .79 pace). While I think Draisaitl contributed to Hall's success, I feel he was somewhat dependent on him. That extreamly impressive stretch in Late October til January, just coincided with Hall's hottest run of the year.

 

[93LEAFS]

As you continue to diminish Draisaitl accomplishments, the same can be done for Nylander:

Nylander put up nearly 39% of his points against Calgary and Buffallo. Two bottom feeders

Nylander's PPG splits:

Against Calgary/Buffalo: 1.25 PPG
Against non-Cal/Buf teams: .44 PPG

And got 54% of his points vs playoff teams. But I guess this thread has to be about Nylander eh? I'm just pointing out some of my concerns with his season, but I guess a Leafs fan can't discuss other players without Nylander or Marner being brought up as a retort.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Draisaitl's advanced numbers finished around where they should of, so he is probably a 50 point player going forward. I would point out Draisaitl is among the oldest in the draft class, along with Reinhart. I do feel that having a 19 year old CHL year gave him a leg up on Ehlers, Bennett and Fabbri.

Draisaitl looks good, but I felt his number's befitted from Taylor Hall being on a hot streak then cooled down with Hall. Prior to Draisaitl's arrival Hall had 8 points in 10 games, and he finished the year with 65 points in 82 games (a .79 pace). While I think Draisaitl contributed to Hall's success, I feel he was somewhat dependent on him. That extreamly impressive stretch in Late October til January, just coincided with Hall's hottest run of the year.

I disagree. I see a great deal of Draisaitl and I think he has much higher potential than 50 points going forward. He was as much responsible for Hall's points as vice versa. And what gave him the leg up over some of the other guys is not his age but his strength and skill. He's got the complete package including elite playmaking skills that are just below Reinhart who, IMO, is the smartest and best playmaker in the draft.
If I had to project I'd have Ekblad, Reinhart and Draisaitl as the best three of this draft going forward and probably in that order. Then a group of another 5 or 6 who I can't really separate yet as they are too close to call.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

Funny how age difference is now used as an argument when comparing players drafted in the same year. I distantly remember the same people saying it doesn't matter with Rantanen and Nylander?

Also it's still questionable to compare 22 games to 70+ games. Production tends to regress. I don't see why Nylander could magically dodge that. What Draisaitl was able to do this year is still far more impressive than what Nylander has done.

 

[JetsFan815]

And got 54% of his points vs playoff teams. But I guess this thread has to be about Nylander eh? I'm just pointing out some of my concerns with his season, but I guess a Leafs fan can't discuss other players without Nylander or Marner being brought up as a retort.

I'm showing that you can use arbitrarily chosen splits to put down any player in the league like you were trying to do with Draisaitl, esp when you are reducing the sample size in one of the splits that you are trying to use as evidence to make your point. What is special about the All Star game? Why draw a line there? Perhaps the Drai's point totals before and after the All Star game are just a part and parcel of the natural variance of point distribution?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Funny how age difference is now used as an argument when comparing players drafted in the same year. I distantly remember the same people saying it doesn't matter with Rantanen and Nylander?

Also it's still questionable to compare 22 games to 70+ games. Production tends to regress. I don't see why Nylander could magically dodge that. What Draisaitl was able to do this year is still far more impressive than what Nylander has done.

I agree with that. I don't people realize just how hard it is to put up those numbers in a players' first full year. That's darn impressive.
The Oilers have a good one!

 

[93LEAFS]

I disagree. I see a great deal of Draisaitl and I think he has much higher potential than 50 points going forward. He was as much responsible for Hall's points as vice versa. And what gave him the leg up over some of the other guys is not his age but his strength and skill. He's got the complete package including elite playmaking skills that are just below Reinhart who, IMO, is the smartest and best playmaker in the draft.
If I had to project I'd have Ekblad, Reinhart and Draisaitl as the best three of this draft going forward and probably in that order. Then a group of another 5 or 6 who I can't really separate yet as they are too close to call.

Was misstated, I think he is clearly a 50 point player with more potential going forward. What I was saying was, the numbers don't show him due for regression, like they did for RNH and Yak's rookie years.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Was misstated, I think he is clearly a 50 point player with more potential going forward. What I was saying was, the numbers don't show him due for regression, like they did for RNH and Yak's rookie years.

Got you. That make sense.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm showing that you can use arbitrarily chosen splits to put down any player in the league like you were trying to do with Draisaitl, esp when you are reducing the sample size in one of the splits you are trying to use as evidence to make your point. What is special about the All Star game? Why draw a line there? Perhaps the Drai's point totals before and after the All Star game are just a part and parcel of the natural variance of point distribution?

Because its the easy to track the splits for, but I could just as easily use Jan 1st and it would be just as telling. I used it to point out my belief that I view his stats as heavily dependent on Taylor Hall being on a hot streak. It leads me to question what type of player he actually is.

 

[93LEAFS]

Funny how age difference is now used as an argument when comparing players drafted in the same year. I distantly remember the same people saying it doesn't matter with Rantanen and Nylander?

Also it's still questionable to compare 22 games to 70+ games. Production tends to regress. I don't see why Nylander could magically dodge that. What Draisaitl was able to do this year is still far more impressive than what Nylander has done.

I was using the age thing in regards to the CHL players. I think its impact on European players who can easily be moved up and down age groups is much harder to figure out. I don't think Draisaitl or Reinhart had an advantage over guys like Nylander, but I do think it is an advantage over Bennett, Ehlers and Fabbri.

 

[4thline]

Funny how age difference is now used as an argument when comparing players drafted in the same year. I distantly remember the same people saying it doesn't matter with Rantanen and Nylander?

Also it's still questionable to compare 22 games to 70+ games. Production tends to regress. I don't see why Nylander could magically dodge that. What Draisaitl was able to do this year is still far more impressive than what Nylander has done.

You realize this is the just the opposite side to the same consistently applied (but contested) coin right? That birth year trumps draft year?

And it's not that "production tends to regress" as in universally downward, it's "production tends to regress to the mean" as in hot/cold streaks generally end. And nothing really points to Nylander's production being super "hot". Not a freakishly high amount of shots, actually a slightly low oish%. If anything I'd expect less goals and more assists from him next year, assuming the same kind of usage.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Because its the easy to track the splits for, but I could just as easily use Jan 1st and it would be just as telling. I used it to point out my belief that I view his stats as heavily dependent on Taylor Hall being on a hot streak. It leads me to question what type of player he actually is.

Well, one thing you're overlooking is the offensively inept state of the Oilers D.

A healthy Klefbom, continued progression from Davidson and Nurse, and a couple better defencemen with some offensive capabilities would do our forwards wonders.

I figured this stat out and have posted it elsewhere: Erik Karlsson posted more assists on Mike Hoffman's goals than all the Oiler defencemen combined assisted on Hall's.

Fourier's posted the stats in other threads but Hall/Draisaitl/McDavid got almost zero help from the defence with their goals.

I wouldn't put 75 points as out of the question at all for Draisaitl.

 

[QuietContrarian]

I agree with that. I don't people realize just how hard it is to put up those numbers in a players' first full year. That's darn impressive.
The Oilers have a good one!

I swear I was so tough on Drai, for a long time. Never really saw what people saw in him. Found him sloppy and slow.

Boy am I eating crow

As ive written before, he has really cleaned up his skating, almost to the point where its enjoyable to look at.

I have a thing for big skaters that make it look easy.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I swear I was so tough on Drai, for a long time. Never really saw what people saw in him. Found him sloppy and slow.

Boy am I eating crow

As ive written before, he has really cleaned up his skating, almost to the point where its enjoyable to look at.

I have a thing for big skaters that make it look easy.

So do I.
And I'm eating crow too. The first time up I wondered what the big deal was with him. Looked painfully slow.
In fact, I'm eating crow on both him and Gaudreau.

 

[QuietContrarian]

So do I.
And I'm eating crow too. The first time up I wondered what the big deal was with him. Looked painfully slow.
In fact, I'm eating crow on both him and Gaudreau.

You and me both... Was pretty low on Gaudreau aswell, and just look at that kid flyyyy.

My god is he a joy too watch!

We can't be right every time

Well, one thing you're overlooking is the offensively inept state of the Oilers D.

A healthy Klefbom, continued progression from Davidson and Nurse, and a couple better defencemen with some offensive capabilities would do our forwards wonders.

I figured this stat out and have posted it elsewhere: Erik Karlsson posted more assists on Mike Hoffman's goals than all the Oiler defencemen combined assisted on Hall's.

Fourier's posted the stats in other threads but Hall/Draisaitl/McDavid got almost zero help from the defence with their goals.

I wouldn't put 75 points as out of the question at all for Draisaitl.

Not at all, could easily see him get 75pts. And if he has a really good year even 80.

 

[heretik27]

And got 54% of his points vs playoff teams. But I guess this thread has to be about Nylander eh? I'm just pointing out some of my concerns with his season, but I guess a Leafs fan can't discuss other players without Nylander or Marner being brought up as a retort.

Yea, but those playoff teams suck
13 total points in 22 games played
3 vs Philly (0-3 vs Caps)
1 vs Florida (1-2 vs Isles)
2 vs Detroit (1-3 vs Tampa)
3 vs Calgary
2 vs Buffalo
1 vs Isles
1 vs Ottawa

Multi-pointed vs teams that were either bottom of the league or barely squeaked into the east playoffs. It's easy to deconstruct a players performance as others have mentioned. Leaf fans themselves were harping on Nylander in their GDT's for being too 'passive' at times and not engaged enough in the play yet. If all you do is look at point totals overall his production looks fine, but getting the bulk of his points in 4 of 22 games shows he's capable of being a impact player, but isn't quite there yet. It's not like he was getting 10 minutes a night either, only in 2 games did he get less than 15 minutes and one of those was 14:55.

Let's come off the Nylander hype train just a tad and give him some time to develop at the NHL level along with his teammates. Proclaiming him top 3 even at this point isn't so much logical as it is emotional. Other players are more developed currently and that's all there is to it. If this thread was 'predict who's better 10 years from now' then I could understand players from all areas of the draft being hyped, but it's not.

 

[BWDude]

Yea, but those playoff teams suck
13 total points in 22 games played
3 vs Philly (0-3 vs Caps)
1 vs Florida (1-2 vs Isles)
2 vs Detroit (1-3 vs Tampa)
3 vs Calgary
2 vs Buffalo
1 vs Isles
1 vs Ottawa

Multi-pointed vs teams that were either bottom of the league or barely squeaked into the east playoffs. It's easy to deconstruct a players performance as others have mentioned. Leaf fans themselves were harping on Nylander in their GDT's for being too 'passive' at times and not engaged enough in the play yet. If all you do is look at point totals overall his production looks fine, but getting the bulk of his points in 4 of 22 games shows he's capable of being a impact player, but isn't quite there yet. It's not like he was getting 10 minutes a night either, only in 2 games did he get less than 15 minutes and one of those was 14:55.

Let's come off the Nylander hype train just a tad and give him some time to develop at the NHL level along with his teammates. Proclaiming him top 3 even at this point isn't so much logical as it is emotional. Other players are more developed currently and that's all there is to it. If this thread was 'predict who's better 10 years from now' then I could understand players from all areas of the draft being hyped, but it's not.

The guy who did that CLEARLY said 10 years later, this is how I see it. I literally don't see 1 fan who proclaims he's in the top 3 right now, just a bunch of bias posters responding to that one guy. Its dumb.

 

[heretik27]

The guy who did that CLEARLY said 10 years later, this is how I see it. I literally don't see 1 fan who proclaims he's in the top 3 right now, just a bunch of bias posters responding to that one guy. Its dumb.

Did all of the Leaf posters who had Nylander in the top 3 also state they were forecasting 10 years into the future? I mentioned 10 years because of the one post that DID use that as their reasoning for putting him 1st.

 

[BWDude]

Did all of the Leaf posters who had Nylander in the top 3 also state they were forecasting 10 years into the future? I mentioned 10 years because of the one post that DID use that as their reasoning for putting him 1st.

Ah I had to scroll back to 33 to find the first Leaf homers that said that, and one of them admitted that they were homers. Bottom line is, even though it's not logical- the majority in this thread isn't either, you have your reasons which I find could also apply to the majority of these forwards that were drafted, no big deal.

 

[93LEAFS]

Well, one thing you're overlooking is the offensively inept state of the Oilers D.

A healthy Klefbom, continued progression from Davidson and Nurse, and a couple better defencemen with some offensive capabilities would do our forwards wonders.

I figured this stat out and have posted it elsewhere: Erik Karlsson posted more assists on Mike Hoffman's goals than all the Oiler defencemen combined assisted on Hall's.

Fourier's posted the stats in other threads but Hall/Draisaitl/McDavid got almost zero help from the defence with their goals.

I wouldn't put 75 points as out of the question at all for Draisaitl.

Didn't seem to hurt McDavid and Eberle too much in the second half like it did Hall and Drai.

 

[MPStoEberletoHall*]

Didn't seem to hurt McDavid and Eberle too much in the second half like it did Hall and Drai.

McDavid is a top 5 forward in the NHL, it's a little different.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Didn't seem to hurt McDavid and Eberle too much in the second half like it did Hall and Drai.

Looking at it another way, what Drai did in the absence of McDavid was pretty impressive. You'd expect his production to tail off a bit once McDavid returned and got more minutes and PP time.

 

[93LEAFS]

Looking at it another way, what Drai did in the absence of McDavid was pretty impressive. You'd expect his production to tail off a bit once McDavid returned and got more minutes and PP time.

He wasn't really scoring on the PP (don't think he was getting much PP1 time), while his minutes went down a bit in the 2nd half, I think RNH had most of the minutes, McDavid got when he returned. All 3 were not up or healthy at the same time for very long. Basically a couple games in early November and a few at the end of the year where RNH was relegated to 3rd line duty.