Speculation: 2013-2014 Hurricanes Trade Talk Part 2

[Buenos Necas]

I wouldn't be shocked if they kept him until after the Olympics and immediately hired Kevin Dineen.

That's actually what something I was thinking about last night, replacing Muller with Dineen. I don't think a coaching change is off the table at all, McKenzie hinted at it just a few weeks ago. Rutherford is fully aware that we need to make the playoffs now, and he's assembled a team that in his mind is ready to compete. For better or worse, that's how JR views our current group of guys, and if they're constantly underachieving it's only a matter of time before Muller takes the blame. We need to capitalize on the Metro being so awful this year, and if JR is unable to make a significant trade because he signed some bad contracts, a coaching change may be his way to provide a spark for the team.

 

[Lazyking]

So a few days ago, people were commenting how the Canes were only 1 point out of a playoff spot. After Philly's win last night, the Canes are now 5 points out of a playoff spot with 4 teams in front of them (for 3rd place) and have won 2 games out of their last 10. A couple more losses and I have to think Rutherford is at least thinking about a coaching change.

Trading the likes of Gleason and Westgarth will have very little impact on the team (short term).

No but its good to get rid of dead weight. honestly, a few more losses and the season is pretty much over.. its not like we're going to get a good interim coach. I think the core sucks.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Since this has become a "How would you improve this team thread", I think we can continue the discussion here (rather than multiple GDT's).

You are totally hung up on points, which just doesn't make sense.

Points win hockey games. They're kind of important.

Yes, we get very little production from our third and fourth lines. But outside of a very few teams, nobody gets a lot of production out of their bottom 6.

Columbus has Calvert producing at a 38 point pace; Anisimov at a 40 point pace; Letestu at a 30 point pace and Mackenzie at a 29 point pace. Source for ice time.

The Devils have Ryder producing at a 37 point pace and Damien Brunner at a 32 point pace. Source.

The Islanders have a terrible bottom 6, with no one better than 16 points (lol). They're also much worse than us.

--NOTE: I've done the research for this over several days, and at this precise moment, behindthenet is down. So I'm switching sources.

The Rangers have Carl Hagelin producing at a 40 point pace while playing roughly 13.5 minutes a night.. They have Beniot Pouliot producing at a 28 point pace while playing 12 minutes a night..

The Flyers have Matt Read producing at a 41 point pace; Sean Couturier at a 36 point pace and Wayne Simmonds for 31 ES points in 12 ES minutes a game.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1571339

The Pens have Brandon Sutter on pace for 29 points; Jussi Jokinen on pace for 51 points in 12.5 ES minutes a game, and Chris Conner on pace for 22 points.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1571327

The Caps have Jason Chimera on pace for 40 points; Martin Erat on pace for 33 points, and Joel Ward on pace for 47 points.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1570539

Every team in the Metro division has better depth than we do, outside of arguably the Islanders. Getting production from your bottom 6 is not a phenomenon restricting to a "handful" of teams. Those 6, plus the ones that I have already researched- Colorado, Anaheim, Chicago, San Jose, Montreal, Winnipeg- make up for more than a 3rd of the League. So far, most of the teams that I have looked at have some form of bottom 6 scoring, even if it is two or three players producing at 30+ point pace. That's far and away MUCH better than what we have, which is 3 guys producing at a 20+ point pace.

The thing that matters is playing better than the other guys. Riley Nash has 4-6-10 in 35 games. Is that great? No. Is it horrible? Not really. But he's plus-1 for the season on a team that's worse than minus-20. Dvorak has 3-3-6 in 33 games. Again, not great. But he's plus-6. Pat Dwyer is also 4-6-10 in 36 games, and plus-3. So even though these guys don't score a whole lot, THEY SCORE MORE THAN THE GUYS THEY'RE PLAYING AGAINST.

You're using caps when Riley Nash is all of +1 on the year.

Dwyer is a plus because he is paired with the best defensive center in the League, and because our system isn't too demanding defensively on wingers.

Meanwhile, Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner are at the top of the scoring chart, but Staal is minus-17 and Skinner is minus-8. I know plus/minus is far from perfect, but my point is that rating players by points misses the big picture of winning hockey games. The idea is to score more goals than the other guys, not to score tons of goals.

This is also a problem. I'm not denying that.

However, having an offensively useless bottom 6 is also a problem, and the worst possible positive +/- on one player isn't going to change that. Never mind the inherent problems with the stat in the first place.

Our top-6 needs to play better. But we need a bottom 6 that can play in any way, shape, or form. Nash, Dvorak, Bowman, Dwyer, Tlusty (as he is right now) is not going to get it done.


Right now, we have 5 forwards I'm comfortable with playing in the top 6 (Staal, Staal, Semin, Skinner, Gerbe) and 3 defenders I'm comfortable playing in the top 4 (Faulk, Sekera, Hainsey). We have two that are on the cusp of being added to that group (Tlusty and Bellemore).

We're not that far away. I would say 1-2 more top excellent wingers (guys that actually produce) and 1 more top 4 defenseman can solidify our core and put us in the range where we don't need a 3 point night from E. Staal, Skinner or Semin to win every single game. Forwards I would target are David Legwand from Nashville and Brad Boyes from Florida.

 

[Erdinger]

Highway To Cap Hell you just might have the best handle on HF.

 

[TheOllieC]

Firing Muller isn't going to do anything. JR really is clueless if that's the only change he brings about any time soon.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I like how you sometimes differentiate points and even strength points for some guys (like Simmonds), but not for others (like Jokinen).

It wouldn't happen to be because the reason Jokinen is on a 50 point pace despite playing bottom 6 even strength minutes is because he also gets hefty PP time per game and most of those 50+ points are coming from the PP and not his even strength ice time, would it. As for some of the others (Columbus and New Jersey, specifically), without looking it up, I'm guessing it's because they are not top-heavy. They don't have those star forwards you want getting 20 minutes a night, so I'm assuming their ice time is much more evenly distributed across the board. But again, this is all guesswork on my part. Wouldn't be surprised to find it all completely wrong.

As for our bottom 6, the only issue I have is the 3rd line. Dvorak-Malhotra-random AHL plug is a solid 4th line. Two veterans that know their role and can play it well, and a younger player that is hopefully doing everything in their power to sponge knowledge out of those two veterans.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Chip just tweeted that Gleason was not on the ice for the warmup. Hmmm.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

Chip just tweeted that Gleason was not on the ice for the warmup. Hmmm.

And Malhotra wearing the "A" again. Might be permanent.

 

[Zezima]

And Malhotra wearing the "A" again. Might be permanent.

Off topic but it should be Faulk. It feels off balanced having three forward captains and no defensive representation.

 

[TheOllieC]

Off topic but it should be Faulk. It feels off balanced having three forward captains and no defensive representation.

Agreed.

Gleason for Liles is probably more likely than Gleason+ for MDZ I assume, but I've seen people on Twitter talking about both possibilities.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

Hearing Gleason for Liles is a done deal.

Wonder if there are other pieces?

Hoping Khudobin is not being traded, wold rather keep him than Peters.

 

[Sasha Cares]

so much for cam having ANY value

 

[TheOllieC]

so much for cam having ANY value

Yeah so much for that.

...

 

[DaveG]

Hearing Gleason for Liles is a done deal.

Wonder if there are other pieces?

Hoping Khudobin is not being traded, wold rather keep him than Peters.

We're close, as in possibly Ray Whitney to LA close. Of course, it's the same hang-up as the Whitney to LA deal was, minus the re-signing with the new team stuff.

 

[Wolfpuck]

So we're trading a guy to a team he doesn't want to go to for a guy who doesn't want to come here?

 

[Sasha Cares]

Yeah so much for that.

...

So us scoring 5 goals and him giving up the momentum busting 4th goal to them some reinstated his value how?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

So us scoring 5 goals and him giving up the momentum busting 4th goal to them some reinstated his value how?

The fact that you can watch that game and conclude Ward is the issue is mind boggling.

 

[rocky7]

Off topic but it should be Faulk. It feels off balanced having three forward captains and no defensive representation.

Hainsey should get it not Faulk, if they trade Gleason. if Hainsey moves on, deal with that then.

 

[Sasha Cares]

Ward is absolutely AN issue. If you can't see it, you don't want to. There are other issues but Cam is not even remotely carrying the team when we need him to. I've always been a huge defender of Cam. But he's regressed from arguing if he's a top 7-10 G to being a very average G that makes incredible saves and allows incredibly soft goals that doesn't seem to make the key save any more.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Rewatch the first period and tell me again why Ward was the issue tonight. Was it the shorthanded breakaways (and that's plural) he stopped? Or the general defensive gaffes he was subjected to?

The game could have easily gotten out of hand in the first period. It didn't, largely because of Ward. You want to focus on the 4th goal, where he may have been prevented from making a save in the first place (either by the Montreal player or by Faulk), that's your prerogative. But frankly, I'd say the 3 goals against where the Montreal players were left all alone in front were a bigger issue tonight.

There have been games where Ward was an issue. Tonight wasn't one.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I watched about 20 minutes total tonight, and saw two or three breakaways, a 2 on 1 where Cam stoned the guy, and a save on Moen when he cut to the net and redirected a pass across. Other teams just don't give up these kinds of chances. Well, good teams anyway.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Points win hockey games. They're kind of important.

No, they don't. Scoring more goals than the other team wins hockey games. Whether it's 1-0 or 5-4, the object of the game is to have more goals than the opponent. Ottawa is No. 8 in the league with 118 goals, but they've allowed 135 and they're out of the playoffs. I'm sure they have a bunch of guys producing at a nice pace, but that and $4.50 will get them a Frappuccino at Starbucks.

Columbus has Calvert producing at a 38 point pace; Anisimov at a 40 point pace; Letestu at a 30 point pace and Mackenzie at a 29 point pace. Source for ice time.

... (snipped a bunch of similarly irrelevant information)

I don't know why you don't get this, and I'm going to stop trying after this post. You simply cannot judge a third or fourth line player by how many points he scores. Letestu, mentioned above, is a minus-5. SO WHAT if he's scoring at a better pace than Riley Nash *if the other guys score more goals when he's on the ice than Columbus does*? Seriously, what is so complicated about this? A third or fourth line that scores more, but allows even more, is NOT better than what we have.

Irrelevant note: Letestu has all of ONE goal this season and probably a whole bunch of his 14 assists are secondary assists, but I'm sure that makes him a lot better than our guys anyhow, minus-5 or not.

Right now, we have 5 forwards I'm comfortable with playing in the top 6 (Staal, Staal, Semin, Skinner, Gerbe) and 3 defenders I'm comfortable playing in the top 4 (Faulk, Sekera, Hainsey). We have two that are on the cusp of being added to that group (Tlusty and Bellemore).

I'm glad you feel comfortable penciling in those names, but hockey games aren't played on paper. Yes, a top six that includes the Staals, Semin, Skinner, Gerbe and Tlusty *looks* fine, but they are not playing well and they are allowing *a lot* more goals than they are scoring.

IMO, we will get *much* better when the guys you feel so comfortable with start playing better, than we will by getting a few more points out of our depth guys. I mean seriously, we're not a third-line center away from fixing this mess. We're a third-line center *plus* our best guys getting their heads out of their collective a$$e$ and working harder away from fixing this mess.

 

[What the Faulk]

Ward hasn't been playing well, but he was literally the only positive from the first 40, aside from maybe Malhotra. He gave them a chance to win. That's all you can ask.

Faulk isn't ready for the "A" y et. Malholtra is clearly a perfect candidate, but if you must go defense (and I don't think that's necessary), then Hainsey is a solid second choice.

 

[rocky7]

nvm.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I like how you sometimes differentiate points and even strength points for some guys (like Simmonds), but not for others (like Jokinen).

Rereading it, Simmonds is the only guy I bothered to differentiate between ES points and points in general.

If Riley Nash were producing on the PP what Jokinen does in Pittsburgh, I wouldn't be sitting here arguing that he's useless.

As for some of the others (Columbus and New Jersey, specifically), without looking it up, I'm guessing it's because they are not top-heavy. They don't have those star forwards you want getting 20 minutes a night, so I'm assuming their ice time is much more evenly distributed across the board. But again, this is all guesswork on my part. Wouldn't be surprised to find it all completely wrong.

What about Anaheim, Chicago or Colorado? Are they not top heavy?

As for our bottom 6, the only issue I have is the 3rd line. Dvorak-Malhotra-random AHL plug is a solid 4th line. Two veterans that know their role and can play it well, and a younger player that is hopefully doing everything in their power to sponge knowledge out of those two veterans.

Agree.

No, they don't. Scoring more goals than the other team wins hockey games. Whether it's 1-0 or 5-4, the object of the game is to have more goals than the opponent. Ottawa is No. 8 in the league with 118 goals, but they've allowed 135 and they're out of the playoffs. I'm sure they have a bunch of guys producing at a nice pace, but that and $4.50 will get them a Frappuccino at Starbucks.

You can have guys that produce offensively AND outplay their competition (in fact, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that they're somewhat related).

I don't know why you don't get this, and I'm going to stop trying after this post. You simply cannot judge a third or fourth line player by how many points he scores. Letestu, mentioned above, is a minus-5. SO WHAT if he's scoring at a better pace than Riley Nash *if the other guys score more goals when he's on the ice than Columbus does*? Seriously, what is so complicated about this? A third or fourth line that scores more, but allows even more, is NOT better than what we have.

You're using plus-minus, quite possibly the worst stat known to hockey kind, to try and justify why it's alright that Riley Nash and Patrick Dwyer are useless offensive players.

We CAN have players who have a positive +/- AND actually contribute offensively beyond a 20 point pace.

BTW, did you know that Riley Nash, Patrick Dwyer, Jiri Tlusty, Radek Dvorak, Manny Malhotra and Drayson Bowman all get outshot when they are on the ice by the opposition? I guess they're the ones getting outplayed.

IMO, we will get *much* better when the guys you feel so comfortable with start playing better, than we will by getting a few more points out of our depth guys. I mean seriously, we're not a third-line center away from fixing this mess. We're a third-line center *plus* our best guys getting their heads out of their collective a$$e$ and working harder away from fixing this mess.

No ****.

But getting a better 3rd line center + a better 3rd line winger= a 3rd line that will contribute offensively, unlike the one that we have right now.

That means that Eric Staal and friends don't have to score 4+ goals every night for us to win- which, with the way our roster is currently configured (and our goaltending play), is a necessity.

If you look at every elite team in the League, they have depth coming out of the wazoo. Literally the only team that I have found that is elite and does not have good top-9 forward depth is Pittsburgh, and they get away with it because they have the best two ****ing players in the world.

But since I'm proactive, I believe that trying to acquire players who are superior to the ones we have now is a better long term solution than Kirk Muller shouting at Eric Staal to play better or whatever.