GDT: 2/29/24 - 7:00PM EDT - Buffalo vs Tampa Bay

[Hockeyville USA]

I don't think it's all that fair to criticize that regime for drafting. Other things, sure, but their drafting was the major reason we won two cups. Every team missed on the players you're talking about, not just us. This is all relative. Not a single team drafted better than we did during that era. They drafted two, possibly three, Hall of Famers in under a decade.

The issue is we had SO much good talent to choose from, that when it came time to pay the best of it, we didn't have enough money for the rest of it. Which is pretty much what the salary cap is designed to do.

If you draft well every single year, you're then able to replace the players you lose due to the cap crunch with cheap ELCs who are productive. The NFL model of plug and play. When you don't draft well enough, you're forced to sign the Sheary types of the world in UFA, many of whom don't perform to the contract level.

If they had drafted DeBrincat, they have a natural Johnson replacement and are able to trade Johnson when he was an asset, not an anchor, or just let Johnson walk in UFA, for example.

 

[Bartleby]

Production models exist based on prior data from previous drafts, those need to be taken into consideration when drafting players. Eye test and interviews only go so far.

First of all you're supposing that such information hasn't been used in the past and second of all I don't care what models there are, none of them are going to tell you with precision, or anything close to it when it comes to human beings, what will happen in the future.

Do I really need to list the biggest draft busts in history that were slam dunk sure things before they were drafted?

 

[DFC]

If you draft well every single year, you're then able to replace the players you lose due to the cap crunch with cheap ELCs who are productive. The NFL model of plug and play. When you don't draft well enough, you're forced to sign the Sheary types of the world in UFA, many of whom don't perform to the contract level.

If they had drafted DeBrincat, they have a natural Johnson replacement and are able to trade Johnson when he was an asset, not an anchor, or just let Johnson walk in UFA, for example.

Sure. But again, how fair of a criticism is this when you're asking for perfection? No team in the league drafted as well as we did during that stretch. As evidenced by a decade-long contender, three SCFs (four, in all), and two cups. Yes, there were players we missed out on-- we also picked up Brayden Point in the 3rd round, trading up to get him. We got Nikita Kucherov (did every team in the league draft poorly because they missed out on Kucherov?). Ondrej Palat. Cirelli. Vasilevskiy.

No other team drafted as well as us. Nobody else was as regularly grabbing impact players out of the middle rounds. So, if we drafted poorly, they must have all been terrible.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Sure. But again, how fair of a criticism is this when you're asking for perfection? No team in the league drafted as well as we did during that stretch. As evidenced by a decade-long contender, three SCFs (four, in all), and two cups. Yes, there were players we missed out on-- we also picked up Brayden Point in the 3rd round, trading up to get him. We got Nikita Kucherov (did every team in the league draft poorly because they missed out on Kucherov?). Ondrej Palat. Cirelli. Vasilevskiy.

No other team drafted as well as us. Nobody else was as regularly grabbing impact players out of the middle rounds. So, if we drafted poorly, they must have all been terrible.

You need to draft well regardless of what stage of build you're in. So when you trade so many picks away, it makes harder to do that. But you're still expected to draft players who get games & make at least a solid level impact in the NHL out of top 3 round picks. 4th-7th round, if you hit, awesome, but if you don't, that's generally how it goes.

Notice I don't get very mad about the Chris Paquette and Ryan Zuhlsdorf picks, those are much later and you're generally not gonna get NHLers there. But even then, Paquette was a horrible pick considering he was an extremely low producer in the O in his DY, almost no chance at making the league unless he pops off, which is extremely unlikely based on his DY stats. I know I'm nitpicking, but as a draft enthusiast, I've studied these things way more so I tend to complain about it.

 

[DFC]

You need to draft well regardless of what stage of build you're in. So when you trade so many picks away, it makes harder to do that. But you're still expected to draft players who get games & make at least a solid level impact in the NHL out of top 3 round picks. 4th-7th round, if you hit, awesome, but if you don't, that's generally how it goes.

Notice I don't get very mad about the Chris Paquette and Ryan Zuhlsdorf picks, those are much later and you're generally not gonna get NHLers there. But even then, Paquette was a horrible pick considering he was an extremely low producer in the O in his DY, almost no chance at making the league unless he pops off, which is extremely unlikely based on his DY stats. I know I'm nitpicking, but as a draft enthusiast, I've studied these things way more so I tend to complain about it.

But you're measuring this against nothing but perfection, rather than against how the rest of the league drafted during those years. We, bar none, had the best draft record in the league during that era, and that was despite rarely having high picks, and missing on them when we did. We made up for it in the middle rounds to the point that we drafted better than even teams who did draft well in the 1st.

I just don't think it's a fair criticism when you're expecting us to not just be the best drafting team in the league, but to draft MILES better than #2.

More than that, the issues we are facing right now wouldn't go away even if we DID draft perfectly. The problem is there isn't enough money to go around, which would only be made worse by having even more talent than we did. I mean, that 2020 team wasn't even fair to the rest of the league.

 

[Bartleby]

You need to draft well regardless of what stage of build you're in. So when you trade so many picks away, it makes harder to do that. But you're still expected to draft players who get games & make at least a solid level impact in the NHL out of top 3 round picks. 4th-7th round, if you hit, awesome, but if you don't, that's generally how it goes.

Notice I don't get very mad about the Chris Paquette and Ryan Zuhlsdorf picks, those are much later and you're generally not gonna get NHLers there. But even then, Paquette was a horrible pick considering he was an extremely low producer in the O in his DY, almost no chance at making the league unless he pops off, which is extremely unlikely based on his DY stats. I know I'm nitpicking, but as a draft enthusiast, I've studied these things way more so I tend to complain about it.

Ok, so you study it more than the average guy, that is to your credit and speaks to your level of interest. I respect all that. But you will never have to put your ass on the line and actually make the move and then have to live with consequences and that is where the difference lies.

 

[Byrddog]

Finding gems after the first 15 picks is all about scouting. Something in the past that produced quality players. Currently those in the pipeline are unproven and likely would top out as 3rd liners. We just went thru the ABB saga a guy that just kills it until hitting the big league and just never makes the jump.

The two cups cost the team cap wise always does when a team does this well. The issue that started the cap problem was bridge contracts to Point, Cirelli, Sergi, Cernak if you not going to get a three year bridge then make the decision to lock a guy up long term and be done with it and move the others. Hindsight is alway an issue Point should have been paid without a bridge Aubrey Sergi too at the time but Cirelli and perhaps Cernak should have been cost controlled. That’s a hard pill to swallow because I really like Cernak . But for the team there are just so many guys you can pay 6 mil plus . Control that situation maybe you can keep some of the guys that it hurt to lose. The most critical trait a good gm has to have is math skills intertwined with long term vision. After a ELC if you’re going to pay premium you better damn sure be convinced that the player will not go stale.

 

[DFC]

Finding gems after the first 15 picks is all about scouting. Something in the past that produced quality players. Currently those in the pipeline are unproven and likely would top out as 3rd liners. We just went thru the ABB saga a guy that just kills it until hitting the big league and just never makes the jump.

The two cups cost the team cap wise always does when a team does this well. The issue that started the cap problem was bridge contracts to Point, Cirelli, Sergi, Cernak if you not going to get a three year bridge then make the decision to lock a guy up long term and be done with it and move the others. Hindsight is alway an issue Point should have been paid without a bridge Aubrey Sergi too at the time but Cirelli and perhaps Cernak should have been cost controlled. That’s a hard pill to swallow because I really like Cernak . But for the team there are just so many guys you can pay 6 mil plus . Control that situation maybe you can keep some of the guys that it hurt to lose. The most critical trait a good gm has to have is math skills intertwined with long term vision. After a ELC if you’re going to pay premium you better damn sure be convinced that the player will not go stale.

I think we will be lucky if we get actual, full-time 3rd liners out of the current pipeline. I also don't buy that drafting after the first 15 picks is all about scouting. We have seen a definite difference not just in our draft results, but in the type of players we draft in the JBB era. Brayden Point, for instance, was 100% an Yzerman pick, after he and Al Murray went on a scouting trip to see Morgan Reilly. (Craig Button told the story on TSN radio.)

A lot of the criticisms in general here are just wild. We are on the downslide after being the standard of the NHL for roughly a decade. The system is literally designed to ensure this happens.

 

[Bartleby]

I think we will be lucky if we get actual, full-time 3rd liners out of the current pipeline. I also don't buy that drafting after the first 15 picks is all about scouting. We have seen a definite difference not just in our draft results, but in the type of players we draft in the JBB era. Brayden Point, for instance, was 100% an Yzerman pick, after he and Al Murray went on a scouting trip to see Morgan Reilly. (Craig Button told the story on TSN radio.)

A lot of the criticisms in general here are just wild. We are on the downslide after being the standard of the NHL for roughly a decade. The system is literally designed to ensure this happens.

And it works!

 

[Hoek]

Any cups dropped I'd put more on Yzerman not making good deadline adds and signing washed up guys like Morrow and Kunitz instead. That's where JBB finally put his thumb on the scale. Unfortunately he overdid it with Jeannot.

 

[Rschmitz]

Any cups dropped I'd put more on Yzerman not making good deadline adds and signing washed up guys like Morrow and Kunitz instead. That's where JBB finally put his thumb on the scale. Unfortunately he overdid it with Jeannot.

I think deadline deals are overrated. Who's the last guy we went out and got and he came in and was a stud? Eric Brewer?

 

[DFC]

I think deadline deals are overrated. Who's the last guy we went out and got and he came in and was a stud? Eric Brewer?

Agreed. Pretty much nobody fits in by the time you need them to. I mean, maybe David Savard by the 3rd or 4th round? I feel like hockey media doesn't like to talk about how rarely going "all in" works because it would kill their big ratings day if teams didn't do it.

Our deadline deals that have worked out best weren't rentals, and didn't begin to work out until after the first season. Namely McDonagh and Hagel.

 

[Byrddog]

I think we will be lucky if we get actual, full-time 3rd liners out of the current pipeline. I also don't buy that drafting after the first 15 picks is all about scouting. We have seen a definite difference not just in our draft results, but in the type of players we draft in the JBB era. Brayden Point, for instance, was 100% an Yzerman pick, after he and Al Murray went on a scouting trip to see Morgan Reilly. (Craig Button told the story on TSN radio.)

A lot of the criticisms in general here are just wild. We are on the downslide after being the standard of the NHL for roughly a decade. The system is literally designed to ensure this happens.

While I agree with your outlook on those in the system now and being the standard for a decade. This makes it even more important that scouting be to knotch. Shoot we even landed a couple undrafted guys thru the period . Across the whole league and the armature system young players value is simply overstated. The scouts are those that have to weed this stuff out and when they find low hanging fruit get the GM involved.

While what you say is 100% truth about the rise and fall of teams in the cap era in a perfect world well not even perfect a strategy can develop to replace higher paid guys with lessor contracts. I think that was what JBB did in going after Jeanott the mistake he made is the same one most GM’s make. The expectations that s player did not have s fluke year and could even perform better in their system. In Nashville Jeanott had average speed, here looks like he is skating in mud. That is why I did not like this move, but initially I wanted it to work . It was not long until my initial thoughts proved out. Jeanott has pretty good hands but 5x5 just can’t keep up with our guys. Could he be effective on the pp in the middle when he has time to get into position I think so but there are too many on trick guys on the roster now. The last time I looked they were averaging 3.38 gpg but giving up 3.6 or something close. Every area of the game needs help. It has to start in net whatever Vasy’s problem it needs solved . It is my opinion he needs to tweak his game due to limitations left from the surgery. He’s just a blink slower than he was and when he lets in two he becomes a head case causing more mistakes that land in the back of the net.

It has been a while since the Bolts went in to the last 1/4 of the season unsure of playoffs. Many here made the statement over the last few years that regular season is not important just get in and the magic can happen. Then there are series like the Columbus one and last years Leaf failure. Last year we had no push the last 1/4 really and it’s not looking good for this season.

 

[Hoek]

I think deadline deals are overrated. Who's the last guy we went out and got and he came in and was a stud? Eric Brewer?

I know they got extra time to gel because of the pandemic, but Coleman and Goodrow were basically deadline deals even if it a was a few days before the actual deadline (Goodrow might've been actual deadline?).

 

[Rschmitz]

I know they got extra time to gel because of the pandemic, but Coleman and Goodrow were basically deadline deals even if it a was a few days before the actual deadline (Goodrow might've been actual deadline?).

They were brilliant in the playoffs.

Before the postseason they were lousy. Coleman had one assist in 9 games with us, Goodrow had 2 assists in 8 games.

Whoever we trade for has to be good for us immediately unfortunately.