McKenzie: “More likely than not” that Hoffman gets traded this season

[KirkOut]

Everyone wants Kyrou and Thomas recently lol. I could see a deal around Kyrou but definitely not Thomas.

 

[Neiler]

I'll put my guess in and say the Kings get him for Kempe + Folin. Gives the Kings an unreal offense heading into the playoffs and it gives Ottawa a cheaper LW replacement with potential and a cheap right side defenseman... something they sorely lack.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Fabbri
Gunnarsson
Pick


Hoffman
Formenton

Ottawa gets cap relief and rolls the dice with Fabbri, gets a LHD partner for Karlsson, and a pick. Blues get an upgrade on Fabbri with term, and a worse version of Fabbri with little risk.

I’m still not sure I would do this deal, or that Armstrong would, given Fabbri’s upside and the likelihood that he would rather bet on his guy, but Formenton eases the loss of Fabbri moreso than would losing Fabbri in other ways. I still think that Hoffman won’t require a piece like a Fabbri going back, but this is an offer that makes me think.

 

[50 in 07]

Fabbri
Gunnarsson
Pick


Hoffman
Formenton

Atrocious offer. Hoffman is a consistent 25G 60P first line winger signed at a reasonable cap hit. That carries significant value, which this isn't.

1) Gunnarsson is literally of no use to Ottawa, who are overflowing with bottom pairing LHD. On top of that he's UFA. Useless throw in, and he's certainly not usurping Chabot as Karlsson's partner.

2) Fabbri, coming off major knee surgery for the 2nd time, is not enough on his own to be the centerpiece for Hoffman. He's a good young player, but it remains to be seen if he can get back to or exceed his previous best of 29 in 51 (ok production but not spectacular by any means).

3) You have Ottawa throwing in one of their better prospects too, which is laughable. Ottawa is a budget and potentially rebuilding team, so the last thing they're going to do is trade away promising young ELC talent. Especially when they're trading away BY FAR the best player.

 

[Leafs87]

I don’t understand Ottawa’s thinking. They make a trade for Duchene and then shop Hoffman after they start gaining chemistry. Seems like two polar opposite moves made as well one to compete one to rebuild

 

[Flukeshot]

Sens should just recoup the picks they gave up for Duchene.

 

[Emerica]

I could see a deal around Walman+Sobotka.

I couldn't. What a horrible trade

Me too. Walman + Sobotka.......+ Kyrou and Thomas for Hoffman.

Walman + Sobotka + Kyrou + Thomas for Hoffman.....+ Duchene.

Ahh.. Gotta love these threads.

 

[nickdawg95]

Reinhart + Nylander + Mccabe

For

Hoffman
Ceci

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Reinhart + Nylander + Mccabe

For

Hoffman
Ceci

Switch Mccabe with Guhle; and Dorion bites.
Hoffman shouldn't be going anywhere if Ottawa wants to contend with Karlsson...

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Atrocious offer. Hoffman is a consistent 25G 60P first line winger signed at a reasonable cap hit. That carries significant value, which this isn't.

1) Gunnarsson is literally of no use to Ottawa, who are overflowing with bottom pairing LHD. On top of that he's UFA. Useless throw in, and he's certainly not usurping Chabot as Karlsson's partner.

2) Fabbri, coming off major knee surgery for the 2nd time, is not enough on his own to be the centerpiece for Hoffman. He's a good young player, but it remains to be seen if he can get back to or exceed his previous best of 29 in 51 (ok production but not spectacular by any means).

3) You have Ottawa throwing in one of their better prospects too, which is laughable. Ottawa is a budget and potentially rebuilding team, so the last thing they're going to do is trade away promising young ELC talent. Especially when they're trading away BY FAR the best player.

Gunnarsson isn’t UFA - he has another year left and would be your #2 LHD if Chabot is put on the right. Since it’s imperative that OTT moves Phaneuf, Gunnarsson would not only be replacing Oduya as Karlsson’s partner, but he would also allow Chabot to play opposite Ceci if and when Phaneuf is traded. Chabot hasn’t been playing with Karlsson more than 20% of the time; Oduya and Claesson have been more consistently Karlsson’s partner.

Fabbri has risk, but he’s a huge salary saver. hicstorically, players like Hoffman usual return a player+pick+prospect, and the value of those pieces interchange based on the GM’s primary target. Since OTT needs young, cheap, current players to be competitive over the next two years, Fabbri would be the best non-futures guy you could acquire from the Blues. Since the Blues have been reported to be front-runners on Hoffman multiple times, I was building a package around him.

Oshie returned Brouwer+Copley+3rd as a younger, two-way, 60pt player at a similar (less) cap hit with two full years remaining on his deal. Gunnarsson/Sobotka+Fabbri+pick is far better than that return for a more one-dimensional player that scores similarly in Hoffman. Players like Hoffman just haven’t returned better than that. If Dorion is interested in our futures, then that’s a different story, but the talk is that he isn’t. Considering 2/5 top prospects for the Blues are both Russian, and that the other 3 are all more valuable and wouldn’t historically be moved for a player like Hoffman, I believe Dorion is looking at Fabbri+, but Sobotka+Walman could also be what he is looking at.

Formenton was a prospect that I thought looked promising, but didn’t realize he was a top prospect for Ottawa. Chlapik, Brown, White, and Perron all seemed to be better and/or readier to me. With Brassard and Duchene at center, I assumed White would keep out Formenton, and Brown or Chlapik would cement that further in the middle-6, making Formenton expendable.

 

[Korpse]

Chabot hasn’t been playibg with Karlsson more than 20% of the time; Oduya and Claesson have been more consistently Karlsson’s partner.

How can you sit there and tell a guy who watches the team regularly he is wrong?

Sure over the whole season, those two have played more next to Karlsson, Chabot having played 12 less games than Claesson and 14 less than Oduya. The trend has been Chabot playing next to EK more and more. Looking at the last 10GP for each player this is how much time they have spent next to Karlsson at ES

Chabot: 91:30
Oduya 87:36
Claesson 34:37

I would have preferred to just just look at the last 10 senators games but Oduya has missed the last two because of Injury and Claesson was suspended for two and a healthy scratch for another two.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

How can you sit there and tell a guy who watches the team regularly he is wrong?

Sure over the whole season, those two have played more next to Karlsson, Chabot having played 12 less games than Claesson and 14 less than Oduya. The trend has been Chabot playing next to EK more and more. Looking at the last 10GP for each player this is how much time they have spent next to Karlsson at ES

Chabot: 91:30
Oduya 87:36
Claesson 34:37

I would have preferred to just just look at the last 10 senators games but Oduya has missed the last two because of Injury and Claesson was suspended for two and a healthy scratch for another two.

I know that. I’ve watched a lot of Senators games recently since the link to Hoffman. I’ve even gone back and watched a lot of the archived. Once Oduya returns, I assumed they would go back to having Oduya with Karlsson, as Boucher has only recently begun putting Chabot with Karlsson. There isn’t any sign that one is more likely than the other at this point.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Oshie returned Brouwer+Copley+3rd as a younger, two-way, 60pt player at a similar (less) cap hit with two full years remaining on his deal. Gunnarsson/Sobotka+Fabbri+pick is far better than that return for a more one-dimensional player that scores similarly in Hoffman. Players like Hoffman just haven’t returned better than that. If Dorion is interested in our futures, then that’s a different story, but the talk is that he isn’t. Considering 2/5 top prospects for the Blues are both Russian, and that the other 3 are all more valuable and wouldn’t historically be moved for a player like Hoffman, I believe Dorion is looking at Fabbri+, but Sobotka+Walman could also be what he is looking at.

Oshie getting an awful package in return has no bearing on what Hoffman will return.

A much better argument for why Hoffman won't return much is the incompetence of Sens management (see the Spezza, Ryan, Duchene, Brassard, Burrows trades).

Having said this, I don't think your proposal was that far off. Replace Formenton with a depth player/prospect and it looks pretty fair:


Hoffman, Claesson

for


Fabbri, Gunnarsson, 2nd/equivalent-prospect

Sens could then move Gunnarsson at the deadline for another 2nd/3rd.

 

[simon IC]

Gunnarsson isn’t UFA - he has another year left and would be your #2 LHD if Chabot is put on the right. Since it’s imperative that OTT moves Phaneuf, Gunnarsson would not only be replacing Oduya as Karlsson’s partner, but he would also allow Chabot to play opposite Ceci if and when Phaneuf is traded. Chabot hasn’t been playing with Karlsson more than 20% of the time; Oduya and Claesson have been more consistently Karlsson’s partner.

Fabbri has risk, but he’s a huge salary saver. hicstorically, players like Hoffman usual return a player+pick+prospect, and the value of those pieces interchange based on the GM’s primary target. Since OTT needs young, cheap, current players to be competitive over the next two years, Fabbri would be the best non-futures guy you could acquire from the Blues. Since the Blues have been reported to be front-runners on Hoffman multiple times, I was building a package around him.

Oshie returned Brouwer+Copley+3rd as a younger, two-way, 60pt player at a similar (less) cap hit with two full years remaining on his deal. Gunnarsson/Sobotka+Fabbri+pick is far better than that return for a more one-dimensional player that scores similarly in Hoffman. Players like Hoffman just haven’t returned better than that. If Dorion is interested in our futures, then that’s a different story, but the talk is that he isn’t. Considering 2/5 top prospects for the Blues are both Russian, and that the other 3 are all more valuable and wouldn’t historically be moved for a player like Hoffman, I believe Dorion is looking at Fabbri+, but Sobotka+Walman could also be what he is looking at.

Formenton was a prospect that I thought looked promising, but didn’t realize he was a top prospect for Ottawa. Chlapik, Brown, White, and Perron all seemed to be better and/or readier to me. With Brassard and Duchene at center, I assumed White would keep out Formenton, and Brown or Chlapik would cement that further in the middle-6, making Formenton expendable.

One question though; if the Sens do manage to dump Phaneuf's contract, (a tall order!), why would they want to trade Hoffman at all? He has apparently been showing some chemistry with Duchene. I thought Hoffman was available only because of Ottawa's internal cap.

 

[Castle8130]

Hoffman for Edmontons 1st? Just as bases, but something around that. I could see Hoffman and Mcdavid being a deadly combo.

 

[Korpse]

I know that. I’ve watched a lot of Senators games recently since the link to Hoffman. I’ve even gone back and watched a lot of the archived. Once Oduya returns, I assumed they would go back to having Oduya with Karlsson, as Boucher has only recently begun putting Chabot with Karlsson. There isn’t any sign that one is more likely than the other at this point.

When he returns I can see Oduya taking a chunk of the ice time away from Chabot but I'm not sure Oduya will get the lion's share. You can go back to early December and there's games where Chabot and Karlsson were playing 10+ minutes and Oduya was getting 3 or less. It just wasn't happening often and was largely dependant on the score, however recently it has been happening often and the score hasn't mattered. Even before the Oduya injury, it was Chabot getting the lion's share on most night. There's been a pretty obvious trend, Boucher is putting Chabot out there more regardless of score and it's mostly with Karlsson, taking away from Oduya and Claesson.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

One question though; if the Sens do manage to dump Phaneuf's contract, (a tall order!), why would they want to trade Hoffman at all? He has apparently been showing some chemistry with Duchene. I thought Hoffman was available only because of Ottawa's internal cap.

They need to adhere to a 68M internal salary cap. Phaneuf alone doesn’t do that for them after dining Stone and company.

He has shown chemistry with Duchene. Although if they had a more physical board player on that line, they’d be even better. One of Hoffman or Ryan is fine, but both make it too unbalanced. A guy like Sobotka might not be as flashy, but he would make that line better. Unfortunately, I don’t see them being able to move Ryan instead of Hoffman.

 

[simon IC]

Oshie getting an awful package in return has no bearing on what Hoffman will return.

A much better argument for why Hoffman won't return much is the incompetence of Sens management (see the Spezza, Ryan, Duchene, Brassard, Burrows trades).

Having said this, I don't think your proposal was that far off. Replace Formenton with a depth player/prospect and it looks pretty fair:


Hoffman, Claesson

for


Fabbri, Gunnarsson, 2nd/equivalent-prospect

Sens could then move Gunnarsson at the deadline for another 2nd/3rd.

I like this proposal. I'd prefer to give up a prospect, or 2019 2nd, than our 2018 2nd. Samuel Blais? Jordan Schmaltz?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Duchene got Bowers, Hammond, 1st, 3rd as a 60pt, younger center, and was generally agreed upon as an overpayment.

Stepan and Raanta got DeAngelo and a 1st as a 60pt center.

Schenn as a younger center/RW got two firsts and a large cap dump.

Eberle as a 60pt winger got Strome (largely regarded as a bad trade).

Saad and junk got Anisimov, Dano, and junk.

Pominville and a 4th got a 1st, 2nd, and junk.

Nash, a 3rd, and junk got Anisimov, Dubinsky, and a 1st.

I don’t want to go back any farther than that, but those are the “comparables”. Hoffman is more one-dimensional than some of those, and has fewer points as well.

Hoffman alone will likely get less than those trades. Adding to Hoffman might get similar value, but again, he’s a 1-dimensional (very good) 60pt winger - not a 2-way 60pt center.

 

[TSA0402]

If you're comparing Stepan, Eberle, Schenn, Nash, Pominville to Hoffman it would be to your benefit to watch more than one hockey team.

His one dimension is scoring(skating with an electric shot). Let me know which one of those guys has done what he has accomplished.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Pretending Hoffman gets a Duchene return, the equivalent of Bowers+Hammond+1st+3rd

Is

Kostin+Binnington+1st+3rd.

Since Ottawa wants a returning roster player, doesn’t like Russians, and STL doesn’t have a first, Fabbri+Gunnarsson+pick isn’t far off, if at all.

Neither is Walman+Sobotka+pick.

And that’s assuming Hoffman returns what Duchene did as a 60pt, younger center - and that was a large return by most opinions. If STL is the leader on Hoffman as expected, I don’t think more than that can be expected.

 

[simon IC]

If you're comparing Stepan, Eberle, Schenn, Nash, Pominville to Hoffman it would be to your benefit to watch more than one hockey team.

His one dimension is scoring(skating with an electric shot). Let me know which one of those guys has done what he has accomplished.

Stepan, Schenn and Nash can all play defense, with varying success. They are two way hockey players. There is more to hockey than points.

 

[Tripod]

If you're comparing Stepan, Eberle, Schenn, Nash, Pominville to Hoffman it would be to your benefit to watch more than one hockey team.

His one dimension is scoring(skating with an electric shot). Let me know which one of those guys has done what he has accomplished.

Not to be ignorant, but what are you thinking of when you say "what he has accomplished"?

I am just struggling to see what MH has done that these guys have not.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

If you're comparing Stepan, Eberle, Schenn, Nash, Pominville to Hoffman it would be to your benefit to watch more than one hockey team.

His one dimension is scoring(skating with an electric shot). Let me know which one of those guys has done what he has accomplished.

Considering that I mentioned above that I watch a lot of other teams (including Ottawa), this seems rude.

I’ll just mention some numbers about those players:


Stepan had seasons of 57, 55, 53, and 55pts when traded.

Duchene had 67, 70, 55, 59, and 41 when traded.

Eberle had seasons of 76, 65, 63, and 56pts when traded.

Pominville had 68, 80, 66, 62, and 73 when traded.

Nash had seasons of 69, 79, 67, 66, and 59 when traded.

Saad had 47, and 52 when traded.

Schenn had 47, 59, and 55 when traded.

Hoffman has had: 48, 59, 61, and currently 29pts.

Seem pretty comparable to me except that most of them play both sides of the puck. I watch Ottawa, and I know how good Hoffman is, but these are the best comparables in the past 6 years.

Eberle, Pomonville, Saad, and Nash have all had 30 or more goals - some in multiple years. Hoffman hasn’t reached 30 ever, but did get 29 in his best year. I don’t see Hoffman receiving better returns than any of them, except Eberle. Top prospects just don’t get traded for those types of players. Your best bet is to get something like a Neal for Hornqvist deal, but that’s a hockey trade where they traded goals for toughness and less goals (also contracts were a factor) - it’s doubtful a team trades Hoffman for Hoffman.

 

[migi]

When you are comparing returns, you should also think the time when the trade was made: how did demand and supply affected the market which is the biggest thing. If many teams want Hoffman, return will be somehow bigger. Obviously Dorion cant hold the phone too long but yeah.

You also need to take a look players contracts when valuing players.

You did good job with your research but the original offer is pretty bad. I would do it in a heartbeat if I'm Blue so.