Zadina

[Henkka]

I think it's more specifically that Zadina was taken 6th overall, one spot before Quinn Hughes, and was hyped to be a goal scorer.

As someone who doesn't really follow prospects I never understood how he was so hyped as a goal scorer. Based on one season in the QMJHL?

It's still generally weak forward draft class.

He was one of the best forwards but all are so damn poor from that class.

Zadina being good was an illusion. He was good versus his age-mates. But he is poor versus real NHL material.

 

[14ari13]

I think it's more specifically that Zadina was taken 6th overall, one spot before Quinn Hughes, and was hyped to be a goal scorer.

People are much more understanding with Veleno, I think largely because of where he was drafted. If Zadina were a second round pick people would probably see him for what he is. Not what they hoped he'd be.

As someone who doesn't really follow prospects I never understood how he was so hyped as a goal scorer. Based on one season in the QMJHL?

People expect a star player from the top 5 picks therefore high expectations and hard criticism.
People feel angry and disappointed as we have Zadina and Rasmussen as top 10, then we have dropped down 3 times 3 places in the draft, didn't we? So we kind of lost 5 times, 5 years. Rasmussen seems like he is turning the corner, but it is still a long way to go.

 

[Henkka]

Red Wings did fall 3 spots on that 2017 "rasmussen" draft.

1st overall Hischier has been fine 1st overall. Producing like top talent and his defence is heading to Selke direction.
2nd overall Nolan Patrick BUSTED HEAVILY
3rd overall Heiskanen has been the 2nd best defenceman
4th overall Cale Makar is the best player from this draft
5th overall Elias Pettersson has been the best offensive forward
-------------
So, the Wings original spot was being 6th worst. They did fall 3 spots to pick at 9th.

6th overall Cody Glass has looked heavily busting, but getting finally going at this season. Slightly worse in points than Rasmussen, look like the next Dylan Strome.
7th overall Lias Andersson BUSTED HEAVILY
8th overall Casey Mittelstad has been fine skill forward, producing middle6 numbers.
9th overall Michael Rasmussen was our pick. I think I still like of this pick, cause the dimensional edge it will give us.

Many can say that should have drafted Necas or should have drafted Thomas or should have drafted Suzuki. Yeah, they have developed better. Why didn't everybody take a guy like Jason Robertson..., no one could predict that would happen. Drafting is not easy.

I think I'm just happy, that Rasmussen is finally, slowly developing to be a force. It was him and Larkin, who carried our team for the strongest phase of the season before deadline and his season-ending injury. And as a look back, how we avoided Glass and Andersson. Mittelstad is a midget, I's take Rasmussen 100/100 cases before him, on this day.

There was never a chance to get any of those Top5 guys, because our pick was 6th overall at highest. So I don't cry after them. Lottery chances are so laughable. It was either 6th or 7-9th overall in all cases.

 

[jaster]

What we're witnessing from Zadina is an overall positive transformation. However, if you're still hoping for a top-6 scoring winger (on a good team), then you might be disappointed.

Zadina is finally doing what has seemed inevitable for a little while now. He's simplifying his game to carve out an NHL career. His trajectory no longer includes becoming a top-6 winger (on a good team), and on some level he must know that. So he's doing the little things and gaining more trust from the coaches. And I do think it's causing him to "grip the stick" less. He's essentially turning himself into an effective bottom-6 winger who may be able to aptly fill-in on a 2nd line when needed. Which, despite being disappointing relative to what everyone hoped for, is good. Because otherwise, he'd be washing out of the NHL entirely like so many offense-only wingers whose offense is not good enough to be their only positive trait.

Now trajectories can change, and I won't completely rule out him blooming late and suddenly being a 25-goal scorer at 26 years old or something. But for now I think this is what he needs to do. Play hard, play defensively, and chip in whatever offense you can (which, frankly, given his talent should be more than most bottom-6 guys).

The twist, of course, is that Yzerman has tried to trade him, which to me means Yzerman will inevitably trade him. But for Zadina himself, he's turning into what might be a valuable player, hopefully with trade value.

 

[Hen Kolland]

What we're witnessing from Zadina is an overall positive transformation. However, if you're still hoping for a top-6 scoring winger (on a good team), then you might be disappointed.

Zadina is finally doing what has seemed inevitable for a little while now. He's simplifying his game to carve out an NHL career. His trajectory no longer includes becoming a top-6 winger (on a good team), and on some level he must know that. So he's doing the little things and gaining more trust from the coaches. And I do think it's causing him to "grip the stick" less. He's essentially turning himself into an effective bottom-6 winger who may be able to aptly fill-in on a 2nd line when needed. Which, despite being disappointing relative to what everyone hoped for, is good. Because otherwise, he'd be washing out of the NHL entirely like so many offense-only wingers whose offense is not good enough to be their only positive trait.

Now trajectories can change, and I won't completely rule out him blooming late and suddenly being a 25-goal scorer at 26 years old or something. But for now I think this is what he needs to do. Play hard, play defensively, and chip in whatever offense you can (which, frankly, given his talent should be more than most bottom-6 guys).

The twist, of course, is that Yzerman has tried to trade him, which to me means Yzerman will inevitably trade him. But for Zadina himself, he's turning into what might be a valuable player, hopefully with trade value.

I don't know if I am prepared to say that he "tried" to trade him, but rather was open to it. In a case like Vrana, Yzerman was very upfront when asked about the trade. Yzerman basically said that he came to the realization that it wasn't working and likely would never work, and he made a trade to cut ties because the team needed to be done with it. That's damning and says a lot without saying anything specific.

As for Zadina, it could have easily been that discussions were had and he didn't feel that anyone was going to pay above the value that he would need to move on from him.

For Zadina in general, I felt like he has such a high level of pressure that he applies internally, he was a real risk to becoming a headcase, causing him to completely unravel and amount to nothing. However, the way that Zadina is currently playing makes me hopeful that the other side is a potential reality; he treads water enough to make it into real adulthood, where he starts to level off mentally and realize that there's no sense in carrying as much stress as he has. Growing into his mid-20s mentally and physically, a new approach, less pressure, and suddenly he finds his game.

Maybe that comes in a new city when he starts to appreciate that life in the NHL isn't fair and he can't expect massive results. But he seems to be in a different headspace right now for sure.

 

[jaster]

I don't know if I am prepared to say that he "tried" to trade him, but rather was open to it. In a case like Vrana, Yzerman was very upfront when asked about the trade. Yzerman basically said that he came to the realization that it wasn't working and likely would never work, and he made a trade to cut ties because the team needed to be done with it. That's damning and says a lot without saying anything specific.

As for Zadina, it could have easily been that discussions were had and he didn't feel that anyone was going to pay above the value that he would need to move on from him.

For Zadina in general, I felt like he has such a high level of pressure that he applies internally, he was a real risk to becoming a headcase, causing him to completely unravel and amount to nothing. However, the way that Zadina is currently playing makes me hopeful that the other side is a potential reality; he treads water enough to make it into real adulthood, where he starts to level off mentally and realize that there's no sense in carrying as much stress as he has. Growing into his mid-20s mentally and physically, a new approach, less pressure, and suddenly he finds his game.

Maybe that comes in a new city when he starts to appreciate that life in the NHL isn't fair and he can't expect massive results. But he seems to be in a different headspace right now for sure.

To the bold.... Yes, admittedly I am taking some liberties in reading between the lines. Your take is sensible. I just think that if you appear on a Steve Yzerman trade block, your days are numbered. He'll make you available repeatedly, and once there is a return he likes, bye Felicia. I think Hronek is a good example of what I'm talking about. Now, Zadina is younger and cheaper than Hronek, so maybe he's got more runway in changing Yzerman's mind than Hronek did, but if I have to place a bet, I bet that Zadina is one day traded. (and yes, Vrana was on a whole other level, seems Yzerman couldn't offload him fast enough).

As for the rest about Zadina, I completely agree. I think that mental piece is absolutely hand-in-hand with the change we seem to be seeing. My hope is that he continues down that path, becomes a valuable piece, and isn't ultimately traded. But regardless, whether he's traded or not, I'm rooting for him. I hope he becomes a player so that he either provides value on the ice for Detroit, or value in a trade.

 

[Hen Kolland]

To the bold.... Yes, admittedly I am taking some liberties in reading between the lines. Your take is sensible. I just think that if you appear on a Steve Yzerman trade block, your days are numbered. He'll make you available repeatedly, and once there is a return he likes, bye Felicia. I think Hronek is a good example of what I'm talking about. Now, Zadina is younger and cheaper than Hronek, so maybe he's got more runway in changing Yzerman's mind than Hronek did, but if I have to place a bet, I bet that Zadina is one day traded. (and yes, Vrana was on a whole other level, seems Yzerman couldn't offload him fast enough).

As for the rest about Zadina, I completely agree. I think that mental piece is absolutely hand-in-hand with the change we seem to be seeing. My hope is that he continues down that path, becomes a valuable piece, and isn't ultimately traded. But regardless, whether he's traded or not, I'm rooting for him. I hope he becomes a player so that he either provides value on the ice for Detroit, or value in a trade.

The Hronek thing is really interesting. "You have conversations about certain players that you may not be considering trading, and then someone makes an offer that you really can't refuse"

Something along those lines was Yzerman's comment when asked. That feels weird. Like "huh, I never thought about that, but when you mention it, pack your shit"

 

[jaster]

The Hronek thing is really interesting. "You have conversations about certain players that you may not be considering trading, and then someone makes an offer that you really can't refuse"

Something along those lines was Yzerman's comment when asked. That feels weird. Like "huh, I never thought about that, but when you mention it, pack your shit"

Ha. Yeah, I get a strong sense from Yzerman that he is way more sure of his plans (big and small) than he lets on publicly. I get why he wants to come off as more vague though, obviously.

 

[SirloinUB]

At this point the team stands to gain more from betting on Zadina rather than betting against Zadina.

 

[Hen Kolland]

At this point the team stands to gain more from betting on Zadina rather than betting against Zadina.

This is a simple statement that everyone should be able to agree with, but I know there are some that will disagree

 

[Perfect Human]

This is a simple statement that everyone should be able to agree with, but I know there are some that will disagree

Fire the dissenters into the sun.

 

[MBH]

I think it's more specifically that Zadina was taken 6th overall, one spot before Quinn Hughes, and was hyped to be a goal scorer.

People are much more understanding with Veleno, I think largely because of where he was drafted. If Zadina were a second round pick people would probably see him for what he is. Not what they hoped he'd be.

As someone who doesn't really follow prospects I never understood how he was so hyped as a goal scorer. Based on one season in the QMJHL?

There was a point during the draft year when Zadina was actually being floated higher than Svech - after the WJC where he scored seven goals in seven games.
Svech pulled away again later in the year.
But Zadina was generally considered the consensus 3 pick until the final ranking of McKenzie came out and he said while he was still third - it really depended which scout you talked to.
For me, it was always obvious we needed defense. We'd been striking out on defense since Niklas Kronwall. So I never looked into Zadina much - partly because I never thought he'd fall to six.

 

[MBH]

At this point the team stands to gain more from betting on Zadina rather than betting against Zadina.

Right now? For the rest of the season? Sure. Very little to lose.
But if the dude shows nothing the rest of the way, forget it.

 

[SirloinUB]

Right now? For the rest of the season? Sure. Very little to lose.
But if the dude shows nothing the rest of the way, forget it.

Let's unpack it a bit.

We have two options, right? We can keep him, or we move on. Let start with moving on.

He can be waived or traded. Given his level of play he can’t be worth a lot. Look at the Puljujarvi trade as an example of a high pedigree player/pick not living up to expectations. He returned a 22 year old who is 16th in Liiga scoring and was no longer ranked as a prospect within the Carolina system. Functionally there is no upside here. We can also get rid of him via waivers or buyout. The “upside here” would be limited to creating a roster spot (but your aversion to signing UFAs is well documented so there is no upside in creating a roster spot by getting rid of Zadina).

Okay, so at very best we can a middling euro player in exchange for Zadina. No upside there. Clearly there is little to gain in betting against Zadina improving his game. Let’s look at the alternative, we keep him.


Really there are 3 outcomes if we keep him:

1) He regresses even further. Possible but unlikely. As a young player regression is unlikely however the downside is obviously being left with nothing which would be the same outcome as losing him on waivers.

2) He maintains his level of play. In this outcome, he probably isn’t a particularly useful piece on a contender, but bottom teams still need to ice a roster. Status quo isn’t a negative result and we move on from him when his contract expires.

3) He continues to improve his play. Downside? Nothing. Upside? We have a useful middle 6 player (or better) on a cheap contract for 2 years. He could then be flipped for useful assets or retained to be a part of the team.


So ultimately, we have nothing to gain by jettisoning Zadina from the organization and a range of possible outcomes if we keep. Now you might say its unlikely that he develops into something more. Id counter its more likely he develops into something than whatever middling cast off we’d get in a trade for him. Obviously, there will be a point to move on, but we’re at least a year away from that.


I'll repeat, regardless of how unlikely it is, we have more to gain in betting he can find another level than betting against it by getting rid of him.

 

[izlez]

Let's unpack it a bit.

We have two options, right? We can keep him, or we move on. Let start with moving on.

He can be waived or traded. Given his level of play he can’t be worth a lot. Look at the Puljujarvi trade as an example of a high pedigree player/pick not living up to expectations. He returned a 22 year old who is 16th in Liiga scoring and was no longer ranked as a prospect within the Carolina system. Functionally there is no upside here. We can also get rid of him via waivers or buyout. The “upside here” would be limited to creating a roster spot (but your aversion to signing UFAs is well documented so there is no upside in creating a roster spot by getting rid of Zadina).

Okay, so at very best we can a middling euro player in exchange for Zadina. No upside there. Clearly there is little to gain in betting against Zadina improving his game. Let’s look at the alternative, we keep him.


Really there are 3 outcomes if we keep him:

1) He regresses even further. Possible but unlikely. As a young player regression is unlikely however the downside is obviously being left with nothing which would be the same outcome as losing him on waivers.

2) He maintains his level of play. In this outcome, he probably isn’t a particularly useful piece on a contender, but bottom teams still need to ice a roster. Status quo isn’t a negative result and we move on from him when his contract expires.

3) He continues to improve his play. Downside? Nothing. Upside? We have a useful middle 6 player (or better) on a cheap contract for 2 years. He could then be flipped for useful assets or retained to be a part of the team.


So ultimately, we have nothing to gain by jettisoning Zadina from the organization and a range of possible outcomes if we keep. Now you might say its unlikely that he develops into something more. Id counter its more likely he develops into something than whatever middling cast off we’d get in a trade for him. Obviously, there will be a point to move on, but we’re at least a year away from that.


I'll repeat, regardless of how unlikely it is, we have more to gain in betting he can find another level than betting against it by getting rid of him.

That's a lot of words to say something that is nothing more than your opinion and the argument could easily just be flipped and be just as valid.

We can keep him, or we move on. Let start with keeping him.

Nail Yakupov struggled early in his career. He never improved and eventually left for Russia, leaving his team with nothing.

Clearly there is little to gain in betting that Zadina will improve based on this example. So lets look at the alternative, we move on from him:

1. We cut him, oh well.

2. We trade him for equal value. Status quo isn't bad.

3. A GM is enamored with Zadina and gives up 37 First Round Picks for him


I repeat, Zadina will not improve and moving on from him opens up a world of acquiring superstars, regardless of how likely it is

 

[izlez]

Sirloin presented an argument where he knew the future of a potential trade, but Zadina's hockey ability was an unknown that was worth rolling the dice on. How is knowing the future of Zadina's hockey ability, but treating his trade value as an unknown any less valid?

They are both unknowns.

 

[SirloinUB]

Sirloin presented an argument where he knew the future of a potential trade, but Zadina's hockey ability was an unknown that was worth rolling the dice on. How is knowing the future of Zadina's hockey ability, but treating his trade value as an unknown any less valid?

They are both unknowns.

You clearly aren't interested in having a good faith discussion. Like in what world does Zadina have meaningfully different trade value than JP?

I very obviously don't know Zadina's future ability, which is why I mapped out possible 3 outcomes.

I made an assumption, based on a comparable, that Zadina doesnt have much trade value (at this point in time). I guess technically speaking it is possible a GM will offer up a windfall for Zadina - I'd love to hear arguments that lead you believe this is a realistically plausible outcome.

If you'd like to actually rebuke my assumption that "Zadina doesn't have meaningful trade value" (which was based on a comparable example), I'm all ears!

Let's hear it! I would absolutely love to get multiple 1sts and/or top prospects for him. Show me what I am missing.

 

[Reddwit]

The Hronek thing is really interesting. "You have conversations about certain players that you may not be considering trading, and then someone makes an offer that you really can't refuse"

Something along those lines was Yzerman's comment when asked. That feels weird. Like "huh, I never thought about that, but when you mention it, pack your shit"

I think it’s implied that by having “conversations” about “certain” players, you *are* thinking about that - how a player fits into your future plans, if you think their next contract will be good value, if you think they’re replaceable and how, what would move the needle for you if you traded them, etc. So it’s not “hey, now that you mention it…” but “yeah, we’ve already been mulling over what this guy means to us, so we’re actually prepared to…”

And we, as fans and amateur scouts/GMs, have been doing the same with Hronek for years now. Id find it hard to believe that us fans are discussing anything that isn’t already apparent to management.

 

[izlez]

You clearly aren't interested in having a good faith discussion. Like in what world does Zadina have meaningfully different trade value than JP?

I very obviously don't know Zadina's future ability, which is why I mapped out possible 3 outcomes.

I made an assumption, based on a comparable, that Zadina doesnt have much trade value (at this point in time). I guess technically speaking it is possible a GM will offer up a windfall for Zadina - I'd love to hear arguments that lead you believe this is a realistically plausible outcome.

If you'd like to actually rebuke my assumption that "Zadina doesn't have meaningful trade value" (which was based on a comparable example), I'm all ears! Let's hear it!

I don't know... a young struggling player in Drouin returned Sergachev and a 2nd.

I don't even necessarily disagree with the conclusion that we SHOULD hang on to Zadina. But you can't just ignore the possibility that an other organizations could perceive Zadina's value higher than his true value

 

[SirloinUB]

I don't know... a young struggling player in Drouin returned Sergachev and a 2nd.

I don't even necessarily disagree with the conclusion that we SHOULD hang on to Zadina. But you can't just ignore the possibility that an other organizations could perceive Zadina's value higher than his true value

Drouin had a 50 point (in 73 games) season under his belt prior to the trade. I’m not sure that’s a good comparable. Dach might be a strong counter but as a big body Center that was drafted top 3 I’m not sold on it. I do believe JP is the best comparable now.

Bottom line is there is more evidence to suggest Zadina has limited to value than the inverse. I mean we could run around assuming we could trade Larkin for Draisaitl, but to what point?

Obviously with all of this I trust Yzerman, which is part of my baseline assumption on Zadina's value. If Yzerman could have traded Zadina for Luke Hughes or a top 10 pick, wouldn't he have done so?

 

[sepster]

Another Classic Zadina "how did you miss that chance" last night. He might be the most prolific "no-goal scorer" I've ever seen.

 

[jaster]

He's gotta keep working on those bottom-6 traits, because top-6 or middle-6 point producer is just not in the cards.

 

[sepster]

A pretty good Bottom-6 trait is not getting frustrated by taking a hit and then committing a stupid retaliation penalty. I agree, he needs to work on that.

 

[better Red than Dead]

I don’t think Zadina helped his case with his swagger when he was drafted saying he was going to “fill the nets” of the teams that passed on him.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

A pretty good Bottom-6 trait is not getting frustrated by taking a hit and then committing a stupid retaliation penalty. I agree, he needs to work on that.

How about effectively clearing the zone so your team can fully change and get back in position?