Speculation: Zadina vs Hronek

[Go Wings]

Hronek is a decent 2nd pairing defensemen. Zadina is barely a 3rd line winger at this point.
Hronek everyday of the week and twice on Sunday

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

Avs fans were saying a 1++ for Girard, and Hronek puts up more points than he does

 

[SoupNazi]

Avs fans were saying a 1++ for Girard, and Hronek puts up more points than he does

Fans always greatly overvalue their players. Look at Habs fans. They were saying a 1st+ for Petry.

 

[haulinbass]

Jesus, that's a horrible interpretation. It most likely doesn't mean "on thin ice", it's rather SY seeing a lot of potential beyond Seiders early, already great performance and that he needs to continue to work to become the best he can possibly be.

...

I guess everybody can relax on Mo. Has that German video about his off season regimen already been posted here? WIIM had it a couple days ago. Mo reminds me a lot of Dirk, whose work ethic was off the charts.

Yeah, about that.......... I was being sarcastic about Seider (proving a point if you will). Maybe you should read the post I quoted and put it all together.

 

[Reddwit]

The Hronek hate around here is hilarious. Some posters saying we need to get rid of a 24 year old RHD who's good for 40 points a year, who produces very well 5v5, who plays 22 minutes a night. Not to mention he drives shot attempts and starts the majority of his shifts in the dzone. He also plays against the opponents best players.

It’s over the top. Hronek’s real crime isn’t being a bad player but being miscast. Just to add on to what you said, he’s also played more PK minutes than any other Wing over the past 3 years when he should really be the #5 PKer.

On that note, everyone should at least be willing to give Hronek a chance this year, cause he’s going to be playing in a much more appropriate role this year. He won’t be handling tough defensive match-ups and he shouldn’t even have to PK regularly.

PK TOI last year:
Chiarot - 2:22
Pysyk - 2:01
Seider - 1:53
Maatta - 1:47

Those should be the PK anchors next year.

 

[OneMoreTry]

Yeah, about that.......... I was being sarcastic about Seider (proving a point if you will). Maybe you should read the post I quoted and put it all together.

You know what? I simply quoted the wrong guy. Sorry!

 

[SoupGuru]

Hronek is a defenseman. I think he should at least have some defensive skills. He doesn't. For all intents, we're playing with 4 forwards and 1 defenseman when he's out there. Which is great when you're in the offensive zone but it's terrible when you're in your defensive zone. I think people cast a blind eye to his defensive liabilities. He's terrible.

Last season he had 38 points. He was -29. And it's not skewed by PP points either, like he scored 29 PP points and got scored on 29 times at even strength - that would be a statistical quirk where you could argue his effectiveness is a wash. No, he only has 7 PP points. 7! He got scored on 31 times to wipe out those even strength points and then got scored on another 29 times!

I know plus minus doesn't tell the whole story but you can compare between teammates pretty readily and he doesn't come away looking very good.

In short, if you keep him around, you've got to pair him with a defender good enough to play D solo.

 

[SoupGuru]

Not to beat a dead horse, if you sum up the last three seasons, Hronek had the worst plus minus in the league.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Can Zadina twirl an octopus?

is that what the kids call it these days?

 

[Shultzyfeelinirie25]

How long did it take Yzerman to get rid of Drouin ? I feel like Zadina is in that spot where Drouin was before he dealt him

 

[lidstromiscool]

Not to beat a dead horse, if you sum up the last three seasons, Hronek had the worst plus minus in the league.

View attachment 570250

And Larkin is the 2nd worst defensive forward in the league? I wouldn't say Larkin is great defensively but he's certainly not bad. Plus/Minus is such an irrelevant stat. Hronek playing the most minutes on the worst team is the reason for his plus/minus. Look no further than Athanasiou who upon going to a good team suddenly puts up a decent plus/minus.

 

[Frk It]

The Hronek hate around here is hilarious. Some posters saying we need to get rid of a 24 year old RHD who's good for 40 points a year, who produces very well 5v5, who plays 22 minutes a night. Not to mention he drives shot attempts and starts the majority of his shifts in the dzone. He also plays against the opponents best players.

Will also be funny if we sign Klingberg, and he does some of the same stuff Hronek does, people will be a lot more forgiving.

 

[SoupGuru]

And Larkin is the 2nd worst defensive forward in the league? I wouldn't say Larkin is great defensively but he's certainly not bad. Plus/Minus is such an irrelevant stat. Hronek playing the most minutes on the worst team is the reason for his plus/minus. Look no further than Athanasiou who upon going to a good team suddenly puts up a decent plus/minus.

Does plus minus tell the whole story? No. It's it useful to compare teammates? Sure.

The Wings have sucked. Everyone takes a hit to their plus minus. But some people are in a special category. Clearly, Hronek is very very not good defensively. He's in a category of his own.

Last three seasons, defensemen, Wings:

 

[HisNoodliness]

Does plus minus tell the whole story? No. It's it useful to compare teammates? Sure.

The Wings have sucked. Everyone takes a hit to their plus minus. But some people are in a special category. Clearly, Hronek is very very not good defensively. He's in a category of his own.

Last three seasons, defensemen, Wings:

View attachment 570264

I thought you were posting this chart to show how silly it is to use +/- to criticize Hronek. He's played twice as many games as nearly every name on the list. Furthermore if you look at the names doing any better on +/- per game, you'll see that they're either Moritz Seider or are playing at least 4 minutes less per game than Hronek and generally against bottom of the lineup competition. Sure, Hronek hasn't been able to handle being a 1st pairing defenseman on a bottom 5 team in his 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons in the league, but clearly, he's not in a category of his own at all.

 

[Ezekial]

Hronek ANIEC

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Does plus minus tell the whole story? No. It's it useful to compare teammates? Sure.

The Wings have sucked. Everyone takes a hit to their plus minus. But some people are in a special category. Clearly, Hronek is very very not good defensively. He's in a category of his own.

Last three seasons, defensemen, Wings:

View attachment 570264

Factor in 199gp vs. the next (Staal) @ 127, DDK @ 114, Nemeth @ 103gp.
That makes a huge diff. too. Agree Hronek is poor defensively, just not as poor as this chart suggest w/o context, i.e. gp. TOI would be another factor...

 

[SoupGuru]

Is there a better metric to use to determine Hronek's defensive abilities? I'd love to see it.

As it stands, his defensive game looks like shit with the eye test and his stats look like shit too.

As far as the thread is concerned, yes, I'm confident a GM will over-pay for Hronek at some point.

Still worth more than Zadina

 

[RRhoads]

Does plus minus tell the whole story? No. It's it useful to compare teammates? Sure.

The Wings have sucked. Everyone takes a hit to their plus minus. But some people are in a special category. Clearly, Hronek is very very not good defensively. He's in a category of his own.

Last three seasons, defensemen, Wings:

You have to take into consideration matchups as well. The entire team has been shit defensively for years, and Hronek has had to match up against our opponents best lines. Just look at some of our other defensemen. Take a look at our favorite scapegoat the last 10 years, Jonathan Ericsson. He was good when he didn't have to play above his level. He was great on the third pairing. When put on the first pairing, he sucked. Same is true with Kronwall. He was good at the second pairing, but not that good on the first pairing. He was never a plus player on the first pairing. Fact is, he was never a plus player again after Brad Stuart.

+/- doesn't say much about how good a player is defensively.

I am not saying Hronek is good defensively. I am just saying you can't determine it with +/-. You can't even use the eye test. Is his defensive partner good at keeping his position, or does he have to cover for him. If one defensemen gets out of position, often both will be. And then there's the forwards, they have their roles to play defensively too, and they have been terrible at that.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Is there a better metric to use to determine Hronek's defensive abilities? I'd love to see it.

As it stands, his defensive game looks like shit with the eye test and his stats look like shit too.

As far as the thread is concerned, yes, I'm confident a GM will over-pay for Hronek at some point.

Still worth more than Zadina

His relative GA/60:
-.4, .85, -0.08, 0.28
His relative xGA/60:
-.38, .28, .25, .11
His raw GA/60:
2.71, 3.6, 2.41, 3.21
His raw xGA/60:
2.42, 2.67, 2.5, 2.81

Seider for comparison of what a good defensive D in Hronek's situation looks like:
rel GA/60:-.44, rel xGA/60: .08, GA/60: 2.75, xGA/60: 2.76

My interpretation of this is that he has slightly hurt the team defensively when he's on the ice. He was particularly bad three years ago. In the context of his circumstance, he's honestly done about as well as you could expect of a 24 year old offensive D playing a 1D role on a garbage team when he really belongs on the second pairing with a steady partner.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Will also be funny if we sign Klingberg, and he does some of the same stuff Hronek does, people will be a lot more forgiving.

I am totally down with signing Klingberg, but I do find it funny when any of the Hronek haters are cool with signing him. His (negative) defensive impacts are really similar to Hronek's while playing 5 minutes less a night and starting way more of his shifts in the o zone. These D are good because they compensate with their offense, but anyone that dislikes Hronek is going to really hate Klingberg.

 

[OneMoreTry]

Let me just mention once again that in the first chart, that Klingberg guy - who some ppl here are so interested in signing - is an amazing -53 on a team that made the playoffs in 2 of those 3 seasons.

Quite impressive they could get there despite his participation.

 

[haulinbass]

And Larkin is the 2nd worst defensive forward in the league? I wouldn't say Larkin is great defensively but he's certainly not bad. Plus/Minus is such an irrelevant stat. Hronek playing the most minutes on the worst team is the reason for his plus/minus. Look no further than Athanasiou who upon going to a good team suddenly puts up a decent plus/minus.

It's not fair to use logic and reason around here, not everyone is capable of such things.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

How long did it take Yzerman to get rid of Drouin ? I feel like Zadina is in that spot where Drouin was before he dealt him

Zadina couldn't carry Drouin's jock strap.

Zadina is more like Yzerman inherited Brett Connolly instead of drafted him, only Zadina is softer and with a worse shot.

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

You have to take into consideration matchups as well. The entire team has been shit defensively for years, and Hronek has had to match up against our opponents best lines. Just look at some of our other defensemen. Take a look at our favorite scapegoat the last 10 years, Jonathan Ericsson. He was good when he didn't have to play above his level. He was great on the third pairing. When put on the first pairing, he sucked. Same is true with Kronwall. He was good at the second pairing, but not that good on the first pairing. He was never a plus player on the first pairing. Fact is, he was never a plus player again after Brad Stuart.

+/- doesn't say much about how good a player is defensively.

I am not saying Hronek is good defensively. I am just saying you can't determine it with +/-. You can't even use the eye test. Is his defensive partner good at keeping his position, or does he have to cover for him. If one defensemen gets out of position, often both will be. And then there's the forwards, they have their roles to play defensively too, and they have been terrible at that.

Leddy's +/- was much worse than Hronek's when he was traded but he has been a plus with the Blues and earned a nice 4 year deal with them

 

[GMR]

Teams have a sexual fascination with right handed defensemen nowadays. That alone gives Hronek trade value.

Zadina is a small winger who hasn't shown he can score in the NHL. Those players are common in the NHL.