I was pretty close on Little. I estimated we'd have to pay him a minimum of 4.5, but in buying his UFA years we may have to push the envelope to 4.8 (similar to the Gagner deal), they settled on 4.7. I figured he'd get 4 years and he got 5. Had Little hit UFA next July, I figured a team would easily pony up 4.5-5 million per season for his services.
For Wheeler, I estimated 5 years and he got 6. Salary wise, I figured this season being his last as RFA status may have dipped on the cheaper side of the deal in actual dollars as Bryan Little did, but as far as buying his UFA years, that was coming at a price and I estimated 5.5 million through those UFA years, he got 5.6. Had Wheeler hit UFA next July, I figured a team would easily pony up 5.5-6 million per season for his services.
Not to toot my own horn
p
, but I'll put my track record here on the line and estimate what I believe Bogosian will get.
Bogosian has 2 more seasons as RFA years/contractual status, so they'll come a little cheaper, in my opinion. But after that, the price tag will rise accordingly for a mid-twenties defenceman in his prime years, with the draft status Zach has (3rd overall) and being en route to fulfilling his potential in which we've seen and been very happy with over the last 2 years in Winnipeg. His injury history won't effect the price that much, in my opinion. Whether we pay Zach or not, another team will, he knows it and Chevy knows it.
Here is my estimated guess for Zach Bogosian.
7 years, 36.5 million. AAV of about = 5.2 million per season.
Year 1 (RFA status) - 4.5 million
Year 2 (RFA status) - 4.5 million
Year 3 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
Year 4 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
year 5 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
Year 6 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
Year 7 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
So we would lock Zach Bogosian up through the ages of 23-30. Leaving both sides open for another solid deal, or Zach could sign elsewhere and still be in a position to land a really good last contract as he will be 29 turning 30 when this 7 year deal expires.
Also, by going 7 years, it staggers the contracts of our core. You don't want them all UFA at once, and with the staggering effect it can work nicely as if you're doing well as a team, these guys may want to stay since the others are already here. And we already know how well this core group enjoys being together as we've heard all of Little, Wheeler and Bogosian have been in communication over their negotiations. It can be a positive domino effect when it comes to re-signing these players. Chevy has set this up so Ladd and Byfuglien are UFA in 2016, Pavelec in 2017, Kane, Little and Enstrom in 2018, Wheeler in 2019. So I think Bogosian's contract runs to at least 6 years bringing us to 2019 with Wheeler. I can't see it being a 5 year deal and expiring in 2018 with all of Kane, Little and Enstrom that summer, and it surely won't be a 4 year deal (too short). In summary, 4 years is too short, 5 years clashes with other big UFA's, 6 years fits with Wheeler, 7 years would bring Bogosian the year after Wheeler. 6-7 years would be ideal for both the team and player.