Zach Bogosians contract - are we undervaluing him?

[pateramus]

my guess is 5.6 - 5.8 for 7 years

Predicting the future for anyone is hard, even if someone has scored 50+ goals a season and won the rocket richard (cheechoo) they can drop off the map completely. You have to look at who ever you are trying to sign, take an educated guess at what you think his REALISTIC potential is, meld that with his drive, work ethic, etc... and sign him for as low as you can.

wheeler said hopefully he gets a similar contract, they've been talking to each other, so sounds like they are on the same page as to what they wanted.

7 years because we want him longterm, he wants longterm and we don't want all our ufa's coming up on the same year. Nobody at 7 yet. this would follow suite with the others, slightly more then what most on here think he should be signed for.

 

[Jet]

I'm not saying it's not, just that post like yours suggest you think he's the 2nd coming of Christ.

I am an unabashed superfan of Zach Bogosian. I truly, honestly believe in his potential.

I am also a positive person. I prefer to hope for the best.

 

[Duke749]

I am an unabashed superfan of Zach Bogosian. I truly, honestly believe in his potential.

I am also a positive person. I prefer to hope for the best.

I just don't want to get too high on him because if he doesn't reach his potential, it's that much more disappointing. I've been fairly reserved when it comes to Bogosian for a while now just because I want to see him prove himself before he's anointed a top 10 or better defenseman.

 

[jetsfan8]

lol you guys are hilarious

bogo is our best dman, arguably best player on the team, and our guy of the future he gets at least 6mil a year
this is nhl, you want players to play, you pay the man

 

[sully1410]

My problem (and most likely Zach's camps) with this is that while the first couple years are fair value, the last 2 will most likely be very under. Hence you pay a little more now and save some later.

The benefit to this as well is that if we are in a position to contend in 3 or 4 years, Zach's cap hit wont be so prohibitive that we can't go shopping to fill out our roster.

That's fine and dandy, but your saying that years 7 and 8 are going to be low for his potential...but potential is just that...potential. 6-8 years is a long time, and banking on him turning into the next Kris Letang or Drew Doughty is pretty far fetched. As well Ryan Suter who was a Norris finalist this year makes 7.2. If what you say is true, that must be a pretty hefty pay cut in a couple of years.

Frankly, we don't know how good Bogosian is going to be in 2018. His compatibles both signed for a cap hit under 5, and while Hamonic may not be as good...Rag fans are just as high on McDonough(sp) as we are on Bogo.

Bogo may well be a great Defenseman, and I hope he is...but I wouldn't want to get him locked into a massive contract until he shows that Franchise DMan Second coming of Chris Pronger status.

I don't think GM's she'll out the kind I scratch your talking about based on merely potential.

That may be the hang up though.

 

[Duke749]

lol you guys are hilarious

bogo is our best dman, arguably best player on the team, and our guy of the future he gets at least 6mil a year
this is nhl, you want players to play, you pay the man

You want to make a joke at everyone else, yet make a statement like "arguably best player on the team" and think he deserves at least $6 mill??? Last I checked, he hasn't even proven what two of our other defensemen have proven and yet you want to throw the bank at him???

 

[Gnova]

I went back a few pages but didn't see a thread specifically on Bogosian. It's interesting how we've been a little far off with the last two big contracts, I'm wondering if we'll be off for Bogosians contract as well.

Wheeler - 6 years - 5.6 AAV
Little - 5 years - 4.7 AAV
Total $10.3 million

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1460383

Most guesses seem 200k-700k low for those two each, and I don't think anyone guessed over $10 million total for those two. Is it safe to say we're also undervaluing Bogosian? That's a scary thought, because there's some $6 million guesses on there. We only have $7,466,500 left in cap space, and that includes the bonus cushion*. That's not a lot of room.

*With the bonus cushion you're allowed to go over the cap by 7.5% in bonuses. If the overage is realized, the overage is deducted from next seasons cap. Needless to say Chevy doesn't want Trouba or Scheifele put us over the cap.

edit: I also forgot to add, Blake Wheeler let it slip that Bogosian also wants a longer term contract during his conference call.

Earlier in the summer there was a poll and I fair number of people thought it was going to cost $16 mill-ish to sign all three.

 

[garret9]

lol you guys are hilarious

bogo is our best dman, arguably best player on the team, and our guy of the future he gets at least 6mil a year
this is nhl, you want players to play, you pay the man

I'd say he can be our best d-man at times but consistently and on average I still rate Enstrom and Byfuglien higher. The difference is closing fast though and Bogosian still has the ability to climb higher while the other two are essentially around their peek.

 

[Gnova]

I just don't want to get too high on him because if he doesn't reach his potential, it's that much more disappointing. I've been fairly reserved when it comes to Bogosian for a while now just because I want to see him prove himself before he's anointed a top 10 or better defenseman.

Those are exactly my sentiments.
People are throwing around "best defenseman", "best player on the team" but he has yet to prove that he can play consistently and remain healthy through a season.
Signing a guy to a long term big money contract who has been unable to take a top pairing job and appears to be injury prone seems risky in the extreme.
However, my guess is 5 x 5.2. A guess is all it is.

 

[King Woodballs]

Those are exactly my sentiments.
People are throwing around "best defenseman", "best player on the team" but he has yet to prove that he can play consistently and remain healthy through a season.
Signing a guy to a long term big money contract who has been unable to take a top pairing job and appears to be injury prone seems risky in the extreme.
However, my guess is 5 x 5.2. A guess is all it is.

Then who is the best d man? Neither buff nor Toby have played a full season since the Jets came back.
And bogosian is no more injury prone then enstrom

 

[Duke749]

Then who is the best d man? Neither buff nor Toby have played a full season since the Jets came back.
And bogosian is no more injury prone then enstrom

At any given time, one of the three is our best defenseman but Buff has been inconsistent since he went to D, Bogo has been up and down his whole career so far, and since the move, Enstrom has been up and down too.

I don't think anyone is saying Bogosian is anymore injury prone then Enstrom.

 

[Jet]

At any given time, one of the three is our best defenseman but Buff has been inconsistent since he went to D, Bogo has been up and down his whole career so far, and since the move, Enstrom has been up and down too.

I don't think anyone is saying Bogosian is anymore injury prone then Enstrom.

I would not characterize Bogosian's career as up and down. He started on a high as a rookie, slumped against expectations when in Atlanta somewhat and since being in Winnipeg has steadily improved since he's been here (despite some work-throughs with injury).

IMHO he is the best DEFENSEMAN to put on the Jets 2.0 jersey. I'm not talking points here. I'm talking best, all round, most consistent, best in his own zone, you know, defending, defenseman.

For a 23 year old to do that AND have 5 years of NHL experience to boot? That is a pretty nice accomplishment.

I guess we will have to see what the Jets give him in term and $$$, debate that for a few years, and then see how it comes out in the wash I'll take my assessment to the bank.

 

[surixon]

My problem (and most likely Zach's camps) with this is that while the first couple years are fair value, the last 2 will most likely be very under. Hence you pay a little more now and save some later.

The benefit to this as well is that if we are in a position to contend in 3 or 4 years, Zach's cap hit wont be so prohibitive that we can't go shopping to fill out our roster.

My question is don't you think McDonaugh and Hamonic's agents did the exact same thing when sitting down with the GM's of both the Rangers and Islanders? Why is it that those players were able to come to long term deals under 5 Mil but Bogosian's camp will come in closer to 6? I would agree that Bogosian might have higher upside then McDanaugh and Hamonic but it imo it isn't 1.3 and 2.3 million more respectively. He also hasn't proven he is worth as much as OEL who signed his deal when the cap was higher. I really think a 6 year 30 to 31.5 million deal is more than fair for what he has proven to date while also accounting for untapped potential.

 

[sully1410]

I would not characterize Bogosian's career as up and down. He started on a high as a rookie, slumped against expectations when in Atlanta somewhat and since being in Winnipeg has steadily improved since he's been here (despite some work-throughs with injury).

IMHO he is the best DEFENSEMAN to put on the Jets 2.0 jersey. I'm not talking points here. I'm talking best, all round, most consistent, best in his own zone, you know, defending, defenseman.

For a 23 year old to do that AND have 5 years of NHL experience to boot? That is a pretty nice accomplishment.

I guess we will have to see what the Jets give him in term and $$$, debate that for a few years, and then see how it comes out in the wash I'll take my assessment to the bank.

But is that worth 6mil dollars to NHL GMs? A similar guy, without the offensive upside, is Ladi Smid and he signed for 3.5/yr in Edmonton. He's exceptional in his own end, yet by your standards makes 2.5mil less then Bogo?

Same thing with Pavs last season. We were all praising him as the second coming when he ha one good month, I personally think he'll figure it out, but received a contract that went up a he presumably earned more money.

Now, Im not saying that Bogo doesn't deserve more money then Smid, but I don't he deserves almost double.

While Bogo has been impressive thus far...as a pretend GM I would not want to offer him that much money right off the hop. I personally believe that to be incredibly short sighted and setting yourself up for failure.

I mean 6 is alot. Way too much for the way he plays now, and your willing to base that much money on how he MAY play later?

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Heh, I don't think I've made a single prediction on salaries this off-season.

6 years/$29.7M (4.95 AAV). At this point, I can't see how Bogosian's camp can make a case for over $5.0M when you look at what McDonagh got paid this off-season. They have similar production at even strength, they both play hard minutes, McDonagh does a better job possession-wise, Bogo can play the PP and probably has a slightly higher offensive ceiling.

 

[Duke749]

I would not characterize Bogosian's career as up and down. He started on a high as a rookie, slumped against expectations when in Atlanta somewhat and since being in Winnipeg has steadily improved since he's been here (despite some work-throughs with injury).

IMHO he is the best DEFENSEMAN to put on the Jets 2.0 jersey. I'm not talking points here. I'm talking best, all round, most consistent, best in his own zone, you know, defending, defenseman.

For a 23 year old to do that AND have 5 years of NHL experience to boot? That is a pretty nice accomplishment.

I guess we will have to see what the Jets give him in term and $$$, debate that for a few years, and then see how it comes out in the wash I'll take my assessment to the bank.

Rookie year, played well, but got injured and missed almost half the year.

Torchetti comes in, and Bogo's play is up and down like a roller coaster while missing some time as well.

First year in the Peg, played well, but missed a little time.

This past season wasn't quite up to par from the year before and missed the start thanks to the same injury.

Seems pretty up and down to me. His play overall has been more consistent since getting under Huddy, but he's still missed time due to injury. And I was a little disappointed by him this season. Was not nearly as good as the year before.

I wasn't talking about points either. But there is also more to a defenseman then just playing defense. There is A LOT that goes into being a defenseman. And I don't think this past season he was nearly as much as a standout as the first year. We need better play from him and Enstrom and Buff as well. Health has been an issue for our top 3 D the last two seasons. Needs to stop.

It's almost like people want him to be good so badly that opinions of him are typically higher then what the results might show. Kinda like "perception is reality".

Not sure why his experience and age have much to do with his past play. It bodes well for the future, but doesn't say much about his past play, which is more what we're discussing.

 

[Channelcat]

Right now he's 2nd or 3rd D on the Jets maybe a 4th on better teams. So what is that worth? The range is huge.......any where from 800,000 to 5M. You can make the argument that he's got potential to be a great player, but you can say that about most young players. Personally i believe that jet fans are over valuing Bogo and if they think he's a future Norris candidate......that might even be grossly over estimating his potential.

 

[Flair Hay]

Agreed. IMO Chevy will roll the dice on Bogo and sign him 6-8 years $5.5 - $6.0 M AAV. Bogo is just too important to our future and Chevy has to trust he will keep developing. Can't risk a short term signing and risk losing him in his prime.

Some people act like the extra 1/2 m or so is going to come out of their pocket. IMO after Bogo signs that is it for this year unless they make a trade. Does it really matter if we are $2 M or $1.5 under the cap? Next year the cap is likely going up 6-7% and Joker comes off the books. Our team will mostly be signed except for Setiguchi and a couple others and we will likely have $ 10-12 M in room.

EVERY veteran players' worth is tied to his cap hit. Bogosian at $6.0M is a lesser "asset" vs Bogosian at $5.25M. That said, typically the only way to get players to sign hometown discounts is no trade clauses. Good thing is Chevy seems to know paying the extra dough is probably a smarter strategy should circumstances change. So I agree and disagree Brogosian heh.

 

[gibber1600]

Heh, I don't think I've made a single prediction on salaries this off-season.

6 years/$29.7M (4.95 AAV). At this point, I can't see how Bogosian's camp can make a case for over $5.0M when you look at what McDonagh got paid this off-season. They have similar production at even strength, they both play hard minutes, McDonagh does a better job possession-wise, Bogo can play the PP and probably has a slightly higher offensive ceiling.

Yep!

 

[Becel]

I was curious to see the recent market on young defensemen in the NHL (age 22-26). I compiled a list of players who have recently signed contracts (2011-13) in the neighborhood of where Bogosian is expected to go ($4M-$6M). Most discussion on Little's and Wheeler's contracts is based on UFA years purchased and rightfully so. I am happy with the contracts and that they will be part of the franchise for the foreseeable future. I am a big fan of Bogosian I would love to see him here long term as well.

Some of the discussion has had predictions of $6M cap hits, some $5.5M, others around $5M. To me $6M is crazy, this is money for guys who have proven to be Norris candidates year after year - don't get me wrong I want to see Bogo in this category, but he hasn't shown this yet.

$5.5M - Myers, Larsson - I wouldn't be upset with that at all.

I place his value based on other contracts closer to $5M mark - Johnson, Yandle and Mcdonagh would be comparables in this range.

I found it interesting that so many of these guys hit it big on the 2nd contract. Really only Yandle, Johnson and Vlasic are on their 3rd contracts like Bogosian.

Zach Bogosian Comparable Dmen

Player|Length|Cap Hit|Age|Contract #|UFA years bought
Drew Doughty|8|$7,000,000|23|2|4
Erik Karlsson|7|$6,500,000|23|2|3
Tyler Myers|7|$5,500,000|23|2|3
Oliver Ekman Larsson|6|$5,500,000|22|2|2
Keith Yandle|5|$5,250,000|26|3|3
Ryan Mcdonagh|6|$4,700,000|24|2|2
Jack Johnson|7|$4,357,143|26|3|5
Kevin Shattenkirk|4|$4,250,000|24|2|0
Marc-Edouard Vlasic|5|$4,250,000|26|3|5
Slava Voynov|6|$4,166,667|23|2|2
Marc Staal|5|$3,975,000|26|2|1
Travis Hamonic|7|$3,857,143|22|2|3
Erik Johnson|4|$3,750,000|25|3|2
Luke Schenn|5|$3,600,000|23|2|1
Niklas Hjalmarsson|5|$3,500,000|26|2|0

 

[Positive]

Hmm, I'll say 5.4 for 6 years is my guess. I'm also in the camp that says 6+ is too much based on what he has proven so far.

 

[Unholy goalie]

We keep talking about the term as being very likely in the 5+ years range. Just a crazy thought here but what if TNSE tries to negotiate with a bridge contract a la Subban, with a lower AAV but padded with bonuses. If he continues his progression and realizes some of that potential then he gets his payday. The mutual commitment on the part of the Jets and Bogosian to him being here long term might guard against him walking away afterward.

 

[Jet]

At the end of the day I am a Zach Bogosian fanboy so I should probably defer to others. Good thing for the Jets I'm not the GM

 

[Grind]

I was curious to see the recent market on young defensemen in the NHL (age 22-26). I compiled a list of players who have recently signed contracts (2011-13) in the neighborhood of where Bogosian is expected to go ($4M-$6M). Most discussion on Little's and Wheeler's contracts is based on UFA years purchased and rightfully so. I am happy with the contracts and that they will be part of the franchise for the foreseeable future. I am a big fan of Bogosian I would love to see him here long term as well.

Some of the discussion has had predictions of $6M cap hits, some $5.5M, others around $5M. To me $6M is crazy, this is money for guys who have proven to be Norris candidates year after year - don't get me wrong I want to see Bogo in this category, but he hasn't shown this yet.

$5.5M - Myers, Larsson - I wouldn't be upset with that at all.

I place his value based on other contracts closer to $5M mark - Johnson, Yandle and Mcdonagh would be comparables in this range.

I found it interesting that so many of these guys hit it big on the 2nd contract. Really only Yandle, Johnson and Vlasic are on their 3rd contracts like Bogosian.

Zach Bogosian Comparable Dmen

Player|Length|Cap Hit|Age|Contract #|UFA years bought
Drew Doughty|8|$7,000,000|23|2|4
Erik Karlsson|7|$6,500,000|23|2|3
Tyler Myers|7|$5,500,000|23|2|3
Oliver Ekman Larsson|6|$5,500,000|22|2|2
Keith Yandle|5|$5,250,000|26|3|3
Ryan Mcdonagh|6|$4,700,000|24|2|2
Jack Johnson|7|$4,357,143|26|3|5
Kevin Shattenkirk|4|$4,250,000|24|2|0
Marc-Edouard Vlasic|5|$4,250,000|26|3|5
Slava Voynov|6|$4,166,667|23|2|2
Marc Staal|5|$3,975,000|26|2|1
Travis Hamonic|7|$3,857,143|22|2|3
Erik Johnson|4|$3,750,000|25|3|2
Luke Schenn|5|$3,600,000|23|2|1
Niklas Hjalmarsson|5|$3,500,000|26|2|0

that's a good ist.

We all love zach, but realistically he hasn't rally achieved what Doughty nor Karllson had when they signed there contracts.

6 mil is too much.

I would hope he would come in at or under 5.5,I will "stomach" 5.8, but at 6 media are going to say we got hosed and unles he turns it on big, right away, they're going to be right.


I love zach, i get that he's probably the teams franchise d man. But you can't in good concience pay him much more then 4.5 for what he's done to date (so i'd argue the first 2-3 years of the contract), otherwise your paying waaay WAAAY too much on potential, and we don't even know for sure if he'll ever be a "6 plus" type defender. For the AAV to get over 6 we're either a) way overpaying him in the first coouple years or b) really hoping he's a norrise candidate/winner in the expensive years (cus he'll be paid like one)

 

[Becel]

We keep talking about the term as being very likely in the 5+ years range. Just a crazy thought here but what if TNSE tries to negotiate with a bridge contract a la Subban, with a lower AAV but padded with bonuses. If he continues his progression and realizes some of that potential then he gets his payday. The mutual commitment on the part of the Jets and Bogosian to him being here long term might guard against him walking away afterward.

TNSE is one step ahead of you. Bogosian just finished his 2 year bridge contract a la Subban. It was a 2 year deal for a less than $3M. He becomes a UFA in 2 years.