Speculation: Yzerman's strategy

[norrisnick]

Who are these players? UFA class isnt very impressive this year.

They may be signed currently. A lot of the top end teams are way beyond $10M over the cap due to LTIR and retention and other nonsense. If a team likes their shiny new toy more than someone they already had. That existing guy will have to be moved. Enter team with cap space.

Crazy scenario time, but one that's plausible.

Imagine the Leafs crash out early again.

They can score, but they can't defend because while they have a million D they don't have a true top end stopper.
They liked what they saw out of Marner/Nylander in the absence of Matthews being lights out for most of the year.
They know they can't keep all their $10M+ forwards.
They move Matthews who is a pending UFA looking to cash in, so they can pick up say... Parayko.
The Wings have the assets to make a big bid.
Granted... in division is tricky but that's just an example.

Same thing could apply to say Edmonton and Draisaitl...

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

To the OP I don't see what Boston did as a mistake. Who would've thought they'd have a season like this?

Bergeron is 37, Krejci is 36, Marchand is 34. Ullmark is playing great. Time to go all in.

I wish Holland had mortgaged the future to make one last big push while Lidstrom was still on the team rather than making tiny bad moves year by year just to make the playoffs.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

Honestly I'd bet his plan didn't change too much based on that hot streak and then two blowout losses. At least I hope the GM isn't making decisions based on the roller coaster of emotions we all ride here.

Earlier this season we were celebrating that the Wings were gonna make the playoffs, shortly after that it was "oh no it was just an easy schedule! we suck again burn it to the ground," now we're back to "we're gonna make the playoffs!!!"

Through all of that what didn't change is the lack of top end talent on the roster. Hronek was really the only surprise move here. Negotiations with Bertuzzi had stalled so the Wings were likely going to lose him for nothing this summer. They signed Walman who has been a great surprise and locked up Larkin.

To me it's all still been incremental steps, which I think Yzerman will continue with and then make a bold move or two when the opportunity is there.

With Bert and Hronek there's some holes to fill for sure. It should be an interesting summer.

I think those two games at Ottawa went a long way in determining whether he would be buying or selling. I agree, the decision likely wasn't born purely out of emotion, though I'm sure he had a high level of frustration. But the wings showed everyone in those two games that they are not a playoff team and the GM acted accordingly.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I think those two games at Ottawa went a long way in determining whether he would be buying or selling. I agree, the decision likely wasn't born purely out of emotion, though I'm sure he had a high level of frustration. But the wings showed everyone in those two games that they are not a playoff team and the GM acted accordingly.

I could see it making him maybe take a pause on something like moving Hronek, but the underlying issues were still the same.

The Ottawa losses just made the PR for the decisions easier.

 

[jaster]

Honestly I'd bet his plan didn't change too much based on that hot streak and then two blowout losses. At least I hope the GM isn't making decisions based on the roller coaster of emotions we all ride here.

If the Ottawa games had swung the other way (both in score and dominating instead of being nominated), I think the Hronek trade doesn't happen at the deadline (maybe in the off-season instead). And there would be no emotion involved there, it'd simply be based on calculating our playoff odds. Had we dominated the Sens, this team would have shown they're ready to compete on that stage, and so I don't think there's any way Yzerman could have knee-capped the team and traded Hronek under those circumstances. As I said after the first Ottawa game though, the team just made it real easy on Yzerman in terms of which direction to go. They folded in embarrassing fashion and sent a very clear message.

EDIT: sorry, didn't see the last few posts, I see this was already discussed lol.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

They may be signed currently. A lot of the top end teams are way beyond $10M over the cap due to LTIR and retention and other nonsense. If a team likes their shiny new toy more than someone they already had. That existing guy will have to be moved. Enter team with cap space.

Crazy scenario time, but one that's plausible.

Imagine the Leafs crash out early again.

They can score, but they can't defend because while they have a million D they don't have a true top end stopper.
They liked what they saw out of Marner/Nylander in the absence of Matthews being lights out for most of the year.
They know they can't keep all their $10M+ forwards.
They move Matthews who is a pending UFA looking to cash in, so they can pick up say... Parayko.
The Wings have the assets to make a big bid.
Granted... in division is tricky but that's just an example.

Same thing could apply to say Edmonton and Draisaitl...

Don't give me Draisaitl hope.

 

[Claypool]

We are actually worse than a year ago. I’m starting to wonder what the plan is. Bad move after bad move

There was the opportunity to try and get Wright and Bedard in back to back drafts, but the team never committed to tanking.

Chicago is doing it right and will be back fo contender status before Detroit.

 

[Ricelund]

There was the opportunity to try and get Wright and Bedard in back to back drafts, but the team never committed to tanking.

Chicago is doing it right and will be back fo contender status before Detroit.

Committing to tanking is not a sure thing. Look at Arizona, Edmonton, Buffalo, Toronto, etc.

The Wings went through a tank and it didn't pay off.

You're welcome to go root for Chicago.

 

[WaW]

I read these comments and sometimes think I'm just not idealistic enough for HFBoards lol.

Here's the pragmatic view: teams don't win cups anymore without a top 10 centre in the league. A bona-fide #1 franchise centre.

You only usually get those with lottery picks, or if one falls into your lap at the right time like St Louis with ROR. No one in the cap era has won a cup without one. LA managed to find one who fell down later into the top 10 in Kopitar (very rare), and Washington got super lucky winning in what was probably the last season that Backstrom was arguably in that company, and they also had the most elite winger possibly of all time.

It sucks to not make the playoffs, I get it...but aspiring to be the 2015-2019 Columbus Blue Jackets is WAYYYYY worse. And that's exactly what we'd become if the franchise goals were to just make the playoffs, and pretend we won the cup if we so much as won a round.

No one is trading the Bedard pick, but maybe we have enough now to trade up to #2 and take Fantilli. Who knows, Im just spitballing...but at least with a player like that, you can take a reasonable gamble on thinking he'll become that franchise 1C you need to build a cup winner around and feel good about exiting the rebuild. We need that kind of splash.

Until we get to that point where you have a #1C good enough to be the centerpiece on a cup winner, everything kinda feels hopeless because you can absolutely see the ceiling, and the ceiling is absolutely not winning a Cup.

Lottery luck seems to be everything nowadays and it's just infuriating as a fan. Ottawa jumping us and picking 3rd a few years back and getting Stutzle instead of Raymond (and I love Raymond, don't get me wrong) is the difference between a team that can exit a rebuild with the necessary core piece to potentially push for a cup, and a team that can't reasonably have those aspirations.

The media would never tell you about this because hockey isn't in a place where it can disappoint its fanbase and raise barriers for new fans to get invested, but having a top 1C in this league is legitimately more important than having a top QB in the NFL in terms of winning a championship. We've at least seen a handful of teams win Super Bowls in that same span with non-elite QBs. Same can't be said in hockey with 1Cs

 

[SirloinUB]

There was the opportunity to try and get Wright and Bedard in back to back drafts, but the team never committed to tanking.

Chicago is doing it right and will be back fo contender status before Detroit.

Oh man, do you not remember last season? The only way they could have tanked harder was by keeping Raymond and Seider off the roster. Subsequently this season, they would have again been to good to contend for bottom 2 or 3. What an out of touch take.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Stevie seems to be sitting back, laughing, and even helping his adversaries destroy their future for today. Boston, Florida, Ottawa and Carolina are depleting their draft pick stocks and setting themselves up for a decade of cap hell. Meanwhile, the Wings are setting up well to take advantage of it.

Boston: Aging core, and a massive contract to Pasta. Pissed away draft capital. They dont need Bert to win the Cup this year.

Ottawa, TB, Carolina, NYR, NJ all depleting draft capital for rentals and expensive core pieces.

Detroit and Buffalo will rule the division in 4-5 years.

Boston absolutely needs Bertuzzi after Foligno and Hall have gone down.

 

[Claypool]

Oh man, do you not remember last season? The only way they could have tanked harder was by keeping Raymond and Seider off the roster. Subsequently this season, they would have again been to good to contend for bottom 2 or 3. What an out of touch take.

Ok so your plan is to draft superstars 10th overall? That is an actual out of touch take.

 

[jkutswings]

Chicago is doing it right and will be back fo contender status before Detroit.

Care to wager? I'd bet that Detroit wins a playoff series before Chicago even makes the playoffs again.

 

[SirloinUB]

Ok so your plan is to draft superstars 10th overall? That is an actual out of touch take.

I'm just saying, lets be realistic about what the options are. Truly being at the bottom of the standings would have required removing guys we currently consider part of the core (Seider/Raymond).

 

[TheOctopusKid]

This thread feels like we're going gradually steer to the oldies but goodies:

We have started with the ever popular "We Suck! Embrace the Tank! Look at <insert team>, the did it!" which will be followed by the "There's No Guarantees! Look at <insert team>"

This should logically call up the "We've sucked for <insert seasons> and have no super stars because <insert GM/FO/Owner> is terrible!" which will call up the "That's because the lotto screwed us!" OR "We have <insert prospects>"

This would most likely result in the "Our players aren't elite! This is what an elite players look like <insert literally any generational 1:2 combo of talent>"

This is where it gets fun because around this point we could end up back in the Tank/Draft Talent Debate or we take a hard right into "We need to sign elite players!" OR "We need to trade for elite players!" ... or sometimes we end up branching into ALL three simultaneously!

 

[jaster]

Chicago's doing it right.

 

[better Red than Dead]

I think with the 26 picks or whatever it is between 23 and 24, including 4 first rd picks between the two, and with 8 of the top 100 prospects and a shit ton of cap space, I would expect Yzerman to be aggressive on the trade market this summer. Especially with the free agency class much weaker than last year

 

[Run the Jewels]

You develop your prospects and see which ones are keepers and which ones can be traded. This isn't some great mystery. The only question in my mind is whether we use all those draft picks to draft players or we package some to fill in needs.

The two most glaring needs are a 1C - tough to acquire - and a top 4 defensive d-man which should not be difficult to acquire if not draft.

 

[LeftWingLocked]

You can't actually believe that... In terms of talent, coaching and assets we have improved on all of those areas compared to last year.

We just dumped Bertuzzi, Vrana, Hronek this week. Zadina is good as gone. There is no way you can say we are better.

 

[Snuggs]

Idk what Yzermans plan is right now other than to hopefully draft his way out of the bottom.

I can't help but get a weird feeling we're sharks in the water now too with any Barkov situation that might or might not ever happen in Florida with the Panthers. May come down to keeping Barkov/Tkachuck and I think it'll be Tkachuck for marketing purposes mostly but also cause he's good and younger.

 

[wingfan]

We just dumped Bertuzzi, Vrana, Hronek this week. Zadina is good as gone. There is no way you can say we are better.

That core wasn't going to get it done in this division, regardless. Yzerman knew this. Bert was playing hardball, Vrana clearly had issues and fell out of favor, and we sold really high on Hronek. Zadina is a reclamation project at best for another team. If he ever manages to put up more than 40 points in a full NHL season I'd be very very shocked.

 

[SirloinUB]

Idk what Yzermans plan is right now other than to hopefully draft his way out of the bottom.

I can't help but get a weird feeling we're sharks in the water now too with any Barkov situation that might or might not ever happen in Florida with the Panthers. May come down to keeping Barkov/Tkachuck and I think it'll be Tkachuck for marketing purposes mostly but also cause he's good and younger.

Neither Barkov nor Tkachuk are getting traded.

 

[saska sault]

To the OP I don't see what Boston did as a mistake. Who would've thought they'd have a season like this?

Bergeron is 37, Krejci is 36, Marchand is 34. Ullmark is playing great. Time to go all in.

I wish Holland had mortgaged the future to make one last big push while Lidstrom was still on the team rather than making tiny bad moves year by year just to make the playoffs.

Exactly, could have moved guys like Helm, Smith, Oulette etc when they were prospects... Sold the farm and went for it and do a proper rebuild. That was never in the cards but hind sight would have been better.

 

[Frk It]

I read these comments and sometimes think I'm just not idealistic enough for HFBoards lol.

Here's the pragmatic view: teams don't win cups anymore without a top 10 centre in the league. A bona-fide #1 franchise centre.

You only usually get those with lottery picks, or if one falls into your lap at the right time like St Louis with ROR. No one in the cap era has won a cup without one. LA managed to find one who fell down later into the top 10 in Kopitar (very rare), and Washington got super lucky winning in what was probably the last season that Backstrom was arguably in that company, and they also had the most elite winger possibly of all time.

It sucks to not make the playoffs, I get it...but aspiring to be the 2015-2019 Columbus Blue Jackets is WAYYYYY worse. And that's exactly what we'd become if the franchise goals were to just make the playoffs, and pretend we won the cup if we so much as won a round.

No one is trading the Bedard pick, but maybe we have enough now to trade up to #2 and take Fantilli. Who knows, Im just spitballing...but at least with a player like that, you can take a reasonable gamble on thinking he'll become that franchise 1C you need to build a cup winner around and feel good about exiting the rebuild. We need that kind of splash.

Until we get to that point where you have a #1C good enough to be the centerpiece on a cup winner, everything kinda feels hopeless because you can absolutely see the ceiling, and the ceiling is absolutely not winning a Cup.

Lottery luck seems to be everything nowadays and it's just infuriating as a fan. Ottawa jumping us and picking 3rd a few years back and getting Stutzle instead of Raymond (and I love Raymond, don't get me wrong) is the difference between a team that can exit a rebuild with the necessary core piece to potentially push for a cup, and a team that can't reasonably have those aspirations.

The media would never tell you about this because hockey isn't in a place where it can disappoint its fanbase and raise barriers for new fans to get invested, but having a top 1C in this league is legitimately more important than having a top QB in the NFL in terms of winning a championship. We've at least seen a handful of teams win Super Bowls in that same span with non-elite QBs. Same can't be said in hockey with 1Cs

ROR was not a top 10 center at any point in time.

Boston won the cup in 2010-2011. Here is ranking of the top 20 centers from 2011. Bergeron isn't even on the list.

NHL Rankings: The Top 20 NHL Centers

Each position in hockey has an important place in the game, but no position is quite as prestigious as center. Every team is looking for a star center, and any team who wants to compete is going to need one...

bleacherreport.com

 

[Chad Smiley]

Haven't made the playoffs since 2016 and are still a monumental leap from winning the Cup. The Wings still haven't figured out that tanking is the way to rebuiild.