Speculation: Yzerman's first move.

[The Zermanator]

That is fine if that is the only reason you want Trouba, but most of you seem to want to make a big splash, so why not spend more, and get someone better than Trouba? With Trouba right now, we maybe add a couple of wins to our total, so why not wait. There are going to be more free agent defenders in the future, and there will be more defenders that become available, it isn't like Trouba is the key to success here. People are way overdoing how good he is!

My answer to this is beggars can't be choosers. Considering the state of our defence the last 8 years, we don't have the luxury of turning our noses up at a player like Trouba because he's 'not good enough'.

As for the bolded, I've touched on this a few times. First of all, it's far from a guarantee that Trouba ever sees UFA. Karlsson is the first major dman to hit FA since Suter in 2012. The names of available defenders in the years between include Niskanen, Stralman, Green, etc. All good players no doubt, but not top pairing guys, let alone #1s. The truth is they are not available often, they are so valuable that they are almost always locked down at the first opportunity. Doing nothing and praying that someone becomes available is a huge gamble. Not only does a #1 have to make it to FA which is very rare, but then they also have to choose us specifically.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Please quote where I said 'if we haven't then we can't'. You're moving goalposts now.

Sure, we could draft and develop a #1. But you're banking on something happening that this organization has not accomplished in 20 years now. It's optimistic to the point of delusion. Equating that to trading an asset for an asset is ridiculously baseless. Drafting and developing elite talent outside of lottery picks is hard, extremely hard. Even if we focus on drafting D like you suggest, it'll still be 5-7 years before we even know what we have. And what if it doesn't pan out after those 5-7 years? Larkin will be close to entering his 30s and we will have made no meaningful progress. We've just had one 'lost decade' for the Wings, I don't want another one.

Oh so when you said smugly "just do the thing they haven't been able to do in 20 years why didnt I think of that" what you meant was that we should just stick to what we have been able to do over the last 20 years only?

Is that what you mean?

No context no nothing?

Detroit hasent been sable to trade for a 25 year old "#1dman" either anytime in the last 20 years, why should we be optimistic we can reasonably do so now?

As for drafting one, yes I believe we can. Why? Because we're drafting top 5 or 6 with more picks now then we ever had and no pressure to maintain a streak or expectation of winning it all next season.

 

[The Zermanator]

Oh so when you said smugly "just do the thing they haven't been able to do in 20 years why didnt I think of that" what you meant was that we should just stick to what we have been able to do over the last 20 years only?

You're right, my tone could have been better there, my apologies. But your plan hinging on succeeding at something they've been trying and failing to do for 20 years is a fatal flaw, IMO.

Detroit hasent been sable to trade for a 25 year old "#1dman" either anytime in the last 20 years, why should we be optimistic we can reasonably do so now?

Again, you're drawing a false equivalence between drafting and trading. The Wings have been participating in the draft every single year. They haven't been trying to trade for a #1 dman. When Lidstrom was around, they didn't need one. Once he retired the only assets we had that could have gotten a #1 were Datsyuk and Zetterberg, and no way that was happening. They've consistently failed at drafting, but have never earnestly pursued this type of trade because it wasn't a possibility. The only serious and realistic attempt they've made is trying to sign Suter. Which is ironically the perfect situation to illustrate the risk of letting Trouba reach free agency and hoping for the best.

The reason for optimism now is that we have the assets to trade for a Trouba-type, when before we didn't.

As for drafting one, yes I believe we can. Why? Because we're drafting top 5 or 6 with more picks now then we ever had and no pressure to maintain a streak or expectation of winning it all next season.

A player has to be there for us to draft him. Byram this year is a perfect example. Yeah we have a high pick but the dman with the highest potential is likely gone by the time we do. Same thing could easily happen next year, in fact I'd say it's likely. Far more forwards get picked in the top 10 than dmen.

So again the issue of timeline pops up. Even if the stars align perfectly, and we pick a dman next year with our top pick, it'll be years before he's ready for the responsibility of the top spot. With no guarantee of him ever reaching it. And if it doesn't pan out they're caught with their pants down with no options. At that point we can all have a fun discussion about trading Larkin/AA/Mantha/etc as we pursue a new rebuild.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

You're right, my tone could have been better there, my apologies. But your plan hinging on succeeding at something they've been trying and failing to do for 20 years is a fatal flaw, IMO.



Again, you're drawing a false equivalence between drafting and trading. The Wings have been participating in the draft every single year. They haven't been trying to trade for a #1 dman. When Lidstrom was around, they didn't need one. Once he retired the only assets we had that could have gotten a #1 were Datsyuk and Zetterberg, and no way that was happening. They've continually failed at trading, and have never earnestly pursued this type of trade because it wasn't a possibility. The only serious and realistic attempt they've made is trying to sign Suter. Which is ironically the perfect situation to illustrate the risk of letting Trouba reach free agency and hoping for the best.

The reason for optimism now is that we have the assets to trade for a Trouba-type, when before we didn't.



A player has to be there for us to draft him. Byram this year is a perfect example. Yeah we have a high pick but the dman with the highest potential likely gone by the time we do. Same thing could easily happen next year, in fact I'd say it's likely. Far more forwards get picked in the top 10 than dmen.

So again the issue of timeline pops up. So even if the stars align perfectly, and we pick a dman next year with our top pick, it'll be years before he's ready for the responsibility of the top spot. With no guarantee of him ever reaching it.

I accept what you're saying but part of the reason in my opinion why we didnt or couldnt have traded for such a player is simply we lacked the assets. And the reason had alot to do with where we were drafting when we actually did by and large and our focus on winning and not developing.

But now the paradigm has shifted and time and availability or probability I guess is a better choice of word to draft one is on our side. Moreover, I cant imagine that we will never ever draft one on our own ever again. I believe our luck or skill will change.

But i guess our biggest difference of opinion is;
- I dont particularly care for nor respect Trouba
- I dont think he is as good as some others believe
- I don't think we're ready to compete now or deep enough yet to move out young good assets

 

[Oddbob]

This was an all time bad post when it comes to shoving words down someone's throats. The Trouba-Michigan connection is an unsubstantiated narrative based on pure coincidence. I take Provorov or Werenski over Trouba every single day of the week, but until you can show me a single piece of evidence that they might be available via trade, your entire point is complete and utter nonsense. While we are at it, why don't we trade for Dahlin and Chabot and Dunn and Sergachev?

Can't buy what isn't for sale. Can't buy a million dollar home with monopoly money. Trouba is available, and he won't cost our first born children.

PLEASE OH PLEASE show me where I put words into anyones mouth? Also laughable, the suggestion that of all the many many posts this forum has ever seen, that this one is ALL TIME BAD POSTS! Embarrassing!

 

[obey86]

Yes, drafting and developing.

We're bad and we're gonna be bad for the next 2-4 years during which time we should and will continue to add picks and draft high in each round.

We hopefully will use as many picks as possible on skilled dmen and then create a better system and enviroment to develop them. I believe we will reverse the trend of the DRW being a dumpster fire when it comes to identifying and developing blue liners.

By such time, 2-4 years from now we can then start to dip our toes into the trade market more aggressively to subplant what we dont have as we will be doing so from a much better position of strength and yes such dmen will be available.

IF in the meantime a good dman hits free agency, wants to play here, fits our needs, timelines and cap then I 100% support chasing after and signing him.

If the Red Wings are bad for 4 more years it means the rebuild failed and the large majority of Hronek, Cholowski, Zadina, #6 pick, Rasmussen, AA, Mantha, Bertuzzi, etc were busts or didn’t improve at all.

 

[Ezekial]

I look at this team and I have a hard time believing they'll be worse next year. Maybe that's just me.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

If the Red Wings are bad for 4 more years it means the rebuild failed and the large majority of Hronek, Cholowski, Zadina, #6 pick, Rasmussen, AA, Mantha, Bertuzzi, etc were busts or didn’t improve at all.

How many years after yzerman, lidstrom and federov were drafted did it take for the red wings to be a legit cup contender?

And remember how good those three were/turned out to be and it still took years or a decade plus

People keep thinking that if Larkins name isnt on the cup by 2021 then we might as well trade him for a pick because it wont ever be.

I dont think Dylan is going to experience substantial playoff success until he is 27 or 28 years old at best.

 

[The Zermanator]

I look at this team and I have a hard time believing they'll be worse next year. Maybe that's just me.

Yeah I think we're really close to turning the corner just with what we have in the system. We'll be adding another top pick this year and probably another 1-2 top 15 picks in the next couple years. But realistically I think we're 2 years away from challenging for the playoffs, in the 2020/21 season. So IMO now is the time to be proactive in improving the team, rather than continue passively waiting for the team to improve through the draft. We've got the bulk of our core already in place for this generation, it's time to supplement them in the areas we are deficient. By all means keep drafting and developing and hope for some luck but we're getting to a point where we'll need more than intangibles like potential. With two elite/borderline elite dmen available this year and next, we need to capitalize on that opportunity. Ideally both.

 

[The Zermanator]

How many years after yzerman, lidstrom and federov were drafted did it take for the red wings to be a legit cup contender?

And remember how good those three were/turned out to be and it still took years or a decade plus

People keep thinking that if Larkins name isnt on the cup by 2021 then we might as well trade him for a pick because it wont ever be.

I dont think Dylan is going to experience substantial playoff success until he is 27 or 28 years old at best.

How many current Red Wings are top 30 players all-time? The circumstances now are completely different than they were in the 1990s.

 

[Hen Kolland]

PLEASE OH PLEASE show me where I put words into anyones mouth? Also laughable, the suggestion that of all the many many posts this forum has ever seen, that this one is ALL TIME BAD POSTS! Embarrassing!

I’m off my computer for the day, and my phone isn’t exactly made for this, but the post where you insisted that Werenski and Provorov were being ignored in favor of Trouba, specifically because he’s from Michigan. Suggesting that some people were placing Trouba on a pedestal because of his hometown and discrediting other defensemen. That no other options were considered because they weren’t from Michigan.

Don’t you think Werenski is a good example of people NOT having a Michigan bias? After all, he grew up a die hard Wings fan from Grosse Pointe and is extremely close friends with Larkin.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

How many current Red Wings are top 30 players all-time? The circumstances now are completely different than they were in the 1990s.

My point was simple...

It takes time and patience and dosent happen overnight.

And I am sorry but the formula for success is still the same, all that's changed is your ability to buy such players and then stack your team with half a dozen HoFers.

We dont have a single proven elite player anywhere on this team, nor substantial high end depth yet. We're at the beginning of this rebuild not the end

 

[The Zermanator]

My point was simple...

It takes time and patience and dosent happen overnight.

But you're right, even with such players it takes time. I agree with you.

And I am sorry but the formula for success is still the same, all that's changed is your ability to buy such players and then stack your team with half a dozen HoFers.

Sometimes it doesn't happen at all though, that's been the case for us and several other teams as well. I mean we're heading into a 20 year streak of not drafting and developing a #1 so I don't share your confidence that we will conveniently draft that player in the next 3-5 years.

No one is suggesting to stop attempting to draft and develop but Trouba doesn't even threaten that as we're not giving up a high 1st. If we give up a pick it'll be a 2nd at most (and we have several) and the odds of a 2nd becoming a #1D are incredibly slim.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Sometimes it doesn't happen at all though, that's been the case for us and several other teams as well. I mean we're on the tail end of a 20 year run of not drafting and developing a #1 so I don't share your confidence that we will conveniently draft that player in the next 3-5 years.

No one is suggesting to stop attempting to draft and develop but Trouba doesn't even threaten that as we're not giving up a high 1st. If we give up a pick it'll be a 2nd at most (and we have several) and the odds of a 2nd becoming a #1D are incredibly slim.

Ok if ALL we give is a 2nd( and I dont care which of our 3) plus a prospect like Bergrren and then he signs here at a reasonable cap hit right away I will eat my words, apologize and say I was wrong.

 

[obey86]

How many years after yzerman, lidstrom and federov were drafted did it take for the red wings to be a legit cup contender?

And remember how good those three were/turned out to be and it still took years or a decade plus

People keep thinking that if Larkins name isnt on the cup by 2021 then we might as well trade him for a pick because it wont ever be.

I dont think Dylan is going to experience substantial playoff success until he is 27 or 28 years old at best.

There's a very large difference between being bad and not being a legit cup contender. You said they would likely be bad for 2-4 more years - you didn't mention anything about cup contention.

If the majority of the young players/prospects can develop well, the team should be on the playoff bubble during the 2020-2021 season. I don't consider that "bad" personally, but it's possible we have different definitions of what bad means.

Think about it, our 20-21 roster should look something like the following:

Mantha - Larkin - Bertuzzi
Athanasiou - #6 pick - Zadina
Rasmussen - Nielsen - Veleno

Dekeyser - Hronek
Cholowski - ???

Also, i'm sure there will be a FA signing or two, and a likely 2020 top 5 pick to add to somewhere on the roster.

Even though that defense looks weak on paper, given the young talent at forward, it would take a whole lot of high draft picks and good prospects completely busting or the young established NHL players not improving at all for that roster to not be near the playoff bubble, let alone two seasons after that.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

There's a very large difference between being bad and not being a legit cup contender. You said they would likely be bad for 2-4 more years - you didn't mention anything about cup contention.

If the majority of the young players/prospects can develop well, the team should be on the playoff bubble during the 2020-2021 season. I don't consider that "bad" personally, but it's possible we have different definitions of what bad means.

Think about it, our 20-21 roster should look something like the following:

Mantha - Larkin - Bertuzzi
Athanasiou - #6 pick - Zadina
Rasmussen - Nielsen - Veleno

Dekeyser - Hronek
Cholowski - ???

Also, i'm sure there will be a FA signing or two, and a likely 2020 top 5 pick to add to somewhere on the roster.

Even though that defense looks weak on paper, given the young talent at forward, it would take a whole lot of high draft picks and good prospects completely busting or the young established NHL players not improving at all for that roster to not be near the playoff bubble, let alone two seasons after that.

By bad I meant out of the playoffs. I should have clarified that.

I expect 2 more seasons in and around the bottom 5ish spots, followed by another bottom 9-11 spot followed by just missing and being 12-14 spot.

Now of course we could get lucky and sneak in before that but I am pretty sure its 3 more bad years ahead at minimum.

 

[vladdy16]

I'll take that bet. The team is already fairly well balanced with a pretty good chemistry. The new GM is known for establishing dynamic depth in short order. And the team has trade assets as well as a salary cap situation thats a couple rotations from completely clean.

Being worse than the majority of the teams in the league for 3 more years is incredibly unlikely imo.

 

[Richard Gibson]

@DarrenDreger 6m6 minutes ago
More
My colleague @frank_seravalli has Jacob Trouba #2 on TSN’s Trade Bait board. There is significant interest in Trouba and ongoing discussions. Several teams are conducting pro scouting meetings this week, so action is expected to heat up.

 

[The Zermanator]

@DarrenDreger 6m6 minutes ago
More
My colleague @frank_seravalli has Jacob Trouba #2 on TSN’s Trade Bait board. There is significant interest in Trouba and ongoing discussions. Several teams are conducting pro scouting meetings this week, so action is expected to heat up.

He's not making it to UFA. We need to s*** or get off the pot.

 

[vladdy16]

But also not get dragged into a bidding war for a player that has yet to prove they are a transformative force.

 

[RedWingzz]

By bad I meant out of the playoffs. I should have clarified that.

I expect 2 more seasons in and around the bottom 5ish spots, followed by another bottom 9-11 spot followed by just missing and being 12-14 spot.

Now of course we could get lucky and sneak in before that but I am pretty sure its 3 more bad years ahead at minimum.

You think we miss the playoffs 4 more years in a row? I don't think we are going to be this bad for another 4 years. I honestly see us in contention in 2020-2021. Next offseason will be key with a bunch of junk coming off the books, and it will be a chance to actually acquire some good players.

19-20: we will suck again, bottom 5, lottery team, hopefully for once we get lucky in the dumb lottery

20-21: the ascent begins, I'll say we miss the playoffs, but will be in contention all year

21-22: Playoff team.

 

[RedWingzz]

But also not get dragged into a bidding war for a player that has yet to prove they are a transformative force.

I mean, he did just put up 50 points, while being solid defensively. I think Yzerman will be aggressive, and will make a strong push. There are some assets that I would not move (Larkin, AA, Mantha, Hronek, Cholowski, Zadina, Veleno, McIsaac), but I think anyone else could be in play.

I'd do something along the lines of:

-2019 35th overall pick
-Berggren
-Svech

I don't think that would be enough, but you have to give to get and Trouba would easily be our #1 D, and has proven he can be a legitimate #1.

 

[Larkin2AA]

He's not making it to UFA. We need to s*** or get off the pot.

Isn't it his choice to whether or not he signs with the team he gets traded to?

 

[vladdy16]

I mean, he did just put up 50 points, while being solid defensively. I think Yzerman will be aggressive, and will make a strong push. There are some assets that I would not move (Larkin, AA, Mantha, Hronek, Cholowski, Zadina, Veleno, McIsaac), but I think anyone else could be in play.

I'd do something along the lines of:

-2019 35th overall pick
-Berggren
-Svech

I don't think that would be enough, but you have to give to get and Trouba would easily be our #1 D, and has proven he can be a legitimate #1.

Where's the disagreement here? I think thats a great, realistic package you put together there, and totally agree with your list of untouchables.

But you admit that that package might get outbid, which was my concern.

Imo, we should be thrilled if we can add Trouba to the fold for a package like yours, but if it gets outbid in the end, we should be happy to wait for the next opportunity.

Trouba concerns me a bit production wise. There are d-men that dont have great skills over the entirety of the surface, but are very adept in the o-zone.

In other words for d-men, it would concern me if for instance Trouba was a 50 pt player with far fewer tertiary assists than a comparable player.

Something that hasn't been discussed, because even here it seems like people are hesitant to put Mantha or AA in this deal, is that WPG is a very deep team in need of a shake up. I think theres an opportunity to do some damage in a multi-player deal.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Isn't it his choice to whether or not he signs with the team he gets traded to?

Sure, but the teams are going to be gauging his interest in signing there before sending a good offer. Give the man money and that #1RD and 1#PP time and he is probably yours.