Your Team's Playoff Chances After the First Month

[Tmac37]

Bruins 75%

 

[CupsOverCash]

TB has good chance as long as they dont lose our best players to long term injury. I like our depth in that situation but dont know if it would be enough for playoffs.

 

[triggrman]

88% of the teams that are 4 or more points out of the race by November 1 miss the playoffs.

So Ottawa, Philly, NYR, Detroit, Florida in the East. Vegas, St. Louis, and LA in West.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

Were you impressed with anything they did last year when they were also a 100 point team?

I dunno - I was more optimistic last year than this year. This year, feels like Dubnyk's keeping us in games until late and then we squeak out a win somehow. Last year, it more like the team was rolling when it was winning. Meh... we'll probably get in again but lose early. Feels like wash-rinse-repeat.

Look - I don't know anything - but going by what I've seen, the team seems like it's treading water.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Oilers - eh. 55% will make it. The Pacific is a flaming trash pile. Who even knows.

 

[MattMartin]

20%

 

[gdsmack267]

86.4%

 

[crackdown44]

88% of the teams that are 4 or more points out of the race by November 1 miss the playoffs.

So Ottawa, Philly, NYR, Detroit, Florida in the East. Vegas, St. Louis, and LA in West.

7/8 is roughly 88% so only one of these teams will make it

 

[Chips]

I’m not used to these two graphs and how they relate to each other, or the meaning with “fun” and “dull”. Can someone explain how the Caps are doing based on that? Average? Good?


Is the low sv% attributed purely to goalies, or can the eye test reveal the defense is responsible ? Cuz I don’t think the Caps goaltending has been great, but they’ve been making huge saves and not getting much help


Idk about the Caps chances confidently, but I’ll always say about 80% this early. With that roster there’s no reason they shouldn’t make the playoffs.

 

[Beezeral]

I’m not used to these two graphs and how they relate to each other, or the meaning with “fun” and “dull”. Can someone explain how the Caps are doing based on that? Average? Good?


Is the low sv% attributed purely to goalies, or can the eye test reveal the defense is responsible ? Cuz I don’t think the Caps goaltending has been great, but they’ve been making huge saves and not getting much help


Idk about the Caps chances confidently, but I’ll always say about 80% this early. With that roster there’s no reason they shouldn’t make the playoffs.

top graph: Dull means that a team both gives up and takes a low number of shots. Good: Takes a lot of shots, gives up very few shots (ex a good indicator of success)
Fun: gives up a bunch of shots-takes a bunch of shots.
Bad: Gives up a bunch of shots, takes very few shots. Indicator that a team isn't very good.

Bottom Chart: PDO chart. It adds together a team's sv% at 5 on 5 and a team's shooting% at 5 on 5. On average that number should equal 100. Good teams tend to hover slightly above 100 and bad teams tend to hover slightly below. When a bad team is hovering way over 100, it is an indicator that a team is getting very lucky and there will be a regression to the mean soon.

Dull: Team is getting great goaltending but can't score.
Lucky: Team is getting great goaltending and is scoring at a really high rate.
Fun: Giving up a lot of goals and scoring a lot of goals.
Unlucky: Goaltending performing below the norm and goal scoring below the norm.

 

[Bedards Dad]

I’m not used to these two graphs and how they relate to each other, or the meaning with “fun” and “dull”. Can someone explain how the Caps are doing based on that? Average? Good?


Is the low sv% attributed purely to goalies, or can the eye test reveal the defense is responsible ? Cuz I don’t think the Caps goaltending has been great, but they’ve been making huge saves and not getting much help


Idk about the Caps chances confidently, but I’ll always say about 80% this early. With that roster there’s no reason they shouldn’t make the playoffs.

These graphs aren't about how well you are doing, they are about explaining if your results are sustainable. Being closer to the middle is ideal.

A very high or low PDO means something is off (good luck or bad luck) and should right itself over an extended sample size of 82 games. Dull means you have a high save % and low shooting percentage, i.e. your team is all about low scoring games, and fun is the opposite. Same goes for the shooting chart.

 

[Wolfpuck]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Not So Mighty]

 

[Armourboy]

Short of a big injury bug I'd say we are in good shape.

 

[CROCODILE SEATS]

The Wild will make the playoffs and lose in the first round per usual

 

[CrypTic]

70% per Micah Blake McCurdy


63.1% per Hockey Reference

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

and 72% per SportsClubStats

National Hockey League Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats


I'll go with ~ 67% (or 2/3)

 

[NoMessi]

100%, Penguins doesnt miss the playoff with Malkin.

 

[maacoshark]

Isles are 2nd place in Metro. Ill take it.

Realistically we'll finish around 90-95 points in the middle of WC contention.

Edit: This is assuming Lehner's injury is minor.

relying on Lehner. good luck with that

The Isles should trade for Holtby. I'm sure Holtby would like out of Washington. He was very successful in the Trotz system.

 

[Thenameless]

It's looking reasonably good for Montreal, though that's not what I wanted personally. I was kind of hoping for another two lottery seasons so that we could build from the ground up and finally get rid of MB. I think some of the new guys might be playing a little above their heads, but it is nice to see.

 

[maacoshark]

Caps - 80%

Defense has been shaky and if Holtby were to go down we'd be in real trouble.

The Caps are a joke. Worst defensive team in the league. I would say they are a bubble team.
Its bad when you score 5 goals in a game and still can't win.

 

[Chimpradamus]

I still believe in Rangers. I have watched every game and they have been all very tight battles and small bounces have decided them. I think Rangers's record does not tell the whole truth about how they have been playing. I stay still pretty optimistic and say 30%.

And btw Lundqvist has been great! And has been previous seasons pretty good too. Does not help that the defence gives up high danger chances more than most defences. So save% does no tell the whole truth.

I'd say it's more 5%. The defense is bad and they can't score. Lundqvist is giving them a chance to win basically every game, but the roster sucks too much.

 

[topshelf15]

Playoffs...Lol

 

[Captain97]

70-30 in favour of the habs making the playoffs.

 

[Tkachuky]

Flames as of today I’d say 55-60%.

 

[weaponomega]

If we don't get any secondary scoring I don't like our chances. The Bruins have had a fairly easy schedule in October, we'll get a better sense of how good the team this month because the schedule is much tougher.