Your Prospect Rankings

[Sabretooth]

Updated Condorcet Ranking through 31 voters

thought I'd try something a little different. Here are the FULL results of the condorcet. How to read this: its already sorted by rank. Each cell is the number of "prefer" votes in each head to head matchup. The number is how many prefer the "row" prospect to the "column" prospect.

I rearranged the table from what I originally posted to make it easier to read. Now you can easily see the matchups for 1v2, 2v3, 3v4, etc just by following the diagonal. For example, Risto v. Zads is 19-10 in favor of Risto, Zads v. Grigs is 29-2 in favor of Zads, Grigs v. Compher is 16-3 in favor of grigs, and so on. Since there are 31 voters so far, any missing votes must be ties, so Risto v. Zads is actually 19-10-2 - there must be 2 ties in the lists somewhere.

So presented like this, you can see the results of any individual matchup in the condorcet.

At some point, OcAirlines should be posting results below me for the points based ranking for easy comparison

 

[OcAirlines]

First of all to Sabretooth for setting this up and for posting his results in a way more clearly arranged than me . Here is what I came up with, using a point system that gave 20 points for 1st place, 19 for 2nd and so on, all the way down to 1 point for the 20th ranked player:

Some quick thoughts from my side:

- I just noticed that I misspelled our two Nick's, sorry about that!

- The differences between Sabretooths list and mine are minimal. Fasching and Armia as well as Hurley and Deslaurier switch spots and that's it for the Top-20. And as you can see they are very cloth on my list as well so you could say that these players are pretty much interchangable. At the end of the day, the statistical method used only had a very small influence on the results.

- Ristolainen topped the majority of lists but interestingly a few people only had him 3rd, while Zadorov was Top-2 on every single list.

- The Top-8 as of my ranking made the Top-10 on every individual list. Looks like we have what would could be considered a Top-8 for now, then Ullmark and Baptiste are not too far behind to round out the Top-10. After that there is big gap in points to the next group of players.

- Justin Bailey and Chad Ruhwedel are the two players that had the highest variation in terms of where they were ranked. Ruhwedel made the Top-10 or came close to it on some lists (being ranked as high as 8th) and didn't make the Top-20 at all on others. The same goes for Bailey, who was 10th on two lists and unranked on others, but overall his rankings were a little more balanced, as the majority of voters had him around 14th.

- Justin Kea, Cal Petersen and Dan Catenacci form another interesting group of players, they were very low on most lists, only being ranked 15th to 20th most of the time. But there were almost never left out of the Top-20, each of them didn't make the Top-20 for only about four to five people.

- The list isn't really valid after 20 I'd say, because of the low number of total votes for players down there. I only went that far down because Sabretooth went to #25 as well. As you can see some players like Hackett and Locke are probably a bit high because one voter had them high. Doesn't look like there are many Hackett-lovers out there anymore, just one guy who had him 12th

 

[OcAirlines]

Now, comparing our list to the prospect polls, the most notable changes are:

- Larsson drops from #4 to #6 even though he has been phenomenal in the AHL these last few weeks. Looks like people still aren't sure if his offense will translate to the NHL-level.

- Armia drops from #5 to #7/#8, part of the reason is Fasching entering the list though. Even without Fasching Armia still drops about two spots, maybe the conflicting reports about his play that we get out of Rochester can explain a bit of that discrepancy.

- Compher jumps from #7 to #4, people in this thread really seemed to like him more than those in the prospect poll - or the format just benefitted him.

- There is very little movement in the later part of the rankings, almost all the changes there can be explained by the substraction of McNabb and the addition of Fasching, Deslauriers and Carrier.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Thanks for the great work you two! Larsson dropping is puzzling at best IMO

 

[Sabretooth]

- The differences between Sabretooths list and mine are minimal. Fasching and Armia as well as Hurley and Deslaurier switch spots and that's it for the Top-20. And as you can see they are very cloth on my list as well so you could say that these players are pretty much interchangable. At the end of the day, the statistical method used only had a very small influence on the results.

I guess thats not really surprising. A player would have to be really polarizing in order for the results to be very different, I think. Fasching and Armia swapping is interesting but it makes sense to me. Even though voters prefer Fasching to Armia 17-12-2, most people ranked Fasching around the same spot, but Armia varied quite a bit more. Those who favored Armia over Fasching tended to rank Armia a few slots higher than Fasching, but those who favored Fasching over Armia tended to rank Armia not very far behind Fasching. Des v. Hurley was 15-14-2, so it really could have gone either way in the points.

Now, comparing our list to the prospect polls, the most notable changes are:

- Larsson drops from #4 to #6 even though he has been phenomenal in the AHL these last few weeks. Looks like people still aren't sure if his offense will translate to the NHL-level.

- Armia drops from #5 to #7/#8, part of the reason is Fasching entering the list though. Even without Fasching Armia still drops about two spots, maybe the conflicting reports about his play that we get out of Rochester can explain a bit of that discrepancy.

- Compher jumps from #7 to #4, people in this thread really seemed to like him more than those in the prospect poll - or the format just benefitted him.

- There is very little movement in the later part of the rankings, almost all the changes there can be explained by the substraction of McNabb and the addition of Fasching, Deslauriers and Carrier.

One explanation could be sample size. Only 31 voters submitting lists, but there were >100 votes in our early prospect polls. Larsson dropping is the puzzling one. Armia dropping makes sense because more and more people are realizing that Armia hasn't been having a great year.



OT: I have a really strong desire to change to a Varys avatar for this thread... Oc and I, 2 sides of the same coin

 

[jc17]

One explanation could be sample size. Only 31 voters submitting lists, but there were >100 votes in our early prospect polls. Larsson dropping is the puzzling one. Armia dropping makes sense because more and more people are realizing that Armia hasn't been having a great year.

One of the reasons I made this thread is because people don't always vote based on their own rankings.

If someone thinks compher is the 4th best, but everyone knows the 4th poll will be between Larsson and Armia, all of the people that would have voted Compher will vote for one of the other two so that their vote matters.

 

[OcAirlines]

I guess thats not really surprising. A player would have to be really polarizing in order for the results to be very different, I think. Fasching and Armia swapping is interesting but it makes sense to me. Even though voters prefer Fasching to Armia 17-12-2, most people ranked Fasching around the same spot, but Armia varied quite a bit more. Those who favored Armia over Fasching tended to rank Armia a few slots higher than Fasching, but those who favored Fasching over Armia tended to rank Armia not very far behind Fasching. Des v. Hurley was 15-14-2, so it really could have gone either way in the points.

Yeah that sounds like a good explanation, Armia and Larsson are two guys that seemed to be all over players Top-10s a lot.

One explanation could be sample size. Only 31 voters submitting lists, but there were >100 votes in our early prospect polls. Larsson dropping is the puzzling one. Armia dropping makes sense because more and more people are realizing that Armia hasn't been having a great year.

Hm, sample size is a possible explanation but I don't think it played that big of a role. With how close Compher, McCabe and Larsson still were in my ranking, a couple of more lists could definitely have created some more movement though.
Another thing that I think played into it, and I hope I don't sound arrogant by saying that, but you could argue that creating a Top-20 and ranking players accordingly requires more work and more thought than just voting for one guy in the prospect poll. Maybe the average contribution in this thread was a little more well informed than in the prospect pools. I don't want to diminish them by the way, still think they are a gread idea and I love it whenever they are done.

About Larsson: Larsson "dropping" from #4 to #6 makes it sound worse than it is imho. #6 is still a very good rank for a player like Larsson, who wasn't rated that highly to start the year. And I think that many voters were torn between Compher and McCabe, which helped Larsson in the prospect poll, but made him drop behind both in this ranking.

About Armia: He is kind of a weird case for me, he has been average at best all season, why would he just start dropping now, when he has actually started to put up some points again? Maybe it's true that people are just starting to realize the bad year he has mad, maybe it is because of our method, as mentioned before? I don't know.

OT: I have a really strong desire to change to a Varys avatar for this thread... Oc and I, 2 sides of the same coin

Now that would be awesome

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

@ZeroPT, AdamsApple, yahhockey & 7 11 14: Could you add some players to your list so you have a full Top-20?

1 Grigorenko
2 Zadorov
3 Ristolainen
4 Armia
5 Compher
6 Mccabe
7 Fasching
8 Larsson
9 Ullmark
10 Baptiste
11 Deslauriers
12 Carrier
13 Hurley
14 Ruhwedel
15 Bailey
16 Possler
17 Kea
18 Catenacci
19 Petersen
20 Florentino

 

[Buffalo Warlord]

3 Canadians in the top 15 has to turn around under Tim Murray. I'm confident it will. My top 5

Zadorov
Ristolainen
Grigorenko
Fasching
Compher

Larsson WILL be a NHL'er long term though. I really liked the Sammy Pahlsson comparison so if we can get healthy Pahlsson productivity I'm good.

 

[jBuds]

1. Zadorov
2. Ristolainen
3. McCabe
4. Grigorenko
5. Larsson
6. Compher
7. Fasching
8. Armia
9. Baptiste
10. Ullmark
11. Deslauriers
12. Bailey
13. Hurley
14. Carrier
15. Possler
16. Kea
17. Ruhwedel
18. Catenacci
19. Malone
20. Cal Peterson


My top 11 is pretty firm. 12 through 15 are almost an interchangeable foursome.

Not enough McCabe love here or in the polls. This kid is the guy I've been waiting for on this blueline forever. And when all is said and done, I think McCabe will be our gem defensive dman, Zadorov all around, and Ristolainen just .... awesome. Wow. Those three... Jeez

 

[Zip15]

1) Ristolainen
2) Zadorov
3) Grigorenko
4) Armia
5) Compher
6) Larsson
7) McCabe
8) Fasching
9) Ullmark
10) Baptiste
11) Hurley
12) Deslauriers
13) Carrier
14) Possler
15) Ruhwedel
16) Bailey
17) Lieuwen
18) Petersen
19) Florentino
20) Kea

 

[Fly Boy]

I've tweaked mine a bit since last month.

1. Ristolainen
2. McCabe
3. Zadorov
4. Grigorenko
5. Larsson
6. Compher
7. Fasching
8. Armia
9. Ullmark
10. Hurley
11. Possler
12. Baptise
13. Carrier
14. Deslauriers
15. Ruhwedel
16. Hackett
17. Bailey
18. Florentino
19. Peterson
20. Kea

Changes since last time: Fashcing slotted in at #7 Carrier at #13 and Deslauriers at #14. Also Ullmark jumps both Hurley and Possler while Hackett dropped 5 spots.

Larsson and Compher are pretty much like a 5a and 5b while Fasching and Armia are a 7a and 7b type deal for me. It was really hard to slot one over the other in these two groups.

If Girgensons were eligible he would have been #2 and Pysyk would have come in after Compher.

 

[krt88]

took some time to compile mine: I wanted to have Pysyk included but it looks like most people did not.

1. Ristolainen
2. Grigorenko
3. Zadorov
4. McCabe
5. Armia
6. Fasching
7. Ullmark
8. Compher
9. Larsson
10. Carrier
11. Baptiste
12. Deslauriers
13. Possler
14. Ruhwedel
15. Hurley

 

[phosphene*]

1. Zadorov
2. Ristolainen
3. McCabe
4. Grigorenko
5. Larsson
6. Armia
7. Fasching
8. Ullmark
9. Compher
10. Baptiste

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Bump....Matt Hackett. Yeah, I know....small sample size.

 

[Chainshot]

Bump....Matt Hackett. Yeah, I know....small sample size.

Pleasantly surprised by Hackett. A couple other guys who could take serious leaps next year would be Florentino since he's in discussion for the U20's WJC team and Malone who's solid rookie season is overshadowed by what Compher is doing.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

The cut off is at 65 games. Girgensons has played exactly that amount and Pysyk is just a couple games away from that.But since currently Girgensons is just a rookie and just turned 20 and Pysyk is currently in Rochester, I will include the 2 as I consider them part of our young prospect Core still.

1- Nikita Zadorov
2- Rasmus Ristolainen
3- Zemgus Girgensons
4- Mikhail Grigorenko
5- Mark Pysyk
6- Jake McCabe
7- JT Compher
8- Joel Armia
9- Nick Baptiste
10- Hudson Fasching
11- Johan Larsson
12- Connor Hurley
13- Nick Deslauriers
14- William Carrier
15- Linus Ullmark
16- Jerome Gauthier-Leduc
17- Gustav Possler
18- Justin Kea
19- Daniel Catenacci
20- Nathan Lieuwin

 

[McDrailers]

No love for Makarov? How has he been in the ECHL?

 

[ZeroPT*]

The cut off is at 65 games. Girgensons has played exactly that amount and Pysyk is just a couple games away from that.But since currently Girgensons is just a rookie and just turned 20 and Pysyk is currently in Rochester, I will include the 2 as I consider them part of our young prospect Core still.

1- Nikita Zadorov
2- Rasmus Ristolainen
3- Zemgus Girgensons
4- Mikhail Grigorenko
5- Mark Pysyk
6- Jake McCabe
7- JT Compher
8- Joel Armia
9- Nick Baptiste
10- Hudson Fasching
11- Johan Larsson
12- Connor Hurley
13- Nick Deslauriers
14- William Carrier
15- Linus Ullmark
16- Jerome Gauthier-Leduc
17- Gustav Possler
18- Justin Kea
19- Daniel Catenacci
20- Nathan Lieuwin

Why is JGL there? He's awful

Hurley hasn't done anything to suggest he's ahead of Ullmark or Carrier.

Baptiste is too high.

1.Zadorov
2.Ristolainen
3.Girgensons
4.Grigorenko
5.Pysyk
6.McCabe
7.Compher
8.Larsson
9.Fasching
10.Ullmark
11.Armia
12.Carrier
13.Delauriers
14.Baptiste
15.Hurley
16.Kea
17.Possler
18.Cat
19.Lieuwen
20.Makarov/Varone are tied

 

[jBuds]

No love for Makarov? How has he been in the ECHL?

Stats are fine for me, but more importantly, I've liked what I've seen from him in Rochester at the AHL level.