TSN: Yost: The Jets are this season’s biggest disappointment

[Aavco Cup]

I view it that way because evidence suggest the other way is inferior.

What evidence is reliable before the season started?

Also how can you measure disappointment?

 

[Jimmyjets]

Like a few others have said, I have a hard time labeling this season as disappointing, let alone the most disappointing given my expectations at the start of the season were that the team would just miss out on the playoffs and that is exactly what is going to happen. To be fair, I thought they'd have in the high 80's in points and they'll probably end up high 70s or low 80s. I would have thought they would have won 5 more games out of 82 or managed to get more loser points by taking games into overtime. There were lots of times this season where it felt like we let points get away in the third period.

Given that Maurice has come out and said he's letting the young guys figure out the offensive side of the game before hammering home defensive responsibility does align with the advanced stats people have been tossing out.

To me the most disappointing thing about this season is the PK and the fact that we're terrible on the PK but still lead the league in penalties. It's an absolute recipe for disaster and either the PK needs to improve, or the discipline needs to improve (including loose sticks) but hopefully both. The passive box that the Jets have employed most of the year obviously isn't working. In their last game against Nashville they were incredibly aggressive on the PK which was great to see. They only had one penalty in regulation so I'm looking to see if that will continue the rest of the season. Something needs to change. Helle being a rebound machine early in the year might be way they were using the passive box, so they'd have more support in clearing pucks. Hopefully that is something that will improve with a bit more seasoning. They say your best Penalty Killer is your goalie, and Helle hasn't been great when we've been shorthanded. I do think Helle is the goalie of the future though. Just needed to take his lumps this year.

Helle's save percentage is really the other thing that I was disappointed with this year as I was hoping for around .915 - .920 from him.

Given how bad the West has been this year it feels like a missed opportunity to make the playoffs as Laine and Morrissey have been way better than I anticipated they would be. Could we have easily ended up with high 80's/low 90's in points. I thought so, but regardless the future feels so bright. Next season I expect to make the playoffs... no excuses.

 

[nobody important]

"Chevy sucks"

"Maurice sucks"

"Kompon sucks"

"Huddy sucks"

"Flaherty sucks"

"Zinger sucks"

"Chipman sucks" (he's greedy, too)

(Fill in anyone else that I've missed)

/end thread

I think you've hit the nail on the head with your analysis here, Whileee. Although you might be jumping the gun a bit on Kompon. I don't think the sample size is large enough to make that call yet, although given enough time with Maurice, in all likelihood, he will suck as well. You also left out Pascal Vincent and Jimmy Roy, whose suckage is even more damaging from a developmental standpoint. Don't even get me started on the scouting staff. That could be a thread in itself. But given our diminishing pipeline,... Mark Hillier sucks. Who else? Oh yeah, our training staff. With the number of man-games lost, they clearly aren't getting the job done with either injury prevention or treatment. So, Dr Slaunwhite et al, you suck.

 

[Romang67]

A tale of two (disappointing) teams...

Winnipeg Jets

PP% + PK%

2014/15 - 99.3
2015/16 - 93.2
2016/17 - 93.7

Dallas Stars

PP% + PK%

2014/15 - 100.0
2015/16 - 104.4
2016/17 - 91.9 amazed

Worth a look, cause I seem to remember seeing a statistic showing that likelihood that a team makes the playoffs and good special teams correlated pretty well.

Now, our special teams have been incredibly disappointing. We can't buy a save, our PK units have sprint-like coverage, and we have been unable to both get good looks, sustain zone time, and utilize one of the best shooters in the league. Add in the fact that the team remains very undisciplined, and we must be loads of fun to play against.

 

[Mbraunm]

I think most of us expected more. Having a team with the defensive issues falls on the coach. We can't blame the offensive side of the game.

Agreed. Getting a good coach and capable starter makes us an instant playoff team

 

[garret9]

What evidence is reliable before the season started?

Also how can you measure disappointment?

You can make a projection using a model rather than using "expert opinions" that have a long standing history of being poor and worse than models.

Disappointment is under achieving those expectations.

 

[Mbraunm]

So I still bring myself to look at Maurice (coaching) and poor goaltending as our big issues.

Problems this season -

Goaltending (Chevy)
Maurice (Coaching)
...
then..
Injuries


That's just the way I look at it.[/QUOTE]

A valid and recurrent theme which I completely agree with

 

[Mbraunm]

The jury is out on whether Maurice can coach this sort of team effectively. I won't be surprised if they turn it around next year, but also won't be surprised if they continue to struggle and decide that they need to change coaches at some point in the next season or two.[/QUOTE]

in my opinion results are in from the past two seasons. I would be shocked if the Jets are in a playoff position by Christmas of next season. Maurice has not shown any significant improvements in most key metrics and his career record is definitely an accurate predictor as to what is in store for the Jets as long as he is here.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

After the '12 season we drafted 9th. If the season ended today and there was no lottery we would draft 7th - after finishing in 6th spot last year. This is not a 1 year dive to the bottom. That is disappointing. I don't think we can or should keep excusing and accepting that.

After 6 years we are worse than the team we inherited. Youth, blah, blah, blah. Prospects, blah, blah, blah.

IMO it is clear that we should have blown it up and started the rebuild no later than after the '13 season, the lockout season. Instead we started after the '15 season, the play-off season. We can't go back and take a do-over but someone should take the heat for that.

Jets 1.0 were beaten up and ***** (treated very badly) when they came into the NHL. They were in much worse condition than Jets 2.0 were to start. They were probably worse than an expansion team. In their 6th season in the league they finished 4th over-all.

I'm not suggesting that the current Jets be held to that standard but we should demand better than what we are getting. JMO

 

[Mbraunm]

Chevy needs to take off his beer goggles and fix our coaching and goaltending problem before it very soon becomes a GM problem.

This^. Fix those two issues and we are a playoff team.

 

[sipowicz]

Now listen, Paul Maurice isn't going anywhere, he will be signed to a long-term contract, now listen the assistant coaches haven't been good but that doesn't mean you replace him, now listen Chevy has done a really good job, just because you have one playoff appearance in six seasons doesn't mean you aren't building a good .500 team, now listen TNSE are probably the best ownership group in the NHL....

Gary Lawless approves this post!

 

[Jets4Life]

It's about time the national sports media called out Jets management for their incompetent job of running the organization since 2015.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just josh about Nill because he was lauded around here as the paragon of an NHL GM. He's not as good as some used to say, and not as bad as his team's performance this season.

Well that's balanced.

 

[AWSAA]

Which current playoff team will the Jets be displacing next season? Keep in mind the Pacific will be feasting on Vegas.

Will Chevy be more aggressive/successful addressing holes than the GMs in Dallas, LA, and St. Louis this summer?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Since January 1st our top 4 on D (Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrissey, Enstrom) have been relatively healthy with minimal missed time. Yes Myers has been out.

Enstrom - 5 games (Feb 14-21st Personal reasons) 2 games (Mar 11th vs. Calgary, Mar 13th vs. Nasville)

Trouba - 3 games (Feb 21st vs. Toronto, Feb 28th vs. Minnesota, Mar 13th vs. Nashville)

It was a hit to take losing Enstrom for 5 games (personal reasons) and having Myers out, totally. BUT, that happened mid-February. So for all of December and January and 5 games of February leading up to Enstrom missing time, we had a healthy top 4 defensive unit. Chiarot missed 12 games (Jan 13th-Feb 7th).

OK, make it Feb 1 then - and don't forget Trouba's suspension. Lately we have been without Myers, Enstrom and Trouba at the same time.

I agree that mostly since Dec 1 our injuries have not been out of the ordinary. Mostly since that time the injury excuse does not apply.

Only pointing out that there has never been more than a couple of games when we did not have some significant injuries. We just get everybody back and a couple more go down.

With a normal injury load we might still be in a chase for the last WC spot which is about what I expected for this year in terms of the standings. I didn't expect to make it but I expected to be close. If I had known how the West, particularly the Central was going to fade I might have expected to make the play-offs.

Even if we were in the hunt though all the other specific criticisms would still apply. Goaltending, defensive depth, penalties, special teams, system breakdowns would all add up to a very quick exit if we did make the play-offs and they will sink us again next year if they are not addressed.

 

[Mbraunm]

Which current playoff team will the Jets be displacing next season? Keep in mind the Pacific will be feasting on Vegas.

Will Chevy be more aggressive/successful addressing holes than the GMs in Dallas, LA, and St. Louis this summer?

It's very frustrating! All Chevy needs to do is obtain a competent coach and goalie! This makes us an instant playoff team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Jets not making the playoffs is not a surprise. Injuries and schedule are legitimate excuses. However, injuries and schedule do not account for poor defensive play, goaltending, poor power play, poor penalty killing, lack of discipline, concerns of the poor seasons of Buff and Enstrom, faceoffs, player usage, team toughness and general style of play. Based on watching Chevy and Maurice operate, there is little optimism these areas will ever be corrected as many of the problems are same year after year and never been addressed. The disappointment is not so much in their record this year but more in the concern that Chevy and Maurice are not capable of getting this team to the next level.

Good post. Sums it up succinctly.

 

[Aavco Cup]

You can make a projection using a model rather than using "expert opinions" that have a long standing history of being poor and worse than models.

Disappointment is under achieving those expectations.

Is that what Yost did? I don't think he published any statistical model about what he expected from the Jets this season. He certainly wasn't predicting playoffs IIRC.

And I'm not sure how they are any more disappointing than a half dozen or so other teams. He never showed how he quantified his disappointment in his article. Seems to me its just him reacting to his own feelings.

I am disappointed. I expect most fans are. Just perhaps the Jets may not be the most disappointing team in the NHL this season. I think there are several other candidates for that title.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I tend to agree, if we don't make the playoffs again by next year I'll be very mad.

By the looks of the outcome (Dallas being bad place, Colorado falling last place, Nashville being weaker defensively, St. Louis starting to regress) Winnipeg could've been in the top three this season playing either Chicago or Minnesota in the playoffs.

I expect them to rise to 2-3 place in the central next season.

 

[AWSAA]

^ I expect Fleury & Bishop to be playing in Dallas & St. Louis next year.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I think you've hit the nail on the head with your analysis here, Whileee. Although you might be jumping the gun a bit on Kompon. I don't think the sample size is large enough to make that call yet, although given enough time with Maurice, in all likelihood, he will suck as well. You also left out Pascal Vincent and Jimmy Roy, whose suckage is even more damaging from a developmental standpoint. Don't even get me started on the scouting staff. That could be a thread in itself. But given our diminishing pipeline,... Mark Hillier sucks. Who else? Oh yeah, our training staff. With the number of man-games lost, they clearly aren't getting the job done with either injury prevention or treatment. So, Dr Slaunwhite et al, you suck.

What about the dentist?

 

[AWSAA]

^ Dallas for sure. Forgot Allen still has 3 years left, has picked up his game recently.

 

[Aavco Cup]

^ Dallas for sure. Forgot Allen still has 3 years left, has picked up his game recently.

Are they buying out Lehtinen? Niemi? Both?

 

[AWSAA]

Are they buying out Lehtinen? Niemi? Both?

Both only have 1 year left. So either a buyout or trade & retain salary. They can't afford to run with that duo again next season.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Both only have 1 year left. So either a buyout or trade & retain salary. They can't afford to run with that duo again next season.

Who's taking them even at half salary?