GDT: XXVIII | "Easy Decisions" | Oilers vs. Sabres | 12.6.15 | 6:00PM | SNW

[McMozesmadness]

Is there any confirmation of the lineup yet.

I'm really hoping Davidson is back.

He's arguably been our best D-man lately. Plus it pushes Gryba or Fayne to the pressbox.

 

[Aceboogie]

i know a lot of you guys don't want to hear it but I saw something very interesting on the hl site today ... our goal differntial is only -13, compared to the league worse calgary -29
I know its been beaten to death but guys, this is a much better team than last year and time will show that. I don't see us finishing bottom 5 and if things go right from here on we could potential be fighting for 3rd in the pacific , maybe even .550 by the time mcdcvid is back

at 10-15-2 , our next 10 look like:

Buffalo
San Jose
NYR
Boston
NYR
CHI
AVS
JETS
VAN
CAL

i could see us go :

W
W
OTL
OTL
L
OTL
W
W
W
W

15 points out of 20, thats best case tho, I guess we'll see

but for tonights game ... 4-2 Oilers

Optimism isnt well liked around here, but here is my contribution

Oilers are 20th in CF%, after years of bottom finishes, this is a slight improvement. They are 27th in PDO, very unlucky.

If the Oilers win tonight and Arizona losses, Oilers are 3 points out of a playoff spot. With no McDavid and with Eberle injured for half the games and slumping other half (with RNH)

 

[ScrillaVilla]

Its crazy. Fayne plays amongst the hardest minutes in the NHL, ofcourse you are going to look bad. I wonder whats easier, playing 20 mins vs Kopitar, or 15 minutes against David Jones. No wonder Gryba is looking ok (even tho shot metrics still shows he sucks)

I think he looks like **** by eye, to each his own I guess. Thats why we dont use the eye test to judge the vaue of players.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Shhh! Actual data to suport conclusions is not welcome in this forum. Watch what you say around here.

Are you talking about real data or those goalpost moving, ever-changing, meaningless Fibonacci numbers?

 

[Aceboogie]

I think he looks like **** by eye, to each his own I guess. Thats why we dont use the eye test to judge the vaue of players.

Im on the fence about Gryba. He looks ok positioning wise and has toughness. But without fail the puck never gets out when he has it, unless its a flip out or off the glass and out. Never a tape to tape pass. His controlled zone exits stats are probaly absymal

 

[CupofOil]

I'd leave Khaira on the top line and re-unite RNH and Eberle and hope they figure it out at some point. I'd put Hendricks on their wing for some net presence and move Pakarinen to the 4th line where he belongs. It doesn't looks like any of McDavid, Yak or Pouliot will be back soon so Mclellan needs to figure this out.

Davidson in for Fayne or Gryba would make sense as well if Davidson is healthy enough.
Gryba brings needed physical presence but his puck management is atrocious, he must have had at least 3-4 boneheaded turnovers in the Dallas game.

They need to win games like this. A loss to a beatable team at home could be really deflating.

 

[McDynasty]

Has he been good for you guys?

He was much better last year, but judging any players from that group is tough. He might have been steady last year, but this year his error's are huge and very noticeable.

 

[Aceboogie]

Are you talking about real data or those goalpost moving, ever-changing, meaningless Fibonacci numbers?

How is it goal post moving? These are objective stats and this one measures stats relative to teammates. Are you suggesting behindthenet.ca is paid for by Mark Fayne and he has a say in how his quality of comp is calculated

Please tell me how to quantify the quality of minutes Fayne plays versus Gryba?

 

[ScrillaVilla]

Are you talking about real data or those goalpost moving, ever-changing, meaningless Fibonacci numbers?

Well you'd have to define what you mean by real data vs goal post moving. But thanks for illustrating my point.

 

[Aceboogie]

Well you'd have to define what you mean by real data vs goal post moving. But thanks for illustrating my point.

"I saw Gryba play some shifts vs Malkin a couple games ago and Faybe had a turnover vs a 4th line, therefore the stats are wrong"

 

[McAsuno]

I prefer Gryba over Fayne rather easily. Gryba's a bottom pairing d man. Fayne was supposed to be a top four and yet he has looked like garbage.

 

[I am the Liquor]

How is it goal post moving? These are objective stats and this one measures stats relative to teammates. Are you suggesting behindthenet.ca is paid for by Mark Fayne and he has a say in how his quality of comp is calculated

Please tell me how to quantify the quality of minutes Fayne plays versus Gryba?

Well, if you have been paying attention over the years you would know that the "standard" for measuring Qualcomp has changed, and ridiculous garbage like ONSv% was used to explain why advanced stat poster boys like Shawn Horcoff werent really crap on a stick like most weak minded eye watchers would figure, but in reality, he was hindered because the goalie somehow decided to let in a few extra goals while poor Shawn was on the ice.

One would figure that the goals were going in because maybe Horcoff wasnt able to carry his own load facing the best players in the league, but no, that is not what the tall forehead woman haters club would have you believe.

There are many other examples of shifting parameters around to fit agendas, like plain old corsi not being near good enuf daggumit, so they came up with RealCorsi and Corsi in the last five minutes of a close game against teams withing 3-5pts in the standings, or some such *********.

However did we manage without these numbers in the dark old days of yore? It is almost unbearable to think about really.

 

[McDynasty]

What?!?!? Oilers called up Ryan Hamilton from Bakersfield.

 

[Aceboogie]

I prefer Gryba over Fayne rather easily. Gryba's a bottom pairing d man. Fayne was supposed to be a top four and yet he has looked like garbage.

The answer is because Gryba is playing bottom pairing minutes and Fayne is playing #1 minutes. Put Gryba in Faynes spot and Fayne on bottom pairing and Gryba will look worse than Barker and Fayne will be a quality bottom pairing D

 

[I am the Liquor]

Well you'd have to define what you mean by real data vs goal post moving. But thanks for illustrating my point.

I dont think you have a point. If that is what you're talking about, you are more than welcome.

 

[McAsuno]

The answer is because Gryba is playing bottom pairing minutes and Fayne is playing #1 minutes. Put Gryba in Faynes spot and Fayne on bottom pairing and Gryba will look worse than Barker and Fayne will be a quality bottom pairing D

Well that's why Gryba's a bottom pairing d man. Fayne was supposed to be at least a serviceable top four. Too bad his partner Greene and the devils system benefited him more than anything. Fayne was on the ice for a ******** ton of shots against in the stars game as well. Not a huge fan of Gryba, but at least he hits. Fayne doesn't do anything. Well, he did manage to move the puck out without turning it over! Unfortunately it leads to an icing.

 

[BlackDogg]

why on God's green earth is Fayne playing again? Gryba is 100x better

No Fayne no Gayne? Not sure

 

[SaskOilers]

I look forward to a point in the future where our d-core is solid enough that we don't have to debate whether Fayne or Gryba is worse.

 

[Aceboogie]

However did we manage without these numbers in the dark old days of yore? It is almost unbearable to think about really.

Because you blindly thought you were right at evaluating players? Don Cherry gets by without looking at advanced stats and thinks hes really correct. But in reality he is proven wrong on nearly all his assertions of personal play. In fact, most active voices that are "eye testers" are routinely wrong.

On ice shooting % has also been proved correct nearly without fail. Its why Eberle isnt putting up ppg numbers with insane high on ice sh%. Its why Ovechkin isnt a -30 with a league worst on ice sv% (and then next season magically bounces back to league average)

Im not sure how you figure quality of comp, especially relative to teammates, is goal post shifting. The metrics measuring Faynes quality of comp is the same ones measuring Grybas. Same team, same year, facing same teams

 

[Aceboogie]

Well that's why Gryba's a bottom pairing d man. Fayne was supposed to be at least a serviceable top four. Too bad his partner Greene and the devils system benefited him more than anything. Fayne was on the ice for a ******** ton of shots against in the stars game as well. Not a huge fan of Gryba, but at least he hits. Fayne doesn't do anything. Well, he did manage to move the puck out without turning it over! Unfortunately it leads to an icing.

Except not get outshot nearly as badly as Gryba, all while playing tougher comp...

 

[Mcnofool6110]

I look forward to a point in the future where our d-core is solid enough that we don't have to debate whether Fayne or Gryba is worse.

This is infinitely better than the trade Hall discussion that will inevitably sneak in if we lose.

 

[McAsuno]

Except not get outshot nearly as badly as Gryba, all while playing tougher comp...

You can say what you want and use the advanced stats. I can agree to an extent, but I'm still not a fan of Fayne. Especially when he was supposed to be a top four d man who's been a huge disappointment overall. You sound like Lowetide defending Fayne all of a sudden.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Because you blindly thought you were right at evaluating players? Don Cherry gets by without looking at advanced stats and thinks hes really correct. But in reality he is proven wrong on nearly all his assertions of personal play. In fact, most active voices that are "eye testers" are routinely wrong.

On ice shooting % has also been proved correct nearly without fail. Its why Eberle isnt putting up ppg numbers with insane high on ice sh%. Its why Ovechkin isnt a -30 with a league worst on ice sv% (and then next season magically bounces back to league average)

Im not sure how you figure quality of comp, especially relative to teammates, is goal post shifting. The metrics measuring Faynes quality of comp is the same ones measuring Grybas. Same team, same year, facing same teams

If you dont understand what Im talking about, you probably shouldnt bother commenting on it. jmo

 

[McDNicks17]

It's pretty easy to pick and choose advanced stats to make a player look the way you want.

Like bringing up QoC, but not mentioning Gryba has the worst QoT and Corsi QoT on the team.

 

[McAsuno]

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...yne-getting-killed-on-grade-a-scoring-chances

Fayne sure looks impressive here. Awful.

Fayne has made 43 such major mistakes on Grade A chances in 348 even strength minutes, about 1.9 per game (with a game defined as 15 minutes even strength). That’s the highest rate for a regular d-man on the Oilers this year, with all the other d-man around 0.8 to 1.1 such major defensive mistakes on Grade A even strength chances per game. So they’re only about half as likely to get burned in the slot as he is.

And the stars game.