Would the Wild have been more successful the last 7 years without the Parise/Suter signings?

[Saga of the Elk]

Is there a team in the league that doesn't have a history of mid-to-late round picks that don't yield NHL players?

I think most of us agree that bleeding 2nd rounders in particular has hurt our pool depth, and the loss of later picks may have exacerbated that. But just going by the picks we have had, is there anything to show that our success rate in the 3rd-7th rounds is anything other than average?

That's a silly, straw man, argument. Of course teams miss. Good teams miss on good players, not some staff member's kid. Sokolov might well bust, but that's a good 7th round pick. Teams stuck in limbo miss on players they should never have considered drafting. It's about the process. Hopefully 2020 we see further evidence of a smarter process but as I've already complained, spending two picks on one goalie last year doesn't give me a ton of confidence that's the case.

 

[Bazeek]

That's a silly, straw man, argument. Of course teams miss. Good teams miss on good players, not some staff member's kid. Sokolov might well bust, but that's a good 7th round pick. Teams stuck in limbo miss on players they should never have considered drafting. It's about the process. Hopefully 2020 we see further evidence of a smarter process but as I've already complained, spending two picks on one goalie last year doesn't give me a ton of confidence that's the case.

Asking to compare apples to apples is a silly, straw man argument? You went from Binnington, Benn, Gaudreau and Point to Misley, Gabriel, Belanger and Nane in one sentence. Was the point not to compare four of the best later round picks league-wide to four of the worst from a single team?

There are two issues here:
1.) Trading picks away
2.) How the remaining picks are used

I think almost everyone on here agrees that bleeding away 1sts and 2nds for years has hurt our pool depth and that it's only starting to recover after having a few drafts with most of our picks. I think there's less agreement on how much of an effect trading away 3rds-7ths has had, but it could have exacerbated things in aggregate.

But point 2 is an almost entirely separate question. Past the 3rd round we're looking at the following chances of a picks playing more than 50 NHL games:

The much more relevant question is how far off of these chances the Wild have been over the last (say) decade. Picking 4 crappy picks out of the list is something you can do with literally any team in the league.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Asking to compare apples to apples is a silly, straw man argument? You went from Binnington, Benn, Gaudreau and Point to Misley, Gabriel, Belanger and Nane in one sentence. Was the point not to compare four of the best later round picks league-wide to four of the worst from a single team?

There are two issues here:
1.) Trading picks away
2.) How the remaining picks are used

I think almost everyone on here agrees that bleeding away 1sts and 2nds for years has hurt our pool depth and that it's only starting to recover after having a few drafts with most of our picks. I think there's less agreement on how much of an effect trading away 3rds-7ths has had, but it could have exacerbated things in aggregate.

But point 2 is an almost entirely separate question. Past the 3rd round we're looking at the following chances of a picks playing more than 50 NHL games:

The much more relevant question is how far off of these chances the Wild have been over the last (say) decade. Picking 4 crappy picks out of the list is something you can do with literally any team in the league.

I appreciate the chart but I don't honestly think any other team has drafted guys with literally zero goals in their draft seasons as the Wild have done. That's just a complete waste of a pick, as was picking a kid like Nanne's. If you have a 15% chance at something why would you instead choose to make it a zero percent chance? It's something this organization has decided to do.

 

[Wabit]

I thought it was pretty well known what the rules were well before 1 year. In any event, guys like Scandella, Pominville, Haula and maybe another Dman should've been moved way before they were. Tuch? He had one nice(not great) season, so far, on a very good offensive team. I'll wait before I declare him a big loss.

I never did like the 2nd Poms contract. His oncoming decline was pretty obvious to me(and a couple of other posters...Nick Schultz fan, maybe?)before the 2nd contract was given. You could see in the playoffs how soft he was...sort of a high end Donato.

The rules were annonuced shortly after the Vegas team was announced, but that was only 13 months before the expansion draft.

It's easy to say "xyz" player should have been moved.
-It takes 2 to make a trade and every team had their own expansion draft concerns to worry about. Pommer had a NMC with a 20 team no-trade list at the time of the expansion draft.
-Scandella had an awful season.
-Haula was the 3C with nothing behind him until the Hanzal trade. They burned a year of JEE's ELC because Haula got pouty after being moved to the 4th line.
-They had the 2nd best record in the West (106p) that year, and were 41-14-6 at the end of Feb. Not really a season to sell off players.

Yes the expansion draft could have been handled better, but at the time most thought we got off rather easy. We kept Brodin/Dumba and Staal/Zucker, and only lost Haula (most on here figured he was gone anyways that offseason) and Tuch (had a meh season), and got a 3rd (Dewar) back.

Pommer was injured in the Playoffs his first year, he probably shouldn't even have played the 2 games he did play that year. His 2nd-4th years he had 22p in 29 games. He was one of the few players on the team that showed up for the Playoffs.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I appreciate the chart but I don't honestly think any other team has drafted guys with literally zero goals in their draft seasons as the Wild have done. That's just a complete waste of a pick, as was picking a kid like Nanne's. If you have a 15% chance at something why would you instead choose to make it a zero percent chance? It's something this organization has decided to do.

Took me 2 tries to find a guy.

 

[Bazeek]

I appreciate the chart but I don't honestly think any other team has drafted guys with literally zero goals in their draft seasons as the Wild have done. That's just a complete waste of a pick, as was picking a kid like Nanne's. If you have a 15% chance at something why would you instead choose to make it a zero percent chance? It's something this organization has decided to do.

If the argument is just that these were bad picks then I agree.

If the argument is that wasting picks on the likes of Nanne, Misley, Gabriel and Belanger indicates a deeper problem with Minnesota that doesn't also afflict the rest of the league, I think that remains to be seen. Especially if the results end up being about in line with league-wide expectations.

 

[57special]

So, a 50/50 chance of finding a guy?

 

[MuckOG]

I appreciate the chart but I don't honestly think any other team has drafted guys with literally zero goals in their draft seasons as the Wild have done. That's just a complete waste of a pick, as was picking a kid like Nanne's. If you have a 15% chance at something why would you instead choose to make it a zero percent chance? It's something this organization has decided to do.

Not only didn't Jonas Brodin score a goal in his draft season, he never scored a single goal in his 2 full regular seasons in the Swedish league. .

 

[Wabit]

I understand that. I was just doing an "alternate timeline" that might have led the Wild to a Cup instead of the obvious limbo they're in now and forever will be in.

The OP suggests an "alternate timeline" where Parise/Suter didn't sign. I agree with others that on the whole, it was a good bet but one that has been undermined by the loophole of length and by other structural defects in the organization.

There's a lot of justified blame on Risebrough having weak drafts, plus too much success under Lemaire, then Fletcher coming in and not changing anyone on the scouting staff so that relatively weak drafting continued, and then Fletcher also trading first and second-round picks for players like Pominville and Hanzal and Chris Stewart.

When other teams use their mid-round picks on Jordan Binnington, Jamie Benn, Johnny Gaudreau, Brayden Point, et al. it does chafe me that the Wild's history is full of Bryce Misley, Kurtis Gabriel, Alexandre Belanger and Louie Nanne. Draft picks should not be punted, and this organization has done a lot of it.

The player drafted one pick after Misley by the way has more NHL goals this season than Misley had total points last season in college. Just a fourth-rounder though...

For all these mid-late round picks that you listed every team in the NHL, including the ones who draft them passed on a few times over. So the guys the these teams picked ahead of by their drafting team that turned into nothing. were those picks punted on too?

It's just odd to me to be fine with the Ladonia and Shaw picks, but upset about Misley.

These same scouts you're bagging on did pick Kemps and Haula with late picks. Found Spurgeon, Reilly, and Folin as FA.

 

[Wabit]

Took me 2 tries to find a guy.

Just look for a drafted goalie...

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Just look for a drafted goalie...

Excluding goalies, obviously.

Tampa Bay passed on Point twice in the 2nd round for two defensemen that haven't sniffed the NHL yet.

 

[Wabit]

For all the hate Gabriel has gotten, the guy did have 38 NHL games.

For a counter argument. So the team should be trading away their later round picks for guys like Aberg and Bitetto more often. It goes from a 15% chance to a 100% chance to get a NHL player for at least 20 games that way. Even the all 2nds we gave up over the years for rentals or turned into NHL player, at least in the short term.

Drafting is a lot of guess work, hopefully educated guess work, but still guesswor;k even at the very top of the draft. Look at the 2012 draft of the top-4 G. Reinhart was a complete bust , Yak would be a 2nd? rounder, Chucky a mid-late 1st, and at least 4 other d-men go before Murray.

Missing on Cuma, Phillips, and Thelian bother me more than not picking the "right guy" in the 4th round.

 

[Bazeek]

For all the hate Gabriel has gotten, the guy did have 38 NHL games.

For a counter argument. So the team should be trading away their later round picks for guys like Aberg and Bitetto more often. It goes from a 15% chance to a 100% chance to get a NHL player for at least 20 games that way. Even the all 2nds we gave up over the years for rentals or turned into NHL player, at least in the short term.

Drafting is a lot of guess work, hopefully educated guess work, but still guesswor;k even at the very top of the draft. Look at the 2012 draft of the top-4 G. Reinhart was a complete bust , Yak would be a 2nd? rounder, Chucky a mid-late 1st, and at least 4 other d-men go before Murray.

Missing on Cuma, Phillips, and Thelian bother me more than not picking the "right guy" in the 4th round.

Even Cuma seemed alright until he got killed by injuries.

 

[Wabit]

Even Cuma seemed alright until he got killed by injuries.

Well you could add Pouiout (4oa), and Sheppard (9oa), Gillies (16oa). The all had NHL careers but wouldn't come close to their draft spots that in any re-drafts.

 

[Bazeek]

Well you could add Pouiout (4oa), and Sheppard (9oa), Gillies (16oa). The all had NHL careers but wouldn't come close to their draft spots that in any re-drafts.

I think Pouliot and Sheppard may have been forgivable without the benefit of hindsight.

Gillies seemed like a disappointment from the day he was drafted, even with modest expectations for a mid 1st. Seemed like another wave of fallout from that 2007 playoff series.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Not only didn't Jonas Brodin score a goal in his draft season, he never scored a single goal in his 2 full regular seasons in the Swedish league. .

And if we're still discussing things that might have made the Wild "more successful" in a counter-factual way... wouldn't drafting Rakell or Kucherov instead of Brodin been such a move?

Guys who don't score as amateurs aren't likely to score as pros. Teams that don't outscore their opposition very often sit in limbo.

Obviously, Wild scouts have identified some good players over the years but the misses have hurt and some of those have been the results of a faulty organization-wide process.

Mason Shaw was a terrific pick, who scored in his draft season at the same rate as Tyler Ennis (a first-rounder of course) did. Bryce Misley was a weird pick, like Filip Johansson, Raphael Bussieres, Jacob Golden, Pontus Sjalin, Alex Belanger all were. Yes, every team misses but what I'm saying is you should miss for the right reasons.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Alex Belanger, as a 7th rounder, had fairly similar draft year stats as Jordan Binnington, one of your shining examples of mid-round successes.

 

[MuckOG]

And if we're still discussing things that might have made the Wild "more successful" in a counter-factual way... wouldn't drafting Rakell or Kucherov instead of Brodin been such a move?

Guys who don't score as amateurs aren't likely to score as pros. Teams that don't outscore their opposition very often sit in limbo.

.

I agree with this overall....but I also think that which amateur league the prospect is playing in matters. The SweHL is a much more competitive league than any junior league in Canada, so you need to take that into consideration when comparing offensive stats.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Alex Belanger, as a 7th rounder, had fairly similar draft year stats as Jordan Binnington, one of your shining examples of mid-round successes.

Do you think he's a bust? What is the point here?

The Blues obviously have a better scouting staff than the Wild's, even if Binnington is more of a development/patience success story.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Do you think he's a bust? What is the point here?

The Blues obviously have a better scouting staff than the Wild's, even if Binnington is more of a development/patience success story.

No. I don’t think a 7th rounder can “bust”.

My point is that there’s no justification for it being a “throwaway pick”. Except for knowing 6 years later that he didn’t work out.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Do you think he's a bust? What is the point here?

The Blues obviously have a better scouting staff than the Wild's, even if Binnington is more of a development/patience success story.

Don’t know if you can really draw this conclusion

 

[Wabit]

And if we're still discussing things that might have made the Wild "more successful" in a counter-factual way... wouldn't drafting Rakell or Kucherov instead of Brodin been such a move?

Guys who don't score as amateurs aren't likely to score as pros. Teams that don't outscore their opposition very often sit in limbo.

Obviously, Wild scouts have identified some good players over the years but the misses have hurt and some of those have been the results of a faulty organization-wide process.

Mason Shaw was a terrific pick, who scored in his draft season at the same rate as Tyler Ennis (a first-rounder of course) did. Bryce Misley was a weird pick, like Filip Johansson, Raphael Bussieres, Jacob Golden, Pontus Sjalin, Alex Belanger all were. Yes, every team misses but what I'm saying is you should miss for the right reasons.

Drafting them over Phillips would have made the team much better. So from 10ao the Wild should have reached for the guy taken 30oa, or the guy taken 58oa? Trochek (64), Gaudreu (104), and Palat (208) could also be in the conversation.

Hockeyprospects had Misley at #116 (he was the 116th pick). So it's not like it was an off the board pick of any kind at the time. I have no clue why they picked him over anyone taken after him in the draft. It could be something simple like they liked he was going the college route and they would have more time to see if he was worth a 50 man roster spot that set him ahead of the others.

What are the right reasons to miss? Good stat lines? Ennis had 46 goals, Shaw had 27g, and the same number of points. You can find 7th rounders and undrafted with the same amount of goals.

Looking through the hindsight lenses is a much different perspective than looking through the draft day lenses. Good picks on draft day turn into wasted/bad picks in hindsight every draft.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Drafting them over Phillips would have made the team much better. So from 10ao the Wild should have reached for the guy taken 30oa, or the guy taken 58oa? Trochek (64), Gaudreu (104), and Palat (208) could also be in the conversation.

Hockeyprospects had Misley at #116 (he was the 116th pick). So it's not like it was an off the board pick of any kind at the time. I have no clue why they picked him over anyone taken after him in the draft. It could be something simple like they liked he was going the college route and they would have more time to see if he was worth a 50 man roster spot that set him ahead of the others.

What are the right reasons to miss? Good stat lines? Ennis had 46 goals, Shaw had 27g, and the same number of points. You can find 7th rounders and undrafted with the same amount of goals.

Looking through the hindsight lenses is a much different perspective than looking through the draft day lenses. Good picks on draft day turn into wasted/bad picks in hindsight every draft.

Does that need to be pointed out? My point is it's not hindsight when on draft day you can say: Filip Johansson was a reach, Raphael Bussieres was a reach/bizarre pick, Nanne a wasted pick. Yes, a good stat line is a good reason to miss. Better than a kid with no stat line and little upside. And if you have scouts that argue forcibly for players like that, it was time to dump them ten years ago, not two.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Every team makes similar picks to guys like Bussieries.

 

[Wabit]

Does that need to be pointed out? My point is it's not hindsight when on draft day you can say: Filip Johansson was a reach, Raphael Bussieres was a reach/bizarre pick, Nanne a wasted pick. Yes, a good stat line is a good reason to miss. Better than a kid with no stat line and little upside. And if you have scouts that argue forcibly for players like that, it was time to dump them ten years ago, not two.

If Nanne had the name Joe Blow you wouldn't care about the pick. His draft year stat line was fine for a 7th round flier. At the very least the pick bought the Wild some good local press; MN hockey fans do love the #oneofus picks.

FJ wasn't a good pick (nobody here will argue that) now or on his draft day; but as you've said a bunch of times he was the 2nd highest (or whatever) rated Euro d-man.