Would LA still pick Byfield in a redraft?

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Seriously.

The draft is always a crapshoot. You have to make projections based on very incomplete information.

The new information you have from the 2020-21 season, from the various leagues and tournaments they've played in, is extremely valuable information. It shows the players at a closer to mature level of development playing in higher pro leagues. That would be the first thing scouts looked at if you gave them a new player to watch.

You use every bit of new information you can. "It's too early" isn't something you get to say when the draft happens, you make a pick with whatever info you can get. If the draft was held today it would be the same thing.

But id bet neither you nor that dude have actually watched all the games played by the 3. I doubt anyone in this thread has. For those few people on earth who have actually done it, only a small number of them know enough to actually come up with a well thought out analysis.

This thread is just a bunch of stat watchers offering up poorly considered hot takes with an occasional sprinkle of logic

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

It was pretty much a coin flip on Draft Day. Since then, Stützle has only impressed in the WJC and NHL, and Byfield has only disappointed in the WJC and AHL.

I like Byfield, but of course LA would change their selection.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I personally would’ve picked Stutzle over Byfield, but I 100% get why the Kings took Byfield. If his development goes well you have a special talent on their hands. But he was always a longer term investment and was going to need more time since he was such a raw prospect.

 

[ello]

Seriously.

The draft is always a crapshoot. You have to make projections based on very incomplete information.

The new information you have from the 2020-21 season, from the various leagues and tournaments they've played in, is extremely valuable information. It shows the players at a closer to mature level of development playing in higher pro leagues. That would be the first thing scouts looked at if you gave them a new player to watch.

You use every bit of new information you can. "It's too early" isn't something you get to say when the draft happens, you make a pick with whatever info you can get. If the draft was held today it would be the same thing.

This. For people saying it’s “way too early to make projections”, draft eligible players consistently have their stock shoot up based solely on a couple international tournaments or a good playoffs, so I’m sure a two month stint in the NHL would have quite a bit of sway in their decision.

Stutzle and Byfield have been comparable since day one, so no it’s not like Seguin vs Skinner where Seguin was clearly the much talented prospect from day one.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'm still taking Byfield

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Offended by it...not at all. It's bold, but Stutzle is a phenomenal player already.

But holding Stutzle's early development against Byfield is stupid, especially given the consensus re: Byfield needing time.

Stutzle popping I guess earlier than expected doesn't change that, hence the premise of the thread being faulty.




yeah if there's one thing la sucks at it's drafting right

Most notable draft pick from at least 10 years ago is Tanner Pearson...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It was pretty much a coin flip on Draft Day. Since then, Stützle has only impressed in the WJC and NHL, and Byfield has only disappointed in the WJC and AHL.

I like Byfield, but of course LA would change their selection.

Please, elaborate on Byfield's AHL play.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Most notable draft pick from at least 10 years ago is Tanner Pearson...

What

 

[Adele Dazeem]

What

Good one,
Are we considering Vilardi, Byfield and Turcotte surefire bets to be good NHLers. Probably, but they aren't there yet.

Unless you mean Kempe or Roy, LA has had a very poor draft history in the past 10 years.

 

[Agent Zub]

Offended by it...not at all. It's bold, but Stutzle is a phenomenal player already.

But holding Stutzle's early development against Byfield is stupid, especially given the consensus re: Byfield needing time.

Stutzle popping I guess earlier than expected doesn't change that, hence the premise of the thread being faulty.




yeah if there's one thing la sucks at it's drafting right

It's not holding Stutzles early start against Byfield, it's just confirmation that Stutzle is and will be a special player.

I had the belief that Stutzle was going to be a potential HoFer before the season started, and two months into it he's only confirmed the projection so far. That's huge.

Things might change going forward but as of now Stutzle is the least risky and arguably highest upside as well. Every GM would flip their pick based on that.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Good one,
Are we considering Vilardi, Byfield and Turcotte surefire bets to be good NHLers. Probably, but they aren't there yet.

Unless you mean Kempe or Roy, LA has had a very poor draft history in the past 10 years.

Considering Vilardi is literally currently centering our 2nd line and was up there in rookie goal leaders last i checked yeah there's a good bet he'll be ok.

La won 2 cups with both top picks like Kopitar and Doughty, mid picks like Voynov, Quick, Toffoli, Pearson and late picks like Martinez, King, Nolan throughout their lineup and did well enough with the rest that they were able to parlay them into roster completing assets.

You're calling the years the won the Cups "poor drafting" years...they were purging assets left and right to stay competitive, yet STILL pulled Kubalik, Cernak, Colin Miller from mid rounds, they just weren't on the Kings' roster.

And then now with arguably the top farm system in the league...you want to say poor draft history? Bold. Kempe, Roy from the 7th round, Bjornfot is already a 2nd pairing guy, Mikey Anderson has been Doughty's partner. Anderson-Dolan looked like Point-lite before getting hurt. Clague was great, Strand surprised--then both got caught in the numbers game. Kupari was leading the AHL in scoring before getting taxi'd, and then plenty of prospects are blowing it up overseas as well. And that's before the REAL meat arrives, like Byfield, Turcotte. And there's much more. You just really, really have to be burying your head in the sand on this one bud.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's not holding Stutzles early start against Byfield, it's just confirmation that Stutzle is and will be a special player.

I had the belief that Stutzle was going to be a potential HoFer before the season started, and two months into it he's only confirmed the projection so far. That's huge.

Things might change going forward but as of now Stutzle is the least risky and arguably highest upside as well. Every GM would flip their pick based on that.

The boldfaced is obviously debatable and the reason people wouldn't flip their pick on 20 games.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Considering Vilardi is literally currently centering our 2nd line and was up there in rookie goal leaders last i checked yeah there's a good bet he'll be ok.

La won 2 cups with both top picks like Kopitar and Doughty, mid picks like Voynov, Quick, Toffoli, Pearson and late picks like Martinez, King, Nolan throughout their lineup and did well enough with the rest that they were able to parlay them into roster completing assets.

You're calling the years the won the Cups "poor drafting" years...they were purging assets left and right to stay competitive, yet STILL pulled Kubalik, Cernak, Colin Miller from mid rounds, they just weren't on the Kings' roster.

And then now with arguably the top farm system in the league...you want to say poor draft history? Bold. Kempe, Roy from the 7th round, Bjornfot is already a 2nd pairing guy, Mikey Anderson has been Doughty's partner. Anderson-Dolan looked like Point-lite before getting hurt. Clague was great, Strand surprised--then both got caught in the numbers game. Kupari was leading the AHL in scoring before getting taxi'd, and then plenty of prospects are blowing it up overseas as well. And that's before the REAL meat arrives, like Byfield, Turcotte. And there's much more. You just really, really have to be burying your head in the sand on this one bud.

President of the Vilardi Fan Club, I apologize for not knowing how thick your homer goggles are. My bad, truly.

 

[Agent Zub]

The boldfaced is obviously debatable and the reason people wouldn't flip their pick on 20 games.

Yes it's definitely debatable but I'd argue that you can make the best case for Stutzle having the highest upside of the three.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yes it's definitely debatable but I'd argue that you can make the best case for Stutzle having the highest upside of the three.

Yeah you absolutely can. I wouldn't battle you on that either because I don't think that's changed one iota since the draft. I think it's been apparent all along that any of the top three could have run away with that. I could make a case on Byfield and I'm sure others could on Laf as well. Definitely not beyond the realm of possibility that any of the three really separates. I just think this soon after the draft is too soon to be second guessing the pick knowing Quinton wasn't going to be in the NHL this year.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

President of the Vilardi Fan Club, I apologize for not knowing how thick your homer goggles are. My bad, truly.

What did I say that was wrong? I'm all ears.

Because "La sucks at drafting especially in this arbitrary time period when I completely ignore players I don't know offhand" is a hell of a take that you haven't even tried to defend without this butthurt retort.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Conceptually, you draft for the longer-term and there's still a very good argument that Byfield will be more valuable.

In reality though, you can now see that Stutzle is pretty much a sure thing and so you would almost certainly be swayed by that. But you don't get to see players play in the NHL before you make the pick.

So I think they actually would switch the pick, but Byfield is so young and he's still clearly on a development curve to be a big, dominant #1 centre. LA isn't in a position where they need to win now, so they can be patient and develop him right.

 

[MNRube]

I think its very fair to think they may now prefer Stutzle. It was close at the draft and Stutzle has only improved his stock since then while Byfield's stock has remained steady at best.

 

[bsu]

I don't think Byfield will ever be as good as Stutzle, said it before the draft happened and even more confident in saying it now. There were a couple players I would have took over him. Of course he could turn into a beast and prove us all wrong.

 

[Zach716]

Hard to say. Guys that big at that age take awhile to get used to their body, short term I think most would prefer Stutzle while Byfield will probably take longer to develop. I do think Stutzle can be a superstar in this league though.

 

[doorbag]

Way too early to tell. I’m sure there were a lot of people asking it Edmonton screwed up by picking Drai instead of Bennett and look at them now. Maybe this will be a good question two years from now.

 

[Hockey Stick]

I have to say, I am honestly amazed that nobody has tried to pull the "He's doing better cause he's playing in a weak division" bs on Stuetzle yet, and they're actually giving him credit for being a stud.

That said, I do believe that things would fall the same way if they redrafted right now. Byfield could flop, but he's got a very high ceiling

 

[Agent Zub]

The boldfaced is obviously debatable and the reason people wouldn't flip their pick on 20 games.

Like someone mentioned teams can change their lists based on junior playoffs and short international tournaments.

20 NHL games where a player has demonstrated massive upside as well as substance when that is so hard to do as a rookie means a lot. And it's not like it's just the 20 NHL games. He's looked special all the time.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

I honestly can't believe people in here are saying that not only would LA change the pick. But that's it's 100% certain. If you're organization functioned like that, you should be very worried.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

What did I say that was wrong? I'm all ears.

Because "La sucks at drafting especially in this arbitrary time period when I completely ignore players I don't know offhand" is a hell of a take that you haven't even tried to defend without this butthurt retort.

I get it you want to defend your team, but your exaggeration of the prospects LA has is nothing short of homerism.
Bjornfot, Turcotte, Kupari, Clague are not surefire NHLers, they've had less than stellar starts so far (way too early to write them off, but also way too early to say they were good picks).

As far as your comment on drafting during "Contender" years you still had plenty of 2nd rounders and many of them turned out to bust (Zykov, Gibson, McKeown, Lintuniemi). It's also not like you had lower end 1st round picks. You didn't mention the Teubert and Forbort picks.
Also you named three players LA drafted but didn't keep; only Kubalik is a good pick the rest are dime a dozen.
Your next batch of "stars" have been decent in the minor leagues, but I wouldn't be shocked if any of them become more than bottom-6ers. Similar to the Kempe, Amadio type.
Anderson-Dolan looking like Point-lite is funny. If 6 games is enough to warrant that term, than Max Lajoie was Karlsson-lite.
Mikey Anderson has looked good alongside Doughty, but that could be more of Doughty making it easy on him; time will tell.