Yep. When you have been in the league 13 seasons and you have only scored less than 45 goals four of those seasons (one of which was strike shortened) you are a pretty damn consistent goal scoring machine.
Would another Rocket this year cement OV as the GOAT Goal-scorer?
- Thread starter Varan
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Yep. When you have been in the league 13 seasons and you have only scored less than 45 goals four of those seasons (one of which was strike shortened) you are a pretty damn consistent goal scoring machine.
hockeykicker
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WingsFan95
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hockeykicker
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Uncle Scrooge
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ManwithNoIdentity
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Pucklington
Expat in Germany.
Sentinel
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TheDoldrums
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Congrats to Ovechkin on another Rocket. The greatest goal scorer ever in my opinion.
Will be fun to see if he can hold off Matthews and Laine next year.
Will be fun to see if he can hold off Matthews and Laine next year.
PB12
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- Jul 7, 2015
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Some more numbers on OV and his competitors for the best goal-scorer of all time title.
First the easy part:
Goals leads over #10 in goals, in %
Ovechkin 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-26-15-6
Lemieux 85-47-46-29-28-5-4-0
Brett Hull 91-67-60-24-12-0-0-0
Mike Bossy 73-42-33-33-28-26-25-9-9
Even though Lemieux missed a lot of time, the edge Ovechkin has over him is pretty striking. Lemieux has one-year peak on Ovechkin, but the best three years are already close, the best five are clearly in Ovechkin's favor, and outside of that there is no comparison.
Lemieux vs. Brett Hull makes for an interesting comparison, which shows that superior peak can be overcome by longevity, since everyone would agree that Lemieux was a better goal-scorer than Hull Jr.
Mike Bossy, often brought up in these discussions for whatever reason, loses to Ovechkin by a landslide outside of one-year peak. True, Bossy was very consistent, but he was consistent at the level of Ovechkin was this season, and Ovechkin was consistent at a much higher level pre-30.
First the easy part:
Goals leads over #10 in goals, in %
Ovechkin 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-26-15-6
Lemieux 85-47-46-29-28-5-4-0
Brett Hull 91-67-60-24-12-0-0-0
Mike Bossy 73-42-33-33-28-26-25-9-9
Even though Lemieux missed a lot of time, the edge Ovechkin has over him is pretty striking. Lemieux has one-year peak on Ovechkin, but the best three years are already close, the best five are clearly in Ovechkin's favor, and outside of that there is no comparison.
Lemieux vs. Brett Hull makes for an interesting comparison, which shows that superior peak can be overcome by longevity, since everyone would agree that Lemieux was a better goal-scorer than Hull Jr.
Mike Bossy, often brought up in these discussions for whatever reason, loses to Ovechkin by a landslide outside of one-year peak. True, Bossy was very consistent, but he was consistent at the level of Ovechkin was this season, and Ovechkin was consistent at a much higher level pre-30.
Plural
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At this point, he's in the conversation for the greatest ever. I think most are hesitant to rank him as #1 because his playoff scoring is bit lacking. However, there already is good arguments for him as the #1. If (and that's a big if) he can lead the league in goals once more, then he arguably would have the best case for #1.
In my books, he's in the top-3 with Bobby Hull and Mario Lemieux.
In my books, he's in the top-3 with Bobby Hull and Mario Lemieux.
Additional analysis on Ovechkin vs. O6-era stars.
The basis of the analysis is the fact that in 1944-1968, the goal-scoring title winner led #5 in goals, on average, by 45%, and in 1997-2018, the goal-scoring title winner carried a similar lead (44%) over #10. Thus, for the O6-era players I am comparing % leads over #5 with Ovechkin's % leads over #10
Ovechkin 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-26-15-6
Richard 79-62-61-59-42-31-31-8-6-4
3-year peak and 5-year peak go Richard's way, the rest of the career is Ovechkin by probably an even bigger margin, but here is a caveat: Richard's best season, with 79% lead over #5, happened in 1944/45, when many players were in the army. If one assumes that with those players present he would have had a smaller margin of victory, say, 50%, then the 5-year peaks of Ovechkin and Richard become indistinguishable (and the rest of the career is Ovechkin by a landslide).
Thus, I think that with the current season under the belt, Ovechkin has passed Richard for sure.
Then there is Howe and his numbers
Gordie Howe 81-74-65-42-31-30-27-15-10-3-0
Ovechkin 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-26-15-6
Three-year peak is Howe for sure, 5-year peak still Howe, but it is close, and then the amazing happens and Ovechkin clearly beats Howe in terms of longevity as a top goal-scorer.
One way to compare the longevity against the superior peak is to break it this way:
3-year peak
Gordie Howe 81-74-65
Ovechkin 63-61-52
Tail-end of the career
Gordie Howe 42-31-30-27-15-10-3-0
Ovechkin 44-43-30-26-15-6
And then Ovechkin has two dominant goal-scoring title wins with 52% and 50% margin that went unmatched.
The tail ends cancel out - Howe has two more marginal top5 finishes, which would be a tad better than Ovechkin's 16/17, when he was 1 goal behind #10, but the second season in the series is Ovechkin's way by a good margin.
So the question is, 81-74-65 or 63-61-52-52-50? Would you have an even more dominant peak Ovechkin (plus 7-8 goals to his 65-goal season) for three years or would you rather have two extra dominant goal-scoring titles? This is not an easy choice; you can go all in and think that an improved version of peak Ovechkin wins you all there is to win in three years or you can play safe and have two more awesome goal-scoring years in case luck is not on your side in the first three.
I am leaning to the latter option with two extra dominant years, and the current season made the choice easier by making the tail ends a wash.
The basis of the analysis is the fact that in 1944-1968, the goal-scoring title winner led #5 in goals, on average, by 45%, and in 1997-2018, the goal-scoring title winner carried a similar lead (44%) over #10. Thus, for the O6-era players I am comparing % leads over #5 with Ovechkin's % leads over #10
Ovechkin 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-26-15-6
Richard 79-62-61-59-42-31-31-8-6-4
3-year peak and 5-year peak go Richard's way, the rest of the career is Ovechkin by probably an even bigger margin, but here is a caveat: Richard's best season, with 79% lead over #5, happened in 1944/45, when many players were in the army. If one assumes that with those players present he would have had a smaller margin of victory, say, 50%, then the 5-year peaks of Ovechkin and Richard become indistinguishable (and the rest of the career is Ovechkin by a landslide).
Thus, I think that with the current season under the belt, Ovechkin has passed Richard for sure.
Then there is Howe and his numbers
Gordie Howe 81-74-65-42-31-30-27-15-10-3-0
Ovechkin 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-26-15-6
Three-year peak is Howe for sure, 5-year peak still Howe, but it is close, and then the amazing happens and Ovechkin clearly beats Howe in terms of longevity as a top goal-scorer.
One way to compare the longevity against the superior peak is to break it this way:
3-year peak
Gordie Howe 81-74-65
Ovechkin 63-61-52
Tail-end of the career
Gordie Howe 42-31-30-27-15-10-3-0
Ovechkin 44-43-30-26-15-6
And then Ovechkin has two dominant goal-scoring title wins with 52% and 50% margin that went unmatched.
The tail ends cancel out - Howe has two more marginal top5 finishes, which would be a tad better than Ovechkin's 16/17, when he was 1 goal behind #10, but the second season in the series is Ovechkin's way by a good margin.
So the question is, 81-74-65 or 63-61-52-52-50? Would you have an even more dominant peak Ovechkin (plus 7-8 goals to his 65-goal season) for three years or would you rather have two extra dominant goal-scoring titles? This is not an easy choice; you can go all in and think that an improved version of peak Ovechkin wins you all there is to win in three years or you can play safe and have two more awesome goal-scoring years in case luck is not on your side in the first three.
I am leaning to the latter option with two extra dominant years, and the current season made the choice easier by making the tail ends a wash.
- Aug 12, 2008
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Marcel Dionne, Ray bourque (till he joined his super team). Wont defend Ovis dismal personal olympic stats. I can agree with you that Ovi could be slightly better in the playoffs. Ovi could probably better his 8th place ppg amongst active playoff scorers and 55th ALLTIME or he could actually have the team put people around him that show up in the playoffs. Look at the past 6 SC winners and tell me how many future HOFs were the only ones on their team and won? Bet you wont find one team like that. Backstrom is the closest thing to a future HOF and guess what, if he doesnt get a cup he probably is not getting in. Wont agree or disagree with the leadership thing because other then on ice visual leadership performance, no one on this board or watching hockey knows anything about what is or is not said during games or off the ice.
- Jan 11, 2006
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All these numbers are great but you can’t compare eras. The game is different. Weather it’s easier or harder, it is different. There’s no doubt OVI is a top goal scorer. Goat is just opinion based just like Gretzky vs Lemieux. You can also bring in the regular season vs playoffs. I don’t think OVI has anything but to be proud of his career either way. Great player.
tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
This is one of those things that takes a lot of time and perspective to become real.
I wasn’t around to be involved in the arguments, but I have little doubt that fans in the 1970s were reluctant to acknowledge that an aging Bobby Hull was surpassing Maurice Richard as GOAT goal scorer. The numbers are one thing, but there is a lot of emotion tied up in the way things play out. Richard was a unique cultural icon who led his teams to the peak of glory... Hull was a loud-mouthed WHA traitor who had a shaky playoffs reputation. In retrospect, with his entire career in view, there’s little doubt of Hull’s argument. But I doubt it seemed so at the time.
Likewise we now have Ovechkin closing in on Hull. Time has transformed Hull into not just a goal scoring machine, but a “golden era” icon and one of the most influential players of all time. Ovechkin is brash and controversial, with a shaky playoff reputation and the inevitable pro/anti Russian factor in play. It’s hard to see him clearly from this close up, with so much still unknown.
But I do think this is becoming a much closer call than a lot of people realize. It’s not just about the “today’s game >>> all” crowd boosting a current player anymore. Ovie really has made a case for himself and continues to add to that case in the face of age and controversy. And if we’re being honest, it only takes ONE playoff run to end the narrative that he doesn’t show up in April. One run to silence his critics, and I have a feeling this is one of those things where we wake up one day and realize Ovie has hit “golden boy” status and made it very difficult for the next guy coming up the ranks.
I wasn’t around to be involved in the arguments, but I have little doubt that fans in the 1970s were reluctant to acknowledge that an aging Bobby Hull was surpassing Maurice Richard as GOAT goal scorer. The numbers are one thing, but there is a lot of emotion tied up in the way things play out. Richard was a unique cultural icon who led his teams to the peak of glory... Hull was a loud-mouthed WHA traitor who had a shaky playoffs reputation. In retrospect, with his entire career in view, there’s little doubt of Hull’s argument. But I doubt it seemed so at the time.
Likewise we now have Ovechkin closing in on Hull. Time has transformed Hull into not just a goal scoring machine, but a “golden era” icon and one of the most influential players of all time. Ovechkin is brash and controversial, with a shaky playoff reputation and the inevitable pro/anti Russian factor in play. It’s hard to see him clearly from this close up, with so much still unknown.
But I do think this is becoming a much closer call than a lot of people realize. It’s not just about the “today’s game >>> all” crowd boosting a current player anymore. Ovie really has made a case for himself and continues to add to that case in the face of age and controversy. And if we’re being honest, it only takes ONE playoff run to end the narrative that he doesn’t show up in April. One run to silence his critics, and I have a feeling this is one of those things where we wake up one day and realize Ovie has hit “golden boy” status and made it very difficult for the next guy coming up the ranks.
nowhereman
Registered User
At this point, he's still behind Gretzky and Lemieux, just looking at raw totals. But, if you base it off ability, it's not even remotely close. Gretzky was a pass-first player and, even then, the guy still put up close to 100 goals per season. Lemieux is not that far off, as well. If those guys had adopted OV's shoot-first, shoot-second, shoot-at-all-costs mentality, they would have even more ridiculous totals.
OV is in Bossy/Hull/Richard territory, which isn't anything to be ashamed about.
IMO, Crosby and Malkin's games are more suited to playoff success than Ovechkin's (both in terms of the position they play and the way they play it) and that's why, no matter how much I like OV, I would take him third behind the other two.
OV is in Bossy/Hull/Richard territory, which isn't anything to be ashamed about.
Ovechkin can have all the excuses he wants but, at the end of the day, he's played on a stacked team for more than a decade and has failed to get it done. He's one of the all-time greats and deserves ever bit of praise that he gets but there are far too many excuses for his lack of playoff success. He has to own some of that. Crosby and Malkin had to own their playoff failures, back when they played with table scraps for wingers (and Crosby still does), so OV is not immune to criticism.
IMO, Crosby and Malkin's games are more suited to playoff success than Ovechkin's (both in terms of the position they play and the way they play it) and that's why, no matter how much I like OV, I would take him third behind the other two.
Last edited:
- Feb 10, 2010
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Ovechkin has 500 assists to go with his 600 goals. Perhaps he is more of a playmaker than you are giving credit for.
Last edited:
Sentinel
Registered User
As I said numerous times: Ovechkin is certainly in the conversation for the "greatest goalscorer of all time," along with SEVEN other players. The problem is: these seven other players have something he simply doesn't have: legendary playoff performances.
In RS Ovechkin has already surpassed everyone, except Gretzky and maybe Hull Sr. In playoffs he is behind everybody, even Hull Jr.
In RS Ovechkin has already surpassed everyone, except Gretzky and maybe Hull Sr. In playoffs he is behind everybody, even Hull Jr.
nowhereman
Registered User
Ovechkin is a very talented playmaker but I would never say that he's a pass-first or even pass-second player like Gretzky and Lemieux were. You don't put up those kind of shot totals if you're not thinking shoot-first, shoot-from-anywhere. He's basically the goalscoring version of Crosby in that he's exceptionally good at goalscoring but could be a great playmaker if he changed his game to more of a pass-first mentality. Gretzky and Lemieux were more like better versions of Sid, in that they were the league's best playmakers but could score almost at will if they wanted. So, when you consider that their goal totals were already ridiculous (and arguably better than Ovechkin's), you have to have them as the #1 and #2 goalscorers of all time.
OV is in the fight for #3.
I am not sure what Lemieux has on Ovechkin in terms of goal-scoring, other than raw numbers and what-ifs.
VsX goals, best 7 years average: Ovechkin 59.5, Lemieux 54.5
VsX goals, best 10 years average: Ovechkin 56.5, Lemieux 49.9
Goals leads over #10 in goals, in %
Ovechkin 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-26-15-6
Lemieux 85-47-46-29-28-5-4-0
Goals leads over #5 in goals, in %
Ovechkin 51-43-40-39-38-32-24-19-7-4-0
Lemieux 67-37-35-15-4-4
And I know Lemieux missed a lot of time and was a much, much better playmaker, but you nearly have to imagine a second career for Lemieux in terms of goal-scoring, just as good as the one he had, to put him on the same level as Ovechkin as a goal-scorer.
It is Howe/Hull/Richard territory, and that's the leading group.
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