Would another Rocket this year cement OV as the GOAT Goal-scorer?

[Fantomas]

Except his 605 career goals barely have him inside the top 20 of all time. How can he be the greatest if he's not actually the greatest?

We have a real cosmic brain over here.

 

[Fantomas]

Maurice Richard doesn't even have 600 career goals. How can he be among the greatest?

 

[JT Kreider]

Maurice Richard doesn't even have 600 career goals. How can he be among the greatest?

Which is why I said it's impossible to compare across other eras

 

[Fantomas]

Which is why I said it's impossible to compare across other eras

Maybe you have said enough.

 

[Caps8112]

Maybe so. But still. Staal won with Canes. Getzlaf in Anaheim, St Louis in Tampa. Those teams were hardly better than the Caps dito. In fact add Detroit's last win too. Most of their great players were over the hill.

Ovechkin might not have squandered them away but he hasn't lifted them either. A great leader lifts a team. It is too easy just claiming all the winners were stacked. Like I said, Had Caps won 3 SC like the Pens, Ovie, Backstrom and Holtby would all be HoFers and in hindsight people would have called the team stacked.

I may be misunderstanding you but IMO all of those teams were better then the caps or atleast equal to the caps of the last two years if not better. All 3 teams were top 5 teams the entire seasons they won. Getzlaf was a rookie on an absolutely stacked team anchored by 2 top ten HOF dmen. Carlson is nowhere near a pronger or Niedermayer. Staal had Francis, Williams, Brindamour, Recchi, Weight, Whitney and Cole. St louis had Prime Lecavalier, Richards and Boyle. Its hard to remember now but these were all top 50 players (including the dmen) at the time. Just out of curiosity which Caps dman in the Ovi era even comes close to any of the ones mentioned above. You can win without one ala the canes but it sure does help to have them. Again may be misunderstanding your point but thos 3 teams were stacked. I think the caps had a great team the last 2 years and would have beaten everyone else had they gotten thru Pitt but Ovi has never had a stacked team of HOFs like gretzky, Lemieux and Crosby to a lesser extent. Malkin is a HOF and the 2nd best center in the league. Letang will be a borderline HOF when all is said and done.

 

[Zuluss]

Top five now, could finish top two. No one touches Gretzky though, era adjusted or not, as good as Ovechkin has been against his peers, Gretzky was next level against his.

In terms of goal-scoring, Gretzky is not the strongest competition Ovechkin has. In fact, Ovechkin is probably ahead of him in this department already.

Here are some stats comparing the two:

Goal-scoring titles, as well as top3/top5/top10 finishes in goals
Gretzky: 5*1st, 5*top3, 8*top5, 9*top10
Ovechkin: 7*1st, 9*top3, 11*top5, 11*top10

So this is the problem with Gretzky: his time as a goal-scoring title contender was quite limited. Outside of his goal-scoring title seasons, he never finished in top3, and disappeared from top10 rather fast. Compare him to Maurice Richard, for example:
Richard: 5*1st, 9*top3, 13*top5, 14*top10
Now, that's some longevity, and Ovechkin is coming close now, missing a couple of top5/top10 finishes to match Richard, but Gretzky never came close.

You can see that in more detail comparing their % leads over #5 in goals (leads over #5 are more comparable across eras, since they are less affected by the number of teams and influx in talent):
Gretzky 70-67-33-27-19-6-0-0
Ovechkin 51-43-40-39-38-32-24-19-7-4-0
While the two-year peak goes clearly Gretzky's way, starting with the third-best year Ovechkin has an edge, which quickly becomes ridiculous. And while I am big on peak, it is hard to ignore a clear difference that lasts almost for a decade, during which Ovechkin collects several dominant goal-scoring title wins and really strong runner-up campaigns.

% leads over #10 in goals go a bit more in Gretzky's favor (probably since finishing top10 took less in a 21-team league without Eastern Europeans vs. 30-team international league):
Gretzky: 85-85-59-48-48-17-15-13-9
Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-24-15-6
But still, the overall picture is the same: the peak goes to Gretzky, but it is all Ovechkin, and by an increasingly wider margin, after the third-best season. And again, peak is very important, but we are not talking here about Ovechkin collecting marginal top5 finishes, he stayed at goal-scoring-title-worthy level twice as long as Gretzky.

The real competitors of Ovechkin for the best-ever goal-scorer title are Bobby Hull and Gordie Howe, because I think Ovechkin passed Richard this year for sure.

 

[Samzilla]

So Messier is the 2nd best scorer in NHL history since he has 2nd in points?

you might want to re-check that

 

[Dustin]

Weren't people debating it even before he had the season he's had?

It's hard to compare across generations as so much has changed with the game but I can't see why people refuse to see the argument for Ovechkin.

 

[Pucklington]

Gretzky. Simple answer.

 

[pitcher]

Gretzky. Simple answer.

No. Not that simple eh?

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

you might want to re-check that

Youre right, Jagr isnt the second best ever either

 

[Machinehead]

No, but 895 will.

 

[third man in]

Maybe so. But still. Staal won with Canes. Getzlaf in Anaheim, St Louis in Tampa. Those teams were hardly better than the Caps dito. In fact add Detroit's last win too. Most of their great players were over the hill.

Ovechkin might not have squandered them away but he hasn't lifted them either. A great leader lifts a team. It is too easy just claiming all the winners were stacked. Like I said, Had Caps won 3 SC like the Pens, Ovie, Backstrom and Holtby would all be HoFers and in hindsight people would have called the team stacked.

I mean Crosby is considered a great leader ( because of the cups) but when he struggles to score in a series Malkin or lately Kessel is there to pick up the slack. 2 playoffs ago Ovechkin had more points then Crosby and Malkin combined and the Caps still lost the series. One player can't do it all. The Caps never have the team on all cylinders the the playoffs. They'll get crazy scoring but no defense. They'll get good sec scoring and defense but weak goaltending. They'll get good goaltending but one goal from the bottom 6. It's like Dante's inferno.

Maybe if Malkin was on the 2nd line the Caps would have 3 cups and the team would have been considered stacked. Oh well the misery of a Caps fan. Let's see what part of the team will unexpectedly fail this playoffs.

 

[Beukeboom]

I may be misunderstanding you but IMO all of those teams were better then the caps or atleast equal to the caps of the last two years if not better. All 3 teams were top 5 teams the entire seasons they won. Getzlaf was a rookie on an absolutely stacked team anchored by 2 top ten HOF dmen. Carlson is nowhere near a pronger or Niedermayer. Staal had Francis, Williams, Brindamour, Recchi, Weight, Whitney and Cole. St louis had Prime Lecavalier, Richards and Boyle. Its hard to remember now but these were all top 50 players (including the dmen) at the time. Just out of curiosity which Caps dman in the Ovi era even comes close to any of the ones mentioned above. You can win without one ala the canes but it sure does help to have them. Again may be misunderstanding your point but thos 3 teams were stacked. I think the caps had a great team the last 2 years and would have beaten everyone else had they gotten thru Pitt but Ovi has never had a stacked team of HOFs like gretzky, Lemieux and Crosby to a lesser extent. Malkin is a HOF and the 2nd best center in the league. Letang will be a borderline HOF when all is said and done.

I think that just calling every single SC winner a "stacked" team and that's why they win is a bit oversimplified. It kind of takes away a lot of the accomplishment of winning. There is a reason why players and coaches, people who are actually involved in the game, love winners. They understand how important they are. Are the 6 Messier SC just a result of stacked teams?

Ovechkin can't do it all himself but I don't think he is a leader type and that means Caps have no leader to step forward when the tough times starts. He doesn't even have a ppg record in the playoffs so his production is definitely not up to par with the regular season one.

What adds to this is his meager production in a super stacked Russia team in every major tournament (3 Olympic/1 Wcup). What are the excuses there? Because it seems like every other super elite player found ways to win in both NHL and their national teams. Is that a huge coincidence too? Is he really the only super elite player to never win any of the big trophies due to being unlucky with teams, overlooking the fact that he has not managed a ppg record in said tournaments?

 

[Peter Puck]

Many in here are saying that guys from the 80's and 90's and earlier just feasted upon poor goaltending. I don't agree.

However, I do think that the fact that OV hasn't been able to keep up his goal scoring rate during the playoffs is very telling. When he has the opportunity to perform in playoffs and international competitions, he just isn't as good as during random regular season games. He's not really in the conversation for best playoff scorer ever and I think that means that he is not the best goal scorer ever.

 

[Saku11]

Love how Crosby gets shat upon for winning Smythes and Ovi is the GOAt hero for not sucking in the playoffs, as if he doesent carry even a little blame on Caps failures. Different nationalities, different stantards, it is what it is i guesss.

 

[third man in]

Love how Crosby gets shat upon for winning Smythes and Ovi is the GOAt hero for not sucking in the playoffs, as if he doesent carry even a little blame on Caps failures. Different nationalities, different stantards, it is what it is i guesss.

My point isn't that Crosby sucks. My point is that if him or Malkin have a bad series, there's another franchise Center to pick up the slack allowing him the chance to win a Smythe. I haven't been really impressed with either of them the last 2 series against the Caps. Pens found a way to win and Crosby played better in other series to win the Smythe. He definitely didn't win it because of the Caps series.

 

[stampedingviking]

Already is IMO.

Agreed.

 

[Saku11]

I haven't been really impressed with either of them the last 2 series against the Caps.

Im sure you werent impressed, but he was the Penguins best player last year , so i think it tells more about you than Crosby.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

This could very well be his last Rocket, with guys like Laine, Matthews & now McDavid finding his scoring touch.

 

[Zuluss]

This could very well be his last Rocket, with guys like Laine, Matthews & now McDavid finding his scoring touch.

Only two players in history won the goal-scoring title at the age of 33 (Richard) and 34 (Howe).
Ovechkin turns 33 this summer; it will be an unbelievable thing if he wins again - which he still might with some luck on his side.

 

[unknown33]

No, best of his generation and top 3-5 though.
I think his leads werent dominant enough compared to lemieux, gretzky, bobby hull except his 65 season.

Order can be argued.

 

[Steve]

There is certainly debate and I’m open to him being in the discussion as GOAT goalscorer but when you don’t hold the record for goals then you can never be “cemented” as such. If you are not actually #1 you can never be definitivley the best it’s alwys debatable. Just my opinion.

 

[Beukeboom]

Only two players in history won the goal-scoring title at the age of 33 (Richard) and 34 (Howe).
Ovechkin turns 33 this summer; it will be an unbelievable thing if he wins again - which he still might with some luck on his side.

I hope he wins next season since I really like the guy (even if I think he has been underwhelming in the playoffs).

But I don't know if it is likely. I honestly think the 7 goals in his two first games kind of propelled this season to new heights. Besides the 7 goals it gave him in the race that is. It probably gave him an insane confidence to rebound from the season prior.

 

[Zuluss]

No, best of his generation and top 3-5 though.
I think his leads werent dominant enough compared to lemieux, gretzky, bobby hull except his 65 season.

Order can be argued.

Ovechkin has a flatter goal-scoring arc than almost all great goal-scorers.
On the one hand, that means that his 2-3-year peak is not as high as theirs.
On the other, it is hard not to be impressed by his longevity: he was carrying the goal-scoring-title worthy leads for more than a decade.
I did the comparison with Gretzky above: yes, Gretzky the goal-scorer has a visibly higher two-year peak, but after their 3rd-best season Gretzky falters very quickly, and Ovechkin fares much, much better than him.

Bobby Hull is from a six-team all-Canadian league, and Ovechkin is from a 30-team international league. It seems that it is much easier in the former case to accumulate things like top10 finishes and open wide leads over #10, since #10 in a six-team league is just an average first-line player.
The numbers bear it out: in 1944-1970, the average lead of the goal-scoring title winner over #5 was 45%. In 1996-2017, the average lead of the goal-scoring title winner over #10 was 44%, almost exactly the same.
So, leads over #5 (and top5 finishes) from 06 era are comparable to leads over #10 from the current era.

Bobby Hull's goals leads, in %
86-80-56-54-44-32-30-26-10-9-0
Ovechkin's goals leads, in %
63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-24-15-6

Bobby Hull is a tougher competitor than Gretzky in the goal-scoring department: best 2 years go to him, years 3-5 are a wash, and after that it is all Ovechkin.
On the one hand, you do not compare players on their 7th-best season. On the other, Ovechkin's 9th-best goal-scoring season is this season's goal-scoring title and his 7th-best goal-scoring season is the injury-shortened 09/10, it is hard to ignore that and say those seasons do not add much.