With the playoffs tentatively continuing this year can Ovechkin catch Gretzky now?

[psycat]

I think we are looking for the breakpoint when Ovechkin overtakes Gretzky in terms of goalscoring. Best 5 years is probably still Gretzky, but what about best 7? Or best 8? And then Ovechkin has another 2-3 Rocket-worthy campaigns. That's for how long Ovechkin has been ahead of Gretzky as a goal-scorer. I would say Ovechkin's 7th Rocket sealed the deal for me, so it has been 2+ years Ovechkin is a better goal-scorer than Gretzky.

To elaborate somewhat, the peak is important, but the difference in peak goal-scoring between Ovechkin and Gretzky (85% lead over #10 vs. 63% lead) is just 9 goals (22% of 41 goals #10 scored last season). Yes, those are some special goals, turning the 65-goal Ovechkin in a 74-goal Ovechkin will make a big difference, but Ovechkin has 11 Rocket-worthy seasons vs. Gretzky's 5. You can take 2, 3 extra Rockets as a compensation for the difference in 2-year peak, but I don't think more than 3.

While true (I would also rank Ovi ahead as a goalscorer) it's pretty hard to compare since Ovi pretty much does nothing except scoring goals the last couple of years, his statlines just look silly for the wrong reasons. I mean is it really more impressive goalscoring wise to win the rocket but do nothing else compared to coming second but demolishing the assist race at the same time?

 

[Zuluss]

While true (I would also rank Ovi ahead as a goalscorer) it's pretty hard to compare since Ovi pretty much does nothing except scoring goals the last couple of years, his statlines just look silly for the wrong reasons.

Many great players keep their core competency and decline in other areas. I am not sure why Ovechkin is getting so much heat for concentrating what he does best and not attempting to do what he no longer has energy to do.
When Joe Thornton was 2nd in assists at the age of 36, people were impressed that he is still such a good playmaker, and award voters voted him on 2nd All-star team and 5th in Hart voting. I do not remember people mocking him for failure to score 20 goals since forever.
Even Wayne Gretzky in his final years was a minus player collecting tons of assists - but that usually is mentioned with awe, "look, he led the league in assists at 36 and 37 years of age". His goals are never brought up.
But Ovechkin somehow cannot catch a break and his assists are always something to complain about. Why not pay attention to the fact that he is top20 in points again, marking 14th time in his career - and even players like Jagr and Beliveau, both an epitome of aging gracefully, finished top20 in points 13 times.

I mean is it really more impressive goalscoring wise to win the rocket but do nothing else compared to coming second but demolishing the assist race at the same time?

Yes, it is more impressive goalscoring, just by definition. A goal-scorer does not have to also be a play-maker.

 

[al secord]

Mathematically?

 

[Gains]

He is a machine and goal-scoring wise, he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon.

But my god has he ever been dealt a bad hand:

1. A full-season lockout
2. A lockout that caused the season to miss 34 games
3. A freaking global pandemic causing him to miss out on 13 games
4. The repercussions of the pandemic on the upcoming season

He has already missed out on 129 GAMES due to circumstances out of his control. If we use his goals/game of 0.612, he would have scored 79 MORE goals, putting him at 785 heading into next season. That meant he would only have to score 110 more goals to break Gretzky's record. That would have basically been set in stone with the way he is playing at his age and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Aside from eras and adjusted stats, people have to take into account the above. If he breaks the record with the above already having happened... lord have mercy

To be fair, you need to remove 34 games from Gretzky too (1995).

 

[Varan]

To be fair, you need to remove 34 games from Gretzky too (1995).

How so?

I don't think it would have any major impact considering he was on his way out during those years

 

[Gains]

How so?

I don't think it would have any major impact considering he was on his way out during those years

Both ovechkin and gretzky were coming off a 38 goal season prior to their shortened season

 

[Jacksonbobson]

Ovie will get it done.

I can't believe he put up those numbers in this era.