With the playoffs tentatively continuing this year can Ovechkin catch Gretzky now?

[SniperOnTheWing]

If the proposed playoff format starts in the summer and runs into the fall, then there is a draft sometime in October, followed by an offseason of some length and new training camps, it could possibly be January before we see the next season start.

If Ovie doesn't get a chance to start scoring regular season goals again until 2021 that means he will lose the rest of this season plus a good three months or so from the calendar before he can resume the chase at the age of 35.

AND, we don't yet know if the next season will have to be shortened or not so the potential is there to lose up to a half season worth of production (20-25-ish goals) on top of all this.

Even if the NHL can pause, unpause, and reschedule seasons to fit into future time frames they can't pause the aging process. He needed things to go pretty perfectly as it was just to catch him without hurdles in the way. I'm afraid Ovie may have gotten robbed of his chance to catch Gretz and it would be a shame to see it happen for reasons beyond his control.

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[WingsMJN2965]

The plan next season is still to run a full, 82 game season. They've said this from the beginning.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

The plan next season is still to run a full, 82 game season. They've said this from the beginning.

That's fine, but Ovie is still aging while we're waiting for this to happen. And a full 82 would mean a likely delay to 2021-22 unless they plan on fitting all 82 plus playoffs into January-June and coming back for another 82 in October. Time is of the essence.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

That's fine, but Ovie is still aging while we're waiting for this to happen. And a full 82 would mean a likely delay to 2021-22 unless they plan on fitting all 82 plus playoffs into January-June and coming back for another 82 in October. Time is of the essence.

If they're back on time by the time he's 37-38, he'll still have gotten the opportunity to play in just as many games in the same period of time...

The only thing he's losing is the remaining games from this season. What could hurt is playing that many games in that little time, for his health.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

OV (15 seasons) vs Gretzky (20 seasons)

Rockets: 9-5
Top 3: 11-5
Top 5: 13-8
Top 10: 13-9

Whether he gets to 895 or not, OV surpassed Gretzky as a goal scorer years ago. Anything he does now is just gravy.

 

[Varan]

He is a machine and goal-scoring wise, he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon.

But my god has he ever been dealt a bad hand:

1. A full-season lockout
2. A lockout that caused the season to miss 34 games
3. A freaking global pandemic causing him to miss out on 13 games
4. The repercussions of the pandemic on the upcoming season

He has already missed out on 129 GAMES due to circumstances out of his control. If we use his goals/game of 0.612, he would have scored 79 MORE goals, putting him at 785 heading into next season. That meant he would only have to score 110 more goals to break Gretzky's record. That would have basically been set in stone with the way he is playing at his age and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Aside from eras and adjusted stats, people have to take into account the above. If he breaks the record with the above already having happened... lord have mercy

 

[MikeyMike01]

OV (15 seasons) vs Gretzky (20 seasons)

Rockets: 9-5
Top 3: 11-5
Top 5: 13-8
Top 10: 13-9

Whether he gets to 895 or not, OV surpassed Gretzky as a goal scorer years ago. Anything he does now is just gravy.

Breaking Gretzky’s goal record would be the biggest achievement of Ovechkin’s career. Certainly not “gravy”.

 

[bobholly39]

He is a machine and goal-scoring wise, he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon.

But my god has he ever been dealt a bad hand:

1. A full-season lockout
2. A lockout that caused the season to miss 34 games
3. A freaking global pandemic causing him to miss out on 13 games
4. The repercussions of the pandemic on the upcoming season

He has already missed out on 129 GAMES due to circumstances out of his control. If we use his goals/game of 0.612, he would have scored 79 MORE goals, putting him at 785 heading into next season. That meant he would only have to score 110 more goals to break Gretzky's record. That would have basically been set in stone with the way he is playing at his age and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Aside from eras and adjusted stats, people have to take into account the above. If he breaks the record with the above already having happened... lord have mercy

I think in terms of chasing 895 goals - obviously this hurts. But this has hurt him infinitely more in the chase of most 50 goal season record. He has 8 - both Gretzky and Bossy have 9.

Lockout year he was pacing for ~54 but obviously, only 48 games.
This year has 48 - almost certain he'd have done 50.
Next year - despite NHL's wishes to have a full 82 game season, it seems unlikely.

He also has one season where he stopped at 49 goals.

So - very unlucky for that particular record of most 50 goal seasons which he 100% wont break now imo.

895? I think thats still a good possibility, if he plays long enough and maintains a certain level a bit longer yet

 

[bobholly39]

OV (15 seasons) vs Gretzky (20 seasons)

Rockets: 9-5
Top 3: 11-5
Top 5: 13-8
Top 10: 13-9

Whether he gets to 895 or not, OV surpassed Gretzky as a goal scorer years ago. Anything he does now is just gravy.

You're being too generous to Ovi.

Gretzky has:

- better single season peak
- better sustained peak
- better career numbers
- better playoff numbers

You can still maybe give the edge to Ovi as of today with era adjustment - but its close either way.

Give Ovi a few more season and he likely claims the title pretty unanimously though

 

[Voight]

He is a machine and goal-scoring wise, he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon.

But my god has he ever been dealt a bad hand:

1. A full-season lockout
2. A lockout that caused the season to miss 34 games
3. A freaking global pandemic causing him to miss out on 13 games
4. The repercussions of the pandemic on the upcoming season

He has already missed out on 129 GAMES due to circumstances out of his control. If we use his goals/game of 0.612, he would have scored 79 MORE goals, putting him at 785 heading into next season. That meant he would only have to score 110 more goals to break Gretzky's record. That would have basically been set in stone with the way he is playing at his age and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Aside from eras and adjusted stats, people have to take into account the above. If he breaks the record with the above already having happened... lord have mercy

Yup and he proved this year he can still score 50 a season.

As its been said, he could park himself in his office and just shoot one timers all season long, still end up with probably 30 or 35 goals.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

You're being too generous to Ovi.

Gretzky has:

- better single season peak
- better sustained peak
- better career numbers
- better playoff numbers

You can still maybe give the edge to Ovi as of today with era adjustment - but its close either way.

Give Ovi a few more season and he likely claims the title pretty unanimously though

To borrow from @Zuluss
% lead over #10 in goals

Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-41-30-26-24-15-6
Gretzky: 85-85-59-48-48-17-15-13-9

Gretzky wins year 1 & 2. Years 3-5 end up basically a wash. But after that Gretzky falls off a cliff. Gretzky's 6th best year would be OV's 12th best. I'm not sure what you mean by "sustained peak", because it's really 2 years for Gretzky's peak that sure OV can't match. But that doesn't make up for the grand canyon sized gap in the seasons after that.

Gretzky obviously has better career numbers, that's down to era. That's not much of an argument.

Gretzky is the best playoff performer of all time but playoffs have nothing to do with this.

 

[bobholly39]

To borrow from @Zuluss
% lead over #10 in goals

Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-41-30-26-24-15-6
Gretzky: 85-85-59-48-48-17-15-13-9

Gretzky wins year 1 & 2. Years 3-5 end up basically a wash. But after that Gretzky falls off a cliff. Gretzky's 6th best year would be OV's 12th best. I'm not sure what you mean by "sustained peak", because it's really 2 years for Gretzky's peak that sure OV can't match. But that doesn't make up for the grand canyon sized gap in the seasons after that.

Gretzky obviously has better career numbers, that's down to era. That's not much of an argument.

Gretzky is the best playoff performer of all time but playoffs have nothing to do with this.

Single peak you agree on - edge Gretzky
By sustained peak i mean best 3-5 years. It's also edge Gretzky. It's true that years 3-5 is closer, but overall top 3, or top 5 seasons it's Gretzky (basically, Gretzky isn't just one outlier season, his top 3-5 years is super solid)
Career numbers - you have to adjust for era, obviously. But is 894 better than 706 for Ovi? It's close either way. Give Ovi a few more years to pass 800-850+ and I think it'd be obvious edge to him there. No perfect way to adjust stats across era, so depending on how you do it, i could see either/or ahead.
Playoffs - I meant actual goal-scoring in playoffs. Big edge to Gretzky here as well, almost double as many goals.

So - no, Ovi didn't pass Gretzky "years ago". It's close right now, regardless of who you have ahead.

 

[jetsforever]

I don't really get this poll - obviously he still technically can do it, perhaps with a slightly smaller chance now.

 

[jetsforever]

I think in terms of chasing 895 goals - obviously this hurts. But this has hurt him infinitely more in the chase of most 50 goal season record. He has 8 - both Gretzky and Bossy have 9.

Lockout year he was pacing for ~54 but obviously, only 48 games.
This year has 48 - almost certain he'd have done 50.
Next year - despite NHL's wishes to have a full 82 game season, it seems unlikely.

He also has one season where he stopped at 49 goals.

So - very unlucky for that particular record of most 50 goal seasons which he 100% wont break now imo.

895? I think thats still a good possibility, if he plays long enough and maintains a certain level a bit longer yet

People keep talking about this but I don't get why it's such a big deal. "Most 50 goal seasons", while nice to have, is not a particularly major stat (like most goals or most Rockets) and I doubt many people will know or care overall.

 

[Zuluss]

Single peak you agree on - edge Gretzky
By sustained peak i mean best 3-5 years. It's also edge Gretzky. It's true that years 3-5 is closer, but overall top 3, or top 5 seasons it's Gretzky (basically, Gretzky isn't just one outlier season, his top 3-5 years is super solid)

I think we are looking for the breakpoint when Ovechkin overtakes Gretzky in terms of goalscoring. Best 5 years is probably still Gretzky, but what about best 7? Or best 8? And then Ovechkin has another 2-3 Rocket-worthy campaigns. That's for how long Ovechkin has been ahead of Gretzky as a goal-scorer. I would say Ovechkin's 7th Rocket sealed the deal for me, so it has been 2+ years Ovechkin is a better goal-scorer than Gretzky.

To elaborate somewhat, the peak is important, but the difference in peak goal-scoring between Ovechkin and Gretzky (85% lead over #10 vs. 63% lead) is just 9 goals (22% of 41 goals #10 scored last season). Yes, those are some special goals, turning the 65-goal Ovechkin in a 74-goal Ovechkin will make a big difference, but Ovechkin has 11 Rocket-worthy seasons vs. Gretzky's 5. You can take 2, 3 extra Rockets as a compensation for the difference in 2-year peak, but I don't think more than 3.

 

[Video Nasty]

He is a machine and goal-scoring wise, he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon.

But my god has he ever been dealt a bad hand:

1. A full-season lockout
2. A lockout that caused the season to miss 34 games
3. A freaking global pandemic causing him to miss out on 13 games
4. The repercussions of the pandemic on the upcoming season

He has already missed out on 129 GAMES due to circumstances out of his control. If we use his goals/game of 0.612, he would have scored 79 MORE goals, putting him at 785 heading into next season. That meant he would only have to score 110 more goals to break Gretzky's record. That would have basically been set in stone with the way he is playing at his age and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Aside from eras and adjusted stats, people have to take into account the above. If he breaks the record with the above already having happened... lord have mercy

Why is this argument used so often for any player? Short answer: Butterfly Effect. Longer answer to follow.

If he played all that time, there's an infinite amount of different paths his career could have taken. It's not linear. During any of those seasons, he could have suffered a career altering/ending injury. He could have more mileage on his body. He could have less, more or even the same number of goals. He could have a won a Cup sooner. He might still not have a Cup. I could spend the rest of my life typing the infinite possibilities and not be finished. It would change his career entirely as well as every other player out there. Every sequence would be altered. It's not as simple as looking at the games missed in a vacuum and projecting out any number of goals more.

Who knows, maybe the way it has all played out is just about the best hand he could have been dealt? Remarkable health and consistency, all the awards, the Cup and the Conn, already recognized by some as a better goal scorer than Gretzky without even broking the record, peppered with not playing even more games and still having 706 goals as we speaking seems like it would near or at the top of any alternate timeline results.

As for the poll question, he definitely still has a chance. My personal opinion is that he won't, but it's hard to imagine him not ending up with around 850ish.

 

[McFlash97]

He will fall short.

Nonetheless incredible goal scoring career.

 

[Regal]

Why is this argument used so often for any player? Short answer: Butterfly Effect. Longer answer to follow.

If he played all that time, there's an infinite amount of different paths his career could have taken. It's not linear. During any of those seasons, he could have suffered a career altering/ending injury. He could have more mileage on his body. He could have less, more or even the same number of goals. He could have a won a Cup sooner. He might still not have a Cup. I could spend the rest of my life typing the infinite possibilities and not be finished. It would change his career entirely as well as every other player out there. Every sequence would be altered. It's not as simple as looking at the games missed in a vacuum and projecting out any number of goals more.

Who knows, maybe the way it has all played out is just about the best hand he could have been dealt? Remarkable health and consistency, all the awards, the Cup and the Conn, already recognized by some as a better goal scorer than Gretzky without even broking the record, peppered with not playing even more games and still having 706 goals as we speaking seems like it would near or at the top of any alternate timeline results.

As for the poll question, he definitely still has a chance. My personal opinion is that he won't, but it's hard to imagine him not ending up with around 850ish.

To add, one thing a lot of people don't seem to think about is the full season lockout's affect on scoring in subsequent seasons. If there was no lockout, we might have seen the lower scoring era continue, and Ovechkin's goal totals taken a hit early in his career to the point the extra season wouldn't add anything.

 

[Holymakinaw]

If the proposed playoff format starts in the summer and runs into the fall, then there is a draft sometime in October, followed by an offseason of some length and new training camps, it could possibly be January before we see the next season start.

If Ovie doesn't get a chance to start scoring regular season goals again until 2021 that means he will lose the rest of this season plus a good three months or so from the calendar before he can resume the chase at the age of 35.

AND, we don't yet know if the next season will have to be shortened or not so the potential is there to lose up to a half season worth of production (20-25-ish goals) on top of all this.

Even if the NHL can pause, unpause, and reschedule seasons to fit into future time frames they can't pause the aging process. He needed things to go pretty perfectly as it was just to catch him without hurdles in the way. I'm afraid Ovie may have gotten robbed of his chance to catch Gretz and it would be a shame to see it happen for reasons beyond his control.

Nope. He'll never catch Wayne, I'm afraid.

 

[Halla]

He is a machine and goal-scoring wise, he doesn't look like he's slowing down anytime soon.

But my god has he ever been dealt a bad hand:

1. A full-season lockout
2. A lockout that caused the season to miss 34 games
3. A freaking global pandemic causing him to miss out on 13 games
4. The repercussions of the pandemic on the upcoming season

He has already missed out on 129 GAMES due to circumstances out of his control. If we use his goals/game of 0.612, he would have scored 79 MORE goals, putting him at 785 heading into next season. That meant he would only have to score 110 more goals to break Gretzky's record. That would have basically been set in stone with the way he is playing at his age and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Aside from eras and adjusted stats, people have to take into account the above. If he breaks the record with the above already having happened... lord have mercy

he has also only missed more than 4 games ONCE in 15 seasons, and that was 10 games
dude has been pretty lucky to avoid any major injuries 15 years deep into a career. he has more than 2 seasons worth of games more than crosby who started the exact same time

I wouldnt call that a bad hand. 29 games missed in 15 years is a pretty good hand

 

[Phrazer]

Would love to see it happen but the hurdles outside of his control are making it less likely

 

[bobholly39]

Why is this argument used so often for any player? Short answer: Butterfly Effect. Longer answer to follow.

If he played all that time, there's an infinite amount of different paths his career could have taken. It's not linear. During any of those seasons, he could have suffered a career altering/ending injury. He could have more mileage on his body. He could have less, more or even the same number of goals. He could have a won a Cup sooner. He might still not have a Cup. I could spend the rest of my life typing the infinite possibilities and not be finished. It would change his career entirely as well as every other player out there. Every sequence would be altered. It's not as simple as looking at the games missed in a vacuum and projecting out any number of goals more.

Who knows, maybe the way it has all played out is just about the best hand he could have been dealt? Remarkable health and consistency, all the awards, the Cup and the Conn, already recognized by some as a better goal scorer than Gretzky without even broking the record, peppered with not playing even more games and still having 706 goals as we speaking seems like it would near or at the top of any alternate timeline results.

As for the poll question, he definitely still has a chance. My personal opinion is that he won't, but it's hard to imagine him not ending up with around 850ish.

To add, one thing a lot of people don't seem to think about is the full season lockout's affect on scoring in subsequent seasons. If there was no lockout, we might have seen the lower scoring era continue, and Ovechkin's goal totals taken a hit early in his career to the point the extra season wouldn't add anything.

If you want to be literal - you shouldn't ever consider any 'what if' questions or hypotheticals due to butterfly effect. but where's the fun in that? "What if the season had continued - would McDavid have hit 100 points 4th time in a row? No - because that game scheduled on March 13th would have triggered the alien wars and destroyed the NHL forever..." Or - we can instead easily say "yeah, 4th 100 point season in a row" is almost certain.

You're right about the lockout effect on scoring - but same idea. He could have played in the 80s instead too.

I don't see a lot of harm in speculating in games missed. Top players are naturally consistent - or at least, you have enough of a big sample size to guess at what their production might be over missed games. So lockout year for Ovi at 32 goals - I think it's fine to guess he'd have done ~50 in a full season.

I think where it gets tricky is team results. So much can affect a team win - even a single star player being healthy or not isn't enough to make a difference in hockey. So when people say "yeah only if player X had been healthy for this series, they win the cup for sure" - that's where i draw the line and think it's far fetched.

For what it's worth I think Ovechkin ending up with ~850ish seems like a very safe bet too. It's whether he goes the extra mile to reach 900+ which will be impressive (unless he just compiles into it by playing 3-4 more years past even 40, at a much lower ability).

 

[Midnight Judges]

To borrow from @Zuluss
% lead over #10 in goals

Ovechkin: 63-61-52-52-50-44-43-41-30-26-24-15-6
Gretzky: 85-85-59-48-48-17-15-13-9

Gretzky wins year 1 & 2. Years 3-5 end up basically a wash. But after that Gretzky falls off a cliff. Gretzky's 6th best year would be OV's 12th best. I'm not sure what you mean by "sustained peak", because it's really 2 years for Gretzky's peak that sure OV can't match. But that doesn't make up for the grand canyon sized gap in the seasons after that.

Gretzky obviously has better career numbers, that's down to era. That's not much of an argument.

Gretzky is the best playoff performer of all time but playoffs have nothing to do with this.

vs top 10 is a decent metric, but don't you think it inevitably favors the player who played during the time with the smaller talent pool.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

He’ll need 1600 more points. I don’t think he gets there.

 

[Varan]

Why is this argument used so often for any player? Short answer: Butterfly Effect. Longer answer to follow.

If he played all that time, there's an infinite amount of different paths his career could have taken. It's not linear. During any of those seasons, he could have suffered a career altering/ending injury. He could have more mileage on his body. He could have less, more or even the same number of goals. He could have a won a Cup sooner. He might still not have a Cup. I could spend the rest of my life typing the infinite possibilities and not be finished. It would change his career entirely as well as every other player out there. Every sequence would be altered. It's not as simple as looking at the games missed in a vacuum and projecting out any number of goals more.

Who knows, maybe the way it has all played out is just about the best hand he could have been dealt? Remarkable health and consistency, all the awards, the Cup and the Conn, already recognized by some as a better goal scorer than Gretzky without even broking the record, peppered with not playing even more games and still having 706 goals as we speaking seems like it would near or at the top of any alternate timeline results.

As for the poll question, he definitely still has a chance. My personal opinion is that he won't, but it's hard to imagine him not ending up with around 850ish.

I’m not saying that the above argument is set in stone because, of course, a million different things can happen as you have alluded to.

However, I’m just going off of what history is telling me and using things that have happened to come to a conclusion. It’s not wrong to do. Many people do it.

These are the same people who say that Crosby would have kept up his pace had he not had gotten injured during his early 20s

This whole poll/thread is a big what if, and that’s exactly what I’m suggesting. It’s just that it’s the most reasonable