Prospect Info: With the 115th pick in the 2016 entry draft, the Ducks pick - Alex Dostie

[Trojans86]

The way the league is put together, you have to pay your own players what they’re worth now. Prospects who aren’t top 5 guys usually aren’t going to do anything for 3-5 years post draft, especially the defensemen that that franchise is short on. They HAD to overpay to get anyone to play there, because it’s a frozen wasteland with nothing to do and a crappy team. That’s not a draw. Getting even a few decent players in the 31+ positions in those 1st overall rounds would have lessened the need to do that.

Being eternally bad for 10 years (which is what you’re saying they should have done) means the good players leave like rats from a ship as soon as they can. It’s not workable.

Just to follow up what you said in the other thread, you say that if you trade a player you are hoping that the prospect becomes that level of the player you traded. I disagree. They could be better, worse or the same, but regardless, there isnt anything wrong with that. That is how you build depth in an organization. Hypothetically if we were to sell Silf and Henrique and got prospects that were the same as Silf and Rico in 4 years, and you added those guys to the guys we already were going to draft with our own draft picks, our team would be significantly better. One extra 2c and top 6 winger would make us significantly better. I am having trouble seeing what is wrong with trading a guy like Silf for a future player that could end up like Silf. You are just sacrificing the present for the future and since the present doesnt matter much now, it is a worthwhile trade if your team ain't going anywhere.

As for Edmonton, they are bad because they drafted poorly. No one wants to be bad for 10 years. They didnt intentionally tank, they sucked because the drafted or developed soo poorly and if they would have been more patient they would be better off today. It has to be tough to suck for that long but that doesnt justify trading a talent like Hall for a 4d to fill a hole on the back end of the team. They should've been patient and stayed with the guy that had more potential even if it left them with a hole. The time to make big free agency signings and win now trades is when the team is already a contender and you need to fill just a hole or two to get you over the top. Not when you are a middle of the road team.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Just to follow up what you said in the other thread, you say that if you trade a player you are hoping that the prospect becomes that level of the player you traded. I disagree. They could be better, worse or the same, but regardless, there isnt anything wrong with that. That is how you build depth in an organization. Hypothetically if we were to sell Silf and Henrique and got prospects that were the same as Silf and Rico in 4 years, and you added those guys to the guys we already were going to draft with our own draft picks, our team would be significantly better. One extra 2c and top 6 winger would make us significantly better. I am having trouble seeing what is wrong with trading a guy like Silf for a future player that could end up like Silf. You are just sacrificing the present for the future and since the present doesnt matter much now, it is a worthwhile trade if your team ain't going anywhere.

As for Edmonton, they are bad because they drafted poorly. No one wants to be bad for 10 years. They didnt intentionally tank, they sucked because the drafted or developed soo poorly and if they would have been more patient they would be better off today. It has to be tough to suck for that long but that doesnt justify trading a talent like Hall for a 4d to fill a hole on the back end of the team. They should've been patient and stayed with the guy that had more potential even if it left them with a hole. The time to make big free agency signings and win now trades is when the team is already a contender and you need to fill just a hole or two to get you over the top. Not when you are a middle of the road team.

The chance of a 2nd round pick becoming a career NHL player is about 25%. So, unless you’re getting 4 assets back, you’re probably not even breaking even.

I think we can agree that Edmonton is rotten to the core at the management level, and that there’s no one (or probably even 10) factor that’s solely responsible for their decline. I think you’re correct, but I think that the points I bring up are also real and in play for all the other perennially selling teams that never amount to anything. Chicago is an outlier because of their contract cheating.

 

[Trojans86]

The chance of a 2nd round pick becoming a career NHL player is about 25%. So, unless you’re getting 4 assets back, you’re probably not even breaking even.

I think we can agree that Edmonton is rotten to the core at the management level, and that there’s no one (or probably even 10) factor that’s solely responsible for their decline. I think you’re correct, but I think that the points I bring up are also real and in play for all the other perennially selling teams that never amount to anything. Chicago is an outlier because of their contract cheating.

Silf and Rico would both fetch first rounders and those have a very good shot of being better than Silf or Rico, it saves us $5m which we could spend on a 3rd line type talent and we get a bit worse in the short run which helps our draft position. I think it is a no brainer if we arent in the playoffs. I'd say any perennial seller is a product of bad drafting. 5 years in a row of top 6 picks should net you a ton of talent and if you cant do that your problem isnt your strategy but your drafting. Yes people dont want to play for a loser but the root of the problem is bad drafting at that point.

 

[Masch78]

Edmontons problem is not one of talent.

 

[Trojans86]

The chance of a 2nd round pick becoming a career NHL player is about 25%. So, unless you’re getting 4 assets back, you’re probably not even breaking even.

I think we can agree that Edmonton is rotten to the core at the management level, and that there’s no one (or probably even 10) factor that’s solely responsible for their decline. I think you’re correct, but I think that the points I bring up are also real and in play for all the other perennially selling teams that never amount to anything. Chicago is an outlier because of their contract cheating.

BTW I respect how you can express a different opinion without resorting to whining complaining or calling the other person stupid. Seems rare these days.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Silf and Rico would both fetch first rounders and those have a very good shot of being better than Silf or Rico, it saves us $5m which we could spend on a 3rd line type talent and we get a bit worse in the short run which helps our draft position. I think it is a no brainer if we arent in the playoffs. I'd say any perennial seller is a product of bad drafting. 5 years in a row of top 6 picks should net you a ton of talent and if you cant do that your problem isnt your strategy but your drafting. Yes people dont want to play for a loser but the root of the problem is bad drafting at that point.

I agree her they’d get 1sts, but I think late 1sts, which is usually a 2nd line player, which is what they are. Keep in mind that 30-40% of 1st round picks never play 100+ games.

Edit - keep in mind I’m not saying that the players picked CAN’T be better. It’s just statistically not likely, and you don’t know for 3-6 years. Clearly those odds aren’t the same for every team due to competence of the scouting teams.

 

[pbgoalie]

I agree her they’d get 1sts, but I think late 1sts, which is usually a 2nd line player, which is what they are. Keep in mind that 30-40% of 1st round picks never play 100+ games.

Edit - keep in mind I’m not saying that the players picked CAN’T be better. It’s just statistically not likely, and you don’t know for 3-6 years. Clearly those odds aren’t the same for every team due to competence of the scouting teams.

Have the stats on Ducks draft picks in first twos rounds? Seems we perform better than league average?
But, I completely agree, having an NHL player in hand and a potential one big, big difference

 

[Paul4587]

Edmontons problem is not one of talent.

Certainly not top end talent up front. Everywhere else though they are extremely limited talent wise. They have 3 good forwards and 2 ok to good dmen, one of which is always injured.

 

[Exit Dose]

Certainly not top end talent up front. Everywhere else though they are extremely limited talent wise. They have 3 good forwards and 2 ok to good dmen, one of which is always injured.

It should not have been this hard to build what should at least be a competent bottom six. I think that the secret that flew under the radar with Pittsburgh was how well the rest of the roster had been built, outside of its stars. It seems like Edmonton thought that they'd be Pittsburgh with a few big ticket forwards. This is why the Pens were able to still win even if one or both of those guys were out with injury.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Have the stats on Ducks draft picks in first twos rounds? Seems we perform better than league average?
But, I completely agree, having an NHL player in hand and a potential one big, big difference

Anaheim Ducks Draft Picks | Hockey-Reference.com
About the 2nd round picks:
I'm more optmistic about Groulx(2018) than Morand (2017).
No 2nd rounder in 2016.
Nattinen(2015) is a bust.
Both 2014 2nd rounders turned out well: Montour & Petterssen.
2013: Sorensen still in the SHL, probably a bust.
2012: Kerdliles - probably gonna be a bust.
2011: Gibson & Karlsson turned out quite well.
2010: Smith-Pelly is a decent 4th liner for Washington.
2009: Mat Clark is a bust.
2008: three 2nd round picks: O'Dell = bust, Deschamps = bust, Schultz is a top 4 Dman for the Penguins.
2004 to 2007 2nd rounders were all busts.
The last 1st rounder to bust was 2010 Emerson Etem 29th overall & 2009 15th overall Peter Holland.

 

[eternalbedhead]

Anaheim Ducks Draft Picks | Hockey-Reference.com
About the 2nd round picks:
I'm more optmistic about Groulx(2018) than Morand (2017).
No 2nd rounder in 2016.
Nattinen(2015) is a bust.
Both 2014 2nd rounders turned out well: Montour & Petterssen.
2013: Sorensen still in the SHL, probably a bust.
2012: Kerdliles - probably gonna be a bust.
2011: Gibson & Karlsson turned out quite well.
2010: Smith-Pelly is a decent 4th liner for Washington.
2009: Mat Clark is a bust.
2008: three 2nd round picks: O'Dell = bust, Deschamps = bust, Schultz is a top 4 Dman for the Penguins.
2004 to 2007 2nd rounders were all busts.
The last 1st rounder to bust was 2010 Emerson Etem 29th overall & 2009 15th overall Peter Holland.

Then Mark Mitera and Logan McMillan in '06 and '07. Jake Gardiner was a good pick but we didn't even keep him.

The Burke years in particular were especially bad, but we've done really well since Fowler.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Then Mark Mitera and Logan McMillan in '06 and '07. Jake Gardiner was a good pick but we didn't even keep him.

The Burke years in particular were especially bad, but we've done really well since Fowler.

Logan MacBust wasn't he the NHL's version of Matt Bush(MLB) & Ryan Leaf (NFL) ?

 

[Ducks DVM]

Let’s look at all our 1st/2nd picks from ‘04 on picked 15+ (Rental picks)

Jordan Smith
Brendan Mikkelson
Mark Mitera
Bryce Swan
Logan MacMillan
Eric Tangradi
Jake Gardiner
Eric O’Dell
Nicholas Deschampes
Justin Schultz
Peter Holland
Kyle Palmieri
Mat Clark
Emerson Etem
DSP
Rickard Rakell
John Gibson
William Karlsson
Nicolas Kerdiles
Shea Theodore
Nick Sorensen
Marcus Petterssen
Jacob Larsson
Julius Nattinen
Max Jones
Sam Steel
Maxime Comtois
Antoine Morand
Isac Lundestrom
BO Groulx

This is what I meant when I said you hope you get a player as good as Silfverberg. Gibson is better. I think that Rakell, Palmieri, Wild Bill, maaaaaybe Theodore are comparable. Everyone else is worse. Out of 30 picks.

 

[MMC]

Let’s look at all our 1st/2nd picks from ‘04 on picked 15+ (Rental picks)

Jordan Smith
Brendan Mikkelson
Mark Mitera
Bryce Swan
Logan MacMillan
Eric Tangradi
Jake Gardiner
Eric O’Dell
Nicholas Deschampes
Justin Schultz
Peter Holland
Kyle Palmieri
Mat Clark
Emerson Etem
DSP
Rickard Rakell
John Gibson
William Karlsson
Nicolas Kerdiles
Shea Theodore
Nick Sorensen
Marcus Petterssen
Jacob Larsson
Julius Nattinen
Max Jones
Sam Steel
Maxime Comtois
Antoine Morand
Isac Lundestrom
BO Groulx

This is what I meant when I said you hope you get a player as good as Silfverberg. Gibson is better. I think that Rakell, Palmieri, Wild Bill, maaaaaybe Theodore are comparable. Everyone else is worse. Out of 30 picks.

Gardiner also better

 

[Ducks DVM]

Gardiner also better

I’d go as far as comparable. But I think Silfverberg is significantly better playing defense. And shows up in the playoffs.

It’s still goes to show why trying to get those picks is not the miracle reset people act like it is. You need the top 10/top 5 picks for that.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Let’s look at all our 1st/2nd picks from ‘04 on picked 15+ (Rental picks)

Jordan Smith
Brendan Mikkelson
Mark Mitera
Bryce Swan
Logan MacMillan
Eric Tangradi
Jake Gardiner
Eric O’Dell
Nicholas Deschampes
Justin Schultz
Peter Holland
Kyle Palmieri
Mat Clark
Emerson Etem
DSP
Rickard Rakell
John Gibson
William Karlsson
Nicolas Kerdiles
Shea Theodore
Nick Sorensen
Marcus Petterssen
Jacob Larsson
Julius Nattinen
Max Jones
Sam Steel
Maxime Comtois
Antoine Morand
Isac Lundestrom
BO Groulx

This is what I meant when I said you hope you get a player as good as Silfverberg. Gibson is better. I think that Rakell, Palmieri, Wild Bill, maaaaaybe Theodore are comparable. Everyone else is worse. Out of 30 picks.

Etem & Kerdiles were both socal guys & both busts, i hope they stay away from drafting guys just cause they grew up within short driving distance of Anaheim unless its a really great prospect thats best player available.

 

[Masch78]

Kerdiles and Etem were not taken because of their heritage.

 

[Paul4587]

I’d go as far as comparable. But I think Silfverberg is significantly better playing defense. And shows up in the playoffs.

It’s still goes to show why trying to get those picks is not the miracle reset people act like it is. You need the top 10/top 5 picks for that.

I wouldn’t even say comparable. Silfverberg is a significantly more valuable player than Gardiner especially in the playoffs. I take a 40 point forward who is elite defensively over a second pairing Dman who while productive is one of the most mistake prone players in the league.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

I would say us and Tampa are the top two, but I would probably give a slight edge to Tampa though. They drafted the best winger in the league at 58th overall and a top 10 centre in the league in the third round among other great picks.

Tampa is such a weird one given almost all of their first rounders in the Yzerman era are either too early to call or flat out bad picks, Vasilevsky is really the only hit among the bunch.

Edit-I'm also gonna give us the edge. They have two massive, massive hits but Yzerman's drafting as a whole is kind of overrated. Kind of like his mentor Ken Holland 10-15 years ago.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Tampa is such a weird one given almost all of their first rounders in the Yzerman era are either too early to call or flat out bad picks, Vasilevsky is really the only hit among the bunch.

Yup. Koekkoek in 2012 sucks.
Brett Connolly is just now averaging 0.50 points per game this year as a former #6 pick in 2010.
Carter Ashton in 2009 sucks.
Helenius 15th overall in 2006 played 1 NHL game & thats it.
Mihalik 30th overall in 2005 played 15 games & thats it.
Andy Rogers 30th overall in 2004 never played an NHL game.
Svitov 3rd overall in 2001 played a total 179 games with 37 points, their only other guy from 2001 draft to make the NHL was Evgeny Artyukhin if you remember his brief time on the Ducks.
Alexeev 8th overall in 2000 played 159 games for 37 points.

 

[Paul4587]

Yup. Koekkoek in 2012 sucks.
Brett Connolly is just now averaging 0.50 points per game this year as a former #6 pick in 2010.
Carter Ashton in 2009 sucks.
Helenius 15th overall in 2006 played 1 NHL game & thats it.
Mihalik 30th overall in 2005 played 15 games & thats it.
Andy Rogers 30th overall in 2004 never played an NHL game.
Svitov 3rd overall in 2001 played a total 179 games with 37 points, their only other guy from 2001 draft to make the NHL was Evgeny Artyukhin if you remember his brief time on the Ducks.
Alexeev 8th overall in 2000 played 159 games for 37 points.

You’re going back to 2000 way before Yzerman/the current managements time.

 

[Paul4587]

Tampa is such a weird one given almost all of their first rounders in the Yzerman era are either too early to call or flat out bad picks, Vasilevsky is really the only hit among the bunch.

Edit-I'm also gonna give us the edge. They have two massive, massive hits but Yzerman's drafting as a whole is kind of overrated. Kind of like his mentor Ken Holland 10-15 years ago.

Yeah but as you had those are two massive, massive hits. Top end talent is huge, especially if you can get it past the first round.

In our current drafting era we’ve drafted a lot of good pieces but the only guy who is elite is Gibson.

I would say that in terms of depth and quantity of NHLers we are the best drafting team in this current decade. In terms of overall drafting the Lightning have us beat.

 

[AngelDuck]

TB has 2 guys on their roster that are pretty significant contributors (Johnson and Gourde) that weren't even drafted and another guy who was picked in the 7th round (Palat).

I don't know if they're the best drafting team or not, but it's clear they are the best development team. And that point gets reinforced by the progression of Point, Kucherov, Killorn, and others.

Also the McDonaugh trade was just massive for them. That guy is one of the best defenders in the league

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Yeah but as you had those are two massive, massive hits. Top end talent is huge, especially if you can get it past the first round.

In our current drafting era we’ve drafted a lot of good pieces but the only guy who is elite is Gibson.

I would say that in terms of depth and quantity of NHLers we are the best drafting team in this current decade. In terms of overall drafting the Lightning have us beat.

I think I just value consistency a lot. They've added some nice players outside of Kucherov and Point and it's still a bit early on some but I'm always skeptical of teams with two massive hits outside of round 1 and not a lot else. And even then you're really talking about 2 major wins versus 1 with us, so yeah I feel comfortable going with the steadier option.

As AngelDuck said its obviously a developmental thing there too with their undrafted guys, so theres obviously more than that. Definitely puzzling why it doesn't seem to work with their first round picks, though.

 

[MMC]

I hope Dostie is our first prospect to get a cup of coffee this season. He’s tied for 2nd on the Gulls in goals, and is having a bunch better AHL season than last where he ended up getting demoted to the ECHL. I think he’s earned 3 games.