Post-Game Talk: With 58% odds to pick 7th or 8th, Vancouver will select... 7th in the 2018 NHL Draft

[stampedingviking]

The Sedins embody the franchise of the Vancouver Canucks themselves.

17 or 18 seasons? I am not even going to check. Something has become apparent to me the past few years as a fan. People are fundamentally different. The idea of having the Canucks lose these last 2 games to increase a tiny marginal percentage of a draft pick can be divided completely in half, one group going of course, another going god no.

The Sedins won every award and record you could but no Cup. The Canucks have achieved everything you could but no Cup. 48 seasons of beings the brides maid but never the bride. Tanking is a fairly new thing in sports I believe and who knows how applicable it is to other sports at all. Do Champions league soccer teams even operate with a draft?

The fanbase at least on here has polarized but I even heard casual fans like the radio DJs starting to mention tanking.

I think a point a lot of tankists miss though. Is it isnt 2011 or even 2013 anymore. We have sucked for a long time. The difference in 10% chance wont matter.

we have a 91% chance to not draft 1st overall

Last place has an 82% chance not to draft 1st overall.

Philly came 2nd last year.

You can be mad about a GM not making rebuilding moves but its literally % who cares

Have fun with each other inb4 ryjo

No draft in football (soccer), just promotion/relegation and teams are free to sign who they can. Also, no wage cap.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

How totally irrelevant.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

The drop off is bad after 6th.

Dahlin
Svech
Zadina
Boqvist
Wahlstrom
Hughes

After that it gets ugly imo

So you don't think much of Bouchard, Dobson, Tkachuk, etc.?

 

[ProviesGhost]

The simulator is an amusing distraction. Rather than focus on the Van pick I find it more interesting to see buffalo slide down almost every time......

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

The simulator is an amusing distraction. Rather than focus on the Van pick I find it more interesting to see buffalo slide down almost every time......

For me, is seeing Chicago wins a bunch of times.
Like I just did it once 30 secs ago, got Chicago NYR and Edmonton

 

[lawrence]

For me, is seeing Chicago wins a bunch of times.
Like I just did it once 30 secs ago, got Chicago NYR and Edmonton

In one of my sim runs, I got Islanders winning it with Calgary's odds, and at number 2 Philly winning with St.Louis's odds. lol

But this is our year boys. We will win the 1st pick. I know it, I just know it. It's happening. Hockey gods will reward us for not tanking it, and playing with true sportsmanship the last 2 weeks.

we got this one guys.

 

[M2Beezy]

In one of my sim runs, I got Islanders winning it with Calgary's odds, and at number 2 Philly winning with St.Louis's odds. lol

But this is our year boys. We will win the 1st pick. I know it, I just know it. It's happening. Hockey gods will reward us for not tanking it, and playing with true sportsmanship the last 2 weeks.

we got this one guys.

Classic lawrence post

 

[lawrence]

Classic lawrence post

cmon man, lets try to be a little positive, Winnipeg, Dallas and Philly are examples of how anyteam can take that 1st pick.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

cmon man, lets try to be a little positive, Winnipeg, Dallas and Philly are examples of how anyteam can take that 1st pick.

You have a tenuous grasp on understanding basic probability.

 

[M2Beezy]

cmon man, lets try to be a little positive, Winnipeg, Dallas and Philly are examples of how anyteam can take that 1st pick.

Yeah i can agree with that we do need positivity aint nothing wrong with that

Dahlin for the win!

 

[lawrence]

You have a tenuous grasp on understanding basic probability.

lol 7.5% yes I know we have the 6th best odds. anything can happen.

in 2 straight drafts only 1 team in the top 3 retained a top 3 spot, so I like our odds.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

You have a tenuous grasp on understanding basic probability.

There's a lot of that going around.

 

[me2]

lol 7.5% yes I know we have the 6th best odds. anything can happen.

in 2 straight drafts only 1 team in the top 3 retained a top 3 spot, so I like our odds.

So you are saying teams in the top 3 are due. Our odds go way down now. Then you consider, 6th is set to win once every 4 years and Winnipeg used up chance to win from 6th. Our odds are ruined.

 

[Zombotron]

Yeah i can agree with that we do need positivity aint nothing wrong with that

Dahlin for the win!

Positivity doesn't change the fact that we have a 92.5% chance of not winning Dahlin.

 

[Addison Rae]

Positivity doesn't change the fact that we have a 92.5% chance of not winning Dahlin.

STAts are for nerds

the computer nerds on FLORIDA got canned for a reason.

man i love jocks

 

[Luongos Knob]

When you really think about it, 7.5% is a big number

 

[Grub]

Positivity doesn't change the fact that we have a 92.5% chance of not winning Dahlin.

man I love our chances!

 

[The Iron Goalie]

Positivity doesn't change the fact that we have a 92.5% chance of not winning Dahlin.

True. 1st has an 81.5 % chance of not winning...the triple lottery, combine with the much lower odds overall (comapired with past seasons) has turned the draft lottery crap shoot. Earning the worse record isn't so much about securing the best odds of winning (though it's a nice bonus), but more about securing draft position ie last = 4th at worst, and the highest draft position in all other rounds.

I honestly think the NHL over corrected for the Oilers success in the lottery, and Buffalo/Toronto's tanks jobs, and now we're stuck with this format. I feel the odds should be high for the bot 5 team, as a triple lottery should have been enough to curtail "tanking", but the NHL went 1 step furture by decreasing the odds as well.

Ah well.

 

[2011 still hurts]

Positivity doesn't change the fact that we have a 92.5% chance of not winning Dahlin.

don't worry bro just be urself and believe in eachother and give 110% out there and great things will happen bro

did Hitler consider the probablility of the gunshot killing him when he took his own life? nah he just BOLIEVED

 

[Grub]

don't worry bro just be urself and believe in eachother and give 110% out there and great things will happen bro

did Hitler consider the probablility of the gunshot killing him when he took his own life? nah he just BOLIEVED

So Hitler believed in Bo Horvat before he shot himself?


Man I love this prospect!

 

[DFAC]

I like the idea of moving down to grab Wahlstrom, picking up extra assets and taking a D with our next pick

 

[Zombotron]

^ Assuming we don't win a lottery pick, the most viable partner for such a scenario is now NYR (trade down 2 spots, bargaining chips include two late 1sts + two 2nds)** or NYI (trade down 4 spots, bargaining chips include Calgary's early-mid 1st** + two 2nds).** I'd obviously keep picks 1 or 2 if we get them

Detroit has a late 1st and two early 2nds which could have been used as leverage in a trade-down scenario, but they finished with a better pre-lottery position than us, oops. We will see what happens there. Thinking of a scenario where Vancouver wins #3, but trades down with Detroit, who doesn't win

**Assuming none of these teams wins the lottery

 

[Grub]

If we don't win a lottery pick. Since we covet that #1 d-men I would do our first overall.

1st (5th-8th) + Kole Lind + Olli Juolevi for Erik Karlsson.

Then push like crazy for John Carlsson at free agency. Our D instantly gets solved. Just sayin.

 

[Donuts]

Close to 1/4 chance to win a top 3 pick.

Canucks are due.

1 canucks
2 nyi (cgy)
3 arizona

 

[Horse McHindu]

Rasmus Dahlin + Erik Karlsson

I didn't have much luck with the simulator (I farted around 7th and 8th most of the time), but I did notice Ottawa getting first in the majority of my simulations.

IF Ottawa lands Dahlin, they should do everything in their power to convince Karlsson to stay. If there ever was a foundation to build upon, that would be it.