Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Meeting madness II: Meetings may not be as mad as they appear.

[JS19]

I wonder when people will realize that 30+ Stroman starts is better than 11 Price starts...

What's more intriguing is I wonder when people will realize that Hendriks isn't as good as they think.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

I wonder when people will realize that 30+ Stroman starts is better than 11 Price starts...

Is there any talk about him having an innings limit? Is it realistic to think he can hit 200 innings?

 

[TF97]

Is there any talk about him having an innings limit? Is it realistic to think he can hit 200 innings?

I haven't heard anything. But I personally think it is unlikely that he will have an innings limit. I believe that if healthy he'll make all 32/33 starts.

 

[Discoverer]

Is there any talk about him having an innings limit? Is it realistic to think he can hit 200 innings?

I think it is, since the missed time last year wasn't caused by an arm injury.

 

[TootooTrain]

Is there any talk about him having an innings limit? Is it realistic to think he can hit 200 innings?

One thing gibby hinted at is that if Stroman is cruising, they'll let him run. If he's having an obvious bad day, they might pull him out early. Also mentioned his injury isn't arm related so it's not like they're watching him with care. I hate all these make shift innings limits per start where managers would pull guys before the 7th or 8th.

 

[zeke]

They got Price and a couple of really nice bullpen pieces in Smith and Kimbrel and they bring back pretty much everyone from an offense that was 4th in the majors last year (and unlike the Yankees, most of the guys who contributed to that are in the upward stage of their careers).

Throw in the inevitable dead cat bounce from Hanley and Sandoval and that's a damn good team.

their offense was a mediocre 17th in baseball with a 98wrc+. and they needed a top 10 .305babip to even get there. They got extremely fortunate with sequencing to score the runs they did.

there is no inevitable dead cat bounce from ramirez and sandoval. just like there wasn't last year from craig masterson victorino. the more likely scenario after years as bad as those is that they are permanently broken. but as with the likes of victorino masterson craig last year, the projections will overrate these guys.

and the red sox have about the same number of significant older players as the yanks do.

they have improved their pitching to good, but not great, with average offense and defense.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

of course it's debatable. actually way more than just debatable. yankees have been the far better team in each of the last 2yrs, and have improved significantly this offseason.

boston was overrated 2yrs ago. overrated last year. and are overrated this year again. they had as many significant overachievers last year as they did underachievers. the fact that they had a babip-infused hot streak in august after they were virtually eliminated is meaningless. adding price is a nice upgrade, but not enough to turn a last place team into a favorite.

Bapip-infused? c'mon now. You know the underachieved. I know they underachieved. I hate the Redsox. It's an obnoxious fanbase. They aren't very likable. But that team is a hell of a lot better than we saw last season. The Yankees are an old team relying heavily on a 40 year old Arod, a 35 year old broken down Teixera and a rotation made of glass. You can't sit there and tell me you thought they had the second best offense in baseball last year hence, overachieving. The Yankees are taking the Royals approach in that they're not going to try and rely on their starts and just get to the 7th inning. Everything that went wrong for Boston last year, did. Everyone in that lineup outside of Ortiz and Betts was pretty damn bad for the most part. The only reliable starter they had was Buchholz and I strongly doubt that happens again. Boston likely takes this division IMO unless the Yankees or Jays get some starting help.

 

[Bloomberg]

Sanchez-Cecil-Osuna is a damn good back end of the pen. It's the middle relief arms that I worry about.

Woah who's that in your pic? Looks like Eden Hazard lol

 

[Swervin81]

Woah who's that in your pic? Looks like Eden Hazard lol

Jonathan Diaz

Don't get TF97 started. Once you bring Diaz up, he never stops

 

[mikebel111*]

Jonathan Diaz

Don't get TF97 started. Once you bring Diaz up, he never stops

 

[zeke]

Bapip-infused? c'mon now.

c'mon now. for about a month, from early august to early september, after they had been effectively eliminate, they got red hot based on an insane babip clip and hilarious flukes like Rich Hill. It was a meaningless hot streak at the end of a lost season. jays used to do that all the time.

You know the underachieved. I know they underachieved.

I knew they were overrated, and wasn't surprised they finished last for the 2nd year in a row. There wasn't any reason to believe otherwise. It was a team with no stars, and depth that was built on dreams of reclamation projects and overrated 2nd tier kids.

I hate the Redsox. It's an obnoxious fanbase. They aren't very likable. But that team is a hell of a lot better than we saw last season. The Yankees are an old team relying heavily on a 40 year old Arod, a 35 year old broken down Teixera and a rotation made of glass. You can't sit there and tell me you thought they had the second best offense in baseball last year hence, overachieving. The Yankees are taking the Royals approach in that they're not going to try and rely on their starts and just get to the 7th inning.

The yankees have 2 old guys they rely in key roles - a 40yr old DH and a 35yr old 1B. the only others over 32 are a guy battling for the #5sp slot and a bench OF.

The Sox also have 2 key old guys - a 40yr old DH, as well as a 41yr old as their 2nd best reliver. Add in a 35yr old platoon catcher.

The yanks boast a young deep rotation, a ******** and young bullpen, and as deep a lineup as any team in baseball. They are even better this year than the very good team they were last year.

Everything that went wrong for Boston last year, did. Everyone in that lineup outside of Ortiz and Betts was pretty damn bad for the most part. The only reliable starter they had was Buchholz and I strongly doubt that happens again. Boston likely takes this division IMO unless the Yankees or Jays get some starting help.

No, some things went wrong for Boston last year, and some things went right.

This year, at least, they finally have one guy i'd actually bet on to make the allstar game in Price, unlike last year when they had zero, so that's a start. But they're still a team that lacks impact performers, and whose depth isn't notable either. The closest thing they have to an impact bat is a 40yr old DH on his farewell tour. Better team than last year's last place squad, or the previous year's last place squad, but hardly a world beater.

It's actually quite amazing how much benefit of the doubt this near perennial last place team always gets.

 

[zeke]

let's compare how the jays and sox rosters have performed over the last 2yrs, and then you tell me how the teams look on paper.

I'll remove the names, and just look at wrc+ for hitters and era- for pitchers, from best to worst. you tell me which team is which.

last 2yrs stats.

Starting Lineups (wrc+)

154 - 136
150 - 121
141 - 114
135 - 105
129 - 102
127 - 96
120 - 96
95 - 91
93 - 74

Benches

117 - 119
94 - 98
67 - 88
63 - 83
(88 - 70)


Rotations (era-)

77 - 74
96 - 91
100 - 101
100 - 106
103 - 111
(87 - 109)
(124 - 112)

Bullpens (era-)

42 - 54
63 - 57
65 - 59
72 - 74
80 - 84
92 - 92
106 - 96
(112 - 98)
(127 - 115)

which team is left and which team is right? and how close are they, really?

 

[Discoverer]

there is no inevitable dead cat bounce from ramirez and sandoval. just like there wasn't last year from craig masterson victorino. the more likely scenario after years as bad as those is that they are permanently broken. but as with the likes of victorino masterson craig last year, the projections will overrate these guys.

The projections will like those guys specifically because a bounceback season IS the most likely scenario, based on historical precedent. You may not expect a bounceback, and that's perfectly fair, but based on their ages and track records, 2015 is not likely the new norm.

 

[TOGuy14]

I know I'm probably late to comment on this, but that Yankee bullpen!

Their 7-8-9 combination is just filthy. I suppose the only real problem they will have is managing the egos if they all want to close, but really if you don't hammer their SP in the first 6 innings, you will be hard pressed to mount a comeback in the later part of the game.

 

[Le Cobra]

I don't see why the blue jays couldn't do like the Yankees just did and put together a lights out bullpen. I guess the Yankees just want it more.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The projections will like those guys specifically because a bounceback season IS the most likely scenario, based on historical precedent. You may not expect a bounceback, and that's perfectly fair, but based on their ages and track records, 2015 is not likely the new norm.

There's some causes for alarm with both.

Hanley's BB% was the lowest of his career, pull % the second lowest of his career, and soft contact % the highest of his career. Couple that with the fact that he's positionless, and yikes.

Sandoval; lowest BB%, highest K%, lowest iso, lowest pull %, lowest hard contact rate. Coupled with the worst defensive season of his career, and also yikes.

It's actually quite interesting just how generous steamer is to both considering it is the regression machine.

 

[TF97]

Jonathan Diaz

Don't get TF97 started. Once you bring Diaz up, he never stops

This is a fair assessment

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

So...Mat Latos is still a free agent....I know he's apparently a jerk, but that ceiling...

Could probably get him on a one year deal. I feel like there's enough strong personalities in the clubhouse that having one jerk shouldn't affect things too much.

 

[TF97]

So...Mat Latos is still a free agent....I know he's apparently a jerk, but that ceiling...

Could probably get him on a one year deal. I feel like there's enough strong personalities in the clubhouse that having one jerk shouldn't affect things too much.

I predicted that Pittsburgh would sign him and Searage would work his magic. Doesn't look to be the case now. However, I see him wanting a guaranteed rotation spot, which I would be uncomfortable with.

 

[Discoverer]

There's some causes for alarm with both.

Hanley's BB% was the lowest of his career, pull % the second lowest of his career, and soft contact % the highest of his career. Couple that with the fact that he's positionless, and yikes.

Sandoval; lowest BB%, highest K%, lowest iso, lowest pull %, lowest hard contact rate. Coupled with the worst defensive season of his career, and also yikes.

It's actually quite interesting just how generous steamer is to both considering it is the regression machine.

Them bouncing back next year IS regression.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Them bouncing back next year IS regression.

Projecting a 32 year old to have his second highest iso mark in five calendar years is not proper regression.

Ditto goes for Sandoval, who's iso and walk rate have steadily declined since 2012.

A lot of career noise in the steamer projections for both.

 

[Discoverer]

Projecting a 32 year old to have his second highest iso mark in five calendar years is not proper regression.

Ditto goes for Sandoval, who's iso and walk rate have steadily declined since 2012.

A lot of career noise in the steamer projections for both.

Not that I agree with steamer on that particular assessment, but I assume a major boost in ISO is primarily caused by Fenway Park rather than improvements by the players.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

one thing good for the Bluejays we love fastballs

 

[Eyedea]

The yankees have 2 old guys they rely in key roles - a 40yr old DH and a 35yr old 1B. the only others over 32 are a guy battling for the #5sp slot and a bench OF.

The Sox also have 2 key old guys - a 40yr old DH, as well as a 41yr old as their 2nd best reliver. Add in a 35yr old platoon catcher.

The yanks boast a young deep rotation, a ******** and young bullpen, and as deep a lineup as any team in baseball. They are even better this year than the very good team they were last year.

McCann will be 32, Headley will be 32, Gardner is 32, Beltran is 38 (and their starting RFer), and Ellsbury is 32. Why cutoff at that age when they are all clearly past their peak but heavily relied upon?

 

[Discoverer]

McCann will be 32, Headley will be 32, Gardner is 32, Beltran is 38 (and their starting RFer), and Ellsbury is 32. Why cutoff at that age when they are all clearly past their peak but heavily relied upon?

Yeah, and those guys aren't like Bautista and Edwin where they're still performing at or near their peak levels. They have way more red flags from both a health and performance standpoint.