I agree with this. The op also ignores injuries. I think it is much more likely that the canucks lose henrik and hamhuis (or two of any of their other top players) than suddenly being able to compete with the LAs and Chicagos of the league.
And again, realistically, we are a 25th place team hoping to get back to being a 15th place team or better right now. Whether you think it's a lock that we'll get there, that is the reality right now. You can't just jump the gun and say "we're a 15th place team, so we're 15 places away from being a 1st place team" before you even manage to actually look like a 15th place team! It makes no sense!
On paper, last year's team did not look much worse than this year's team (many would argue it looked better). If the injuries/other issues could happen last year, why is it a lock that it can't happen again? And even if they didn't, how can you be sure that that's a 10 spot jump? Especially taking into consideration that the players being relied on are still either staying in their prime or trending downwards and the fact that we still play in a devastating division (which may have been a bigger reason for our awful season than we're willing to admit).
Team A)
Sedin - Sedin - Jensen
Burrows - Kesler - Kassian
Higgins - Santorelli - Hansen
Booth - Richardson - Weise
Hamhuis - Garrison
Edler - Tanev
Stanton - Bieksa
Luongo
Lack
vs.
Team B)
Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Burrows - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Horvat - Hansen
Dorsett - Matthias - Richardson
Hamhuis - Tanev
Stanton - Bieksa
Edler - Sbisa
Miller
Lack
Not only is team A going to make a 10 spot jump from finishing 25th to 15th simply by using the nearly identical team B instead and hoping the same problems don't occur, apparently, in a league with 30 teams doing everything they can to try and win the cup, it's easier for this 25th, hopefully 15th place team (if everything goes well) to battle their way to a cup by outplaying all 29 other teams than to fall their way, ultimately from 25th to 30th, with any combination of things that could happen, like injuries, poor play, poor goaltending/defense, Kesler being a bigger hole than Bonino can fill, or another coaching adjustment issue.